Non-linear regression models for Approximate Bayesian Computation

Approximate Bayesian inference on the basis of summary statistics is well-suited to complex problems for which the likelihood is either mathematically or computationally intractable. However the methods that use rejection suffer from the curse of dimensionality when the number of summary statistics is increased. Here we propose a machine-learning approach to the estimation of the posterior density by introducing two innovations. The new method fits a nonlinear conditional heteroscedastic regression of the parameter on the summary statistics, and then adaptively improves estimation using importance sampling. The new algorithm is compared to the state-of-the-art approximate Bayesian methods, and achieves considerable reduction of the computational burden in two examples of inference in statistical genetics and in a queueing model.Comment: 4 figures; version 3 minor changes; to appear in Statistics and Computin

Molecular cloning and transcriptional regulation of ompT , a ToxR-repressed gene in Vibrio cholerae

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/72189/1/j.1365-2958.2000.01699.x.pd

Shock location and CME 3D reconstruction of a solar type II radio burst with LOFAR

Context. Type II radio bursts are evidence of shocks in the solar atmosphere and inner heliosphere that emit radio waves ranging from sub-meter to kilometer lengths. These shocks may be associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and reach speeds higher than the local magnetosonic speed. Radio imaging of decameter wavelengths (20–90 MHz) is now possible with the Low Frequency Array (LOFAR), opening a new radio window in which to study coronal shocks that leave the inner solar corona and enter the interplanetary medium and to understand their association with CMEs. Aims. To this end, we study a coronal shock associated with a CME and type II radio burst to determine the locations at which the radio emission is generated, and we investigate the origin of the band-splitting phenomenon. Methods. Thetype II shock source-positions and spectra were obtained using 91 simultaneous tied-array beams of LOFAR, and the CME was observed by the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and by the COR2A coronagraph of the SECCHI instruments on board the Solar Terrestrial Relation Observatory(STEREO). The 3D structure was inferred using triangulation of the coronographic observations. Coronal magnetic fields were obtained from a 3D magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) polytropic model using the photospheric fields measured by the Heliospheric Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamic Observatory (SDO) as lower boundary. Results. The type II radio source of the coronal shock observed between 50 and 70 MHz was found to be located at the expanding flank of the CME, where the shock geometry is quasi-perpendicular with θBn ~ 70°. The type II radio burst showed first and second harmonic emission; the second harmonic source was cospatial with the first harmonic source to within the observational uncertainty. This suggests that radio wave propagation does not alter the apparent location of the harmonic source. The sources of the two split bands were also found to be cospatial within the observational uncertainty, in agreement with the interpretation that split bands are simultaneous radio emission from upstream and downstream of the shock front. The fast magnetosonic Mach number derived from this interpretation was found to lie in the range 1.3–1.5. The fast magnetosonic Mach numbers derived from modelling the CME and the coronal magnetic field around the type II source were found to lie in the range 1.4–1.6

TRY plant trait database – enhanced coverage and open access

Plant traits—the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants—determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait‐based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits—almost complete coverage for ‘plant growth form’. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait–environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives

On the mechanisms governing gas penetration into a tokamak plasma during a massive gas injection

A new 1D radial fluid code, IMAGINE, is used to simulate the penetration of gas into a tokamak plasma during a massive gas injection (MGI). The main result is that the gas is in general strongly braked as it reaches the plasma, due to mechanisms related to charge exchange and (to a smaller extent) recombination. As a result, only a fraction of the gas penetrates into the plasma. Also, a shock wave is created in the gas which propagates away from the plasma, braking and compressing the incoming gas. Simulation results are quantitatively consistent, at least in terms of orders of magnitude, with experimental data for a D 2 MGI into a JET Ohmic plasma. Simulations of MGI into the background plasma surrounding a runaway electron beam show that if the background electron density is too high, the gas may not penetrate, suggesting a possible explanation for the recent results of Reux et al in JET (2015 Nucl. Fusion 55 093013)