Forecast dataset associated with “From Random Forests to Flood Forecasts: A Research to Operations Success Story”

Gridded forecasts from the Colorado State University-Machine Learning Probabilities (CSU-MLP) system for excessive rainfall prediction over the continental United States. The dataset includes probabilistic forecasts for days 1, 2, and 3 from the 2017, 2019, and 2020 versions of the CSU-MLP forecast system. For the day 2 and 3 forecasts, daily forecasts are included from 19 June 2018 through 15 October 2020; for day-1 forecasts a period from 15 March 2019 through 15 October 2020 is used.Because excessive rainfall is poorly defined and difficult to forecast, there is a need for tools for Weather Prediction Center (WPC) forecasters to use when generating Excessive Rainfall Outlooks (EROs), which are issued for the contiguous United States at lead times of 1--3 days. To address this need, a probabilistic forecast system for excessive rainfall, known as the Colorado State University-Machine Learning Probabilities (CSU-MLP) system, was developed based on ensemble reforecasts, precipitation observations, and machine learning algorithms, specifically random forests. The CSU-MLP forecasts were designed to emulate the EROs, with the goal being a tool that forecasters can use as a ``first guess'' in the ERO forecast process. Resulting from close collaboration between CSU and WPC and evaluation at the Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall experiment, iterative improvements were made to the forecast system and it was transitioned into operational use at WPC. Quantitative evaluation shows that the CSU-MLP forecasts are skillful and reliable, and they are now being used as a part of the WPC forecast process. This project represents an example of a successful research-to-operations transition, and highlights the potential for machine learning and other post-processing techniques to improve operational predictions.This research and operational transition was supported by NOAA Joint Technology Transfer Initiative grants NA16OAR4590238 and NA18OAR4590378

Improved Functional Outcome After Peripheral Nerve Stimulation of the Impaired Forelimb Post-stroke

Lack of blood flow to the brain, i.e., ischemic stroke, results in loss of nerve cells and therefore loss of function in the effected brain regions. There is no effective treatment to improve lost function except restoring blood flow within the first several hours. Rehabilitation strategies are widely used with limited success. The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of electrical stimulation on the impaired upper extremity to improve functional recovery after stroke. We developed a rodent model using an electrode cuff implant onto a single peripheral nerve (median nerve) of the paretic forelimb and applied daily electrical stimulation. The skilled forelimb reaching test was used to evaluate functional outcome after stroke and electrical stimulation. Anterograde axonal tracing from layer V pyramidal neurons with biotinylated dextran amine was done to evaluate the formation of new neuronal connections from the contralesional cortex to the deafferented spinal cord. Rats receiving electrical stimulation on the median nerve showed significant improvement in the skilled forelimb reaching test in comparison with stroke only and stroke with sham stimulation. Rats that received electrical stimulation also exhibited significant improvement in the latency to initiate adhesive removal from the impaired forelimb, indicating better sensory recovery. Furthermore, axonal tracing analysis showed a significant higher midline fiber crossing index in the cervical spinal cord of rats receiving electrical stimulation. Our results indicate that direct peripheral nerve stimulation leads to improved sensorimotor recovery in the stroke-impaired forelimb, and may be a useful approach to improve post-stroke deficits in human patients

A New Class of Changing-Look LINERs

We report the discovery of six active galactic nuclei (AGN) caught "turning on" during the first nine months of the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) survey. The host galaxies were classified as LINERs by weak narrow forbidden line emission in their archival SDSS spectra, and detected by ZTF as nuclear transients. In five of the cases, we found via follow-up spectroscopy that they had transformed into broad-line AGN, reminiscent of the changing-look LINER iPTF 16bco. In one case, ZTF18aajupnt/AT2018dyk, follow-up HST UV and ground-based optical spectra revealed the transformation into a narrow-line Seyfert 1 (NLS1) with strong [Fe VII, X, XIV] and He II 4686 coronal lines. Swift monitoring observations of this source reveal bright UV emission that tracks the optical flare, accompanied by a luminous soft X-ray flare that peaks ~60 days later. Spitzer follow-up observations also detect a luminous mid-infrared flare implying a large covering fraction of dust. Archival light curves of the entire sample from CRTS, ATLAS, and ASAS-SN constrain the onset of the optical nuclear flaring from a prolonged quiescent state. Here we present the systematic selection and follow-up of this new class of changing-look LINERs, compare their properties to previously reported changing-look Seyfert galaxies, and conclude that they are a unique class of transients well-suited to test the uncertain physical processes associated with the LINER accretion state.Comment: Submitted to ApJ, 31 pages, 17 Figures (excluding Appendix due to file size constraints but will be available in electronic version

The Fourth SeaWiFS HPLC Analysis Round-Robin Experiment (SeaHARRE-4)

Ten international laboratories specializing in the determination of marine pigment concentrations using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) were intercompared using in situ samples and a mixed pigment sample. Although prior Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) Round-Robin Experiment (SeaHARRE) activities conducted in open-ocean waters covered a wide dynamic range in productivity, and some of the samples were collected in the coastal zone, none of the activities involved exclusively coastal samples. Consequently, SeaHARRE-4 was organized and executed as a strictly coastal activity and the field samples were collected from primarily eutrophic waters within the coastal zone of Denmark. The more restrictive perspective limited the dynamic range in chlorophyll concentration to approximately one and a half orders of magnitude (previous activities covered more than two orders of magnitude). The method intercomparisons were used for the following objectives: a) estimate the uncertainties in quantitating individual pigments and higher-order variables formed from sums and ratios; b) confirm if the chlorophyll a accuracy requirements for ocean color validation activities (approximately 25%, although 15% would allow for algorithm refinement) can be met in coastal waters; c) establish the reduction in uncertainties as a result of applying QA procedures; d) show the importance of establishing a properly defined referencing system in the computation of uncertainties; e) quantify the analytical benefits of performance metrics, and f) demonstrate the utility of a laboratory mix in understanding method performance. In addition, the remote sensing requirements for the in situ determination of total chlorophyll a were investigated to determine whether or not the average uncertainty for this measurement is being satisfied

Search for the Higgs boson in events with missing transverse energy and b quark jets produced in proton-antiproton collisions at s**(1/2)=1.96 TeV

We search for the standard model Higgs boson produced in association with an electroweak vector boson in events with no identified charged leptons, large imbalance in transverse momentum, and two jets where at least one contains a secondary vertex consistent with the decay of b hadrons. We use ~1 fb-1 integrated luminosity of proton-antiproton collisions at s**(1/2)=1.96 TeV recorded by the CDF II experiment at the Tevatron. We find 268 (16) single (double) b-tagged candidate events, where 248 +/- 43 (14.4 +/- 2.7) are expected from standard model background processes. We place 95% confidence level upper limits on the Higgs boson production cross section for several Higgs boson masses ranging from 110 GeV/c2 to 140 GeV/c2. For a mass of 115 GeV/c2 the observed (expected) limit is 20.4 (14.2) times the standard model prediction.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

Top quark mass measurement using the template method at CDF

We present a measurement of the top quark mass in the lepton+jets and dilepton channels of $t\bar{t}$ decays using the template method. The data sample corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 5.6 fb$^{-1}$ of $p\bar{p}$ collisions at Tevatron with $\sqrt{s}=1.96$ TeV, collected with the CDF II detector. The measurement is performed by constructing templates of three kinematic variables in the lepton+jets and two kinematic variables in the dilepton channel. The variables are two reconstructed top quark masses from different jets-to-quarks combinations and the invariant mass of two jets from the $W$ decay in the lepton+jets channel, and a reconstructed top quark mass and $m_{T2}$, a variable related to the transverse mass in events with two missing particles, in the dilepton channel. The simultaneous fit of the templates from signal and background events in the lepton+jets and dilepton channels to the data yields a measured top quark mass of $M_{top} = 172.1 \pm 1.1(stat) \pm 0.9(syst).$Comment: submitted to Phys. Rev.

Measurement of the Helicity Fractions of W Bosons from Top Quark Decays Using Fully Reconstructed top-antitop Events with CDF II

We present a measurement of the fractions F_0 and F_+ of longitudinally polarized and right-handed W bosons in top quark decays using data collected with the CDF II detector. The data set used in the analysis corresponds to an integrated luminosity of approximately 318 pb -1. We select ttbar candidate events with one lepton, at least four jets, and missing transverse energy. Our helicity measurement uses the decay angle theta*, which is defined as the angle between the momentum of the charged lepton in the W boson rest frame and the W momentum in the top quark rest frame. The cos(theta*) distribution in the data is determined by full kinematic reconstruction of the ttbar candidates. We find F_0 = 0.85 +0.15 -0.22 (stat) +- 0.06 (syst) and F_+ = 0.05 +0.11 -0.05 (stat) +- 0.03 (syst), which is consistent with the standard model prediction. We set an upper limit on the fraction of right-handed W bosons of F_+ < 0.26 at the 95% confidence level.Comment: 11 pages, 2 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev.