What impacts of climate change on surface water in France by 2070? Results of the Explore2070 project in metropolitan France and overseas departments

International audienceLes questions relatives à la disponibilité et à la gestion de l'eau concentreront l'essentiel des mesures d'adaptation qui seront prises dans les décennies à venir pour faire face aux conséquences des changements climatiques. Ces mesures devront également prendre en compte les évolutions socio-économiques, en termes de démographie, d'aménagement du territoire et de politiques publiques (agriculture, énergie, transports, etc.). Il est dès lors primordial pour les décideurs et gestionnaires de quantifier les évolutions socio-économiques possibles, ainsi que le devenir de la ressource en eau et de sa variabilité temporelle et spatiale. C'est dans ce contexte que le projet Explore2070 avait pour objectif d'évaluer les impacts possibles des changements climatiques et socio-économiques futurs sur les grandes masses d'eau (surface, souterrain, littoral) et la biodiversité, en France métropolitaine et sur les départements d'Outre-mer (Guadeloupe, Guyane, Martinique et Réunion). Piloté par le Ministère de l'Ecologie (MEDDTL), ce projet a rassemblé de nombreux bureaux d'études et instituts de recherche pour dresser un panorama général des évolutions à attendre à l'horizon 2070. Par son ampleur et la variété de ses objectifs, ce projet doit permettre de répondre à de nombreuses questions des gestionnaires et de mieux apprécier les enjeux de ces évolutions. Dans la suite, nous présentons les travaux réalisés spécifiquement sur la quantification des évolutions des eaux de surface. Nous détaillerons dans ce qui suit la démarche générale de modélisation proposée, la nature des résultats obtenus, ainsi que la façon dont les incertitudes ont été quantifiées. Ce dernier point est indispensable pour aider à la prise de décision dans un avenir incertain. / Water availability and water management will be the focus of most of the adaptation measures that will be taken in the next decades to face the consequences of climate change. These measures will have to account for the socio-economic evolutions, in terms of population size, town and country planning, as well as public policies (agriculture, energy, transports, etc.). It is therefore essential for decision makers and managers to be able to quantify the possible socio-economic evolutions together with the evolution of water resources and their temporal and spatial variability. In this context, the Explore2070 project aimed at evaluating the possible impacts of future climate and socio-economic changes on water bodies (surface water, groundwater and coastal water) and biodiversity, in metropolitan France and overseas departments (Guadeloupe, Martinique, French Guyana, and Réunion Island). The project was managed by the French Ministry of Ecology (MEDDTL) and gathered several consultancies and research institutes to establish a general overview of the expected evolutions by 2070. Through both the extent and the variety of the project’s objectives, Explore2070 will provide answers to many questions raised by managers and better evaluate the stakes related to these evolutions. In the following, we present the work done specifically to quantify the evolution of surface water. The general modelling approach, the type of results and the way uncertainties were quantified are detailed. Uncertainty quantification is essential to help decision making in an uncertain future

On the visual detection of non-natural records in streamflow time series: challenges and impacts

Large datasets of long-term streamflow measurements are widely used to infer and model hydrological processes. However, streamflow measurements may suffer from what users can consider anomalies, i.e. non-natural records that may be erroneous streamflow values or anthropogenic influences that can lead to misinterpretation of actual hydrological processes. Since identifying anomalies is time consuming for humans, no study has investigated their proportion, temporal distribution, and influence on hydrological indicators over large datasets. This study summarizes the results of a large visual inspection campaign of 674 streamflow time series in France made by 43 evaluators, who were asked to identify anomalies falling under five categories, namely, linear interpolation, drops, noise, point anomalies, and other. We examined the evaluators' individual behaviour in terms of severity and agreement with other evaluators, as well as the temporal distributions of the anomalies and their influence on commonly used hydrological indicators. We found that inter-evaluator agreement was surprisingly low, with an average of 12 % of overlapping periods reported as anomalies. These anomalies were mostly identified as linear interpolation and noise, and they were more frequently reported during the low-flow periods in summer. The impact of cleaning data from the identified anomaly values was higher on low-flow indicators than on high-flow indicators, with change rates lower than 5 % most of the time. We conclude that the identification of anomalies in streamflow time series is highly dependent on the aims and skills of each evaluator, which raises questions about the best practices to adopt for data cleaning.</p

The Biodiversity of the Mediterranean Sea: Estimates, Patterns, and Threats

The Mediterranean Sea is a marine biodiversity hot spot. Here we combined an extensive literature analysis with expert opinions to update publicly available estimates of major taxa in this marine ecosystem and to revise and update several species lists. We also assessed overall spatial and temporal patterns of species diversity and identified major changes and threats. Our results listed approximately 17,000 marine species occurring in the Mediterranean Sea. However, our estimates of marine diversity are still incomplete as yet—undescribed species will be added in the future. Diversity for microbes is substantially underestimated, and the deep-sea areas and portions of the southern and eastern region are still poorly known. In addition, the invasion of alien species is a crucial factor that will continue to change the biodiversity of the Mediterranean, mainly in its eastern basin that can spread rapidly northwards and westwards due to the warming of the Mediterranean Sea. Spatial patterns showed a general decrease in biodiversity from northwestern to southeastern regions following a gradient of production, with some exceptions and caution due to gaps in our knowledge of the biota along the southern and eastern rims. Biodiversity was also generally higher in coastal areas and continental shelves, and decreases with depth. Temporal trends indicated that overexploitation and habitat loss have been the main human drivers of historical changes in biodiversity. At present, habitat loss and degradation, followed by fishing impacts, pollution, climate change, eutrophication, and the establishment of alien species are the most important threats and affect the greatest number of taxonomic groups. All these impacts are expected to grow in importance in the future, especially climate change and habitat degradation. The spatial identification of hot spots highlighted the ecological importance of most of the western Mediterranean shelves (and in particular, the Strait of Gibraltar and the adjacent Alboran Sea), western African coast, the Adriatic, and the Aegean Sea, which show high concentrations of endangered, threatened, or vulnerable species. The Levantine Basin, severely impacted by the invasion of species, is endangered as well

Crustal types and Tertiary tectonic evolution of the Alborán sea, western Mediterranean

Multichannel seismic reflection images across the transition between the east Alborán and the Algero-Balearic basins show how crustal thickness decreases from about 5 s two-way traveltime (TWTT, ∼15 km thick) in the west (east Alborán basin) to ∼2 s TWTT typical of oceanic crust (∼6 km thick) in the east (Algero-Balearic basin). We have differentiated three different crustal domains in this transition, mainly on the basis of crustal thickness and seismic signature. Boundaries between the three crustal domains are transitional and lack evidence for major faults. Tilted blocks related to extension are very scarce and all sampled basement outcrops are volcanic, suggesting a strong relationship between magmatism and crustal structure. Stratigraphic correlation of lithoseismic units with sedimentary units of southeastern Betic basins indicates that sediments onlap igneous basement approximately at 12 Ma in the eastern area and at 8 Ma in the western area. Linking seismic crustal structure with magmatic geochemical evidence suggests that the three differentiated crustal domains may represent, from west to east, thin continental crust modified by arc magmatism, magmatic-arc crust, and oceanic crust. Middle to late Miocene arc and oceanic crust formation in the east Alborán and Algero-Balearic basins, respectively, occurred during westward migration of the Gibraltar accretionary wedge and shortening in the Betic-Rif foreland basins. Arc magmatism and associated backarc oceanic crust formation were related to early to middle Miocene subduction and rollback of the Flysch Trough oceanic basement. Subduction of this narrow slab beneath the Alborán basin was coeval with collision of the Alborán domain with the Iberian and African passive margins and subsequent subcontinental-lithosphere edge delamination along the Betic-Rif margins

Faciès pré-évaporitiques dans le Givétien des bassins de Dinant et de Namur (Belgique, France)

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