Coupled climate–carbon cycle simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum atmospheric CO2 decrease using a large ensemble of modern plausible parameter sets

During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), atmospheric CO2 was around 90 ppmv lower than during the pre-industrial period. The reasons for this decrease are most often elucidated through factorial experiments testing the impact of individual mechanisms. Due to uncertainty in our understanding of the real system, however, the different models used to conduct the experiments inevitably take on different parameter values and different structures. In this paper, the objective is therefore to take an uncertainty-based approach to investigating the LGM CO2 drop by simulating it with a large ensemble of parameter sets, designed to allow for a wide range of large-scale feedback response strengths. Our aim is not to definitely explain the causes of the CO2 drop but rather explore the range of possible responses. We find that the LGM CO2 decrease tends to predominantly be associated with decreasing sea surface temperatures (SSTs), increasing sea ice area, a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a strengthening of the Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) cell in the Atlantic Ocean, a decreasing ocean biological productivity, an increasing CaCO3 weathering flux and an increasing deep-sea CaCO3 burial flux. The majority of our simulations also predict an increase in terrestrial carbon, coupled with a decrease in ocean and increase in lithospheric carbon. We attribute the increase in terrestrial carbon to a slower soil respiration rate, as well as the preservation rather than destruction of carbon by the LGM ice sheets. An initial comparison of these dominant changes with observations and paleoproxies other than carbon isotope and oxygen data (not evaluated directly in this study) suggests broad agreement. However, we advise more detailed comparisons in the future, and also note that, conceptually at least, our results can only be reconciled with carbon isotope and oxygen data if additional processes not included in our model are brought into play

EcoGEnIE 1.0: plankton ecology in the cGEnIE Earth system model

We present an extension to the carbon-centric Grid Enabled Integrated Earth system model (cGEnIE) that explicitly accounts for the growth and interaction of an arbitrary number of plankton species. The new package (ECOGEM) replaces the implicit, flux-based parameterisation of the plankton community currently employed, with explicitly resolved plankton populations and ecological dynamics. In ECOGEM, any number of plankton species, with ecophysiological traits (e.g. growth and grazing rates) assigned according to organism size and functional group (e.g. phytoplankton and zooplankton) can be incorporated at runtime. We illustrate the capability of the marine ecology enabled Earth system model (EcoGEnIE) by comparing results from one configuration of ECOGEM (with eight generic phytoplankton and zooplankton size classes) to climatological and seasonal observations. We find that the new ecological components of the model show reasonable agreement with both global-scale climatological and local-scale seasonal data. We also compare EcoGEnIE results to the existing biogeochemical incarnation of cGEnIE. We find that the resulting global-scale distributions of phosphate, iron, dissolved inorganic carbon, alkalinity, and oxygen are similar for both iterations of the model. A slight deterioration in some fields in EcoGEnIE (relative to the data) is observed, although we make no attempt to re-tune the overall marine cycling of carbon and nutrients here. The increased capabilities of EcoGEnIE in this regard will enable future exploration of the ecological community on much longer timescales than have previously been examined in global ocean ecosystem models and particularly for past climates and global biogeochemical cycles

How well do global ocean biogeochemistry models simulate dissolved iron distributions?

Numerical models of ocean biogeochemistry are relied upon to make projections about the impact of climate change on marine resources and test hypotheses regarding the drivers of past changes in climate and ecosystems. In large areas of the ocean, iron availability regulates the functioning of marine ecosystems and hence the ocean carbon cycle. Accordingly, our ability to quantify the drivers and impacts of fluctuations in ocean ecosystems and carbon cycling in space and time relies on first achieving an appropriate representation of the modern marine iron cycle in models. When the iron distributions from 13 global ocean biogeochemistry models are compared against the latest oceanic sections from the GEOTRACES program, we find that all models struggle to reproduce many aspects of the observed spatial patterns. Models that reflect the emerging evidence for multiple iron sources or subtleties of its internal cycling perform much better in capturing observed features than their simpler contemporaries, particularly in the ocean interior. We show that the substantial uncertainty in the input fluxes of iron results in a very wide range of residence times across models, which has implications for the response of ecosystems and global carbon cycling to perturbations. Given this large uncertainty, iron fertilization experiments based on any single current generation model should be interpreted with caution. Improvements to how such models represent iron scavenging and also biological cycling are needed to raise confidence in their projections of global biogeochemical change in the ocean

Unravelling the electronic structure and dynamics of an isolated molecular rotary motor in the gas-phase

Light-driven molecular motors derived from chiral overcrowded alkenes are an important class of compounds in which sequential photochemical and thermal rearrangements result in unidirectional rotation of one part of the molecule with respect to another. Here, we employ anion photoelectron spectroscopy to probe the electronic structure and dynamics of a unidirectional molecular rotary motor anion in the gas-phase and quantum chemistry calculations to guide the interpretation of our results. We find that following photoexcitation of the first electronically excited state, the molecule rotates around its axle and some population remains on the excited potential energy surface and some population undergoes internal conversion back to the electronic ground state. These observations are similar to those observed in time-resolved measurements of rotary molecular motors in solution. This work demonstrates the potential of anion photoelectron spectroscopy for studying the electronic structure and dynamics of molecular motors in the gas-phase, provides important benchmarks for theory and improves our fundamental understanding of light-activated molecular rotary motors, which can be used to inform the design of new photoactivated nanoscale devices

Long-term climate change commitment and reversibility: an EMIC intercomparison

This paper summarizes the results of an intercomparison project with Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) undertaken in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The focus is on long-term climate projections designed to: (i) quantify the climate change commitment of different radiative forcing trajectories, and (ii) explore the extent to which climate change is reversible on human timescales. All commitment simulations follow the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and their extensions to 2300. Most EMICs simulate substantial surface air temperature and thermosteric sea level rise commitment following stabilization of the atmospheric composition at year-2300 levels. The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is weakened temporarily and recovers to near pre-industrial values in most models for RCPs 2.6–6.0. The MOC weakening is more persistent for RCP 8.5. Elimination of anthropogenic CO2 emissions after 2300 results in slowly decreasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. At year 3000 atmospheric CO2 is still at more than half its year-2300 level in all EMICs for RCPs 4.5–8.5. Surface air temperature remains constant or decreases slightly and thermosteric sea level rise continues for centuries after elimination of CO2 emissions in all EMICs. Restoration of atmospheric CO2 from RCP to pre-industrial levels over 100–1000 years requires large artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere and does not result in the simultaneous return to pre-industrial climate conditions, as surface air temperature and sea level response exhibit a substantial time lag relative to atmospheric CO2

16S rRNA gene metabarcoding and TEM reveals different ecological strategies within the genus Neogloboquadrina (planktonic foraminifer)

CB was supported on a Daphne Jackson Fellowship sponsored by Natural Environmental Research Council (www.nerc.ac.uk) and the University of Edinburgh via the Daphne Jackson Trust. Field collections were supported by the National Science Foundation (www.nsf.gov) grant number OCE-1261519 to ADR and JSF.Uncovering the complexities of trophic and metabolic interactions among microorganisms is essential for the understanding of marine biogeochemical cycling and modelling climate-driven ecosystem shifts. High-throughput DNA sequencing methods provide valuable tools for examining these complex interactions, although this remains challenging, as many microorganisms are difficult to isolate, identify and culture. We use two species of planktonic foraminifera from the climatically susceptible, palaeoceanographically important genus Neogloboquadrina, as ideal test microorganisms for the application of 16S rRNA gene metabarcoding. Neogloboquadrina dutertrei and Neogloboquadrina incompta were collected from the California Current and subjected to either 16S rRNA gene metabarcoding, fluorescence microscopy, or transmission electron microscopy (TEM) to investigate their species-specific trophic interactions and potential symbiotic associations. 53–99% of 16S rRNA gene sequences recovered from two specimens of N. dutertrei were assigned to a single operational taxonomic unit (OTU) from a chloroplast of the phylum Stramenopile. TEM observations confirmed the presence of numerous intact coccoid algae within the host cell, consistent with algal symbionts. Based on sequence data and observed ultrastructure, we taxonomically assign the putative algal symbionts to Pelagophyceae and not Chrysophyceae, as previously reported in this species. In addition, our data shows that N. dutertrei feeds on protists within particulate organic matter (POM), but not on bacteria as a major food source. In total contrast, of OTUs recovered from three N. incompta specimens, 83–95% were assigned to bacterial classes Alteromonadales and Vibrionales of the order Gammaproteobacteria. TEM demonstrates that these bacteria are a food source, not putative symbionts. Contrary to the current view that non-spinose foraminifera are predominantly herbivorous, neither N. dutertrei nor N. incompta contained significant numbers of phytoplankton OTUs. We present an alternative view of their trophic interactions and discuss these results within the context of modelling global planktonic foraminiferal abundances in response to high-latitude climate change.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe