Changes to population-based emergence of climate change from CMIP5 to CMIP6

Abstract The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model ensemble projects climate change emerging soonest and most strongly at low latitudes, regardless of the emissions pathway taken. In terms of signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios of average annual temperatures, these models project earlier and stronger emergence under the Shared Socio-economic Pathways than the previous generation did under corresponding Representative Concentration Pathways. Spatial patterns of emergence also change between generations of models; under a high emissions scenario, mid-century S/N is lower than previous studies indicated in Central Africa, South Asia, and parts of South America, West Africa, East Asia, and Western Europe, but higher in most other populated areas. We show that these global and regional changes are caused by a combination of higher effective climate sensitivity in the CMIP6 ensemble, as well as changes to emissions pathways, component-wise effective radiative forcing, and region-scale climate responses between model generations. We also present the first population-weighted calculation of climate change emergence for the CMIP6 ensemble, quantifying the number of people exposed to increasing degrees of abnormal temperatures now and into the future. Our results confirm the expected inequity of climate change-related impacts in the decades between now and the 2050 target for net-zero emissions held by many countries. These findings underscore the importance of concurrent investments in both mitigation and adaptation.</jats:p

Macroevolutionary diversification of glands for chemical communication in squamate reptiles

Chemical communication plays a central role in social, sexual and ecological interactions among animals. However, the macroevolutionary diversification of traits responsible for chemical signaling remains fundamentally unknown. Most research investigating evolutionary diversification of glands responsible for the production of chemical signals has focused on arthropods, while its study among vertebrates remains neglected. Using a global-scale dataset covering > 80% (7,904 species) of the living diversity of lizards and snakes (squamates), we investigate rates, trajectories and phylogenetic patterns of diversification of their follicular glands for chemical communication. We observed these glands in 13.66% of species, that their expression has varying phylogenetic signal among lineages, and that the crown squamate ancestor lacked follicular glands, which therefore originated and diversified subsequently during their evolutionary history. Additionally, our findings challenge the longstanding view that within squamates the Iguania are visually oriented while Scleroglossa are chemically-oriented, given that Iguania doubles Scleroglossa in the frequency of glands. Our phylogenetic analyses identified stabilizing selection as the best model describing follicular gland diversification, and revealed high rates of disparity. We provide the first global-scale analysis investigating the diversification of one of the main forms of communication among reptiles, presenting a macroevolutionary angle to questions traditionally explored at microevolutionary scale

Convergence and divergence in the evolution of cat skulls: temporal and spatial patterns of morphological diversity

Background: Studies of biological shape evolution are greatly enhanced when framed in a phylogenetic perspective. Inclusion of fossils amplifies the scope of macroevolutionary research, offers a deep-time perspective on tempo and mode of radiations, and elucidates life-trait changes. We explore the evolution of skull shape in felids (cats) through morphometric analyses of linear variables, phylogenetic comparative methods, and a new cladistic study of saber-toothed cats. Methodology/Principal Findings: A new phylogenetic analysis supports the monophyly of saber-toothed cats (Machairodontinae) exclusive of Felinae and some basal felids, but does not support the monophyly of various sabertoothed tribes and genera. We quantified skull shape variation in 34 extant and 18 extinct species using size-adjusted linear variables. These distinguish taxonomic group membership with high accuracy. Patterns of morphospace occupation are consistent with previous analyses, for example, in showing a size gradient along the primary axis of shape variation and a separation between large and small-medium cats. By combining the new phylogeny with a molecular tree of extant Felinae, we built a chronophylomorphospace (a phylogeny superimposed onto a two-dimensional morphospace through time). The evolutionary history of cats was characterized by two major episodes of morphological divergence, one marking the separation between saber-toothed and modern cats, the other marking the split between large and small-medium cats. Conclusions/Significance: Ancestors of large cats in the ‘Panthera’ lineage tend to occupy, at a much later stage, morphospace regions previously occupied by saber-toothed cats. The latter radiated out into new morphospace regions peripheral to those of extant large cats. The separation between large and small-medium cats was marked by considerable morphologically divergent trajectories early in feline evolution. A chronophylomorphospace has wider applications in reconstructing temporal transitions across two-dimensional trait spaces, can be used in ecophenotypical and functional diversity studies, and may reveal novel patterns of morphospace occupation

The Molecular Phylogenetic Signature of Clades in Decline

Molecular phylogenies have been used to study the diversification of many clades. However, current methods for inferring diversification dynamics from molecular phylogenies ignore the possibility that clades may be decreasing in diversity, despite the fact that the fossil record shows this to be the case for many groups. Here we investigate the molecular phylogenetic signature of decreasing diversity using the most widely used statistic for inferring diversity dynamics from molecular phylogenies, the γ statistic. We show that if a clade is in decline its molecular phylogeny may show evidence of the decrease in the diversification rate that occurred between its diversification and decline phases. The ability to detect the change in diversification rate depends largely on the ratio of the speciation rates of the diversification and decline phases, the higher the ratio the stronger the signal of the change in diversification rate. Consequently, molecular phylogenies of clades in relative rapid decline do not carry a signature of their decreasing diversification. Further, the signal of the change in diversification rate, if present, declines as the diversity drop. Unfortunately, the molecular signature of clades in decline is the same as the signature produced by diversity dependent diversification. Given this similarity, and the inability of current methods to detect declining diversity, it is likely that some of the extant clades that show a decrease in diversification rate, currently interpreted as evidence for diversity dependent diversification, are in fact in decline. Unless methods can be developed that can discriminate between the different modes of diversification, specifically diversity dependent diversification and declining diversity, we will need the fossil record, or data from some other source, to distinguish between these very different diversity trajectories

Mega-evolutionary dynamics of the adaptive radiation of birds

The origin and expansion of biological diversity is regulated by both developmental trajectories and limits on available ecological niches. As lineages diversify, an early and often rapid phase of species and trait proliferation gives way to evolutionary slow- downs as new species pack into ever more densely occupied regions of ecological niche space. Small clades such as Darwin’s finches demonstrate that natural selection is the driving force of adaptive radiations, but how microevolutionary processes scale up to shape the expansion of phenotypic diversity over much longer evolutionary timescales is unclear. Here we address this problem on a global scale by analysing a crowd-sourced dataset of three-dimensional scanned bill morphology from more than 2,000 species. We find that bill diversity expanded early in extant avian evolutionary history, before transitioning to a phase dominated by packing of morphological space. However, this early phenotypic diversification is decoupled from temporal variation in evolutionary rate: rates of bill evolution vary among lineages but are comparatively stable through time. We find that rare, but major, discontinuities in phenotype emerge from rapid increases in rate along single branches, sometimes leading to depauperate clades with unusual bill morphologies. Despite these jumps between groups, the major axes of within-group bill-shape evolution are remarkably consistent across birds. We reveal that macroevolutionary processes underlying global-scale adaptive radiations support Darwinian and Simpsonian ideas of microevolution within adaptive zones and accelerated evolution between distinct adaptive peaks

Phylogenetic relationships of cone snails endemic to Cabo Verde based on mitochondrial genomes

Background: Due to their great species and ecological diversity as well as their capacity to produce hundreds of different toxins, cone snails are of interest to evolutionary biologists, pharmacologists and amateur naturalists alike. Taxonomic identification of cone snails still relies mostly on the shape, color, and banding patterns of the shell. However, these phenotypic traits are prone to homoplasy. Therefore, the consistent use of genetic data for species delimitation and phylogenetic inference in this apparently hyperdiverse group is largely wanting. Here, we reconstruct the phylogeny of the cones endemic to Cabo Verde archipelago, a well-known radiation of the group, using mitochondrial (mt) genomes. Results: The reconstructed phylogeny grouped the analyzed species into two main clades, one including Kalloconus from West Africa sister to Trovaoconus from Cabo Verde and the other with a paraphyletic Lautoconus due to the sister group relationship of Africonus from Cabo Verde and Lautoconus ventricosus from Mediterranean Sea and neighboring Atlantic Ocean to the exclusion of Lautoconus endemic to Senegal (plus Lautoconus guanche from Mauritania, Morocco, and Canary Islands). Within Trovaoconus, up to three main lineages could be distinguished. The clade of Africonus included four main lineages (named I to IV), each further subdivided into two monophyletic groups. The reconstructed phylogeny allowed inferring the evolution of the radula in the studied lineages as well as biogeographic patterns. The number of cone species endemic to Cabo Verde was revised under the light of sequence divergence data and the inferred phylogenetic relationships. Conclusions: The sequence divergence between continental members of the genus Kalloconus and island endemics ascribed to the genus Trovaoconus is low, prompting for synonymization of the latter. The genus Lautoconus is paraphyletic. Lautoconus ventricosus is the closest living sister group of genus Africonus. Diversification of Africonus was in allopatry due to the direct development nature of their larvae and mainly triggered by eustatic sea level changes during the Miocene-Pliocene. Our study confirms the diversity of cone endemic to Cabo Verde but significantly reduces the number of valid species. Applying a sequence divergence threshold, the number of valid species within the sampled Africonus is reduced to half.Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation [CGL2013-45211-C2-2-P, CGL2016-75255-C2-1-P, BES-2011-051469, BES-2014-069575, Doctorado Nacional-567]info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Unexpectedly rapid evolution of mandibular shape in hominins

Members of the hominins – namely the so-called ‘australopiths’ and the species of the genus Homo – are known to possess short and deep mandibles and relatively small incisors and canines. It is commonly assumed that this suite of traits evolved in early members of the clade in response to changing environmental conditions and increased consumption of though food items. With the emergence of Homo, the functional meaning of mandible shape variation is thought to have been weakened by technological advancements and (later) by the control over fire. In contrast to this expectation, we found that mandible shape evolution in hominins is exceptionally rapid as compared to any other primate clade, and that the direction and rate of shape change (from the ape ancestor) are no different between the australopiths and Homo. We deem several factors including the loss of honing complex, canine reduction, and the acquisition of different diets may have concurred in producing such surprisingly high evolutionary rates. This study reveals the evolution of mandibular shape in hominins has strong morpho-functional and ecological significance attached

Sex, Ecology and the Brain: Evolutionary Correlates of Brain Structure Volumes in Tanganyikan Cichlids

Analyses of the macroevolutionary correlates of brain structure volumes allow pinpointing of selective pressures influencing specific structures. Here we use a multiple regression framework, including phylogenetic information, to analyze brain structure evolution in 43 Tanganyikan cichlid species. We analyzed the effect of ecological and sexually selected traits for species averages, the effect of ecological traits for each sex separately and the influence of sexual selection on structure dimorphism. Our results indicate that both ecological and sexually selected traits have influenced brain structure evolution. The patterns observed in males and females generally followed those observed at the species level. Interestingly, our results suggest that strong sexual selection is associated with reduced structure volumes, since all correlations between sexually selected traits and structure volumes were negative and the only statistically significant association between sexual selection and structure dimorphism was also negative. Finally, we previously found that monoparental female care was associated with increased brain size. However, here cerebellum and hypothalamus volumes, after controlling for brain size, associated negatively with female-only care. Thus, in accord with the mosaic model of brain evolution, brain structure volumes may not respond proportionately to changes in brain size. Indeed selection favoring larger brains can simultaneously lead to a reduction in relative structure volumes

The Early Evolution of Biting–Chewing Performance in Hexapoda

Insects show a plethora of different mandible shapes. It was advocated that these mandible shapes are mainly a function of different feeding habits. This hypothesis was tested on a larger sampling of non-holometabolan biting–chewing insects with additional tests to understand the interplay of mandible function, feeding guild, and phylogeny. The results show that at the studied systematic level, variation in mandible biting–chewing effectivity is regulated to a large extent by phylogenetic history and the configuration of the mandible joints rather than the food preference of a given taxon. Additionally, lineages with multiple mandibular joints such as primary wingless hexapods show a wider functional space occupation of mandibular effectivity than dicondylic insects (= silverfish + winged insects) at significantly different evolutionary rates. The evolution and occupation of a comparably narrow functional performance space of dicondylic insects is surprising given the low effectivity values of this food uptake solution. Possible reasons for this relative evolutionary “stasis” are discussed

Functional Morphometric Analysis of the Furcula in Mesozoic Birds

The furcula displays enormous morphological and structural diversity. Acting as an important origin for flight muscles involved in the downstroke, the form of this element has been shown to vary with flight mode. This study seeks to clarify the strength of this form-function relationship through the use of eigenshape morphometric analysis coupled with recently developed phylogenetic comparative methods (PCMs), including phylogenetic Flexible Discriminant Analysis (pFDA). Additionally, the morphospace derived from the furculae of extant birds is used to shed light on possible flight adaptations of Mesozoic fossil taxa. While broad conclusions of earlier work are supported (U-shaped furculae are associated with soaring, strong anteroposterior curvature with wing-propelled diving), correlations between form and function do not appear to be so clear-cut, likely due to the significantly larger dataset and wider spectrum of flight modes sampled here. Interclavicular angle is an even more powerful discriminator of flight mode than curvature, and is positively correlated with body size. With the exception of the close relatives of modern birds, the ornithuromorphs, Mesozoic taxa tend to occupy unique regions of morphospace, and thus may have either evolved unfamiliar flight styles or have arrived at similar styles through divergent musculoskeletal configurations