Some practical applications of neural networks in the electricity industry

The developm ent of an optimising model predictive controller for dom estic storage radiators w as the ultimate goal of this research project. Neural networks are used to create empirical m odels that are used to predict the likely temperature response of a room to the charging of a storage radiator. The charging strategy can then be optimised based on the real-time price of electricity. Neural network modelling is investigated by looking at the load forecasting problem. It is shown how accurate neural m odels can be created and demonstrated exactly how they process the data. Very specific rules are extracted from the neural network that can model the load to a reasonable accuracy. An efficient optimisation technique is sought by optimising the charging of a dom estic hot water tank based on actual consumption data and the pool price of electricity. Initially genetic algorithms were tried but their w ea k n esses are demonstrated. A stochastic hill climbing method w as found to be more suitable. Monetary saving of 40% over the existing E7 tariff w as common. The modelling and optimisation are brought together in a storage radiator simulation. There are improvements in cost and electricity consumption over E7 primarily due to the ability to look ahead and avoid overheating. A prototype neural controller is developed and tested in a real house. The results are very encouraging.Eng

Performance and structure of single-mode bosonic codes

The early Gottesman, Kitaev, and Preskill (GKP) proposal for encoding a qubit in an oscillator has recently been followed by cat- and binomial-code proposals. Numerically optimized codes have also been proposed, and we introduce new codes of this type here. These codes have yet to be compared using the same error model; we provide such a comparison by determining the entanglement fidelity of all codes with respect to the bosonic pure-loss channel (i.e., photon loss) after the optimal recovery operation. We then compare achievable communication rates of the combined encoding-error-recovery channel by calculating the channel's hashing bound for each code. Cat and binomial codes perform similarly, with binomial codes outperforming cat codes at small loss rates. Despite not being designed to protect against the pure-loss channel, GKP codes significantly outperform all other codes for most values of the loss rate. We show that the performance of GKP and some binomial codes increases monotonically with increasing average photon number of the codes. In order to corroborate our numerical evidence of the cat/binomial/GKP order of performance occurring at small loss rates, we analytically evaluate the quantum error-correction conditions of those codes. For GKP codes, we find an essential singularity in the entanglement fidelity in the limit of vanishing loss rate. In addition to comparing the codes, we draw parallels between binomial codes and discrete-variable systems. First, we characterize one- and two-mode binomial as well as multi-qubit permutation-invariant codes in terms of spin-coherent states. Such a characterization allows us to introduce check operators and error-correction procedures for binomial codes. Second, we introduce a generalization of spin-coherent states, extending our characterization to qudit binomial codes and yielding a new multi-qudit code.Comment: 34 pages, 11 figures, 4 tables. v3: published version. See related talk at https://absuploads.aps.org/presentation.cfm?pid=1351

Prayer and psychological health: a study among sixth-form pupils attending Catholic and Protestant schools in Northern Ireland

Eysenck's dimensional model of personality includes two indicators of psychological health, defined as neuroticism and psychoticism. In order to examine the association between psychological health and prayer, two samples of sixth-form pupils in Northern Ireland (16- to 18-year-olds) attending Catholic (N = 1246) and Protestant (N = 1060) schools completed the abbreviated Revised Eysenck Personality Questionnaire alongside a simple measure of prayer frequency. The data demonstrated a positive association between prayer frequency and better levels of psychological health as assessed by Eysenck's notion of psychoticism. Among pupils attending both Catholic and Protestant schools, higher levels of prayer were associated with lower psychoticism scores. Among pupils attending Catholic schools, however, higher levels of prayer were also associated with higher neuroticism scores

Metformin in non-diabetic hyperglycaemia: the GLINT feasibility RCT.

BACKGROUND: The treatment of people with diabetes with metformin can reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) and may reduce the risk of cancer. However, it is unknown whether or not metformin can reduce the risk of these outcomes in people with elevated blood glucose levels below the threshold for diabetes [i.e. non-diabetic hyperglycaemia (NDH)]. OBJECTIVE: To assess the feasibility of the Glucose Lowering In Non-diabetic hyperglycaemia Trial (GLINT) and to estimate the key parameters to inform the design of the full trial. These parameters include the recruitment strategy, randomisation, electronic data capture, postal drug distribution, retention, study medication adherence, safety monitoring and remote collection of outcome data. DESIGN: A multicentre, individually randomised, double-blind, parallel-group, pragmatic, primary prevention trial. Participants were individually randomised on a 1 : 1 basis, blocked within each site. SETTING: General practices and clinical research facilities in Cambridgeshire, Norfolk and Leicestershire. PARTICIPANTS: Males and females aged ≥ 40 years with NDH who had a high risk of CVD. INTERVENTIONS: Prolonged-release metformin (500 mg) (Glucophage® SR, Merck KGaA, Bedfont Cross, Middlesex, UK) or the matched placebo, up to three tablets per day, distributed by post. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Recruitment rates; adherence to study medication; laboratory results at baseline and 3 and 6 months; reliability and acceptability of study drug delivery; questionnaire return rates; and quality of life. RESULTS: We sent 5251 invitations, with 511 individuals consenting to participate. Of these, 249 were eligible and were randomised between March and November 2015 (125 to the metformin group and 124 to the placebo group). Participants were followed up for 0.99 years [standard deviation (SD) 0.30 years]. The use of electronic medical records to identify potentially eligible individuals in individual practices was resource intensive. Participants were generally elderly [mean age 70 years (SD 6.7 years)], overweight [mean body mass index 30.1 kg/m2 (SD 4.5 kg/m2)] and male (88%), and the mean modelled 10-year CVD risk was 28.8% (SD 8.5%). Randomisation, postal delivery of the study drug and outcome assessment using registers/medical records were feasible and acceptable to participants. Most participants were able to take three tablets per day, but premature discontinuation of the study drug was common (≈30% of participants by 6 months), although there were no differences between the groups. All randomised participants returned questionnaires at baseline and 67% of participants returned questionnaires by the end of the study. There was no between-group difference in Short Form questionnaire-8 items or EuroQol-5 Dimensions scores. Compared with placebo, metformin was associated with small improvements in the mean glycated haemoglobin level [-0.82 mmol/mol, 95% confidence interval (CI) -1.39 to -0.24 mmol/mol], mean estimated glomerular filtration rate (2.31 ml/minute/1.73 m2, 95% CI -0.2 to 4.81 ml/minute/1.73 m2) and mean low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level (-0.11 mmol/l, 95% CI -0.25 to 0.02 mmol/l) and a reduction in mean plasma vitamin B12 level (-16.4 ng/l, 95% CI -32.9 to -0.01 ng/l). There were 35 serious adverse events (13 in the placebo group, 22 in the metformin group), with none deemed to be treatment related. LIMITATIONS: Changes to sponsorship reduced the study duration, the limited availability of information in medical records reduced recruitment efficiency and discontinuation of study medication exceeded forecasts. CONCLUSIONS: A large, pragmatic trial comparing the effects of prolonged-release metformin and placebo on the risk of CVD events is potentially feasible. However, changes to the study design and conduct are recommended to enable an efficient scaling up of the trial. Recommendations include changing the inclusion criteria to recruit people with pre-existing CVD to increase the recruitment and event rates, using large primary/secondary care databases to increase recruitment rates, conducting follow-up remotely to improve efficiency and including a run-in period prior to randomisation to optimise trial adherence. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN34875079. FUNDING: The project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 22, No. 18. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information. Merck KGaA provided metformin and matching placebo

Clinical Meaningfulness of the Changes in Muscle Performance and Physical Function Associated With Testosterone Administration in Older Men With Mobility Limitation

Context. Testosterone in Older Men with Mobility Limitations Trial determined the effects of testosterone on muscle performance and physical function in older men with mobility limitation. Trial's Data and Safety Monitoring Board recommended enrollment cessation due to increased frequency of adverse events in testosterone arm. The changes in muscle performance and physical function were evaluated in relation to participant's perception of change. Methods. Men aged 65 years and older, with mobility limitation, total testosterone 100-350 ng/dL, or free testosterone less than 50 pg/mL, were randomized to placebo or 10 g testosterone gel daily for 6 months. Primary outcome was leg-press strength. Secondary outcomes included chest-press strength, stair-climb, 40-m walk, muscle mass, physical activity, self-reported function, and fatigue. Proportions of participants exceeding minimally important difference in study arms were compared. Results. Of 209 randomized participants, 165 had follow-up efficacy measures. Mean (SD) age was 74 (5.4) years and short physical performance battery score 7.7 (1.4). Testosterone arm exhibited greater improvements in leg-press strength, chest-press strength and power, and loaded stair-climb than placebo. Compared with placebo, significantly greater proportion of men receiving testosterone improved their leg-press and chest-press strengths (43% vs 18%, p = .01) and stair-climbing power (28% vs 10%, p = .03) more than minimally important difference. Increases in leg-press strength and stair-climbing power were associated with changes in testosterone levels and muscle mass. Physical activity, walking speed, self-reported function, and fatigue did not change. Conclusions. Testosterone administration in older men with mobility limitation was associated with patient-important improvements in muscle strength and stair-climbing power. Improvements in muscle strength and only some physical function measures should be weighed against the risk of adverse events in this populatio

Fundamentals of neurogastroenterology: Basic science

This review examines the fundamentals of neurogastroenterology that may underlie the pathophysiology of functional GI disorders (FGIDs). It was prepared by an invited committee of international experts and represents an abbreviated version of their consensus document that will be published in its entirety in the forthcoming book and online version entitled Rome IV. It emphasizes recent advances in our understanding of the enteric nervous system, sensory physiology underlying pain, and stress signaling pathways. There is also a focus on neuroimmmune signaling and intestinal barrier function, given the recent evidence implicating the microbiome, diet, and mucosal immune activation in FGIDs. Together, these advances provide a host of exciting new targets to identify and treat FGIDs, and new areas for future research into their pathophysiology

Orbital precession modulates interannual rainfall variability, as recorded in an Early Pleistocene speleothem

Interannual variability of African rainfall impacts local and global communities, but its past behavior and response in future climate projections are poorly understood. This is primarily due to short instrumental records and a lack of long high-resolution palaeoclimate proxy records. Here we present an annually resolved 91,000 year Early Pleistocene record of hydroclimate from the early homininbearing Makapansgat Valley, South Africa. Changes in speleothem annual band thickness are dominated by precession over four consecutive orbital cycles with strong millennial-scale periodicity. The frequency of interannual variability (2.0–6.5 yr oscillations) does not change systematically, yet its amplitude is modulated by the orbital forcing. These long-term characteristics of interannual variability are reproduced with transient climate model simulations of water balance for South Africa from the Late Pleistocene to Recent. Based on these results, we suggest that the frequency of interannual variations in southern African rainfall is likely to be stable under anthropogenic warming, but that the size of year-to-year variations may increase. We see an orbitally forced increase in the amplitude of interannual climate variability between 1.8 Ma and 1.7 Ma coincident with the first evidence for the Acheulean stone tool technology

Counter-Gradient Variation in Respiratory Performance of Coral Reef Fishes at Elevated Temperatures

The response of species to global warming depends on how different populations are affected by increasing temperature throughout the species' geographic range. Local adaptation to thermal gradients could cause populations in different parts of the range to respond differently. In aquatic systems, keeping pace with increased oxygen demand is the key parameter affecting species' response to higher temperatures. Therefore, respiratory performance is expected to vary between populations at different latitudes because they experience different thermal environments. We tested for geographical variation in respiratory performance of tropical marine fishes by comparing thermal effects on resting and maximum rates of oxygen uptake for six species of coral reef fish at two locations on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. The two locations, Heron Island and Lizard Island, are separated by approximately 1200 km along a latitudinal gradient. We found strong counter-gradient variation in aerobic scope between locations in four species from two families (Pomacentridae and Apogonidae). High-latitude populations (Heron Island, southern GBR) performed significantly better than low-latitude populations (Lizard Island, northern GBR) at temperatures up to 5°C above average summer surface-water temperature. The other two species showed no difference in aerobic scope between locations. Latitudinal variation in aerobic scope was primarily driven by up to 80% higher maximum rates of oxygen uptake in the higher latitude populations. Our findings suggest that compensatory mechanisms in high-latitude populations enhance their performance at extreme temperatures, and consequently, that high-latitude populations of reef fishes will be less impacted by ocean warming than will low-latitude populations

Evaluating model outputs using integrated global speleothem records of climate change since the last glacial

Although quantitative isotopic data from speleothems has been used to evaluate isotope-enabled model simulations, currently no consensus exists regarding the most appropriate methodology through which to achieve this. A number of modelling groups will be running isotope-enabled palaeoclimate simulations in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, so it is timely to evaluate different approaches to use the speleothem data for data-model comparisons. Here, we illustrate this using 456 globally-distributed speleothem δ18O records from an updated version of the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis (SISAL) database and palaeoclimate simulations generated using the ECHAM5-wiso isotope-enabled atmospheric circulation model. We show that the SISAL records reproduce the first-order spatial patterns of isotopic variability in the modern day, strongly supporting the application of this dataset for evaluating model-derived isotope variability into the past. However, the discontinuous nature of many speleothem records complicates procuring large numbers of records if data-model comparisons are made using the traditional approach of comparing anomalies between a control period and a given palaeoclimate experiment. To circumvent this issue, we illustrate techniques through which the absolute isotopic values during any time period could be used for model evaluation. Specifically, we show that speleothem isotope records allow an assessment of a model’s ability to simulate spatial isotopic trends. Our analyses provide a protocol for using speleothem isotopic data for model evaluation, including screening the observations to take into account the impact of speleothem mineralogy on 18O values, the optimum period for the modern observational baseline, and the selection of an appropriate time-window for creating means of the isotope data for palaeo time slices

Some Factors Affecting the Development of the Blackleg Disease of the Irish Potato

University of Minnesota Masters thesis. June 1922. Major: Agriculture. 1 computer file (PDF); 62 pages