A Macro-econometric Model for Ireland

The Bank’s Macro-Econometric model has recently been revised. This paper outlines the context within which the model was initially built and the reasons for the revision and re-estimation. Compilation of the data used was a key component of the revision and this is described. The general structure of the model is outlined. Key equations are described and estimation issues noted. A discussion on simulating the model is provided along with results from sample simulations. The paper concludes with a discussion of how future work on the model might evolve.

The impact of the supersonic baryon-dark matter velocity difference on the z~20 21cm background

Recently, Tseliakhovich and Hirata (2010) showed that during the cosmic Dark Ages the baryons were typically moving supersonically with respect to the dark matter with a spatially variable Mach number. Such supersonic motion may source shocks that heat the Universe. This motion may also suppress star formation in the first halos. Even a small amount of coupling of the 21cm signal to this motion has the potential to vastly enhance the 21cm brightness temperature fluctuations at 15<z<40 as well as to imprint acoustic oscillations in this signal. We present estimates for the size of this coupling, which we calibrate with a suite of cosmological simulations. Our simulations, discussed in detail in a companion paper, are initialized to self-consistently account for gas pressure and the dark matter-baryon relative velocity, v_bc (in contrast to prior simulations). We find that the supersonic velocity difference dramatically suppresses structure formation at 10-100 comoving kpc scales, it sources shocks throughout the Universe, and it impacts the accretion of gas onto the first star-forming minihalos (even for halo masses as large as ~10^7 Msun). However, we find that the v_bc-sourced temperature fluctuations can contribute only as much as ~10% of the fluctuations in the 21cm signal. We do find that v_bc could source an O(1) component in the power spectrum of the 21cm signal via the X-ray (but not ultraviolet) backgrounds produced once the first stars formed. In a scenario in which ~10^6 Msun minihalos reheated the Universe via their X-ray backgrounds, we find that the pre-reionization 21cm signal would be larger than previously anticipated and exhibit significant acoustic features. We show that structure formation shocks are unable to heat the Universe sufficiently to erase a strong 21cm absorption trough at z ~ 20 that is found in most models of the sky-averaged 21cm intensity.Comment: 17 pages, 11 figures, accepted to ApJ; for movies see http://astro.berkeley.edu/~mmcquinn/firstligh

Evidence of Gunn-Peterson damping wings in high-z quasar spectra: strengthening the case for incomplete reionization

The spectra of several high-redshift (z>6) quasars have shown evidence for a Gunn-Peterson (GP) damping wing, indicating a substantial mean neutral hydrogen fraction (x_HI > 0.03) in the z ~ 6 intergalactic medium (IGM). However, previous analyses assumed that the IGM was uniformly ionized outside of the quasar's HII region. Here we relax this assumption and model patchy reionization scenarios for a range of IGM and quasar parameters. We quantify the impact of these differences on the inferred x_HI, by fitting the spectra of three quasars: SDSS J1148+5251 (z=6.419), J1030+0524 (z=6.308), and J1623+3112 (z=6.247). We find that the best-fit values of x_HI in the patchy models agree well with the uniform case. More importantly, we confirm that the observed spectra favor the presence of a GP damping wing, with peak likelihoods decreasing by factors of > few - 10 when the spectra are modeled without a damping wing. We also find that the Ly alpha absorption spectra, by themselves, cannot distinguish the damping wing in a relatively neutral IGM from a damping wing in a highly ionized IGM, caused either by an isolated neutral patch, or by a damped Ly alpha absorber (DLA). However, neutral patches in a highly ionized universe (x_HI < 0.01), and DLAs with the large required column densities (N_HI > few x 10^{20} cm^{-2}) are both rare. As a result, when we include reasonable prior probabilities for the line of sight (LOS) to intercept either a neutral patch or a DLA at the required distance of ~ 40-60 comoving Mpc away from the quasar, we find strong lower limits on the neutral fraction in the IGM, x_HI > 0.1 (at 95% confidence). This strengthens earlier claims that a substantial global fraction of hydrogen in the z~6 IGM is in neutral form.Comment: 18 pages, 7 figures, version accepted for publication in the MNRA

High Redshift Metals I.: The Decline of C IV at z > 5.3

We present the results from our search for C IV in the intergalactic medium at redshifts z=5.3-6.0. We have observed four z~6 QSOs with Keck/NIRSPEC in echelle mode. The data are the most sensitive yet taken to search for C IV at these redshifts, being 50% complete at column densities log(N_{CIV})=13.4. We find no C IV systems in any of the four sightlines. Taking into account our completeness, this translates into a decline in the number density of C IV absorbers in the range 13.0 < log(N_{CIV}) < 15.0 of at least a factor 4.4 (95% confidence) from z~2-4.5, where the number density is relatively constant. We use our lack of detections to set limits on the slope and normalization of the column density distribution at z=5.3-6.0. The rapid evolution of C IV at these redshifts suggests that the decrease in the number density may largely be due to ionization effects, in which case many of the metals in the z~4.5 IGM could already be in place at z~5.3, but in a lower ionization state. The lack of weak systems in our data, combined with the presence of strong C IV absorbers along at least one other sightline, further suggests that there may be large-scale variations in the enrichment and/or ionization state of the z~6 IGM, or that C IV absorbers at these redshifts are associated with rare, UV-bright star-forming galaxies.Comment: 11 pages, 8 figures, submitted to Ap

Properties of Nearby Starburst Galaxies Based on their Diffuse Gamma-ray Emission

The physical relationship between the far-infrared and radio fluxes of star forming galaxies has yet to be definitively determined. The favored interpretation, the "calorimeter model," requires that supernova generated cosmic ray (CR) electrons cool rapidly via synchrotron radiation. However, this cooling should steepen their radio spectra beyond what is observed, and so enhanced ionization losses at low energies from high gas densities are also required. Further, evaluating the minimum energy magnetic field strength with the traditional scaling of the synchrotron flux may underestimate the true value in massive starbursts if their magnetic energy density is comparable to the hydrostatic pressure of their disks. Gamma-ray spectra of starburst galaxies, combined with radio data, provide a less ambiguous estimate of these physical properties in starburst nuclei. While the radio flux is most sensitive to the magnetic field, the GeV gamma-ray spectrum normalization depends primarily on gas density. To this end, spectra above 100 MeV were constructed for two nearby starburst galaxies, NGC 253 and M82, using Fermi data. Their nuclear radio and far-infrared spectra from the literature are compared to new models of the steady-state CR distributions expected from starburst galaxies. Models with high magnetic fields, favoring galaxy calorimetry, are overall better fits to the observations. These solutions also imply relatively high densities and CR ionization rates, consistent with molecular cloud studies.Comment: Accepted to Ap

MARÍA DE MESA Y LÓPEZ [Material gráfico]

ÁLBUM FAMILIAR CASA DE COLÓNCopia digital. Madrid : Ministerio de Educación, Cultura y Deporte. Subdirección General de Coordinación Bibliotecaria, 201

Multicomponent and Variable Velocity Galactic Outflow in Cosmological Hydrodynamic Simulations

We develop a new ``Multicomponent and Variable Velocity'' (MVV) galactic outflow model for cosmological smoothed particle hydrodynamic (SPH) simulations. The MVV wind model reflects the fact that the wind material can arise from different phases in the interstellar medium (ISM), and the mass-loading factor in the MVV model is a function of galaxy stellar mass. We find that the simulation with the MVV outflow has the following characteristics: (i) the intergalactic medium (IGM) is hardly heated up, and the mean IGM temperature is almost the same as in the no-wind run; (ii) it has lower cosmic star formation rates (SFRs) compared to the no-wind run, but higher SFRs than the constant velocity wind run; (iii) it roughly agrees with the observed IGM metallicity, and roughly follows the observed evolution of Omega(Civ); (iv) the lower mass galaxies have larger mass-loading factors, and the low-mass end of galaxy stellar mass function is flatter than in the previous simulations. Therefore, the MVV outflow model mildly alleviates the problem of too steep galaxy stellar mass function seen in the previous SPH simulations. In summary, the new MVV outflow model shows reasonable agreement with observations, and gives better results than the constant velocity wind model.Comment: 16 pages, 12 figures, and 1 table, accepted for publication in MNRAS. A full resolution version is available at http://www.physics.unlv.edu/~jhchoi/astro-ph/vwind.pd

The low density and magnetization of a massive galaxy halo exposed by a fast radio burst

Present-day galaxies are surrounded by cool and enriched halo gas extending to hundreds of kiloparsecs. This halo gas is thought to be the dominant reservoir of material available to fuel future star formation, but direct constraints on its mass and physical properties have been difficult to obtain. We report the detection of a fast radio burst (FRB 181112) with arcsecond precision, which passes through the halo of a foreground galaxy. Analysis of the burst shows the halo gas has low net magnetization and turbulence. Our results imply predominantly diffuse gas in massive galactic halos, even those hosting active supermassive black holes, contrary to some previous results.Comment: Published in Science on 2019 September 26; Main (3 figures; 1 Table) + Supp (12 figures; 7 Tables

How old are the stars in the halo of NGC 5128 (Centaurus A)?

NGC 5128 (Centaurus A) is, at the distance of just 3.8 Mpc, the nearest easily observable giant elliptical galaxy. Therefore it is the best target to investigate the early star formation history of an elliptical galaxy. Our aims are to establish when the oldest stars formed in NGC 5128, and whether this galaxy formed stars over a long period. We compare simulated colour-magnitude diagrams with the deep ACS/HST photometry. We find that that the observed colour-magnitude diagram can be reproduced satisfactorily only by simulations that have the bulk of the stars with ages in excess of ~10 Gyr, and that the alpha-enhanced models fit the data much better than the solar scaled ones. Data are not consistent with extended star formation over more than 3-4 Gyr. Two burst models, with 70-80% of the stars formed 12+/-1 Gyr ago and with 20-30% younger contribution with 2-4 Gyr old stars provide the best agreement with the data. The old component spans the whole metallicity range of the models (Z=0.0001-0.04), while for the young component the best fitting models indicate higher minimum metallicity (~1/10 - 1/4 Z_sun). The bulk of the halo stars in NGC5128 must have formed at redshift z>=2 and the chemical enrichment was very fast, reaching solar or even twice-solar metallicity already for the ~11-12 Gyr old population. The minor young component, adding ~20-30% of the stars to the halo, and contributing less than 10% of the mass, may have resulted from a later star formation event ~2-4 Gyr ago. (abridged)Comment: 36 pages, 14 figures, accepted for publication in A&

Exploring the Universe with Metal-Poor Stars

The early chemical evolution of the Galaxy and the Universe is vital to our understanding of a host of astrophysical phenomena. Since the most metal-poor Galactic stars (with metallicities down to [Fe/H]\sim-5.5) are relics from the high-redshift Universe, they probe the chemical and dynamical conditions of the Milky Way and the origin and evolution of the elements through nucleosynthesis. They also provide constraints on the nature of the first stars, their associated supernovae and initial mass function, and early star and galaxy formation. The Milky Way's dwarf satellites contain a large fraction (~30%) of the known most metal-poor stars that have chemical abundances that closely resemble those of equivalent halo stars. This suggests that chemical evolution may be universal, at least at early times, and that it is driven by massive, energetic SNe. Some of these surviving, ultra-faint systems may show the signature of just one such PopIII star; they may even be surviving first galaxies. Early analogs of the surviving dwarfs may thus have played an important role in the assembly of the old Galactic halo whose formation can now be studied with stellar chemistry. Following the cosmic evolution of small halos in simulations of structure formation enables tracing the cosmological origin of the most metal-poor stars in the halo and dwarf galaxies. Together with future observations and additional modeling, many of these issues, including the reionization history of the Milky Way, may be constrained this way. The chapter concludes with an outlook about upcoming observational challenges and ways forward is to use metal-poor stars to constrain theoretical studies.Comment: 34 pages, 11 figures. Book chapter to appear in "The First Galaxies - Theoretical Predictions and Observational Clues", 2012 by Springer, eds. V. Bromm, B. Mobasher, T. Wiklin