Spatial prediction of demersal fish diversity in the Baltic Sea: comparison of machine learning and regression-based techniques

Marine spatial planning (MSP) is considered a valuable tool in the ecosystem-based management of marine areas. Predictive modelling may be applied in the MSP framework to obtain spatially explicit information about biodiversity patterns. The growing number of statistical approaches used for this purpose implies the urgent need for comparisons between different predictive techniques. In this study, we evaluated the performance of selected machine learning and regression-based methods that were applied for modelling fish community indices. We hypothesized that habitat features can influence fish assemblage and investigated the effect of environmental gradients on demersal fish diversity (species richness and Shannon–Weaver Index). We used fish data from the Baltic International Trawl Surveys (2001–2014) and maps of six potential predictors: bottom salinity, depth, seabed slope, growth season bottom temperature, seabed sediments and annual mean bottom current velocity. We compared the performance of six alternative modelling approaches: generalized linear models, generalized additive models, multivariate adaptive regression splines, support vector machines, boosted regression trees and random forests. We applied repeated 10-fold cross-validation, using accuracy as the measure of model quality. Finally, we selected random forest as the best performing algorithm and implemented it for the spatial prediction of fish diversity from the Baltic Proper to the Kattegat. To obtain information on the data reliability and confidence of the developed models, which are essential for MSP, we estimated the uncertainty of predictions with standard deviation of predictions obtained from all the trees in the ensemble random forest method. We showed how state-of-the-art predictive techniques, based on easily available data and simple Geographic Information System tools, can be used to obtain reliable spatial information about fish diversity. Our comparative work highlighted the potential of machine learning method to reduce prediction error in modelling of demersal fish diversity in the framework of MSP

Baltic International Fish Survey Working Group (WGBIFS)

The Baltic International Fish Survey Working Group (WGBIFS) plans, coordinates, and imple-ments demersal trawl surveys and hydroacoustic surveys in the Baltic Sea including the Baltic International Acoustic Survey (BIAS), the Baltic Acoustic Spring Survey (BASS), and the Baltic International Trawl Surveys (BITS) in the 1st and 4th quarter on an annual basis. The group com-piles results from these surveys and provides the herring, sprat, cod and flatfish abundance in-dices for the Baltic Fisheries Assessment Working Group (WGBFAS) to use as tuning fleets. In 2023, WGBIFS completed the following tasks: (1) compiled survey results from 2022 and the first half of 2023, (2) planned and coordinated all Baltic fish stocks assessment relevant surveys for the second half of 2023 and the first half of 2024, (3) updated the common survey manuals according to decisions made during the annual WGBIFS meeting. Data from the recent BITS was added to the ICES Database of Trawl Surveys (DATRAS). The Tow-Database was corrected and updated. The Access-databases for aggregated acoustic data and the ICES database of acoustic-trawl surveys for disaggregated data were updated. All countries registered collected litter ma-terials to DATRAS. The area coverage and the number of control hauls in the BASS, BIAS and GRAHS in 2022 were considered to be appropriate to the calculation of tuning indices and the data can be used for the assessment of Baltic herring and sprat stocks. The number of valid hauls accomplished during the 4th quarter 2022 and 1st quarter 2023 BITS were considered by the group as appropriate to tuning series and the data can be used for the assessment of Baltic and Kattegat cod and flatfish stocks. BIAS and BASS survey sampling variance calculation questions were discussed and standard deviation for Central Baltic herring acoustic index series calculated. In comparison exercises between the StoX survey computational method and traditional IBAS calculation methods it was found that the StoX project, developed for the WGBIFS, has small methodological differences compared to the standard calculation method used by the group, as specified in the Manual for the International Baltic Acoustic Surveys (IBAS), and is thereby caus-ing a small difference in the total number of herring and sprat., The work with transition to a more transparent calculation software (e.g. StoX) will continue during the next period with more thorough analysis of calculation methodologies. A further comparison exercise between the StoX method and traditional Gulf of Riga Herring Survey calculation method was performed using data from 11 last years. It showed no major differences in herring total abundance estimates for most of the years. However, notable differ-ences were in the age compositions of those two methods. Some errors and differences in input data (uploaded into the ICES database) were found and therefore the further analysis was post-poned until these issues are fixed. WGBIFS is planning to continue with analogical comparison exercises in the coming years before the final transition to a transparent reproducible pathway into the ICES Transparent Assessment Framework (TAF) can be done. Work towards transitioning to TAF will continue during the next 3-year period until all methodological and database differences are resolved. Inquiries from other ICES expert groups were discussed and addressed

Recreational sea fishing in Europe in a global contextParticipation rates, fishing effort, expenditure, and implications for monitoring and assessment

Marine recreational fishing (MRF) is a high-participation activity with large economic value and social benefits globally, and it impacts on some fish stocks. Although reporting MRF catches is a European Union legislative requirement, estimates are only available for some countries. Here, data on numbers of fishers, participation rates, days fished, expenditures, and catches of two widely targeted species were synthesized to provide European estimates of MRF and placed in the global context. Uncertainty assessment was not possible due to incomplete knowledge of error distributions; instead, a semi-quantitative bias assessment was made. There were an estimated 8.7 million European recreational sea fishers corresponding to a participation rate of 1.6%. An estimated 77.6 million days were fished, and expenditure was Euro5.9 billion annually. There were higher participation, numbers of fishers, days fished and expenditure in the Atlantic than the Mediterranean, but the Mediterranean estimates were generally less robust. Comparisons with other regions showed that European MRF participation rates and expenditure were in the mid-range, with higher participation in Oceania and the United States, higher expenditure in the United States, and lower participation and expenditure in South America and Africa. For both northern European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax, Moronidae) and western Baltic cod (Gadus morhua, Gadidae) stocks, MRF represented 27% of the total removals. This study highlights the importance of MRF and the need for bespoke, regular and statistically sound data collection to underpin European fisheries management. Solutions are proposed for future MRF data collection in Europe and other regions to support sustainable fisheries management.Institut Francais de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer; French Ministry of Fisheries Management; Greek National Data Collection Programme; European Commission, Data Collection Framework; Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs [MF1221, MF1230, MI001]; Norges Forskningsrad [267808]; State Department of Agriculture, Food Security and Fisheries Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania; Interreg IVa 2 Seas; Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs; European Fishery Fund; Government of Galicia [ED481B2014/034-0

Square Grids in the Tomb of Akhethotep – Questions and Doubts

The proportions of the human figure in Egyptian art were determined on the basis of simple and rarely changing rules. The oldest preserved guidelines used for this purpose come from the times of the Fifth Dynasty, and the square grids from the mid-Twelfth Dynasty. The objective of this article is to interpret the guidelines from the chapel of vizier Akhethotep, dated to the Fifth Dynasty, and answer the following questions: when were they made and what rules were used to determine the proportions of the vizier’s body? To do this, the author proposes employment of a measuring method which uses square grids as the main tool and the smallest element of the grid, that is, the square module as the basic measurement unit