Sistema inteligente basado en redes neuronales, máquina de soporte vectorial y random forest para la predicción de deserción de clientes en microcréditos de bancos

La deserción de clientes bancarios es un problema que afecta actualmente a las empresas de todos los sectores y en todos los países. Por su parte, el sector financiero es uno de los más importantes debido a la gran cantidad de clientes y dinero que estos aportan. Las empresas invierten dinero para realizar un seguimiento a los clientes y poder identificar patrones que puedan evidenciar si un cliente va a dejar de hacer negocios con la empresa, pero muchas veces las maneras manuales de realizarlas presentan deficiencias de tiempo y de pérdida de dinero. En la literatura es común ver modelos de predicción de deserción de clientes bancarios microcréditos, el punto débil de estos es que solo aplican una técnica para realizar propiamente la predicción. En virtud de esto, se propone un sistema inteligente basado en un modelo híbrido que combina tres técnicas para proporcionar mejor precisión que la observada en la literatura; estas son Máquinas de Soporte Vectorial, Redes Neuronales y Random Forest. Los resultados numéricos obtenidos del experimento realizado a un banco peruano con un conjunto de datos de 24 420 clientes presentan una precisión de 97.38%, el cual mejora los resultados de la literatura

Chemical characterization of a hypoglycemic extract from Cucurbita ficifolia bouche that induces liver glycogen accumulation in diabetic mice

Background: The aqueous extract of Cucurbita ficifolia (C. ficifolia) fruit has demonstrated hypoglycemic effect, which may be attributed to some components in the extract. However, the major secondary metabolites in this fruit have not yet been identified and little is known about its extra-pancreatic action, in particular, on liver carbohydrate metabolism. Therefore, in addition to the isolation and structural elucidation of the principal components in the aqueous extract of C. ficifolia, the aim of this study was to determine whether or not the hypoglycemic effect of the aqueous extract of Cucurbita ficifolia (C. ficifolia) fruit is due to accumulation of liver glycogen in diabetic mice.Materials and Methods: The aqueous extract from fruit of C. ficifolia was fractionated and its main secondary metabolites were purified and chemically characterized (NMR and GC-MS). Alloxan-induced diabetic mice received daily by gavage the aqueous extract (30 days). The liver glycogen content was quantified by spectroscopic method and by PAS stain; ALT and AST by spectrometric method; glycogen synthase, glycogen phosphorylase and GLUT2 by Western blot; the mRNA expression of GLUT2 and glucagon-receptor by RT-PCR; while serum insulin was quantified by ELISA method. A liver histological analysis was also performed by H&E stain.Results: Chemical fingerprint showed five majoritarian compounds in the aqueous extract of C. ficifolia: p-coumaric acid, p-hydroxybenzoic acid, salicin, stigmast-7,2,2-dien-3-ol and stigmast-7-en-3-ol. The histological analysis showed accumulation of liver glycogen. Also, increased glycogen synthase and decreased glycogen phosphorylase were observed. Interestingly, the histological architecture evidenced a liver-protective effect due the extract.Conclusion: Five compounds were identified in C. ficifolia aqueous extract. The hypoglycemic effect of this extract may be partially explained by liver glycogen accumulation. The bioactive compound responsible for the hypoglycemic effect of this extract will be elucidated in subsequent studies.Keywords: Cucurbita ficifolia, Cucurbitaceae, liver glycogen, hypoglycemic plants, p-coumaric acid, salicin, p-hydroxybenzoic aci

Perfil clínico-epidemiológico y vacunación de covid-19 en universitarios

Introduction: COVID-19 and vaccination has been little studied in young people, the differences that might exist with adults and older adults are unknown. Objective: To describe the clinical-epidemiological profile and vaccination of COVID-19 in university students. Methods: Study with a quantitative approach, observational and retrospective type. The population consisted of 296 university students diagnosed with COVID-19, and the documentary analysis technique was applied. The instrument was the COVID-19 clinical epidemiological research form used during the clinical consultation and virtual HISMINSA vaccination registry. It describes clinical-epidemiological variables and vaccination. Data were processed using SPSS software, version 25. Results: 60.8% corresponded to the age of 17-22 years, 60.1% were female, 52.4% were from the professional area of Social Sciences, the frequent symptoms were: sore throat with 71.0%, nasal congestion with 68.9%, and general malaise with 64.3%. The average number of days elapsed from the onset of symptoms to the confirmation of the diagnosis was 4 days. The great majority classified as mild. Conclusion: COVID-19 in university students has less severe epidemiological clinical characteristics than in older age groups; of those who became ill, almost half did not receive the vaccine.Introducción: El COVID-19 y la vacunación ha sido poco estudiado en jóvenes, se desconoce las diferencias que podría existir con los adultos y adultos mayores. Objetivo: Describir el perfil clínico-epidemiológico y vacunación de COVID-19 en universitarios. Métodos: Estudio de enfoque cuantitativo, tipo observacional y retrospectivo. La población conformada por 296 universitarios con diagnóstico de COVID-19, se aplicó la técnica de análisis documental. El instrumento fue la ficha de investigación clínico epidemiológica COVID-19 utilizada durante la consulta clínica y registro virtual de vacunación HISMINSA. Se describe variables clínico-epidemiológicas y vacunación. Se procesó los datos a través del software SPSS, versión 25. Resultados: El 60.8% corresponde a la edad de 17 – 22 años, 60.1 % son del sexo femenino, 52.4% son del área profesional de Ciencias Sociales, los síntomas frecuentes fueron: dolor de garganta con 71.0%, congestión nasal con 68.9%, y malestar general con 64.3%. Los días transcurridos desde la aparición de síntomas hasta la confirmación del diagnóstico en promedio fue de 4 días. La gran mayoría clasificado como leve. Conclusión: El COVID-19 en universitarios tienen características clínicas epidemiológicas menos graves que en edades superiores, de los que enfermaron casi la mitad no recibió la vacuna

CHEMICAL CHARACTERIZATION OF A HYPOGLYCEMIC EXTRACT FROM CUCURBITA FICIFOLIA BOUCHE THAT INDUCES LIVER GLYCOGEN ACCUMULATION IN DIABETIC MICE.

Background: The aqueous extract of Cucurbita ficifolia (C. ficifolia) fruit has demonstrated hypoglycemic effect, which may be attributed to some components in the extract. However, the major secondary metabolites in this fruit have not yet been identified and little is known about its extra-pancreatic action, in particular, on liver carbohydrate metabolism. Therefore, in addition to the isolation and structural elucidation of the principal components in the aqueous extract of C. ficifolia, the aim of this study was to determine whether or not the hypoglycemic effect of the aqueous extract of Cucurbita ficifolia (C. ficifolia) fruit is due to accumulation of liver glycogen in diabetic mice. Materials and Methods: The aqueous extract from fruit of C. ficifolia was fractionated and its main secondary metabolites were purified and chemically characterized (NMR and GC-MS). Alloxan-induced diabetic mice received daily by gavage the aqueous extract (30 days). The liver glycogen content was quantified by spectroscopic method and by PAS stain; ALT and AST by spectrometric method; glycogen synthase, glycogen phosphorylase and GLUT2 by Western blot; the mRNA expression of GLUT2 and glucagon-receptor by RT-PCR; while serum insulin was quantified by ELISA method. A liver histological analysis was also performed by H&E stain. Results: Chemical fingerprint showed five majoritarian compounds in the aqueous extract of C. ficifolia: p-coumaric acid, p-hydroxybenzoic acid, salicin, stigmast-7,2,2-dien-3-ol and stigmast-7-en-3-ol. The histological analysis showed accumulation of liver glycogen. Also, increased glycogen synthase and decreased glycogen phosphorylase were observed. Interestingly, the histological architecture evidenced a liver-protective effect due the extract. Conclusion: Five compounds were identified in C. ficifolia aqueous extract. The hypoglycemic effect of this extract may be partially explained by liver glycogen accumulation. The bioactive compound responsible for the hypoglycemic effect of this extract will be elucidated in subsequent studies

Factors associated with cognitive impairment in Latin American older adults: A cross‐sectional observational study of COVID‐19 confinement

INTRODUCTION: The effects of COVID-19 confinement have been severe, especially in older adults. Therefore, we analyzed the factors associated with cognitive impairment (CI) in Latin America (LA). METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional observational study with a total of 5245 older adults from 10 countries in LA. Measurement: We used the Telephone Montreal Cognitive Assessment (T-MoCA) and the Eight-item Informant Interview to Differentiate Aging and Dementia (AD8) scale. RESULTS: We found that age, depressive symptomatology, bone fractures, being widowed, having a family member with dementia, and unemployment were associated with an increased risk of CI. In contrast, higher education, hypertension with continuous treatment, quarantine, and keeping stimulating cognitive and physical activities were associated with a lower probability of CI. No significant association was found between suffering from diabetes or being retired and CI. DISCUSSION: It is essential to conduct follow-up studies on these factors, considering their relationship with CI and the duration of confinement

Impactos en la cadena de valor del cacao en Perú como consecuencia del Reglamento UE No. 488/2014

Este informe hace parte de los productos del componente socioeconómico del proyecto Clima-LoCa. El documento presenta los resultados agregados de una serie de análisis y estudios desarrollados por miembros de la Alianza Bioversity International y CIAT, SENASA, INIA, MIDAGRI y las cooperativas Agroindustrial Cacao Alto Huallaga (CAICAH) y NorAndino durante los años 2020 y 2021 relacionados a los efectos del reglamento UE No 488/2014 en la cadena de valor de cacao en el Perú y las medidas adelantadas para mitigarlos. Primero se presenta una contextualización de la cadena del cacao y chocolate en el Perú, así como de la problemática del cadmio, las iniciativas adelantadas a nivel nacional para hacer frente a esta situación y los resultados de una revisión de la literatura disponible relacionada a los impactos del reglamento en la cadena. El informe presenta un análisis que combina diversas metodologías y fuentes, apoyándose en la multiplicidad de enfoques, fuentes de información y perspectivas de las organizaciones participantes. *Clima-LoCa es un proyecto regional liderado por la Alianza de Bioversity International y el Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT), implementado en colaboración con socios en investigación de América Latina y Europa y financiado por la Comisión Europea. Este proyecto contribuye a cumplir los objetivos de la convocatoria de 2018 sobre “Innovaciones relacionadas con el clima mediante investigación agrícola” de la plataforma liderada por la CE, DeSIRA (Development-Smart Innovation through Research in Agriculture), que se basa en el anhelo de mejorar la movilización de la investigación y la capacidad de innovación para contribuir al desarrollo sostenible del sector cacaotero. Este proyecto aborda desafíos importantes relacionados con la resiliencia, competitividad e inclusión del creciente sector cacaotero. Aquí, resiliencia se refiere a la capacidad de los pequeños productores y otros actores de la cadena de valor, de mitigar los impactos negativos de los nuevos reglamentos de inocuidad alimentaria de la UE sobre cadmio en cacao, y del cambio climático. https://climaloca.org/

PREDICT identifies precipitating events associated with the clinical course of acutely decompensated cirrhosis

Background & Aims: Acute decompensation (AD) of cirrhosis may present without acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) (ADNo ACLF), or with ACLF (AD-ACLF), defined by organ failure(s). Herein, we aimed to analyze and characterize the precipitants leading to both of these AD phenotypes. Methods: The multicenter, prospective, observational PREDICT study (NCT03056612) included 1,273 non-electively hospitalized patients with AD (No ACLF = 1,071; ACLF = 202). Medical history, clinical data and laboratory data were collected at enrolment and during 90-day follow-up, with particular attention given to the following characteristics of precipitants: induction of organ dysfunction or failure, systemic inflammation, chronology, intensity, and relationship to outcome. Results: Among various clinical events, 4 distinct events were precipitants consistently related to AD: proven bacterial infections, severe alcoholic hepatitis, gastrointestinal bleeding with shock and toxic encephalopathy. Among patients with precipitants in the AD-No ACLF cohort and the AD-ACLF cohort (38% and 71%, respectively), almost all (96% and 97%, respectively) showed proven bacterial infection and severe alcoholic hepatitis, either alone or in combination with other events. Survival was similar in patients with proven bacterial infections or severe alcoholic hepatitis in both AD phenotypes. The number of precipitants was associated with significantly increased 90day mortality and was paralleled by increasing levels of surrogates for systemic inflammation. Importantly, adequate first-line antibiotic treatment of proven bacterial infections was associated with a lower ACLF development rate and lower 90-day mortality. Conclusions: This study identified precipitants that are significantly associated with a distinct clinical course and prognosis in patients with AD. Specific preventive and therapeutic strategies targeting these events may improve outcomes in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Lay summary: Acute decompensation (AD) of cirrhosis is characterized by a rapid deterioration in patient health. Herein, we aimed to analyze the precipitating events that cause AD in patients with cirrhosis. Proven bacterial infections and severe alcoholic hepatitis, either alone or in combination, accounted for almost all (96-97%) cases of AD and acute-on-chronic liver failure. Whilst the type of precipitant was not associated with mortality, the number of precipitant(s) was. This study identified precipitants that are significantly associated with a distinct clinical course and prognosis of patients with AD. Specific preventive and therapeutic strategies targeting these events may improve patient outcomes. (c) 2020 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)

The PREDICT study uncovers three clinical courses of acutely decompensated cirrhosis that have distinct pathophysiology

Acute decompensation (AD) of cirrhosis is defined as the acute development of ascites, gastrointestinal hemorrhage, hepatic encephalopathy, infection or any combination thereof, requiring hospitalization. The presence of organ failure(s) in patients with AD defines acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). The PREDICT study is a European, prospective, observational study, designed to characterize the clinical course of AD and to identify predictors of ACLF. A total of 1,071 patients with AD were enrolled. We collected detailed pre-specified information on the 3-month period prior to enrollment, and clinical and laboratory data at enrollment. Patients were then closely followed up for 3 months. Outcomes (liver transplantation and death) at 1 year were also recorded. Three groups of patients were identified. Pre-ACLF patients (n = 218) developed ACLF and had 3-month and 1-year mortality rates of 53.7% and 67.4%, respectively. Unstable decompensated cirrhosis (UDC) patients (n = 233) required ≥1 readmission but did not develop ACLF and had mortality rates of 21.0% and 35.6%, respectively. Stable decompensated cirrhosis (SDC) patients (n = 620) were not readmitted, did not develop ACLF and had a 1-year mortality rate of only 9.5%. The 3 groups differed significantly regarding the grade and course of systemic inflammation (high-grade at enrollment with aggravation during follow-up in pre-ACLF; low-grade at enrollment with subsequent steady-course in UDC; and low-grade at enrollment with subsequent improvement in SDC) and the prevalence of surrogates of severe portal hypertension throughout the study (high in UDC vs. low in pre-ACLF and SDC). Acute decompensation without ACLF is a heterogeneous condition with 3 different clinical courses and 2 major pathophysiological mechanisms: systemic inflammation and portal hypertension. Predicting the development of ACLF remains a major future challenge. ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT03056612. Lay summary: Herein, we describe, for the first time, 3 different clinical courses of acute decompensation (AD) of cirrhosis after hospital admission. The first clinical course includes patients who develop acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) and have a high short-term risk of death - termed pre-ACLF. The second clinical course (unstable decompensated cirrhosis) includes patients requiring frequent hospitalizations unrelated to ACLF and is associated with a lower mortality risk than pre-ACLF. Finally, the third clinical course (stable decompensated cirrhosis), includes two-thirds of all patients admitted to hospital with AD - patients in this group rarely require hospital admission and have a much lower 1-year mortality risk

Factors influencing terrestriality in primates of the Americas and Madagascar

Among mammals, the order Primates is exceptional in having a high taxonomic richness in which the taxa are arboreal, semiterrestrial, or terrestrial. Although habitual terrestriality is pervasive among the apes and African and Asian monkeys (catarrhines), it is largely absent among monkeys of the Americas (platyrrhines), as well as galagos, lemurs, and lorises (strepsirrhines), which are mostly arboreal. Numerous ecological drivers and species-specific factors are suggested to set the conditions for an evolutionary shift from arboreality to terrestriality, and current environmental conditions may provide analogous scenarios to those transitional periods. Therefore, we investigated predominantly arboreal, diurnal primate genera from the Americas and Madagascar that lack fully terrestrial taxa, to determine whether ecological drivers (habitat canopy cover, predation risk, maximum temperature, precipitation, primate species richness, human population density, and distance to roads) or species-specific traits (bodymass, group size, and degree of frugivory) associate with increased terrestriality. We collated 150,961 observation hours across 2,227 months from 47 species at 20 sites in Madagascar and 48 sites in the Americas. Multiple factors were associated with ground use in these otherwise arboreal species, including increased temperature, a decrease in canopy cover, a dietary shift away from frugivory, and larger group size. These factors mostly explain intraspecific differences in terrestriality. As humanity modifies habitats and causes climate change, our results suggest that species already inhabiting hot, sparsely canopied sites, and exhibiting more generalized diets, are more likely to shift toward greater ground use

5to. Congreso Internacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación para la Sociedad. Memoria académica

El V Congreso Internacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación para la Sociedad, CITIS 2019, realizado del 6 al 8 de febrero de 2019 y organizado por la Universidad Politécnica Salesiana, ofreció a la comunidad académica nacional e internacional una plataforma de comunicación unificada, dirigida a cubrir los problemas teóricos y prácticos de mayor impacto en la sociedad moderna desde la ingeniería. En esta edición, dedicada a los 25 años de vida de la UPS, los ejes temáticos estuvieron relacionados con la aplicación de la ciencia, el desarrollo tecnológico y la innovación en cinco pilares fundamentales de nuestra sociedad: la industria, la movilidad, la sostenibilidad ambiental, la información y las telecomunicaciones. El comité científico estuvo conformado formado por 48 investigadores procedentes de diez países: España, Reino Unido, Italia, Bélgica, México, Venezuela, Colombia, Brasil, Estados Unidos y Ecuador. Fueron recibidas un centenar de contribuciones, de las cuales 39 fueron aprobadas en forma de ponencias y 15 en formato poster. Estas contribuciones fueron presentadas de forma oral ante toda la comunidad académica que se dio cita en el Congreso, quienes desde el aula magna, el auditorio y la sala de usos múltiples de la Universidad Politécnica Salesiana, cumplieron respetuosamente la responsabilidad de representar a toda la sociedad en la revisión, aceptación y validación del conocimiento nuevo que fue presentado en cada exposición por los investigadores. Paralelo a las sesiones técnicas, el Congreso contó con espacios de presentación de posters científicos y cinco workshops en temáticas de vanguardia que cautivaron la atención de nuestros docentes y estudiantes. También en el marco del evento se impartieron un total de ocho conferencias magistrales en temas tan actuales como la gestión del conocimiento en la universidad-ecosistema, los retos y oportunidades de la industria 4.0, los avances de la investigación básica y aplicada en mecatrónica para el estudio de robots de nueva generación, la optimización en ingeniería con técnicas multi-objetivo, el desarrollo de las redes avanzadas en Latinoamérica y los mundos, la contaminación del aire debido al tránsito vehicular, el radón y los riesgos que representa este gas radiactivo para la salud humana, entre otros