Evidence-based planning and costing palliative care services for children : novel multi-method epidemiological and economic exemplar

Background: Children’s palliative care is a relatively new clinical specialty. Its nature is multi-dimensional and its delivery necessarily multi-professional. Numerous diverse public and not-for-profit organisations typically provide services and support. Because services are not centrally coordinated, they are provided in a manner that is inconsistent and incoherent. Since the first children’s hospice opened in 1982, the epidemiology of life-limiting conditions has changed with more children living longer, and many requiring transfer to adult services. Very little is known about the number of children living within any given geographical locality, costs of care, or experiences of children with ongoing palliative care needs and their families. We integrated evidence, and undertook and used novel methodological epidemiological work to develop the first evidence-based and costed commissioning exemplar. Methods: Multi-method epidemiological and economic exemplar from a health and not-for-profit organisation perspective, to estimate numbers of children under 19 years with life-limiting conditions, cost current services, determine child/parent care preferences, and cost choice of end-of-life care at home. Results: The exemplar locality (North Wales) had important gaps in service provision and the clinical network. The estimated annual total cost of current children’s palliative care was about £5.5 million; average annual care cost per child was £22,771 using 2007 prevalence estimates and £2,437- £11,045 using new 2012/13 population-based prevalence estimates. Using population-based prevalence, we estimate 2271 children with a life-limiting condition in the general exemplar population and around 501 children per year with ongoing palliative care needs in contact with hospital services. Around 24 children with a wide range of life-limiting conditions require end-of-life care per year. Choice of end-of-life care at home was requested, which is not currently universally available. We estimated a minimum (based on 1 week of end-of-life care) additional cost of £336,000 per year to provide end-of-life support at home. Were end-of-life care to span 4 weeks, the total annual additional costs increases to £536,500 (2010/11 prices). Conclusions: Findings make a significant contribution to population-based needs assessment and commissioning methodology in children’s palliative care. Further work is needed to determine with greater precision which children in the total population require access to services and when. Half of children who died 2002-7 did not have conditions that met the globally used children's palliative care condition categories, which need revision in light of findings

The future of evapotranspiration : global requirements for ecosystem functioning, carbon and climate feedbacks, agricultural management, and water resources

The fate of the terrestrial biosphere is highly uncertain given recent and projected changes in climate. This is especially acute for impacts associated with changes in drought frequency and intensity on the distribution and timing of water availability. The development of effective adaptation strategies for these emerging threats to food and water security are compromised by limitations in our understanding of how natural and managed ecosystems are responding to changing hydrological and climatological regimes. This information gap is exacerbated by insufficient monitoring capabilities from local to global scales. Here, we describe how evapotranspiration (ET) represents the key variable in linking ecosystem functioning, carbon and climate feedbacks, agricultural management, and water resources, and highlight both the outstanding science and applications questions and the actions, especially from a space-based perspective, necessary to advance them

Measurement of Jet Shapes in Photoproduction at HERA

The shape of jets produced in quasi-real photon-proton collisions at centre-of-mass energies in the range $134-277$ GeV has been measured using the hadronic energy flow. The measurement was done with the ZEUS detector at HERA. Jets are identified using a cone algorithm in the $\eta - \phi$ plane with a cone radius of one unit. Measured jet shapes both in inclusive jet and dijet production with transverse energies $E^{jet}_T>14$ GeV are presented. The jet shape broadens as the jet pseudorapidity ($\eta^{jet}$) increases and narrows as $E^{jet}_T$ increases. In dijet photoproduction, the jet shapes have been measured separately for samples dominated by resolved and by direct processes. Leading-logarithm parton-shower Monte Carlo calculations of resolved and direct processes describe well the measured jet shapes except for the inclusive production of jets with high $\eta^{jet}$ and low $E^{jet}_T$. The observed broadening of the jet shape as $\eta^{jet}$ increases is consistent with the predicted increase in the fraction of final state gluon jets.Comment: 29 pages including 9 figure

Deaths among children with life-limiting or life-threatening conditions in Wales:a full population cohort

OBJECTIVES: To describe trends in demographic and clinical characteristics of children with a life-limiting condition (LLC) who died in Wales. METHODS: Linked full population cohort observational study of all children and young people (CYP) aged 0-25 years old with an LLC, resident in Wales from 2003 to 2020. Deaths were identified using four data sources: death registries, congenital anomaly, inpatient and day case activity, and accident/emergency attendances. RESULTS: Of the 6828 recorded deaths, 39% (N=2633) had an LLC-related diagnosis. The proportion of LLC deaths increased from 36% to 42% from 2003 to 2008 to 2015to 2020, with 43% (1135/2633) of LLC-related deaths occurring among children aged up to a year old. Among 5-11 years old, 68% (276/406) had an LLC diagnosis on their death certificate. Of all deaths with an LLC-related diagnosis, 28% (738/2633) occurred in the most deprived quintile areas. Neurological conditions were the most common LLC diagnostic group (22%, 570/2633). Among those with an LLC, 63% (1654/2633) had the condition reported as cause of death ( Underlying: 39% (1017/2633); Related: 24% (637/2633)). CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of LLC-related deaths in Wales increased 6% from 2003 to 2020. LLC-related deaths accounted for nearly 40% of total deaths in CYP up to 25 years. One-third of these deaths did not mention a life-limiting diagnosis on the death certificate. Seventy per cent of deaths among the 5-11 age group had a life-limiting diagnosis present

Assessing the evolution of soil moisture and vegetation conditions during the 2012 United States flash drought

This study examines the evolution of several model-based and satellite-derived drought metrics sensitive to soil moisture and vegetation conditions during the extreme flash drought event that impacted major agricultural areas across the central U.S. during 2012. Standardized anomalies from the remote sensing based Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) and Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI) and soil moisture anomalies from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) are compared to the United States Drought Monitor (USDM), surface meteorological conditions, and crop and soil moisture data compiled by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). Overall, the results show that rapid decreases in the ESI and NLDAS anomalies often preceded drought intensification in the USDM by up to 6 wk depending on the region. Decreases in the ESI tended to occur up to several weeks before deteriorations were observed in the crop condition data sets. The NLDAS soil moisture anomalies were similar to those depicted in the NASS soil moisture data sets; however, some differences were noted in how each model responded to the changing drought conditions. The VegDRI anomalies tracked the evolution of the USDM drought depiction in regions with slow drought development, but lagged the USDM and other drought indicators when conditions were changing rapidly. Comparison to the crop condition data sets revealed that soybean conditions were most similar to ESI anomalies computed over short time periods (2–4 wk), whereas corn conditions were more closely related to longer-range (8–12 wk) ESI anomalies. Crop yield departures were consistent with the drought severity depicted by the ESI and to a lesser extent by the NLDAS and VegDRI data sets

Diamorphine pharmacokinetics and conversion factor estimates for intranasal diamorphine in paediatric breakthrough pain:systematic review

BACKGROUND: Intranasal diamorphine is a potential treatment for breakthrough pain but few paediatric data are available to assist dose estimation. AIM: To determine an intranasal diamorphine dose in children through an understanding of pharmacokinetics. DESIGN: A systematic review of the literature was undertaken to seek diamorphine pharmacokinetic parameters in neonates, children and adults. Parenteral and enteral diamorphine bioavailability were reviewed with respect to formation of the major metabolite, morphine. Clinical data quantifying equianalgesic effects of diamorphine and morphine were reviewed. REVIEW SOURCES: PubMed (1960-2020); EMBASE (1980-2020); IPA (1973-2020) and original human research studies that reported diacetylmorphine and metabolite after any dose or route of administration. RESULTS: The systematic review identified 19 studies: 16 in adults and 1 in children and 2 neonatal reports. Details of study participants were extracted. Age ranged from premature neonates to 67 years and weight 1.4-88 kg. Intranasal diamorphine bioavailability was predicted as 50%. The equianalgesic intravenous conversion ratio of morphine:diamorphine was 2:1. There was heterogeneity between pharmacokinetic parameter estimates attributed to routes of administration, lack of size standardisation, methodology and pharmacokinetic analysis. Estimates of the pharmacokinetic parameters clearance and volume of distribution were reduced in neonates. There were insufficient paediatric data to characterise clearance or volume maturation of either diamorphine or its metabolites. CONCLUSIONS: We estimate equianalgesic ratios of intravenous morphine:diamorphine 2:1, intravenous morphine:intranasal diamorphine 1:1 and oral morphine:intranasal diamorphine of 1:3. These ratios are based on adult literature, but are reasonable for deciding on an initial dose of 0.1 mg/kg in children 4-13 years

Measurement of the Diffractive Cross Section in Deep Inelastic Scattering using ZEUS 1994 Data

The DIS diffractive cross section, $d\sigma^{diff}_{\gamma^* p \to XN}/dM_X$, has been measured in the mass range $M_X < 15$ GeV for $\gamma^*p$ c.m. energies $60 < W < 200$ GeV and photon virtualities $Q^2 = 7$ to 140 GeV$^2$. For fixed $Q^2$ and $M_X$, the diffractive cross section rises rapidly with $W$, $d\sigma^{diff}_{\gamma^*p \to XN}(M_X,W,Q^2)/dM_X \propto W^{a^{diff}}$ with $a^{diff} = 0.507 \pm 0.034 (stat)^{+0.155}_{-0.046}(syst)$ corresponding to a $t$-averaged pomeron trajectory of \bar{\alphapom} = 1.127 \pm 0.009 (stat)^{+0.039}_{-0.012} (syst) which is larger than \bar{\alphapom} observed in hadron-hadron scattering. The $W$ dependence of the diffractive cross section is found to be the same as that of the total cross section for scattering of virtual photons on protons. The data are consistent with the assumption that the diffractive structure function $F^{D(3)}_2$ factorizes according to \xpom F^{D(3)}_2 (\xpom,\beta,Q^2) = (x_0/ \xpom)^n F^{D(2)}_2(\beta,Q^2). They are also consistent with QCD based models which incorporate factorization breaking. The rise of \xpom F^{D(3)}_2 with decreasing \xpom and the weak dependence of $F^{D(2)}_2$ on $Q^2$ suggest a substantial contribution from partonic interactions

Measurement of the F2 structure function in deep inelastic e+^{+}p scattering using 1994 data from the ZEUS detector at HERA

We present measurements of the structure function \Ft\ in e^+p scattering at HERA in the range 3.5\;\Gevsq < \qsd < 5000\;\Gevsq. A new reconstruction method has allowed a significant improvement in the resolution of the kinematic variables and an extension of the kinematic region covered by the experiment. At \qsd < 35 \;\Gevsq the range in x now spans 6.3\cdot 10^{-5} < x < 0.08 providing overlap with measurements from fixed target experiments. At values of Q^2 above 1000 GeV^2 the x range extends to 0.5. Systematic errors below 5\perc\ have been achieved for most of the kinematic urray, W

Spectrum and prevalence of genetic predisposition in medulloblastoma: a retrospective genetic study and prospective validation in a clinical trial cohort.

BACKGROUND: Medulloblastoma is associated with rare hereditary cancer predisposition syndromes; however, consensus medulloblastoma predisposition genes have not been defined and screening guidelines for genetic counselling and testing for paediatric patients are not available. We aimed to assess and define these genes to provide evidence for future screening guidelines. METHODS: In this international, multicentre study, we analysed patients with medulloblastoma from retrospective cohorts (International Cancer Genome Consortium [ICGC] PedBrain, Medulloblastoma Advanced Genomics International Consortium [MAGIC], and the CEFALO series) and from prospective cohorts from four clinical studies (SJMB03, SJMB12, SJYC07, and I-HIT-MED). Whole-genome sequences and exome sequences from blood and tumour samples were analysed for rare damaging germline mutations in cancer predisposition genes. DNA methylation profiling was done to determine consensus molecular subgroups: WNT (MBWNT), SHH (MBSHH), group 3 (MBGroup3), and group 4 (MBGroup4). Medulloblastoma predisposition genes were predicted on the basis of rare variant burden tests against controls without a cancer diagnosis from the Exome Aggregation Consortium (ExAC). Previously defined somatic mutational signatures were used to further classify medulloblastoma genomes into two groups, a clock-like group (signatures 1 and 5) and a homologous recombination repair deficiency-like group (signatures 3 and 8), and chromothripsis was investigated using previously established criteria. Progression-free survival and overall survival were modelled for patients with a genetic predisposition to medulloblastoma. FINDINGS: We included a total of 1022 patients with medulloblastoma from the retrospective cohorts (n=673) and the four prospective studies (n=349), from whom blood samples (n=1022) and tumour samples (n=800) were analysed for germline mutations in 110 cancer predisposition genes. In our rare variant burden analysis, we compared these against 53 105 sequenced controls from ExAC and identified APC, BRCA2, PALB2, PTCH1, SUFU, and TP53 as consensus medulloblastoma predisposition genes according to our rare variant burden analysis and estimated that germline mutations accounted for 6% of medulloblastoma diagnoses in the retrospective cohort. The prevalence of genetic predispositions differed between molecular subgroups in the retrospective cohort and was highest for patients in the MBSHH subgroup (20% in the retrospective cohort). These estimates were replicated in the prospective clinical cohort (germline mutations accounted for 5% of medulloblastoma diagnoses, with the highest prevalence [14%] in the MBSHH subgroup). Patients with germline APC mutations developed MBWNT and accounted for most (five [71%] of seven) cases of MBWNT that had no somatic CTNNB1 exon 3 mutations. Patients with germline mutations in SUFU and PTCH1 mostly developed infant MBSHH. Germline TP53 mutations presented only in childhood patients in the MBSHH subgroup and explained more than half (eight [57%] of 14) of all chromothripsis events in this subgroup. Germline mutations in PALB2 and BRCA2 were observed across the MBSHH, MBGroup3, and MBGroup4 molecular subgroups and were associated with mutational signatures typical of homologous recombination repair deficiency. In patients with a genetic predisposition to medulloblastoma, 5-year progression-free survival was 52% (95% CI 40-69) and 5-year overall survival was 65% (95% CI 52-81); these survival estimates differed significantly across patients with germline mutations in different medulloblastoma predisposition genes. INTERPRETATION: Genetic counselling and testing should be used as a standard-of-care procedure in patients with MBWNT and MBSHH because these patients have the highest prevalence of damaging germline mutations in known cancer predisposition genes. We propose criteria for routine genetic screening for patients with medulloblastoma based on clinical and molecular tumour characteristics. FUNDING: German Cancer Aid; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research; German Childhood Cancer Foundation (Deutsche Kinderkrebsstiftung); European Research Council; National Institutes of Health; Canadian Institutes for Health Research; German Cancer Research Center; St Jude Comprehensive Cancer Center; American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities; Swiss National Science Foundation; European Molecular Biology Organization; Cancer Research UK; Hertie Foundation; Alexander and Margaret Stewart Trust; V Foundation for Cancer Research; Sontag Foundation; Musicians Against Childhood Cancer; BC Cancer Foundation; Swedish Council for Health, Working Life and Welfare; Swedish Research Council; Swedish Cancer Society; the Swedish Radiation Protection Authority; Danish Strategic Research Council; Swiss Federal Office of Public Health; Swiss Research Foundation on Mobile Communication; Masaryk University; Ministry of Health of the Czech Republic; Research Council of Norway; Genome Canada; Genome BC; Terry Fox Research Institute; Ontario Institute for Cancer Research; Pediatric Oncology Group of Ontario; The Family of Kathleen Lorette and the Clark H Smith Brain Tumour Centre; Montreal Children's Hospital Foundation; The Hospital for Sick Children: Sonia and Arthur Labatt Brain Tumour Research Centre, Chief of Research Fund, Cancer Genetics Program, Garron Family Cancer Centre, MDT's Garron Family Endowment; BC Childhood Cancer Parents Association; Cure Search Foundation; Pediatric Brain Tumor Foundation; Brainchild; and the Government of Ontario