Global yellow fever vaccination coverage from 1970 to 2016: an adjusted retrospective analysis.

BACKGROUND: Substantial outbreaks of yellow fever in Angola and Brazil in the past 2 years, combined with global shortages in vaccine stockpiles, highlight a pressing need to assess present control strategies. The aims of this study were to estimate global yellow fever vaccination coverage from 1970 through to 2016 at high spatial resolution and to calculate the number of individuals still requiring vaccination to reach population coverage thresholds for outbreak prevention. METHODS: For this adjusted retrospective analysis, we compiled data from a range of sources (eg, WHO reports and health-service-provider registeries) reporting on yellow fever vaccination activities between May 1, 1939, and Oct 29, 2016. To account for uncertainty in how vaccine campaigns were targeted, we calculated three population coverage values to encompass alternative scenarios. We combined these data with demographic information and tracked vaccination coverage through time to estimate the proportion of the population who had ever received a yellow fever vaccine for each second level administrative division across countries at risk of yellow fever virus transmission from 1970 to 2016. FINDINGS: Overall, substantial increases in vaccine coverage have occurred since 1970, but notable gaps still exist in contemporary coverage within yellow fever risk zones. We estimate that between 393·7 million and 472·9 million people still require vaccination in areas at risk of yellow fever virus transmission to achieve the 80% population coverage threshold recommended by WHO; this represents between 43% and 52% of the population within yellow fever risk zones, compared with between 66% and 76% of the population who would have required vaccination in 1970. INTERPRETATION: Our results highlight important gaps in yellow fever vaccination coverage, can contribute to improved quantification of outbreak risk, and help to guide planning of future vaccination efforts and emergency stockpiling. FUNDING: The Rhodes Trust, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Wellcome Trust, the National Library of Medicine of the National Institutes of Health, the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme

Existing and potential infection risk zones of yellow fever worldwide: a modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Yellow fever cases are under-reported and the exact distribution of the disease is unknown. An effective vaccine is available but more information is needed about which populations within risk zones should be targeted to implement interventions. Substantial outbreaks of yellow fever in Angola, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Brazil, coupled with the global expansion of the range of its main urban vector, Aedes aegypti, suggest that yellow fever has the propensity to spread further internationally. The aim of this study was to estimate the disease's contemporary distribution and potential for spread into new areas to help inform optimal control and prevention strategies. METHODS: We assembled 1155 geographical records of yellow fever virus infection in people from 1970 to 2016. We used a Poisson point process boosted regression tree model that explicitly incorporated environmental and biological explanatory covariates, vaccination coverage, and spatial variability in disease reporting rates to predict the relative risk of apparent yellow fever virus infection at a 5 × 5 km resolution across all risk zones (47 countries across the Americas and Africa). We also used the fitted model to predict the receptivity of areas outside at-risk zones to the introduction or reintroduction of yellow fever transmission. By use of previously published estimates of annual national case numbers, we used the model to map subnational variation in incidence of yellow fever across at-risk countries and to estimate the number of cases averted by vaccination worldwide. FINDINGS: Substantial international and subnational spatial variation exists in relative risk and incidence of yellow fever as well as varied success of vaccination in reducing incidence in several high-risk regions, including Brazil, Cameroon, and Togo. Areas with the highest predicted average annual case numbers include large parts of Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and South Sudan, where vaccination coverage in 2016 was estimated to be substantially less than the recommended threshold to prevent outbreaks. Overall, we estimated that vaccination coverage levels achieved by 2016 avert between 94 336 and 118 500 cases of yellow fever annually within risk zones, on the basis of conservative and optimistic vaccination scenarios. The areas outside at-risk regions with predicted high receptivity to yellow fever transmission (eg, parts of Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand) were less extensive than the distribution of the main urban vector, A aegypti, with low receptivity to yellow fever transmission in southern China, where A aegypti is known to occur. INTERPRETATION: Our results provide the evidence base for targeting vaccination campaigns within risk zones, as well as emphasising their high effectiveness. Our study highlights areas where public health authorities should be most vigilant for potential spread or importation events. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Patterns and drivers of tree Mortality in Iberian Forests: climatic effects are modified by competition

Tree mortality is a key process underlying forest dynamics and community assembly. Understanding how tree mortality is driven by simultaneous drivers is needed to evaluate potential effects of climate change on forest composition. Using repeat-measure information fromc.400,000 trees from the Spanish Forest Inventory, we quantified the relative importance of tree size, competition, climate and edaphic conditions on tree mortality of 11 species, and explored the combined effect of climate and competition. Tree mortality was affected by all of these multiple drivers, especially tree size and asymmetric competition, and strong interactions between climate and competition were found. All species showed L-shaped mortality patterns (i.e. showed decreasing mortality with tree size), but pines were more sensitive to asymmetric competition than broadleaved species. Among climatic variables, the negative effect of temperature on tree mortality was much larger than the effect of precipitation. Moreover, the effect of climate (mean annual temperature and annual precipitation) on tree mortality was aggravated at high competition levels for all species, but especially for broadleaved species. The significant interaction between climate and competition on tree mortality indicated that global change in Mediterranean regions, causing hotter and drier conditions and denser stands, could lead to profound effects on forest structure and composition. Therefore, to evaluate the potential effects of climatic change on tree mortality, forest structure must be considered, since two systems of similar composition but different structure could radically differ in their response to climatic conditions

Epidemiological data from the COVID-19 outbreak, real-time case information

Abstract: Cases of a novel coronavirus were first reported in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, in December 2019 and have since spread across the world. Epidemiological studies have indicated human-to-human transmission in China and elsewhere. To aid the analysis and tracking of the COVID-19 epidemic we collected and curated individual-level data from national, provincial, and municipal health reports, as well as additional information from online reports. All data are geo-coded and, where available, include symptoms, key dates (date of onset, admission, and confirmation), and travel history. The generation of detailed, real-time, and robust data for emerging disease outbreaks is important and can help to generate robust evidence that will support and inform public health decision making

Epidemiological data from the COVID-19 outbreak, real-time case information

Abstract: Cases of a novel coronavirus were first reported in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, in December 2019 and have since spread across the world. Epidemiological studies have indicated human-to-human transmission in China and elsewhere. To aid the analysis and tracking of the COVID-19 epidemic we collected and curated individual-level data from national, provincial, and municipal health reports, as well as additional information from online reports. All data are geo-coded and, where available, include symptoms, key dates (date of onset, admission, and confirmation), and travel history. The generation of detailed, real-time, and robust data for emerging disease outbreaks is important and can help to generate robust evidence that will support and inform public health decision making

Epidemiological data from the COVID-19 outbreak, real-time case information

Abstract: Cases of a novel coronavirus were first reported in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, in December 2019 and have since spread across the world. Epidemiological studies have indicated human-to-human transmission in China and elsewhere. To aid the analysis and tracking of the COVID-19 epidemic we collected and curated individual-level data from national, provincial, and municipal health reports, as well as additional information from online reports. All data are geo-coded and, where available, include symptoms, key dates (date of onset, admission, and confirmation), and travel history. The generation of detailed, real-time, and robust data for emerging disease outbreaks is important and can help to generate robust evidence that will support and inform public health decision making

Improved monitoring of clinical response in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus by longitudinal trend in soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule-1

This work was funded by Arthritis Research UK. MJL holds an Arthritis Research UK Clinician Scientist Fellowship (19631), and was previously supported by the St Thomas’ Lupus Trust. The study received support from the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR)-funded Flow Cytometry Core Facility and the Biomedical Research Centre based at Guy’s & St. Thomas’ National Health Service (NHS) Foundation Trust, in partnership with King’s College London

Variation in Childhood Diarrheal Morbidity and Mortality in Africa, 2000-2015.

BACKGROUND: Diarrheal diseases are the third leading cause of disease and death in children younger than 5 years of age in Africa and were responsible for an estimated 30 million cases of severe diarrhea (95% credible interval, 27 million to 33 million) and 330,000 deaths (95% credible interval, 270,000 to 380,000) in 2015. The development of targeted approaches to address this burden has been hampered by a paucity of comprehensive, fine-scale estimates of diarrhea-related disease and death among and within countries. METHODS: We produced annual estimates of the prevalence and incidence of diarrhea and diarrhea-related mortality with high geographic detail (5 km2) across Africa from 2000 through 2015. Estimates were created with the use of Bayesian geostatistical techniques and were calibrated to the results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016. RESULTS: The results revealed geographic inequality with regard to diarrhea risk in Africa. Of the estimated 330,000 childhood deaths that were attributable to diarrhea in 2015, more than 50% occurred in 55 of the 782 first-level administrative subdivisions (e.g., states). In 2015, mortality rates among first-level administrative subdivisions in Nigeria differed by up to a factor of 6. The case fatality rates were highly varied at the national level across Africa, with the highest values observed in Benin, Lesotho, Mali, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings showed concentrated areas of diarrheal disease and diarrhea-related death in countries that had a consistently high burden as well as in countries that had considerable national-level reductions in diarrhea burden. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.)

Safety and immunogenicity of rVSVΔG-ZEBOV-GP Ebola vaccine in adults and children in Lambaréné, Gabon: A phase I randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: The rVSVΔG-ZEBOV-GP vaccine prevented Ebola virus disease when used at 2 × 107 plaque-forming units (PFU) in a trial in Guinea. This study provides further safety and immunogenicity data. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A randomised, open-label phase I trial in Lambaréné, Gabon, studied 5 single intramuscular vaccine doses of 3 × 103, 3 × 104, 3 × 105, 3 × 106, or 2 × 107 PFU in 115 adults and a dose of 2 × 107 PFU in 20 adolescents and 20 children. The primary objective was safety and tolerability 28 days post-injection. Immunogenicity, viraemia, and shedding post-vaccination were evaluated as secondary objectives. In adults, mild-to-moderate adverse events were frequent, but there were no serious or severe adverse events related to vaccination. Before vaccination, Zaire Ebola virus (ZEBOV)-glycoprotein (GP)-specific and ZEBOV antibodies were detected in 11% and 27% of adults, respectively. In adults, 74%-100% of individuals who received a dose 3 × 104, 3 × 105, 3 × 106, or 2 × 107 PFU had a ≥4.0-fold increase in geometric mean titres (GMTs) of ZEBOV-GP-specific antibodies at day 28, reaching GMTs of 489 (95% CI: 264-908), 556 (95% CI: 280-1,101), 1,245 (95% CI: 899-1,724), and 1,503 (95% CI: 931-2,426), respectively. Twenty-two percent of adults had a ≥4-fold increase of ZEBOV antibodies, with GMTs at day 28 of 1,015 (647-1,591), 1,887 (1,154-3,085), 1,445 (1,013-2,062), and 3,958 (2,249-6,967) for the same doses, respectively. These antibodies persisted up to day 180 for doses ≥3 × 105 PFU. Adults with antibodies before vaccination had higher GMTs throughout. Neutralising antibodies were detected in more than 50% of participants at doses ≥3 × 105 PFU. As in adults, no serious or severe adverse events related to vaccine occurred in adolescents or children. At day 2, vaccine RNA titres were higher for adolescents and children than adults. At day 7, 78% of adolescents and 35% of children had recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus RNA detectable in saliva. The vaccine induced high GMTs of ZEBOV-GP-specific antibodies at day 28 in adolescents, 1,428 (95% CI: 1,025-1,989), and children, 1,620 (95% CI: 806-3,259), and in both groups antibody titres increased up to day 180. The absence of a control group, lack of stratification for baseline antibody status, and imbalances in male/female ratio are the main limitations of this study. CONCLUSIONS: Our data confirm the acceptable safety and immunogenicity profile of the 2 × 107 PFU dose in adults and support consideration of lower doses for paediatric populations and those who request boosting. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Pan African Clinical Trials Registry PACTR201411000919191