How to detect high-performing individuals and groups: Decision similarity predicts accuracy

Distinguishing between high- and low-performing individuals and groups is of prime importance in a wide range of high-stakes contexts. While this is straightforward when accurate records of past performance exist, these records are unavailable in most real-world contexts. Focusing on the class of binary decision problems, we use a combined theoretical and empirical approach to develop and test a approach to this important problem. First, we use a general mathematical argument and numerical simulations to show that the similarity of an individual's decisions to others is a powerful predictor of that individual's decision accuracy. Second, testing this prediction with several large datasets on breast and skin cancer diagnostics, geopolitical forecasting, and a general knowledge task, we find that decision similarity robustly permits the identification of high-performing individuals and groups. Our findings offer a simple, yet broadly applicable, heuristic for improving real-world decision-making systems

Harnessing the wisdom of crowds can improve guideline compliance of antibiotic prescribers and support antimicrobial stewardship

open access articleAntibiotic overprescribing is a global challenge contributing to rising levels of antibiotic resistance and mortality. We test a novel approach to antibiotic stewardship. Capitalising on the concept of “wisdom of crowds”, which states that a group’s collective judgement often outperforms the average individual, we test whether pooling treatment durations recommended by different prescribers can improve antibiotic prescribing. Using international survey data from 787 expert antibiotic prescribers, we run computer simulations to test the performance of the wisdom of crowds by comparing three data aggregation rules across different clinical cases and group sizes. We also identify patterns of prescribing bias in recommendations about antibiotic treatment durations to quantify current levels of overprescribing. Our results suggest that pooling the treatment recommendations (using the median) could improve guideline compliance in groups of three or more prescribers. Implications for antibiotic stewardship and the general improvement of medical decision making are discussed. Clinical applicability is likely to be greatest in the context of hospital ward rounds and larger, multidisciplinary team meetings, where complex patient cases are discussed and existing guidelines provide limited guidance

Social networks in changing environments

Social network analysis (SNA) has become a widespread tool for the study of animal social organisation. However despite this broad applicability, SNA is currently limited by both an overly strong focus on pattern analysis as well as a lack of dynamic interaction models. Here, we use a dynamic modelling approach that can capture the responses of social networks to changing environments. Using the guppy, Poecilia reticulata, we identified the general properties of the social dynamics underlying fish social networks and found that they are highly robust to differences in population density and habitat changes. Movement simulations showed that this robustness could buffer changes in transmission processes over a surprisingly large density range. These simulation results suggest that the ability of social systems to self-stabilise could have important implications for the spread of infectious diseases and information. In contrast to habitat manipulations, social manipulations (e.g. change of sex ratios) produced strong, but short-lived, changes in network dynamics. Lastly, we discuss how the evolution of the observed social dynamics might be linked to predator attack strategies. We argue that guppy social networks are an emergent property of social dynamics resulting from predator–prey co-evolution. Our study highlights the need to develop dynamic models of social networks in connection with an evolutionary framework

Increased searching and handling effort in tall swards lead to a Type IV functional response in small grazing herbivores

Understanding the functional response of species is important in comprehending the species’ population dynamics and the functioning of multi-species assemblages. A Type II functional response, where instantaneous intake rate increases asymptotically with sward biomass, is thought to be common in grazers. However, at tall, dense swards, food intake might decline due to mechanical limitations or if animals selectively forage on the most nutritious parts of a sward, leading to a Type IV functional response, especially for smaller herbivores. We tested the predictions that bite mass, cropping time, swallowing time and searching time increase, and bite rate decreases with increasing grass biomass for different-sized Canada geese (Branta canadensis) foraging on grass swards. Bite mass indeed showed an increasing asymptotic relationship with grass biomass. At high biomass, difficulties in handling long leaves and in locating bites were responsible for increasing cropping, swallowing, and searching times. Constant bite mass and decreasing bite rate caused the intake rate to decrease at high sward biomass after reaching an optimum, leading to a Type IV functional response. Grazer body mass affected maximum bite mass and intake rate, but did not change the shape of the functional response. As grass nutrient contents are usually highest in short swards, this Type IV functional response in geese leads to an intake rate that is maximised in these swards. The lower grass biomass at which intake rate was maximised allows resource partitioning between different-sized grazers. We argue that this Type IV functional response is of more importance than previously thought

Is leadership a reliable concept in animals? An empirical study in the horse

International audienceLeadership is commonly invoked when accounting for the coordination of group movements in animals, yet it remains loosely defined. In parallel, there is increased evidence of the sharing of group decisions by animals on the move. How leadership integrates within this recent framework on collective decision-making is unclear. Here, we question the occurrence of leadership in horses, a species in which this concept is of prevalent use. The relevance of the three main definitions of leadership - departing first, walking in front travel position, and eliciting the joining of mates - was tested on the collective movements of two semi-free ranging groups of Przewalski horses (Equus ferus przewalskii). We did not find any leader capable of driving most group movements or recruiting mates more quickly than others. Several group members often displayed pre-departure behaviours at the same time, and the simultaneous departure of several individuals was common. We conclude that the decision-making process was shared by several group members a group movement (i.e., partially shared consensus) and that the leadership concept did not help to depict individual departure and leading behaviour across movements in both study groups. Rather, the different proxies of leadership produced conflicting information about individual contributions to group coordination. This study discusses the implications of these findings for the field of coordination and decision-making research

Regulation of peripheral blood flow in Complex Regional Pain Syndrome: clinical implication for symptomatic relief and pain management

Background. During the chronic stage of Complex Regional Pain Syndrome (CRPS), impaired microcirculation is related to increased vasoconstriction, tissue hypoxia, and metabolic tissue acidosis in the affected limb. Several mechanisms may be responsible for the ischemia and pain in chronic cold CPRS. Discussion. The diminished blood flow may be caused by either sympathetic dysfunction, hypersensitivity to circulating catecholamines, or endothelial dysfunction. The pain may be of neuropathic, inflammatory, nociceptive, or functional nature, or of mixed origin. Summary. The origin of the pain should be the basis of the symptomatic therapy. Since the difference in temperature between both hands fluctuates over time in cold CRPS, when in doubt, the clinician should prioritize the patient's report of a persistent cold extremity over clinical tests that show no difference. Future research should focus on developing easily applied methods for clinical use to differentiate between central and peripheral blood flow regulation disorders in individual patients

Assessment of left ventricular volumes; reliable by gated SPECT?

Ventricular Dysfunction & Heart Failur

Social preferences and network structure in a population of reef manta rays

Understanding how individual behavior shapes the structure and ecology ofpopulations is key to species conservation and management. Like manyelasmobranchs, manta rays are highly mobile and wide ranging species threatened byanthropogenic impacts. In shallow-water environments these pelagic rays often formgroups, and perform several apparently socially-mediated behaviors. Group structuresmay result from active choices of individual rays to interact, or passive processes.Social behavior is known to affect spatial ecology in other elasmobranchs, but this isthe first study providing quantitative evidence for structured social relationships inmanta rays. To construct social networks, we collected data from more than 500groups of reef manta rays over five years, in the Raja Ampat Regency of West Papua.We used generalized affiliation indices to isolate social preferences from non-socialassociations, the first study on elasmobranchs to use this method. Longer lastingsocial preferences were detected mostly between female rays. We detectedassortment of social relations by phenotype and variation in social strategies, with theoverall social network divided into two main communities. Overall network structurewas characteristic of a dynamic fission-fusion society, with differentiated relationshipslinked to strong fidelity to cleaning station sites. Our results suggest that fine-scaleconservation measures will be useful in protecting social groups of M. alfredi in theirnatural habitats, and that a more complete understanding of the social nature of mantarays will help predict population response

Social networks in primates: smart and tolerant species have more efficient networks

Network optimality has been described in genes, proteins and human communicative networks. In the latter, optimality leads to the efficient transmission of information with a minimum number of connections. Whilst studies show that differences in centrality exist in animal networks with central individuals having higher fitness, network efficiency has never been studied in animal groups. Here we studied 78 groups of primates (24 species). We found that group size and neocortex ratio were correlated with network efficiency. Centralisation (whether several individuals are central in the group) and modularity (how a group is clustered) had opposing effects on network efficiency, showing that tolerant species have more efficient networks. Such network properties affecting individual fitness could be shaped by natural selection. Our results are in accordance with the social brain and cultural intelligence hypotheses, which suggest that the importance of network efficiency and information flow through social learning relates to cognitive abilities

Assessment of left ventricular function: visual or quantitative?

Cardiovascular Aspects of Radiolog