11 research outputs found
Utilization of wrightia tinctoria nano seed fibers as a reinforcement in the preparation of epoxy-based composites
- Publication venue
- Centrum Badań i Innowacji Pro-Akademia
- Publication date
- 01/01/2022
- Field of study
Natural seed fiber reinforced composite materials are replacing many conventional ones because of their excellent properties, less weight, easy availability, etc. Composite materials are used in many areas because of their superior features. Mechanical property is one of the vital parameters for choosing the material. The current investigation has revealed an importance of recently well-known Wrightia tinctoria nano seed fibers (WTNSFs), which are extracted physically. Wrightia tinctoria nano seed fiber reinforced composite was prepared with the epoxy resin by hand layup method. Epoxy resin is easy to handle and available at low cost. Mechanical tests are conducted reinforced composites of plain epoxy and WTNSFs to obtain strength properties like tensile, flexural, impact. Water absorption tests also performed on composites. Here, the developed composites are easy to handle, offered economically, and used primarily in marine applications due to less water absorption and good wax content. A comprehensive description of different tests and the properties of WTNSFs are studied and compared with the other existing natural fibers. This work showed that 35% combination of WTNSFs reinforced epoxy matrix offers enhanced mechanical properties with minimum water absorption compared with plain epoxy composites
Measurements of scattering and absorption properties of surface aerosols at a semi-arid site, Anantapur
- Author
- Amato
- Anderson
- Anderson
- Andreae
- Arnott
- Babu
- Badrinath
- Balakrishnaiah
- Balakrishnaiah
- Baumgardner
- Clarke
- Concen
- Draxler
- Dubovik
- Dumka
- Eck
- Formenti
- G. Balakrishnaiah
- Giles
- Gopal
- Gopal
- He
- Hyvarinen
- IPCC: Climate change
- Jefferson
- K. Raghavendra Kumar
- K. Raja Obul Reddy
- K. Rama Gopal
- Kalafut-Pettibone
- Kim
- Kumar
- Lee
- Lyamani
- Lyamani
- M. Vasudeva Reddy
- Magi
- Marcq
- Monkkonen
- N. Siva Kumar Reddy
- Nair
- Niranjan
- P. Mallikarjuna Reddy
- Pandithurai
- Pandolfi
- Pey
- R.R. Reddy
- Ramachandran
- Reddy
- Reddy
- Russell
- S. Nazeer Hussain
- S. Pavan Kumari
- S. Suresh Babu
- S.Md. Arafath
- Sinha
- T. Chakradhar Rao
- T. Lokeswara Reddy
- Targino
- Vijayakumar
- Wang
- Weingartner
- Wu
- Xin
- Xu
- Xu
- Publication venue
- 'Elsevier BV'
- Publication date
- Field of study
Optimization techniques for machining operations: a retrospective research based on various mathematical models
- Author
- Publication venue
- 'Springer Science and Business Media LLC'
- Publication date
- Field of study
Association of Tomato leaf curl Joydebpur virus and a betasatellite with leaf curl disease of eggplant
- Author
- A. B. Rai
- AK Singh
- B. Mahesha
- C Ha
- C. N. Lakshminarayana Reddy
- CM Fauquet
- D Pratap
- D Pratap
- DH Huson
- DP Martin
- F Heyraud
- JA Khan
- JD Thompson
- JJ Doyle
- JK Brown
- K Saunders
- K Saunders
- K Tamura
- M Boulton
- M Padidam
- M. Krishna Reddy
- MK Singh
- MR Rojas
- N Kirthi
- P Gopal
- P Kumari
- P Kumari
- P Pandey
- P Raja
- P. Swarnalatha
- PN Sivalingam
- RV Chowda Reddy
- RW Briddon
- RW Briddon
- RW Briddon
- RW Briddon
- RW Briddon
- S Chakraborty
- S Paul
- S Saeed
- SE Bull
- SE Seal
- SG Lazarowitz
- SK Green
- SL Shih
- T Kon
- T Kon
- TA Hall
- V Venkataravanappa
- V Venkataravanappa
- V. Venkataravanappa
- X Cui
- X Cui
- XP Zhou
- Y Kumar
- Publication venue
- 'Springer Science and Business Media LLC'
- Publication date
- Field of study
Mapping the human genetic architecture of COVID-19
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- Abdullah T.
- Abe R.
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- Afilalo J.
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- Publication venue
- 'Springer Science and Business Media LLC'
- Publication date
- 01/01/2021
- Field of study
The genetic make-up of an individual contributes to the susceptibility and response to viral infection. Although environmental, clinical and social factors have a role in the chance of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 and the severity of COVID-191,2, host genetics may also be important. Identifying host-specific genetic factors may reveal biological mechanisms of therapeutic relevance and clarify causal relationships of modifiable environmental risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection and outcomes. We formed a global network of researchers to investigate the role of human genetics in SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 severity. Here we describe the results of three genome-wide association meta-analyses that consist of up to 49,562 patients with COVID-19 from 46 studies across 19 countries. We report 13 genome-wide significant loci that are associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection or severe manifestations of COVID-19. Several of these loci correspond to previously documented associations to lung or autoimmune and inflammatory diseases3–7. They also represent potentially actionable mechanisms in response to infection. Mendelian randomization analyses support a causal role for smoking and body-mass index for severe COVID-19 although not for type II diabetes. The identification of novel host genetic factors associated with COVID-19 was made possible by the community of human genetics researchers coming together to prioritize the sharing of data, results, resources and analytical frameworks. This working model of international collaboration underscores what is possible for future genetic discoveries in emerging pandemics, or indeed for any complex human disease
Role of nickel doping on structural, optical, magnetic properties and antibacterial activity of ZnO nanoparticles
- Author
- Ahmed
- Ahmed
- Arshad
- Ball
- Becker
- Brayner
- Chen
- Chen
- Coey
- Cong
- Cui
- Cui
- David Cozzoli
- Deka
- El-Hilo
- Fan
- Fu
- G. Ravi
- G. Vijayaprasath
- Gao
- Gao
- Gopal
- Guangqing Pei
- Haja Hameed
- Hong
- Iqbal
- Jagannatha Reddy
- Johnson
- Kaviya
- Kumar Singh
- Lee
- Letailleur
- Li
- Liu
- Liu
- Liu
- Mohapatra
- N.M. Prabhu
- Naji Aljawfi
- Ng
- Norberg
- Pandey
- Pandiyarajan
- Pearton
- R. Murugan
- Radovanovic
- Raja
- Ramachandran
- Rubinstein
- S. Palanisamy
- Salavati-Niasari
- Saleh
- Saravanan
- Schumm
- Senthilkumar
- Singhal
- Singhal
- Skorb
- Syahidah Sabri
- T. Mahalingam
- Tang
- Tong
- Ueda
- Vanheusden
- Vegard
- Vijayaprasath
- Vijayaprasath
- Viswanatha
- Wang
- Wang
- Wang
- Wibowo
- Wu
- Xai
- Xiong
- Xu
- Xu
- Y. Hayakawa
- Yanmei
- Yanmei
- Zhang
- Zhang
- Publication venue
- 'Elsevier BV'
- Publication date
- Field of study
Toxic effect of Atalantia monophylla essential oil on Callosobruchus maculatus and Sitophilus oryzae
- Author
- A Angioni
- AK Das
- Anonymous
- AO Kolawole
- AR Shakoori
- BD Siegfried
- BH Lee
- BJ Sampson
- C Regnault - Roger
- C Regnault-Roger
- C Regnault-Roger
- CH Bell
- DP Papachristos
- E Shaaya
- E Shaaya
- F Bakkali
- F Zacher
- G Nattudurai
- G Nattudurai
- Gopal Nattudurai
- H Abbasipour
- H Panda
- I Adel
- JJ Wang
- JL Zettler
- K Baskar
- K Baskar
- K Baskar
- K Baskar
- K Baskar
- K Baskar
- Kathirvelu Baskar
- KH Reddy
- KV Asperen
- L Nerio
- LES Jackai
- M Mahmoudv
- M Negahban
- M Negahban
- M Ozcan
- MA Seada
- MD Lopez
- MFA El-Aziz
- MFA El-Aziz
- Micheal Gabrial Paulraj
- MM Bradford
- MM Mahboubkar
- MQ Chaudhry
- MR Kanost
- N Raja
- N Sivagnaname
- N Zandi-Sohani
- N Zapata
- R Pant
- RK Upadhyay
- RK Upadhyay
- S Manimaran
- S Mukanganyama
- S Pethuan
- S Sankaranarayanan
- Savarimuthu Ignacimuthu
- SS Du
- SW Kim
- Veeramuthu Duraipandiyan
- VF Garry
- Villianur Ibrahim Hairul Islam
- WH Habig
- WSA Abbott
- Y Huang
- Publication venue
- 'Springer Science and Business Media LLC'
- Publication date
- Field of study
Suppressors of RNA silencing encoded by geminiviruses and associated DNA satellites
- Author
- A Bar-Ziv
- A Chatterjee
- A Mallory
- A Molnár
- A Srivastava
- A Verdel
- A Zrachya
- AC Mallory
- AJ Soitamo
- B Chattopadhyay
- B Wang
- C Castillo-González
- C Gutierrez
- C Llave
- C Zhang
- D Baulcombe
- D Trinks
- E Glick
- E Rodríguez-Negrete
- F Li
- FM Zerbini
- G Pruss
- H Wang
- HS Guo
- I Amin
- I Jupin
- J Jose
- J Stanley
- J Zhang
- JC Carrington
- JE Rigden
- JE Rigden
- K Kalantidis
- K Saunders
- L Hanley-Bowdoin
- L Hao
- L Wartig
- M Boulton
- M Matzke
- M Padidam
- M Yoshikawa
- M Zaratiegui
- MR Rojas
- MS Nawaz-ul-Rehman
- MT Ruiz
- O Borsani
- P Chellappan
- P Etessami
- P Gopal
- P Raja
- P Sharma
- P Sharma
- PN Sivalingam
- R Anandalakshmi
- R Vanitharani
- RC Buchmann
- RV Chowda-Reddy
- RW Briddon
- RW Briddon
- RW Briddon
- S Sunitha
- SA Simon
- SC Dogra
- SW Ding
- T Blevins
- T Csorba
- T Kon
- T Paprotka
- VN Fondong
- Wezel R Van
- Wezel R Van
- X Cui
- X Cui
- X Yang
- X Zhang
- Y Wang
- YZ Wen
- Z Zhang
- Publication venue
- 'Springer Science and Business Media LLC'
- Publication date
- Field of study
Mapping the human genetic architecture of COVID-19
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- Abdelrazik M
- Abdullah T
- Abe R
- Abe S
- Abecasis GR
- Abel L
- Abernathy C
- Abraheem A
- Abul-Husn NS
- Acosta-Herrera M
- Acquilini D
- Acquilini D
- Adachi T
- Adachi Y
- Adams C
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- Adeniji K
- Adra D
- Afifi N
- Afilalo J
- Afilalo M
- Afolabi D
- Afrasiabi Z
- Afset JE
- Agasou A
- Aghemo A
- Agranoff D
- Agrawal S
- Aguirre LA
- Agwuh K
- Ahmad HF
- Ahmad N
- Ahmed A
- Ahmed C
- Ahmed KA
- Ai M
- Ail D
- Akeroyd L
- Akhtar MN
- Akhtar S
- Akinkugbe O
- Aksentijevich A
- Al Thani A
- Al-Muftah W
- Al-Sarraj Y
- Alarcon C
- Alarcon-Riquelme ME
- Alasdair F
- Alaverdian D
- Alavere H
- Albertos R
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- Albrecht W
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- Albrich WC
- Aldera EL
- Aldridge J
- Alegria A
- Alex B
- Alexander P
- Alfonso J
- Algera AG
- Ali A
- Ali IMA
- Ali S
- Aliberti S
- Allan A
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- Alldis Z
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- Alvaro A
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- Amin V
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- Ampuero J
- Anan R
- Anania S
- Anastasescu E
- Anderson F
- Anderson J
- Anderson M
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- Anderson S
- Anderson S
- Anderson T
- Ando A
- Andolfo I
- Andrade V
- Andretta F
- Andreucci E
- Andreucci E
- Andrew A
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- Andrew G
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- Andrews SJ
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- Andrikopoulos P
- Anedda F
- Aneli S
- Anemoli V
- Angelini C
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- Antinori A
- Antoni MD
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- Asakura T
- Asano K
- Aschard H
- Ascolillo S
- Ashish A
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- Ashton L
- Ashworth M
- Asiimwe IG
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- Atanasovska B
- Atkinson D
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- Aucella F
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- Slawson N
- Slevin K
- Sloan B
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- Sloofman L
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- Smedley C
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- Takahashi K
- Takahashi K
- Takahashi K
- Takahashi M
- Takahashi M
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- Takaku Y
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- Taki R
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- Tanaka H
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- Tanigawa Y
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- Taniyama D
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- Tateishi T
- Tateno H
- Tatham K
- Tatham KC
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- Tellez L
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- Terron Arcos V
- Tetla D
- Teumer A
- Teunissen C
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- Thanasi M
- Thankachen M
- Thibeault C
- Thirlwall Y
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- Uffelmann E
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- Vertue M
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- Voide C
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- Von Frenckell C
- von Hohenstaufen K
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- Wiselka M
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- Witzke O
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- Wooton DG
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- Wyllie DH
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- Xue X
- Yadav A
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- Yamada M
- Yamada Y
- Yamagata K
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- Yang G
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- Yang Z
- Yaspan B
- Yasui Y
- Yates B
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- Yatomi M
- Ye C
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- Yermakovich D
- Yi X
- Yonekawa A
- Yoon H
- Yoon KJ
- Yoshida K
- Yoshida S
- Yoshida S
- Yoshida T
- Yoshihara T
- Yoshiya K
- Yoshiyama T
- Youlton N
- Younes SE
- Young P
- Yun N
- Zak A
- Zaki A
- Zambon M
- Zamikula J
- Zanella A
- Zanella I
- Zanelli G
- Zara F
- Zara F
- Zarate R
- Zarate R
- Zborowski AC
- Zeberg H
- Zechner M
- Zechner M
- Zguro K
- Zhai R
- Zhang JE
- Zhang M
- Zhao JH
- Zhen J
- Zheng C
- Zheng T
- Zhou W
- Zhou W
- Zhu W
- Zitter L
- Zlatopolsky M
- Zoller H
- Zollner S
- Zongo O
- zu Bentrup FM
- Zucchi P
- Zwinderman AHK
- Zyndorf M
- Publication venue
- Publication date
- 01/01/2021
- Field of study
The genetic make-up of an individual contributes to the susceptibility and response to viral infection. Although environmental, clinical and social factors have a role in the chance of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 and the severity of COVID-191,2, host genetics may also be important. Identifying host-specific genetic factors may reveal biological mechanisms of therapeutic relevance and clarify causal relationships of modifiable environmental risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection and outcomes. We formed a global network of researchers to investigate the role of human genetics in SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 severity. Here we describe the results of three genome-wide association meta-analyses that consist of up to 49,562 patients with COVID-19 from 46 studies across 19 countries. We report 13 genome-wide significant loci that are associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection or severe manifestations of COVID-19. Several of these loci correspond to previously documented associations to lung or autoimmune and inflammatory diseases3,4,5,6,7. They also represent potentially actionable mechanisms in response to infection. Mendelian randomization analyses support a causal role for smoking and body-mass index for severe COVID-19 although not for type II diabetes. The identification of novel host genetic factors associated with COVID-19 was made possible by the community of human genetics researchers coming together to prioritize the sharing of data, results, resources and analytical frameworks. This working model of international collaboration underscores what is possible for future genetic discoveries in emerging pandemics, or indeed for any complex human disease
Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
- Author
- Aali Amirali
- Abate Yohannes Habtegiorgis
- Abbasgholizadeh Rouzbeh
- Abbasi-Kangevari Mohsen
- Abbasian Mohammadreza
- Abbastabar Hedayat
- Abd ElHafeez Samar
- Abd-Elsalam Sherief
- Abdollahi Mohammad
- Abdollahifar Mohammad-Amin
- Abdoun Meriem
- Abdullahi Auwal
- Abebe Mesfin
- Abebe Samrawit Shawel
- Abiodun Olumide
- Abolhassani Hassan
- Abolmaali Meysam
- Abouzid Mohamed
- Aboye Girma Beressa
- Abreu Lucas Guimarães
- Abrha Woldu Aberhe
- Abrigo Michael R M
- Abtahi Dariush
- Abu-Gharbieh Eman
- Abu-Rmeileh Niveen ME
- Abualruz Hasan
- Abubakar Bilyaminu
- Adal Tadele Girum Girum
- Adane Mesafint Molla
- Adeagbo Oluwafemi Atanda Adeagbo
- Adedoyin Rufus Adesoji
- Adekanmbi Victor
- Aden Bashir
- Adepoju Abiola Victor
- Adetokunboh Olatunji O
- Adetunji Juliana Bunmi
- Adeyinka Daniel Adedayo
- Adeyomoye Olorunsola Israel
- Adnani Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah
- Adra Saryia
- Afolabi Rotimi Felix
- Afyouni Shadi
- Afzal Muhammad Sohail
- Afzal Saira
- Aghamiri Shahin
- Agodi Antonella
- Agyemang-Duah Williams
- Ahinkorah Bright Opoku
- Ahlstrom Austin J
- Ahmad Aqeel
- Ahmad Danish
- Ahmad Firdos
- Ahmad Muayyad M
- Ahmad Sajjad
- Ahmad Tauseef
- Ahmed Ali
- Ahmed Ayman
- Ahmed Haroon
- Ahmed Luai A
- Ahmed Meqdad Saleh
- Ahmed Syed Anees
- Ajami Marjan
- Aji Budi
- Akalu Gizachew Taddesse
- Akbarialiabad Hossein
- Akinyemi Rufus Olusola
- Akkaif Mohammed Ahmed
- Akkala Sreelatha
- Al Hamad Hanadi
- Al Hasan Syed Mahfuz
- Al Qadire Mohammad
- AL-Ahdal Tareq Mohammed Ali
- Al-Aly Ziyad
- Al-amer Rasmieh Mustafa
- Al-Eyadhy Ayman
- Al-Gheethi Adel Ali Saeed
- Al-Marwani Sabah
- Al-Mekhlafi Hesham M
- Al-Omari Basem
- Al-Raddadi Rajaa M
- Al-Sabah Salman Khalifah
- Al-Tawfiq Jaffar A
- Al-Worafi Yaser Mohammed
- Alalalmeh Samer O
- Alalwan Tariq A
- Alam Khurshid
- Alanezi Fahad Mashhour
- Alanzi Turki M
- Albakri Almaza
- Albashtawy Mohammed
- AlBataineh Mohammad T
- Alemi Hediyeh
- Alemi Sharifullah
- Alemu Yihun Mulugeta
- Alhabib Khalid F
- Alhajri Noora
- Alhalaiqa Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji
- Alhassan Robert Kaba
- Ali Abid
- Ali Beriwan Abdulqadir
- Ali Liaqat
- Ali Mohammed Usman
- Ali Rafat
- Ali Syed Shujait Shujait
- Alif Sheikh Mohammad
- Aligol Mohammad
- Alijanzadeh Mehran
- Aljasir Mohammad A M
- Aljunid Syed Mohamed
- Almazan Joseph Uy
- Almidani Omar
- Alomari Mahmoud A
- Alqahtani Jaber S
- Alqutaibi Ahmed Yaseen
- Altaf Awais
- Altirkawi Khalid A
- Aluh Deborah Oyine
- Alvi Farrukh Jawad
- Alvis-Guzman Nelson
- Alwafi Hassan
- Aly Hany
- Aly Safwat
- Alzoubi Karem H
- Ameyaw Edward Kwabena
- Amin Tarek Tawfik
- Amindarolzarbi Alireza
- Amini-Rarani Mostafa
- Amiri Sohrab
- Ampomah Irene Gyamfuah
- Amugsi Dickson A
- Amusa Ganiyu Adeniyi
- Ancuceanu Robert
- Anderlini Deanna
- Andrade Pedro Prata
- Andrei Catalina Liliana
- Andrei Tudorel
- Anil Abhishek
- Anil Sneha
- Ansar Adnan
- Ansari-Moghaddam Alireza
- Antony Catherine M
- Antriyandarti Ernoiz
- Anvari Saeid
- ANWAR SALEHA
- Anwer Razique
- Anyasodor Anayochukwu Edward
- Arabloo Jalal
- Arabzadeh Bahri Razman
- Arafa Elshaimaa A
- Arafat Mosab
- Aravkin Aleksandr Y
- Araújo Ana Margarida
- Aremu Abdulfatai
- Aripov Timur
- Arkew Mesay
- Armocida Benedetta
- Arooj Mahwish
- Artamonov Anton A
- Arulappan Judie
- Aruleba Raphael Taiwo
- Arumugam Ashokan
- Asadi-Lari Mohsen
- Asemi Zatollah
- Asgary Saeed
- Asghari-Jafarabadi Mohammad
- Asghariahmadabad Mona
- Ashemo Mubarek Yesse
- Ashraf Muhammad
- Ashraf Tahira
- Asika Marvellous O
- Athari Seyyed Shamsadin
- Atout Maha Moh'd Wahbi
- Atreya Alok
- Aujayeb Avinash
- Ausloos Marcel
- Avan Abolfazl
- Aweke Amlaku Mulat
- Ayele Getnet Melaku
- Ayyoubzadeh Seyed Mohammad
- Azadnajafabad Sina
- Azevedo Rui M S
- Azzam Ahmed Y
- Badar Muhammad
- Badiye Ashish D
- Baghdadi Soroush
- Bagheri Nasser
- Bagherieh Sara
- Bahmanziari Najmeh
- Bai Ruhai
- Baig Atif Amin
- Baker Jennifer L
- Bako Abdulaziz T
- Bakshi Ravleen Kaur
- Balasubramanian Madhan
- Baltatu Ovidiu Constantin
- Bam Kiran
- Banach Maciej
- Bandyopadhyay Soham
- Banik Biswajit
- Banik Palash Chandra
- Bansal Hansi
- Baran Mehmet Firat
- Barchitta Martina
- Bardhan Mainak
- Bardideh Erfan
- Barker-Collo Suzanne Lyn
- Barone-Adesi Francesco
- Barqawi Hiba Jawdat
- Barrow Amadou
- Barteit Sandra
- Basharat Zarrin
- Bashir Asma'u I J
- Bashiru Hameed Akande
- Basiru Afisu
- Basso João Diogo
- Basu Sanjay
- Batiha Abdul-Monim Mohammad
- Batra Kavita
- Baune Bernhard T
- Bayati Mohsen
- Begum Tahmina
- Behboudi Emad
- Behnoush Amir Hossein
- Beiranvand Maryam
- Bejarano Ramirez Diana Fernanda
- Bekele Alehegn
- Belay Sefealem Assefa
- Belgaumi Uzma Iqbal
- Bell Michelle L
- Bello Olorunjuwon Omolaja
- Beloukas Apostolos
- Bensenor Isabela M
- Berezvai Zombor
- Berhie Alemshet Yirga
- Bermudez Amiel Nazer C
- Bettencourt Paulo J G
- Bhagavathula Akshaya Srikanth
- Bhardwaj Nikha
- Bhardwaj Pankaj
- Bhardwaj Prarthna V
- Bhaskar Sonu
- Bhat Vivek
- Bhatti Gurjit Kaur
- Bhatti Jasvinder Singh
- Bhatti Manpreet S
- Bhatti Rajbir
- Biondi Antonio
- Bisignano Catherine
- Biswas Atanu
- Biswas Raaj Kishore
- Bitra Veera R
- Bjørge Tone
- Bliss Elye
- Boachie Micheal Kofi
- Bobirca Anca Vasilica
- Bodolica Virginia
- Bodunrin Aadam Olalekan
- Bogale Eyob Ketema
- Bogale Kassawmar Angaw
- Bonakdar Hashemi Milad
- Bora Basara Berrak
- Bouaoud Souad
- Braithwaite Dejana
- Brauer Michael
- Breitborde Nicholas J K
- Bryazka Dana
- Bulamu Norma B
- Buonsenso Danilo
- Burkart Katrin
- Burns Richard A
- Bustanji Yasser
- Butt Nadeem Shafique
- Butt Zahid A
- Bärnighausen Till Winfried
- Caetano dos Santos Florentino Luciano
- Calina Daniela
- Campos-Nonato Ismael R
- Cao Fan
- Cao Shujin
- Capodici Angelo
- Carreras Giulia
- Carugno Andrea
- Castañeda-Orjuela Carlos A
- Castelpietra Giulio
- Cattaruzza Maria Sofia
- Caye Arthur
- Cegolon Luca
- Cembranel Francieli
- Cerin Ester
- Chadwick Joshua
- Chahine Yaacoub
- Chakraborty Chiranjib
- Chalek Julian
- Chan Jeffrey Shi Kai
- Charalampous Periklis
- Chattu Vijay Kumar
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- Shool Sina
- Shorofi Seyed Afshin
- Shuja Kanwar Hamza
- Shuval Kerem
- Siddig Emmanuel Edwar
- Silva João Pedro
- Silva Luís Manuel Lopes Rodrigues
- Silva Soraia
- Simonetti Biagio
- Singal Anjali
- Singh Abhinav
- Singh Balbir Bagicha
- Singh Jasvinder A
- Siraj Md Shahjahan
- Smith Amanda E
- Smith Georgia
- Socea Bogdan
- Sokhan Anton
- Solanki Ranjan
- Solanki Shipra
- Soleimani Hamidreza
- Soliman Sameh S M
- Solomon Yonatan
- Song Yimeng
- Sorensen Reed J D
- Spartalis Michael
- Sreeramareddy Chandrashekhar T
- Srivastava Vijay Kumar
- Stanikzai Muhammad Haroon
- Starodubov Vladimir I
- Starodubova Antonina V
- Stefan Simona Cătălina
- Steiropoulos Paschalis
- Stokes Mark A
- Subramaniyan Vetriselvan
- Suleman Muhammad
- Suliankatchi Abdulkader Rizwan
- Sultana Abida
- Sun Jing
- Swain Chandan Kumar
- Sykes Bryan L
- Szarpak Lukasz
- Szeto Mindy D
- Szócska Miklós
- Tabaee Damavandi Payam
- Tabarés-Seisdedos Rafael
- Tabatabaei Malazy Ozra
- Tabatabaeizadeh Seyed-Amir
- Tabatabai Shima
- Tabb Karen M
- Tabish Mohammad
- Taheri Soodejani Moslem
- Taiba Jabeen
- Tajbakhsh Ardeshir
- Talaat Iman M
- Talukder Ashis
- Tampa Mircea
- Tamuzi Jacques Lukenze
- Tan Ker-Kan
- Tang Haosu
- Tareke Derbie Alemu DA
- Tariku Mengistie Kassahun
- Tat Vivian Y
- Tavangar Seyed Mohammad
- Teimoori Mojtaba
- Temsah Mohamad-Hani
- Temsah Reem Mohamad Hani
- Teramoto Masayuki
- Terefa Dufera Rikitu
- Tesler Riki
- Teye-Kwadjo Enoch
- Thakur Ramna
- Thangaraju Pugazhenthan
- Thankappan Kavumpurathu Raman
- Thapar Rekha
- Tharwat Samar
- Thayakaran Rasiah
- Thomas Nihal
- Tichopad Ales
- Ticoalu Jansje Henny Vera
- Tiruye Tenaw Yimer
- Titova Mariya Vladimirovna
- Tonelli Marcello
- Tovani-Palone Marcos Roberto
- Traini Eugenio
- Tran Jasmine T
- Tran Nghia Minh
- Trihandini Indang
- Tromans Samuel Joseph
- Truyen Thien Tan Tri Tai
- Tsatsakis Aristidis
- Tsermpini Evangelia Eirini
- Tumurkhuu Munkhtuya
- Tyrovolas Stefanos
- Uddin Sayed Mohammad Nazim
- Udoakang Aniefiok John
- Udoh Arit
- Ullah Atta
- Ullah Saeed
- Ullah Sana
- Umakanthan Srikanth
- Umeokonkwo Chukwuma David
- Unim Brigid
- Unnikrishnan Bhaskaran
- Upadhyay Era
- Usman Jibrin Sammani
- Vacante Marco
- Vahabi Seyed Mohammad
- Vaithinathan Asokan Govindaraj
- Valizadeh Rohollah
- Van den Eynde Jef
- Varavikova Elena
- Varga Orsolya
- Vart Priya
- Varthya Shoban Babu
- Vasankari Tommi Juhani
- Vellingiri Balachandar
- Venugopal Deneshkumar
- Verghese Nicholas Alexander
- Verma Madhur
- Veroux Massimiliano
- Verras Georgios-Ioannis
- Vervoort Dominique
- Villafañe Jorge Hugo
- Vinayak Manish
- Violante Francesco S
- Vishwakarma Mukesh
- Vladimirov Sergey Konstantinovitch
- Vlassov Vasily
- Vo Bay
- Vollset Stein Emil
- Volovat Simona Ruxandra
- Vos Theo
- Vujcic Isidora S
- Wafa Hatem A
- Waheed Yasir
- Wakwoya Elias Bekele
- Wang Cong
- Wang Denny
- Wang Fang
- Wang Shu
- Wang Yanzhong
- Wang Yuan-Pang
- Ward Paul
- Wassie Emebet Gashaw
- Watson Stefanie
- Weaver Marcia R
- Weerakoon Kosala Gayan
- Weiss Daniel J
- Wells Katherine M
- Wen Yi Feng
- Westerman Ronny
- Wiangkham Taweewat
- Wickramasinghe Dakshitha Praneeth
- Wickramasinghe Nuwan Darshana
- Willeit Peter
- Wondimagegene Yohannes Addisu
- Wu Felicia
- Xia Juan
- Xiao Hong
- Xu Gelin
- Xu Suowen
- Xu Xiaoyue
- Yadollahpour Ali
- Yaghoobpoor Shirin
- Yaghoobpour Tina
- Yaghoubi Sajad
- Yahaya Zwanden Sule
- Yang Danting
- Yang Lin
- Yano Yuichiro
- Yaribeygi Habib
- Ye Pengpeng
- Yesodharan Renjulal
- Yesuf Subah Abderehim
- Yezli Saber
- Yigezu Amanuel
- Yip Paul
- Yon Dong Keon
- Yonemoto Naohiro
- You Yuyi
- Younis Mustafa Z
- Yousefi Zabihollah
- Yu Chuanhua
- Yu Yong
- Yuan Chun-Wei
- Zafari Nima
- Zakham Fathiah
- Zaki Nazar
- Zamagni Giulia
- Zandi Milad
- Zandieh Ghazal G Z
- Zangiabadian Moein
- Zastrozhin Mikhail Sergeevich
- Zhang Haijun
- Zhang Meixin
- Zhang Yunquan
- Zhong Chenwen
- Zhou Juexiao
- Zhu Bin
- Zhu Lei
- Zielińska Magdalena
- Zou Zhiyong
- Zyoud Samer H
- Ärnlöv Johan
- Publication venue
- Elsevier
- Publication date
- 20/03/2024
- Field of study
BackgroundAccurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. MethodsTo estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. FindingsDuring the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. InterpretationFertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world. FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation