Changes in perceived scientific consensus shift beliefs about climate change and GM food safety.

Despite an overwhelming scientific consensus, a sizable minority of people doubt that human activity is causing climate change. Communicating the existence of a scientific consensus has been suggested as a way to correct individuals' misperceptions about human-caused climate change and other scientific issues, though empirical support is mixed. We report an experiment in which psychology students were presented with consensus information about two issues, and subsequently reported their perception of the level of consensus and extent of their endorsement of those issues. We find that messages about scientific consensus on the reality of anthropogenic climate change and the safety of genetically modified food shift perceptions of scientific consensus. Using mediation models we also show that, for both these issues, high consensus messages also increase reported personal agreement with the scientific consensus, mediated by changes in perceptions of a scientific consensus. This confirms the role of perceived consensus in informing personal beliefs about climate change, though results indicate the impact of single, one-off messages may be limited

Maximizing the impact of malaria funding through allocative efficiency: using the right interventions in the right locations.

BACKGROUND: The high burden of malaria and limited funding means there is a necessity to maximize the allocative efficiency of malaria control programmes. Quantitative tools are urgently needed to guide budget allocation decisions. METHODS: A geospatial epidemic model was coupled with costing data and an optimization algorithm to estimate the optimal allocation of budgeted and projected funds across all malaria intervention approaches. Interventions included long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs), indoor residual spraying (IRS), intermittent presumptive treatment during pregnancy (IPTp), seasonal mass chemoprevention in children (SMC), larval source management (LSM), mass drug administration (MDA), and behavioural change communication (BCC). The model was applied to six geopolitical regions of Nigeria in isolation and also the nation as a whole to minimize incidence and malaria-attributable mortality. RESULTS: Allocative efficiency gains could avert approximately 84,000 deaths or 15.7 million cases of malaria in Nigeria over 5 years. With an additional US$300 million available, approximately 134,000 deaths or 37.3 million cases of malaria could be prevented over 5 years. Priority funding should go to LLINs, IPTp and BCC programmes, and SMC should be expanded in seasonal areas. To minimize mortality, treatment expansion is critical and prioritized over some LLIN funding, while to minimize incidence, LLIN funding remained a priority. For areas with lower rainfall, LSM is prioritized over IRS but MDA is not recommended unless all other programmes are established. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial reductions in malaria morbidity and mortality can be made by optimal targeting of investments to the right malaria interventions in the right areas

Detection of nitrogen gas in the β pictoris circumstellar disk

Context. The gas composition of the debris disc surrounding β Pictoris is rich in carbon and oxygen relative to solar abundances. Two possible scenarios have been proposed to explain this enrichment. The preferential production scenario suggests that the produced gas may be naturally rich in carbon and oxygen, while the alternative preferential depletion scenario states that the enrichment has evolved to the current state from a gas with solar-like abundances. In the latter case, the radiation pressure from the star expels the gas outwards, leaving behind species that are less sensitive to stellar radiation such as C and O. Nitrogen is not sensitive to radiation pressure either as a result of its low oscillator strength, which would make it also overabundant under the preferential depletion scenario. The abundance of nitrogen in the disc may therefore provide clues to why C and O are overabundant. Aims. We aim to measure the nitrogen column density in the direction of β Pictoris (including contributions by the interstellar medium and circumstellar disc), and use this information to distinguish these different scenarios to explain the C and O overabundance. Methods. Using far-UV spectroscopic data collected by the Hubble Space Telescope’s Cosmic Origins Spectrograph (COS) instrument, we analysed the spectrum and characterised the NI triplet by modelling the absorption lines. Results. We measure the nitrogen column density in the direction of β Pictoris for the first time, and find it to be log(NNI/1 cm2) = 14.9 ± 0.7. The nitrogen gas is found to be consistent with solar abundances and Halley dust. We also measure an upper limit for the column density of MnII in the disc at log(NMnII/1 cm2)CS = 12.7+0.1 and calculate the column density of SIII** in the disc to be log(NSIII★★/1 cm2)CSX = 14.2 ± 0.1. Both results are in good agreement with previous studies. Conclusions. The solar nitrogen abundance supports the preferential production hypothesis, in which the composition of gas in β Pictoris is the result of photodesorption from icy grains that are rich in C and O or collisional vaporisation of C- and O-rich dust in the disc. It does not support the hypothesis that C and O are overabundant because C and O are insensitive to radiation pressure, which would cause them to accumulate in the disc

Psychosocial work environment and leisure-time physical activity: the Stormont Study

Background: Research findings are equivocal on relations between the psychosocial work environment and leisure-time physical activity (LTPA). This might be partly due to studies having focused on a restricted set of psychosocial dimensions, thereby failing to capture all relevant domains. Aims: First, to examine cross-sectional associations between seven psychosocial work environment domains and LTPA in a large sample of UK civil servants. Second, to profile LTPA and consider this in relation to UK government recommendations on physical activity. Method: in 2012, Northern Ireland Civil Service employees completed a questionnaire including measures of psychosocial working conditions (Management Standards Indicator Tool) and LTPA. We applied bivariate correlations and linear regression analyses to examine relations between psychosocial working conditions and LTPA. Results: Of ~26,000 civil servants contacted, 5,235 (20%) completed the questionnaire. Twenty-four per cent of men and 17% of women reported having undertaken ≥30 minutes of physical activity on five or more days in the past week. Job control (-0.08) and peer support (-0.05) were weakly but significantly negatively correlated with LTPA in men. Job role (-0.05) was weakly but significantly negatively correlated with LTPA in women. These psychosocial work characteristics accounted for 1% or less of the variance in LTPA. Conclusions: Longitudinal research to examine cause-effect relations between psychosocial work characteristics and leisure-time physical activity might inform the potential for psychosocial job redesign to increase employees’ physical activity during leisure time

A Multi-Frequency Radio Study of Supernova Remnant G292.0+1.8 and its Pulsar Wind Nebula

(Abridged) We present a detailed radio study of the young supernova remnant (SNR) G292.0+1.8 and its associated pulsar PSR J1124-5916, using the Australia Telescope Compact Array at observing wavelengths of 20, 13 and 6 cm. We find that the radio morphology of the source consists of three main components: a polarized flat-spectrum central core coincident with the pulsar J1124-5916, a surrounding circular steep-spectrum plateau with sharp outer edges and, superimposed on the plateau, a series of radial filaments with spectra significantly flatter than their surroundings. HI absorption argues for a lower limit on the distance to the system of 6 kpc. The core clearly corresponds to radio emission from a pulsar wind nebula powered by PSR J1124-5916, while the plateau represents the surrounding SNR shell. The plateau's sharp outer rim delineates the SNR's forward shock, while the thickness of the plateau region demonstrates that the forward and reverse shocks are well-separated. Assuming a distance of 6 kpc and an age for the source of 2500 yr, we infer an expansion velocity for the SNR of ~1200 km/s and an ambient density ~0.9 cm^-3. We interpret the flat-spectrum radial filaments superimposed on the steeper-spectrum plateau as Rayleigh-Taylor unstable regions between the forward and reverse shocks of the SNR. The flat radio spectrum seen for these features results from efficient second-order Fermi acceleration in strongly amplified magnetic fields.Comment: 11 pages of text, plus 7 embedded EPS figures. Accepted to ApJ. Added missing units on x-axis of Fig

An endogenous inhibitor of angiogenesis downregulated by hypoxia in human aortic valve stenosis promotes disease pathogenesis

Acknowledgements The authors would like to acknowledge the NHS Grampian Biorepository for their support and assistance with all immunohistochemistry. Sources of funding This work was generously funded by the British Heart Foundation, UK (FS/17/28/32807) and Grampian NHS Endowments.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Altruism can proliferate through group/kin selection despite high random gene flow

The ways in which natural selection can allow the proliferation of cooperative behavior have long been seen as a central problem in evolutionary biology. Most of the literature has focused on interactions between pairs of individuals and on linear public goods games. This emphasis led to the conclusion that even modest levels of migration would pose a serious problem to the spread of altruism in group structured populations. Here we challenge this conclusion, by analyzing evolution in a framework which allows for complex group interactions and random migration among groups. We conclude that contingent forms of strong altruism can spread when rare under realistic group sizes and levels of migration. Our analysis combines group-centric and gene-centric perspectives, allows for arbitrary strength of selection, and leads to extensions of Hamilton's rule for the spread of altruistic alleles, applicable under broad conditions.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures. Supplementary material with 50 pages and 26 figure

The effect of distance on reaction time in aiming movements

Target distance affects movement duration in aiming tasks but its effect on reaction time (RT) is poorly documented. RT is a function of both preparation and initiation. Experiment 1 pre-cued movement (allowing advanced preparation) and found no influence of distance on RT. Thus, target distance does not affect initiation time. Experiment 2 removed pre-cue information and found that preparing a movement of increased distance lengthens RT. Experiment 3 explored movements to targets of cued size at non-cued distances and found size altered peak speed and movement duration but RT was influenced by distance alone. Thus, amplitude influences preparation time (for reasons other than altered duration) but not initiation time. We hypothesise that the RT distance effect might be due to the increased number of possible trajectories associated with further targets: a hypothesis that can be tested in future experiments

Galactic interstellar 18O/17O ratios - a radial gradient?

(Abridged) Our aim is to determine 18O/17O abundance ratios across the entire Galaxy. These provide a measure of the amount of enrichment by high-mass versus intermediate-mass stars. Such ratios, derived from the C18O and C17O J=1-0 lines alone, may be affected by systematic errors. Therefore, the C18O and C17O (1-0), (2-1), and (3-2), as well as the 13CO (1-0) and (2-1) lines, were observed towards 18 prominent galactic targets (a total of 25 positions). The combined dataset was analysed with an LVG model, accounting for optical depth effects. The data cover galactocentric radii R between 0.1 and 16.9 kpc (solar circle at 8.5 kpc). Near the centre of the Galaxy, 18O/17O = 2.88 +/- 0.11. For the galactic disc out to an R of ca. 10 kpc, 18O/17O = 4.16 +/- 0.09. At ca. R = 16.5 kpc, 18O/17O = 5.03 +/- 0.46. Assuming that 18O is synthesised predominantly in high-mass stars (M > 8 Msun), while C17O is mainly a product of lower-mass stars, the ratio from the inner Galaxy indicates a dominance of CNO-hydrogen burning products that is also apparent in the C- and N-isotope ratios. The high 18O/17O value of the solar system (5.5) relative to that of the ambient ISM suggests contamination by nearby high-mass stars during its formation. High values in the metal-poor environment of the outer Galaxy are not matched by the low values observed towards the even more metal-poor LMC. Apparently, the outer Galaxy cannot be considered as an intermediate environment between the solar neighbourhood and the ISM of small metal-poor galaxies. The apparent 18O/17O gradient along the galactic disc and the discrepancy between outer disc and LMC isotope ratios may be explained by different ages of the respective stellar populations.Comment: Accepted by Astron. & Astroph.; 10 pages + 4 pages on-line material (figs

Optima Nutrition: an allocative efficiency tool to reduce childhood stunting by better targeting of nutrition-related interventions.

BACKGROUND: Child stunting due to chronic malnutrition is a major problem in low- and middle-income countries due, in part, to inadequate nutrition-related practices and insufficient access to services. Limited budgets for nutritional interventions mean that available resources must be targeted in the most cost-effective manner to have the greatest impact. Quantitative tools can help guide budget allocation decisions. METHODS: The Optima approach is an established framework to conduct resource allocation optimization analyses. We applied this approach to develop a new tool, 'Optima Nutrition', for conducting allocative efficiency analyses that address childhood stunting. At the core of the Optima approach is an epidemiological model for assessing the burden of disease; we use an adapted version of the Lives Saved Tool (LiST). Six nutritional interventions have been included in the first release of the tool: antenatal micronutrient supplementation, balanced energy-protein supplementation, exclusive breastfeeding promotion, promotion of improved infant and young child feeding (IYCF) practices, public provision of complementary foods, and vitamin A supplementation. To demonstrate the use of this tool, we applied it to evaluate the optimal allocation of resources in 7 districts in Bangladesh, using both publicly available data (such as through DHS) and data from a complementary costing study. RESULTS: Optima Nutrition can be used to estimate how to target resources to improve nutrition outcomes. Specifically, for the Bangladesh example, despite only limited nutrition-related funding available (an estimated $0.75 per person in need per year), even without any extra resources, better targeting of investments in nutrition programming could increase the cumulative number of children living without stunting by 1.3 million (an extra 5%) by 2030 compared to the current resource allocation. To minimize stunting, priority interventions should include promotion of improved IYCF practices as well as vitamin A supplementation. Once these programs are adequately funded, the public provision of complementary foods should be funded as the next priority. Programmatic efforts should give greatest emphasis to the regions of Dhaka and Chittagong, which have the greatest number of stunted children. CONCLUSIONS: A resource optimization tool can provide important guidance for targeting nutrition investments to achieve greater impact