Representative Farms Economic Outlook for the December 2007 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline

The farm level economic impacts of the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 (2002 Farm Bill) on representative crop, dairy, and livestock operations are projected in this report. The analysis was conducted over the 2007-2012 planning horizon using FLIPSIM, AFPC’s whole farm simulation model. Data to simulate agricultural operations in the nation’s major production regions came from two sources: • Producer panel cooperation to develop economic information to describe and simulate representative crop, livestock, and dairy farms. • Projected prices, policy variables, and input inflation rates from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) December 2007 Baseline. The FLIPSIM policy simulation model incorporates the historical risk faced by agricultural producers for prices and production. This report presents the results of the December 2007 Baseline in a risk context using selected simulated probabilities and ranges for annual net cash farm income values. The probability of a farm experiencing a negative ending cash balance and the probability of a farm losing real net worth are included as indicators of the cash flow and equity risks facing producers through the year 2012. This report is organized into ten sections. The first section summarizes the process used to develop the representative farms and the key assumptions utilized for the farm level analysis. The second section summarizes the FAPRI December 2007 Baseline and the policy and price assumptions used for the representative farm analyses. The third through sixth sections present the results of the simulation analyses for feed grain, wheat, cotton, and rice farms. The seventh and eighth sections summarize simulation results for dairy and cattle. Two appendices constitute the final sections of the report. Appendix A provides tables to summarize the physical and financial characteristics for each of the representative farms. Appendix B provides the names of producers, land grant faculty, and industry leaders who cooperated in the panel interview process to develop the representative farms.

Economic immorality and social reformation in English popular preaching, 1585-1625

Popular preachers, often drawing crowds of hundreds, frequently attempted to reform the relationship between rich and poor in Elizabethan and Jacobean England. Rather than accepting economic oppression as part of the divinely-ordained social order, many tried to convince their audiences that the extortions of merchants, landlords and creditors were crimes which should be punished severely by England’s earthly authorities. This paper demonstrates how the language of popular homiletics opened up a space for plebeian action with concrete socioeconomic consequences. By analysing the connotative idiom of social complaint found in homilies and other widely-heard sermons, the important but historiographically neglected role of ‘godliness’ in the early modern ‘moral economy’ is revealed

Comparisons of the radial distributions of core-collapse supernovae with those of young and old stellar populations

We present observational constraints on the nature of core-collapse supernovae through an investigation into their radial distributions with respect to those of young and old stellar populations within their host galaxies, as traced by H-alpha emission and R-band light respectively. We discuss results and the implications they have on the nature of supernova progenitors, for a sample of 177 core-collapse supernovae. We find that the radial positions of the overall core-collapse population closely follow the radial distribution of H-alpha emission, implying that both are excellent tracers of star formation within galaxies. Within this overall distribution we find that there is a central deficit of SNII which is offset by a central excess of SNIb/c. This implies a strong metallicity dependence on the relative production of the two types, with SNIb/c arising from higher metallicity progenitors than SNII. Separating the SNIb/c into individual classes we find that a trend emerges in terms of progenitor metallicity going from SNII through SNIb to SNIc, with the latter arising from the highest metallicity progenitors.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRA

The Boundary Conditions of the Heliosphere: Photoionization Models Constrained by Interstellar and In Situ Data

The boundary conditions of the heliosphere are set by the ionization, density and composition of inflowing interstellar matter. Constraining the properties of the Local Interstellar Cloud (LIC) at the heliosphere requires radiative transfer ionization models. We model the background interstellar radiation field using observed stellar FUV and EUV emission and the diffuse soft X-ray background. We also model the emission from the boundary between the LIC and the hot Local Bubble (LB) plasma, assuming that the cloud is evaporating because of thermal conduction. We create a grid of models covering a plausible range of LIC and LB properties, and use the modeled radiation field as input to radiative transfer/thermal equilibrium calculations using the Cloudy code. Data from in situ observations of He^O, pickup ions and anomalous cosmic rays in the heliosphere, and absorption line measurements towards epsilon CMa were used to constrain the input parameters. A restricted range of assumed LIC HI column densities and LB plasma temperatures produce models that match all the observational constraints. The relative weakness of the constraints on N(HI) and T_h contrast with the narrow limits predicted for the H^O and electron density in the LIC at the Sun, n(H^0) = 0.19 - 0.20 cm^-3, and n(e) = 0.07 +/- 0.01 cm^-3. Derived abundances are mostly typical for low density gas, with sub-solar Mg, Si and Fe, possibly subsolar O and N, and S about solar; however C is supersolar. The interstellar gas at the Sun is warm, low density, and partially ionized, with n(H) = 0.23 - 0.27 cm^-3, T = 6300 K, X(H^+) ~ 0.2, and X(He^+) ~ 0.4. These results appear to be robust since acceptable models are found for substantially different input radiation fields. Our results favor low values for the reference solar abundances for the LIC composition.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figures, submitted to Astronomy & Astrophysics together with papers from the International Space Sciences Institute workshop on Interstellar Hydrogen in the Heliospher

Marine plastics threaten giant Atlantic Marine Protected Areas.

There has been a recent shift in global perception of plastics in the environment, resulting in a call for greater action. Science and the popular media have highlighted plastic as an increasing stressor [1,2]. Efforts have been made to confer protected status to some remote locations, forming some of the world's largest Marine Protected Areas, including several UK overseas territories. We assessed plastic at these remote Atlantic Marine Protected Areas, surveying the shore, sea surface, water column and seabed, and found drastic changes from 2013-2018. Working from the RRS James Clark Ross at Ascension, St. Helena, Tristan da Cunha, Gough and the Falkland Islands (Figure 1A), we showed that marine debris on beaches has increased more than 10 fold in the past decade. Sea surface plastics have also increased, with in-water plastics occurring at densities of 0.1 items m-3; plastics on seabeds were observed at ≤ 0.01 items m-2. For the first time, beach densities of plastics at remote South Atlantic sites approached those at industrialised North Atlantic sites. This increase even occurs hundreds of meters down on seamounts. We also investigated plastic incidence in 2,243 animals (comprising 26 species) across remote South Atlantic oceanic food webs, ranging from plankton to seabirds. We found that plastics had been ingested by primary consumers (zooplankton) to top predators (seabirds) at high rates. These findings suggest that MPA status will not mitigate the threat of plastic proliferation to this rich, unique and threatened biodiversity

The Multiplicity of Massive Stars: A High Angular Resolution Survey with the HST Fine Guidance Sensor

We present the results of an all-sky survey made with the Fine Guidance Sensor on Hubble Space Telescope to search for angularly resolved binary systems among the massive stars. The sample of 224 stars is comprised mainly of Galactic O- and B-type stars and Luminous Blue Variables, plus a few luminous stars in the Large Magellanic Cloud. The FGS TRANS mode observations are sensitive to detection of companions with an angular separation between 0."01 and 1."0 and brighter than $\triangle m = 5$. The FGS observations resolved 52 binary and 6 triple star systems and detected partially resolved binaries in 7 additional targets (43 of these are new detections). These numbers yield a companion detection frequency of 29% for the FGS survey. We also gathered literature results on the numbers of close spectroscopic binaries and wider astrometric binaries among the sample, and we present estimates of the frequency of multiple systems and the companion frequency for subsets of stars residing in clusters and associations, field stars, and runaway stars. These results confirm the high multiplicity fraction, especially among massive stars in clusters and associations. We show that the period distribution is approximately flat in increments of log P. We identify a number of systems of potential interest for long term orbital determinations, and we note the importance of some of these companions for the interpretation of the radial velocities and light curves of close binaries that have third companions.Comment: 37 pages, 4 figures, 5 tables; AJ, in press; Full version with extended tables and large figure set can be found: http://www.astro.umontreal.ca/~emily/fgs.pd

PG 1115+080: variations of the A2/A1 flux ratio and new values of the time delays

We report the results of our multicolor observations of PG 1115+080 with the 1.5-m telescope of the Maidanak Observatory (Uzbekistan, Central Asia) in 2001-2006. Monitoring data in filter R spanning the 2004, 2005 and 2006 seasons (76 data points) demonstrate distinct brightness variations of the source quasar with the total amplitude of almost 0.4 mag. Our R light curves have shown image C leading B by 16.4d and image (A1+A2) by 12d that is inconsistent with the previous estimates obtained by Schechter et al. in 1997 - 24.7d between B and C and 9.4d between (A1+A2) and C. The new values of time delays in PG 1115+080 must result in larger values for the Hubble constant, thus reducing difference between its estimates taken from the gravitational lenses and with other methods. Also, we analyzed variability of the A2/A1 flux ratio, as well as color changes in the archetypal "fold" lens PG 1115+080. We found the A1/A2 flux ratio to grow during 2001-2006 and to be larger at longer wavelengths. In particular, the A2/A1 flux ratio reached 0.85 in filter I in 2006. We also present evidence that both the A1 and A2 images might have undergone microlensing during 2001-2006, with the descending phase for A1 and initial phase for A2. We find that the A2/A1 flux ratio anomaly in PG 1115 can be well explained both by microlensing and by finite distance of the source quasar from the caustic fold.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figures, 8 tables, Accepted for publication in MNRA

Disequilibrium Carbon, Oxygen, and Nitrogen Chemistry in the Atmospheres of HD 189733b and HD 209458b

We have developed 1-D photochemical and thermochemical kinetics and diffusion models for the transiting exoplanets HD 189733b and HD 209458b to study the effects of disequilibrium chemistry on the atmospheric composition of "hot Jupiters." Here we investigate the coupled chemistry of neutral carbon, hydrogen, oxygen, and nitrogen species, and we compare the model results with existing transit and eclipse observations. We find that the vertical profiles of molecular constituents are significantly affected by transport-induced quenching and photochemistry, particularly on cooler HD 189733b; however, the warmer stratospheric temperatures on HD 209458b can help maintain thermochemical equilibrium and reduce the effects of disequilibrium chemistry. For both planets, the methane and ammonia mole fractions are found to be enhanced over their equilibrium values at pressures of a few bar to less than a mbar due to transport-induced quenching, but CH4 and NH3 are photochemically removed at higher altitudes. Atomic species, unsaturated hydrocarbons (particularly C2H2), some nitriles (particularly HCN), and radicals like OH, CH3, and NH2 are enhanced overequilibrium predictions because of quenching and photochemistry. In contrast, CO, H2O, N2, and CO2 more closely follow their equilibrium profiles, except at pressures < 1 microbar, where CO, H2O, and N2 are photochemically destroyed and CO2 is produced before its eventual high-altitude destruction. The enhanced abundances of HCN, CH4, and NH3 in particular are expected to affect the spectral signatures and thermal profiles HD 189733b and other, relatively cool, close-in transiting exoplanets. We examine the sensitivity of our results to the assumed temperature structure and eddy diffusion coefficientss and discuss further observational consequences of these models.Comment: 40 pages, 16 figures, accepted for publication in Astrophysical Journa

A Biased Review of Sociophysics

Various aspects of recent sociophysics research are shortly reviewed: Schelling model as an example for lack of interdisciplinary cooperation, opinion dynamics, combat, and citation statistics as an example for strong interdisciplinarity.Comment: 16 pages for J. Stat. Phys. including 2 figures and numerous reference

Infrared radiation from an extrasolar planet

A class of extrasolar giant planets - the so-called `hot Jupiters' - orbit within 0.05 AU of their primary stars. These planets should be hot and so emit detectable infrared radiation. The planet HD 209458b is an ideal candidate for the detection and characterization of this infrared light because it is eclipsed by the star. This planet has an anomalously large radius (1.35 times that of Jupiter), which may be the result of ongoing tidal dissipation, but this explanation requires a non-zero orbital eccentricity (~0.03), maintained by interaction with a hypothetical second planet. Here we report detection of infrared (24 micron) radiation from HD 209458b, by observing the decrement in flux during secondary eclipse, when the planet passes behind the star. The planet's 24 micron flux is 55 +/- 10 micro-Jy (1 sigma), with a brightness temperature of 1130 +/- 150 Kelvins, confirming the predicted heating by stellar irradiation. The secondary eclipse occurs at the midpoint between transits of the planet in front of the star (to within +/- 7 min, 1 sigma), which means that a dynamically significant orbital eccentricity is unlikely.Comment: to appear in Nature April 7, posted to Nature online March 23 (11 pages, 3 figures