Southeast of What? Reflections on SEALS\u27 Success

In epidemiologic studies, measurement error in dietary variables often attenuates association between dietary intake and disease occurrence. To adjust for the attenuation caused by error in dietary intake, regression calibration is commonly used. To apply regression calibration, unbiased reference measurements are required. Short-term reference measurements for foods that are not consumed daily contain excess zeroes that pose challenges in the calibration model. We adapted two-part regression calibration model, initially developed for multiple replicates of reference measurements per individual to a single-replicate setting. We showed how to handle excess zero reference measurements by two-step modeling approach, how to explore heteroscedasticity in the consumed amount with variance-mean graph, how to explore nonlinearity with the generalized additive modeling (GAM) and the empirical logit approaches, and how to select covariates in the calibration model. The performance of two-part calibration model was compared with the one-part counterpart. We used vegetable intake and mortality data from European Prospective Investigation on Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. In the EPIC, reference measurements were taken with 24-hour recalls. For each of the three vegetable subgroups assessed separately, correcting for error with an appropriately specified two-part calibration model resulted in about three fold increase in the strength of association with all-cause mortality, as measured by the log hazard ratio. Further found is that the standard way of including covariates in the calibration model can lead to over fitting the two-part calibration model. Moreover, the extent of adjusting for error is influenced by the number and forms of covariates in the calibration model. For episodically consumed foods, we advise researchers to pay special attention to response distribution, nonlinearity, and covariate inclusion in specifying the calibration model

Pre-hospital antibiotic treatment and mortality caused by invasive meningococcal disease, adjusting for indication bias

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Mortality from invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) has remained stable over the last thirty years and it is unclear whether pre-hospital antibiotherapy actually produces a decrease in this mortality. Our aim was to examine whether pre-hospital oral antibiotherapy reduces mortality from IMD, adjusting for indication bias.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A retrospective analysis was made of clinical reports of all patients (n = 848) diagnosed with IMD from 1995 to 2000 in Andalusia and the Canary Islands, Spain, and of the relationship between the use of pre-hospital oral antibiotherapy and mortality. Indication bias was controlled for by the propensity score technique, and a multivariate analysis was performed to determine the probability of each patient receiving antibiotics, according to the symptoms identified before admission. Data on in-hospital death, use of antibiotics and demographic variables were collected. A logistic regression analysis was then carried out, using death as the dependent variable, and pre-hospital antibiotic use, age, time from onset of symptoms to parenteral antibiotics and the propensity score as independent variables.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Data were recorded on 848 patients, 49 (5.72%) of whom died. Of the total number of patients, 226 had received oral antibiotics before admission, mainly betalactams during the previous 48 hours. After adjusting the association between the use of antibiotics and death for age, time between onset of symptoms and in-hospital antibiotic treatment, pre-hospital oral antibiotherapy remained a significant protective factor (Odds Ratio for death 0.37, 95% confidence interval 0.15–0.93).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Pre-hospital oral antibiotherapy appears to reduce IMD mortality.</p

Factors associated with prehospital delay in men and women with acute coronary syndrome

Fundamento. Identificar factores asociados a la demora prehospitalaria en personas que han tenido un síndrome coronario agudo Método. Se estudiaron mediante encuesta pacientes ingresados por síndrome coronario agudo en los 33 hospitales públicos andaluces, obteniéndose información sobre diferentes tipos de variables: socio-demográficas, contextuales, clínicas, percepción, actuaciones, y transporte. Se aplicaron modelos de regresión logística multivariante para calcular las odds ratio para la demora. Resultados. De los 1.416 pacientes en total, más de la mitad tuvieron una demora superior a la hora. Se asocia a la distancia al hospital y al medio de transporte: cuando el evento ocurre en la misma ciudad del hospital, utilizar medios propios aumenta la demora, odds ratio= 1,51 (1,02-2,23); si la distancia es entre 1-25 kilómetros, no hay una diferencia entre medios propios y ambulancia, odds ratio = 1,41 y odds ratio = 1,43 respectivamente; y cuando supera los25 kilómetros la ambulancia implica mayor demora, odds ratio = 3,13 y odds ratio = 2,20 respectivamente. Además, la sintomatología típica reduce la demora entre los hombres, pero la aumenta entre las mujeres. Asimismo, no darle importancia, esperar a la resolución de los síntomas, buscar atención sanitaria diferente a urgencias hospitalarias o al 061, tener antecedentes, encontrarse fuera de la vivienda habitual, y tener ingresos menores de 1.500 euros aumentan la demora. Tener síntomas respiratorios la reduce. Conclusiones. La demora prehospitalaria no se ajusta a las recomendaciones sanitarias, asociándose al entorno físico y social, a factores clínicos, y de percepción y actitudinales de los sujetos.Objective. To identify factors associated with prehospital delay in people who have had an acute coronary syndrome. Methods. Using a survey we studied patients admitted due to acute coronary syndrome in the 33 Andalusian public hospitals, obtaining information about different types of variables: socio-demographic, contextual, clinical, perception, action, and transportation. Multivariate logistic regression models were applied to calculate the odds ratios for the delay. Results. Of the 1,416 patients studied, more than half had a delay of more than an hour. This is associated to distance to the hospital and means of transport: when the event occurs in the same city, using the patient’s own means of transport increases the delay, odds ratio = 1.51 (1.02 to 2.23); if the distance is 1 to25 kilometers from the hospital, there is no difference between the patient’s own means of transport and an ambulance, odds ratio = 1.41 and odds ratio =1.43 respectively; and when the distance exceeds25 kilometers transport by ambulance means more delay, odds ratio = 3.13 and odds ratio = 2.20 respectively. Also, typical symptoms reduce delay amongst men but increase amongst women. Also, not caring and waiting for the resolution of symptoms, seeking health care other than a hospital or emergency services, previous clinical history, being away from home, and having an income under 1,500 euros, all increase delay. Conclusions. Prehospital delay times do not meet health recommendations. The physical and social environment, in addition to clinical, perceptual and attitudinal factors, are associated with this delay.Consejería de Salud (Expte.0079/2006); Agencia de Evaluación de Tecnologías Sanitarias-ISCIII (Expte. PI06/90450); CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública; Consejería de Economía y Hacienda de Andalucía, Fondos G+ 2010

Vitamin C transporter gene (SLC23A1 and SLC23A2) polymorphisms, plasma vitamin C levels, and gastric cancer risk in the EPIC cohort

Vitamin C is known to protect mucosal tissues from oxidative stress and inhibit nitrosamine formation in the stomach. High consumption of fruits, particularly citrus, and higher circulating vitamin C concentrations may be inversely associated with gastric cancer (GC) risk. We investigated 20 polymorphisms in vitamin C transporter genes SCL23A1 and SCL23A2 and GC risk in 365 cases and 1,284 controls nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. We also evaluated the association between these polymorphisms and baseline plasma vitamin C levels in a subset of participants. Four SNPs were predictors of plasma vitamin C levels (SLC23A1 rs11950646 and rs33972313; SLC23A2 rs6053005 and rs6133175) in multivariable linear regression models. One SNP (SLC23A2 rs6116569) was associated with GC risk, in particular non-cardia GC (OR = 1.63, 95 % CI = 1.11-2.39, based on 178 non-cardia cases), but this association was attenuated when plasma vitamin C was included in the logistic regression model. Haplotype analysis of SLC23A1 yielded no associations with GC. In SLC23A2, one haplotype was associated with both overall and non-cardia GC, another haplotype was associated with GC overall, and a third was associated with intestinal-type GC. Common variants in SLC23A1 and SLC23A2 may influence plasma vitamin C concentration independent of dietary intake, and variation in SLC23A2 may influence GC risk. Additional prospective studies in large populations and consortia are recommended. Investigation of variation in vitamin C transporter genes may shed light on the preventative properties of vitamin C in gastric carcinogenesis

Acrylamide and glycidamide hemoglobin adducts and epithelial ovarian cancer: a nested case-control study in nonsmoking postmenopausal women from the EPIC cohort

Background: Acrylamide was classified as 'probably carcinogenic to humans (group 2A)' by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) is the fourth cause of cancer mortality in women. Five epidemiological studies have evaluated the association between EOC risk and dietary acrylamide intake assessed using food frequency questionnaires, and one nested case-control study evaluated hemoglobin adducts of acrylamide (HbAA) and its metabolite glycidamide (HbGA) and EOC risk; the results of these studies were inconsistent. Methods: A nested case-control study in nonsmoking postmenopausal women (334 cases, 417 controls) was conducted within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. Unconditional logistic regression models were used to estimate ORs and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between HbAA, HbGA, HbAA+HbGA, and HbGA/HbAA and EOC and invasive serous EOC risk. Results: No overall associations were observed between biomarkers of acrylamide exposure analyzed in quintiles and EOC risk; however, positive associations were observed between some middle quintiles of HbGA and HbAA+HbGA. Elevated but non-statistically significant ORs for serous EOC were observed for HbGA and HbAA+HbGA (ORQ5vsQ1, 1.91; 95% CI, 0.96-3.81 and ORQ5vsQ1, 1.90; 95% CI, 0.94-3.83, respectively); however, no linear dose-response trends were observed. Conclusion: This EPIC nested case-control study failed to observe a clear association between biomarkers of acrylamide exposure and the risk of EOC or invasive serous EOC. Impact: It is unlikely that dietary acrylamide exposure increases ovarian cancer risk; however, additional studies with larger sample size should be performed to exclude any possible association with EOC risk

Adipose tissue concentrations of persistent organic pollutants and total cancer risk in an adult cohort from Southern Spain: Preliminary data from year 9 of the follow-up

There is an increasing trend in the incidence of cancer worldwide, and it has been accepted that environmental factors account for an important proportion of the global burden. The present paper reports preliminary findings on the influence of the historical exposure to a group of persistent organic pollutants on total cancer risk, at year 9 in the follow-up of a cohort from Southern Spain. A cohort of 368 participants (median age 51 years) was recruited in 2003. Their historical exposure was estimated by analyzing residues of persistent organic pollutants in adipose tissue. Estimation of cancer incidence was based on data from a population-based cancer registry. Statistical analyses were performed using multivariable Cox-regression models. In males, PCB 153 concentrations were positively associated with total cancer risk, with an adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) of 1.20 (1.01–1.41) for an increment of 100 ng/g lipid. Our preliminary findings suggest a potential relationship between the historical exposure to persistent organic pollutants and the risk of cancer in men. However, these results should be interpreted with caution and require verification during the future follow-up of this cohort.This study was supported in part by research grants from the Spanish Ministry of Health (FIS 02/974, EUS2008-03574), CIBER de Epidemiología; Junta de Andalucía (01/264, P09-CTS-5488 Project of Excellence, PI-0675-2010, and PI-0513-2012), and the Instituto de Salud Carlos III (FIS PI11/0610)

Circulating Osteopontin and Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development in a Large European Population.

We previously identified osteopontin (OPN) as a promising marker for the early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In this study, we investigated the association between prediagnostic circulating OPN levels and HCC incidence in a large population-based cohort. A nested case-control study was conducted within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. During a mean follow-up of 4.8 years, 100 HCC cases were identified. Each case was matched to two controls and OPN levels were measured in baseline plasma samples. Viral hepatitis, liver function, and α-fetoprotein (AFP) tests were also conducted. Conditional logistic regression models were used to calculate multivariable odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for OPN levels in relation to HCC. Receiver operating characteristics curves were constructed to determine the discriminatory accuracy of OPN alone or in combination with other liver biomarkers in the prediction of HCC. OPN levels were positively associated with HCC risk (per 10% increment, ORmultivariable = 1.30; 95% CI, 1.14-1.48). The association was stronger among cases diagnosed within 2 years of follow-up. Adding liver function tests to OPN improved the discriminatory performance for subjects who developed HCC (AUC = 0.86). For cases diagnosed within 2 years, the combination of OPN and AFP was best able to predict HCC risk (AUC = 0.88). The best predictive model for HCC in this low-risk population is OPN in combination with liver function tests. Within 2 years of diagnosis, the combination of OPN and AFP best predicted HCC development, suggesting that measuring OPN and AFP could identify high-risk groups independently of a liver disease diagnosis. Cancer Prev Res; 9(9); 758-65. ©2016 AACR.This work was supported by NIH R01 CA120719 to LB and by the French National Cancer Institute (Institut National du Cancer; INCA) grant number 2009-139 to MJ. The coordination of EPIC is financially supported by the European Commission (DG-SANCO); and the International Agency for Research on Cancer. The national cohorts are supported by Danish Cancer Society (Denmark); Ligue Contre le Cancer; Institut Gustave Roussy; Mutuelle Générale de l’Education Nationale; and Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM) (France); Deutsche Krebshilfe, Deutsches Krebsforschungszentrum (DKFZ); and Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany); Hellenic Health Foundation (Greece); Italian Association for Research on Cancer (AIRC); National Research Council; and AIRE-ONLUS Ragusa, AVIS Ragusa, Sicilian Government (Italy); Dutch Ministry of Public Health, Welfare and Sports (VWS); Netherlands Cancer Registry (NKR); LK Research Funds; Dutch Prevention Funds; Dutch ZON (Zorg Onderzoek Nederland); World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF); and Statistics Netherlands (the Netherlands); European Research Council (ERC) (grant number ERC-2009-AdG 232997) and Nordforsk; and Nordic Center of Excellence Programme on Food, Nutrition and Health (Norway); Health Research Fund (FIS); Regional Governments of Andalucía, Asturias, Basque Country, Murcia (No. 6236) and Navarra; and ISCIII RETIC (RD06/0020) (Spain); Swedish Cancer Society; Swedish Scientific Council; and Regional Government of Skåne and Västerbotten (Sweden); Cancer Research UK; Medical Research Council; Stroke Association; British Heart Foundation; Department of Health; Food Standards Agency; and Wellcome Trust (UK). Reagents for the hepatitis infection determinations were kindly provided by Abbott Diagnostics Division, Lyon, France.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the American Association for Cancer Research via http://dx.doi.org/10.1158/1940-6207.CAPR-15-043

Diet Quality Scores and Prediction of All-Cause, Cardiovascular and Cancer Mortality in a Pan-European Cohort Study.

Scores of overall diet quality have received increasing attention in relation to disease aetiology; however, their value in risk prediction has been little examined. The objective was to assess and compare the association and predictive performance of 10 diet quality scores on 10-year risk of all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality in 451,256 healthy participants to the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, followed-up for a median of 12.8y. All dietary scores studied showed significant inverse associations with all outcomes. The range of HRs (95% CI) in the top vs. lowest quartile of dietary scores in a composite model including non-invasive factors (age, sex, smoking, body mass index, education, physical activity and study centre) was 0.75 (0.72-0.79) to 0.88 (0.84-0.92) for all-cause, 0.76 (0.69-0.83) to 0.84 (0.76-0.92) for CVD and 0.78 (0.73-0.83) to 0.91 (0.85-0.97) for cancer mortality. Models with dietary scores alone showed low discrimination, but composite models also including age, sex and other non-invasive factors showed good discrimination and calibration, which varied little between different diet scores examined. Mean C-statistic of full models was 0.73, 0.80 and 0.71 for all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality. Dietary scores have poor predictive performance for 10-year mortality risk when used in isolation but display good predictive ability in combination with other non-invasive common risk factors.The coordination of EPIC is financially supported by the European Commission (DGSANCO) and the International Agency for Research on Cancer. The national cohorts are supported by Danish Cancer Society (Denmark); Ligue Contre le Cancer, Institut Gustave Roussy, Mutuelle Générale de l’Education Nationale, Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM) (France); German Cancer Aid, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), Deutsche Krebshilfe, Deutsches Krebsforschungszentrum and Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany); the Hellenic Health Foundation (Greece); Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro-AIRC-Italy and National Research Council (Italy); Dutch Ministry of Public Health, Welfare and Sports (VWS), Netherlands Cancer Registry (NKR), LK Research Funds, Dutch Prevention Funds, Dutch ZON (Zorg Onderzoek Nederland), World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF), Statistics Netherlands (The Netherlands); Health Research Fund (FIS), PI13/00061 to Granada, Regional Governments of Andalucía, Asturias, Basque Country, Murcia (no. 6236) and Navarra, ISCIII RETIC (RD06/0020) (Spain); Swedish Cancer Society, Swedish Research Council and County Councils of Skåne and Västerbotten (Sweden); Cancer Research UK (14136 to EPIC-Norfolk; C570/ A16491 and C8221/A19170 to EPIC-Oxford), Medical Research Council (1000143 to EPIC-Norfolk, MR/ M012190/1 to EPIC-Oxford) (United Kingdom).This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from the Public Library of Science via http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.015902

Iron Metabolism and Type 2 Diabetes Incidence

OBJECTIVE: Observational studies show an association between ferritin and type 2 diabetes (T2D), suggesting a role of high iron stores in T2D development. However, ferritin is influenced by factors other than iron stores, which is less the case for other biomarkers of iron metabolism. We investigated associations of ferritin, transferrin saturation (TSAT), serum iron, and transferrin with T2D incidence to clarify the role of iron in the pathogenesis of T2D. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-InterAct study includes 12,403 incident T2D cases and a representative subcohort of 16,154 individuals from a European cohort with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up. We studied the prospective association of ferritin, TSAT, serum iron, and transferrin with incident T2D in 11,052 cases and a random subcohort of 15,182 individuals and assessed whether these associations differed by subgroups of the population. RESULTS: Higher levels of ferritin and transferrin were associated with a higher risk of T2D (hazard ratio [HR] [95% CI] in men and women, respectively: 1.07 [1.01-1.12] and 1.12 [1.05-1.19] per 100 μg/L higher ferritin level; 1.11 [1.00-1.24] and 1.22 [1.12-1.33] per 0.5 g/L higher transferrin level) after adjustment for age, center, BMI, physical activity, smoking status, education, hs-CRP, alanine aminotransferase, and γ-glutamyl transferase. Elevated TSAT (≥45% vs. <45%) was associated with a lower risk of T2D in women (0.68 [0.54-0.86]) but was not statistically significantly associated in men (0.90 [0.75-1.08]). Serum iron was not associated with T2D. The association of ferritin with T2D was stronger among leaner individuals (Pinteraction < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: The pattern of association of TSAT and transferrin with T2D suggests that the underlying relationship between iron stores and T2D is more complex than the simple link suggested by the association of ferritin with T2D.We thank all EPIC participants and staff for their contribution to the study. We thank Nicola Kerrison (MRC Epidemiology Unit, Cambridge) for managing the data for the InterAct Project. We thank Dr Felix Day (MRC Epidemiology Unit, Cambridge) for assistance with figures. Funding for the InterAct project was provided by the EU FP6 programme (grant number LSHM_CT_2006_037197). In addition, InterAct investigators acknowledge funding from the following agencies: IS, JWJB and YTvdS: Verification of diabetes cases was additionally funded by NL Agency grant IGE05012 and an Incentive Grant from the Board of the UMC Utrecht (The Netherlands); HBBdM, AMWS and DLvdA: Dutch Ministry of Public Health, Welfare and Sports (VWS), Netherlands Cancer Registry (NKR), LK Research Funds, Dutch Prevention Funds, Dutch ZON (Zorg Onderzoek Nederland), World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF), Statistics Netherlands (The Netherlands); FLC: Cancer Research UK; PWF: Swedish Research Council, Novo nordisk, Swedish Heart Lung Foundation, Swedish Diabetes Association; JH, KO and AT: Danish Cancer Society; RK: Deutsche Krebshilfe; SP: Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro; JRQ: Asturias Regional Government; MT: Health Research Fund (FIS) of the Spanish Ministry of Health; the CIBER en Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Spain; Murcia Regional Government (Nº 6236); RT: AIRE-ONLUS Ragusa, AVIS-Ragusa, Sicilian Regional Government. Biomarker measurements in the EPIC-InterAct subcohort were partially funded by a grant from the UK Medical Research Council and British Heart Foundation (EPIC-Heart: G0800270). Clara Podmore is funded by the Wellcome Trust (097451/Z/11/Z).This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available at http://care.diabetesjournals.org/content/early/2016/01/29/dc15-0257.abstract

Trends in incidence, mortality and survival in women with breast cancer from 1985 to 2012 in Granada, Spain: a population-based study

The incidence of breast cancer has increased since the 1970s. Despite favorable trends in prognosis, the role of changes in clinical practice and the introduction of screening remain controversial. We examined breast cancer trends to shed light on their determinants Overall, age-adjusted (European Standard Population) incidence rates increased from 48.0 cases × 100,000 women in 1985–1989 to 83.4 in 2008–2012, with an annual percentage change (APC) of 2.5% (95%CI, 2.1–2.9) for 1985–2012. The greatest increase was in women younger than 40 years (APC 3.5, 95%CI, 2.4–4.8). For 2000–2012 the incidence trend increased only for stage I tumors (APC 3.8, 95%CI, 1.9–5.8). Overall age-adjusted breast cancer mortality decreased (APC − 1, 95%CI, − 1.4 – − 0.5), as did mortality in the 50–69 year age group (APC − 1.3, 95%CI, − 2.2 – − 0.4). Age-standardized net survival increased from 67.5% at 5 years in 1985–1989 to 83.7% in 2010–2012. All age groups younger than 70 years showed a similar evolution. Five-year net survival rates were 96.6% for patients with tumors diagnosed in stage I, 88.2% for stage II, 62.5% for stage III and 23.3% for stage IV. Breast cancer incidence is increasing – a reflection of the evolution of risk factors and increasing diagnostic pressure. After screening was introduced, the incidence of stage I tumors increased, with no decrease in the incidence of more advanced stages. Reductions were seen for overall mortality and mortality in the 50–69 year age group, but no changes were found after screening implementation. Survival trends have evolved favorably except for the 70–84 year age group and for metastatic tumors.This study was supported by a grant from the Acción Estratégica en Salud plan for the High Resolution Project on Prognosis and Care of Cancer Patients (No. AC14/00036) awarded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness and co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)