Age-specific incidence of A/H1N1 2009 influenza infection in England from sequential antibody prevalence data using likelihood-based estimation.

Estimating the age-specific incidence of an emerging pathogen is essential for understanding its severity and transmission dynamics. This paper describes a statistical method that uses likelihoods to estimate incidence from sequential serological data. The method requires information on seroconversion intervals and allows integration of information on the temporal distribution of cases from clinical surveillance. Among a family of candidate incidences, a likelihood function is derived by reconstructing the change in seroprevalence from seroconversion following infection and comparing it with the observed sequence of positivity among the samples. This method is applied to derive the cumulative and weekly incidence of A/H1N1 pandemic influenza in England during the second wave using sera taken between September 2009 and February 2010 in four age groups (1-4, 5-14, 15-24, 25-44 years). The highest cumulative incidence was in 5-14 year olds (59%, 95% credible interval (CI): 52%, 68%) followed by 1-4 year olds (49%, 95% CI: 38%, 61%), rates 20 and 40 times higher respectively than estimated from clinical surveillance. The method provides a more accurate and continuous measure of incidence than achieved by comparing prevalence in samples grouped by time period

Numerical and in vitro experimental study of arterial deformation and buckling under hypertension and atherosclerotic conditions

Cardiovascular diseases remain the major cause of mortality worldwide. Pathologies of the vasculature such as atherosclerosis are often related to biochemical and genetic factors as well as mechanical effects that strongly change the function and shape of arteries. The present work is part of a general research project which aims to better understand the mechanical mechanisms responsible for atherosclerotic plaque formation and rupture. The chosen approach is to use numerical fluidstructure interaction (FSI) methods to study the relative influence of hemodynamic parameters on the structural stresses generated on plaques. To this aim, a numerical study of a simplified straight vessel exposed to lumen pressure was investigated under quiescent and steady flow conditions. As the internal pressure or the steady velocity increases, the vessel buckles lead-ing to a non-linear large deformation behaviour. The results have been validated using theoretical predictions for the buckling thresholds. Further studies on idealised cardiovascular conditions such as stenosis (i.e., lumen constriction) or aneurysm like (i.e., arterial wall expansion) formation have also been performed

Using the Indirect Cohort Design to Estimate the Effectiveness of the Seven Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine in England and Wales

BACKGROUND: The 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-7) was introduced in the United Kingdom in 2006 with a 2, 3 and 13 month schedule, and has led to large decreases in invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) caused by the vaccine serotypes in both vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts. We estimated the effectiveness of PCV-7 against IPD. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used enhanced surveillance data, collated at the Health Protection Agency, on vaccine type (n = 153) and non vaccine type (n = 919) IPD cases eligible for PCV-7. The indirect cohort method, a case-control type design which uses non vaccine type cases as controls, was used to estimate effectiveness of various numbers of doses as well as for each vaccine serotype. Possible bias with this design, caused by differential serotype replacement in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, was estimated after deriving formulae to quantify the bias. The results showed good effectiveness, increasing from 56% (95% confidence interval (CI): -7-82) for a single dose given under one year of age to 93% (95% CI: 70-98) for two doses under one year of age plus a booster dose in the second year of life. Serotype specific estimates indicated higher effectiveness against serotypes 4, 14 and 18C and lower effectiveness against 6B. Under the assumption of complete serotype replacement by non vaccine serotypes in carriage, we estimated that effectiveness estimates may be overestimated by about 2 to 5%. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows high effectiveness of PCV-7 under the reduced schedule used in the UK. This finding agrees with the large reductions seen in vaccine type IPD in recent years in England and Wales. The formulae derived to assess the bias of the indirect cohort method for PCV-7 can also be used when using the design for other vaccines that affect carriage such as the recently introduced 13 valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine

The Pine Needle, May 1947

Libraries and archives collect materials from different cultures and time periods to preserve and make available the historical record. As a result, materials such as those presented here may reflect sexist, misogynistic, abusive, racist, or discriminatory attitudes or actions that some may find disturbing, harmful, or difficult to view. Both a humor and literary magazine, The Pine Needle was a University of Maine student-produced periodical that began publication in the fall of 1946, the first post-World War II semester that saw GIs returning to campus. The Needle reflected an edginess and rebellion not found in previous student publications. While past student publications relied on euphemisms for alcohol and dating on campus, The Needle openly promoted the sexualization of co-eds and the use of drugs, tobacco, and alcohol by students who experienced war. In response to Alumni complaints that The Needle was ...filled with sex and drinking, the University Publications Committee instituted stricter controls. In this issue, the editorial staff announce that starting in Fall 1947, the publication would publish only four issues of the magazine each year—Fall, Christmas, Spring, and Graduation among other changes. Cover art for this issue is an unsigned ink illustration of chatting university students lined up outside a shop bearing a sign that reads Jifty Cleaners-Dyers. Signs in the shop window reads We Specialize in Grass Stains. 24 Hour Service

Generation time of the alpha and delta SARS-CoV-2 variants: an epidemiological analysis.

BACKGROUND: In May, 2021, the delta (B.1.617.2) SARS-CoV-2 variant became dominant in the UK, superseded by the omicron (B.1.1.529) variant in December, 2021. The delta variant is associated with increased transmissibility compared with the alpha variant, which was the dominant variant in the UK between December, 2020, and May, 2021. To understand transmission and the effectiveness of interventions, we aimed to investigate whether the delta variant generation time (the interval between infections in infector-infectee pairs) is shorter-ie, transmissions are happening more quickly-than that of the alpha variant. METHODS: In this epidemiological analysis, we analysed transmission data from an ongoing UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) prospective household study. Households were recruited to the study after an index case had a positive PCR test and genomic sequencing was used to determine the variant responsible. By fitting a mathematical transmission model to the data, we estimated the intrinsic generation time (which assumes a constant supply of susceptible individuals throughout infection) and the household generation time (which reflects realised transmission in the study households, accounting for susceptible depletion) for the alpha and delta variants. FINDINGS: Between February and August, 2021, 227 households consisting of 559 participants were recruited to the UKHSA study. The alpha variant was detected or assumed to be responsible for infections in 131 households (243 infections in 334 participants) recruited in February-May, and the delta variant in 96 households (174 infections in 225 participants) in May-August. The mean intrinsic generation time was shorter for the delta variant (4·7 days, 95% credible interval [CI] 4·1-5·6) than the alpha variant (5·5 days, 4·7-6·5), with 92% posterior probability. The mean household generation time was 28% (95% CI 0-48%) shorter for the delta variant (3·2 days, 95% CI 2·5-4·2) than the alpha variant (4·5 days, 3·7-5·4), with 97·5% posterior probability. INTERPRETATION: The delta variant transmits more quickly in households than the alpha variant, which can be attributed to faster depletion of susceptible individuals in households and a possible decrease in the intrinsic generation time. Interventions such as contact tracing, testing, and isolation might be less effective if transmission of the virus occurs quickly. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research, UK Health Security Agency, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, and UK Research and Innovation

Pneumococcal carriage following PCV13 delivered as one primary and one booster dose (1 + 1) compared to two primary doses and a booster (2 + 1) in UK infants

In January 2020 the UK changed from a 2 + 1 schedule for 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) to a 1 + 1 schedule (doses at 3 and 12 months) based on a randomized immunogenicity trial comparing the two schedules. Carriage prevalence measured at the time of booster and 6 months later in 191 of the 213 study infants was 57 % (109/191) and 60 % (114/190) respectively. There were eight episodes of vaccine-type (VT) or vaccine-related 6C carriage in the 2 + 1 and six in the 1 + 1 group; ≥4-fold rises in serotype-specific IgG in 71 children with paired post-booster and follow up blood samples at 21–33 months of age were found in 20 % (7/35) of the 2 + 1 and 15 % (6/41) of the 1 + 1 group. VTs identified in carriage and inferred from serology were similar comprising 3, 19A and 19F. Dropping a priming dose from the 2 + 1 PCV 13 schedule did not increase VT carriage in the study cohort. Ongoing population level carriage studies will be important to confirm this

Effectiveness of BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 against SARS-CoV-2 household transmission: a prospective cohort study in England

Background: The ability of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines to protect against infection and onward transmission determines whether immunisation can control global circulation. We estimated the effectiveness of Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA vaccine (BNT162b2) and Oxford AstraZeneca adenovirus vector vaccine (ChAdOx1) vaccines against acquisition and transmission of the Alpha and Delta variants in a prospective household study in England. Methods: Households were recruited based on adult purported index cases testing positive after reverse transcription-quantitative (RT-q)PCR testing of oral-nasal swabs. Purported index cases and their household contacts took oral-nasal swabs on days 1, 3 and 7 after enrolment and a subset of the PCR-positive swabs underwent genomic sequencing conducted on a subset. We used Bayesian logistic regression to infer vaccine effectiveness against acquisition and transmission, adjusted for age, vaccination history and variant. Results: Between 2 February 2021 and 10 September 2021, 213 index cases and 312 contacts were followed up. After excluding households lacking genomic proximity (N=2) or with unlikely serial intervals (N=16), 195 households with 278 contacts remained, of whom 113 (41%) became PCR positive. Delta lineages had 1.53 times the risk (95% Credible Interval: 1.04 – 2.20) of transmission than Alpha; contacts older than 18 years old were 1.48 (1.20 – 1.91) and 1.02 (0.93 – 1.16) times more likely to acquire an Alpha or Delta infection than children. Effectiveness of two doses of BNT162b2 against transmission of Delta was 36% (-1%, 66%) and 49% (18%, 73%) for ChAdOx1, similar to their effectiveness for Alpha. Protection against infection with Alpha was higher than for Delta, 69% (9%, 95%) vs. 18% (-11%, 59%), respectively, for BNT162b2 and 24% (-41%, 72%) vs. 9% (-15%, 42%), respectively, for ChAdOx1.Conclusions: BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 reduce transmission of the Delta variant from breakthrough infections in the household setting, although their protection against infection within this setting is low

Lifestyle and vascular risk effects on MRI-based biomarkers of Alzheimer’s disease: a cross-sectional study of middle-aged adults from the broader New York City area

Objective To investigate the effects of lifestyle and vascular-related risk factors for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) on in vivo MRI-based brain atrophy in asymptomatic young to middle-aged adults. Design Cross-sectional, observational. Setting Broader New York City area. Two research centres affiliated with the Alzheimer’s disease Core Center at New York University School of Medicine. Participants We studied 116 cognitively normal healthy research participants aged 30–60 years, who completed a three-dimensional T1-weighted volumetric MRI and had lifestyle (diet, physical activity and intellectual enrichment), vascular risk (overweight, hypertension, insulin resistance, elevated cholesterol and homocysteine) and cognition (memory, executive function, language) data. Estimates of cortical thickness for entorhinal (EC), posterior cingulate, orbitofrontal, inferior and middle temporal cortex were obtained by use of automated segmentation tools. We applied confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modelling to evaluate the associations between lifestyle, vascular risk, brain and cognition. Results Adherence to a Mediterranean-style diet (MeDi) and insulin sensitivity were both positively associated with MRI-based cortical thickness (diet: βs≥0.26, insulin sensitivity βs≥0.58, P≤0.008). After accounting for vascular risk, EC in turn explained variance in memory (P≤0.001). None of the other lifestyle and vascular risk variables were associated with brain thickness. In addition, the path associations between intellectual enrichment and better cognition were significant (βs≥0.25 P≤0.001), as were those between overweight and lower cognition (βs≥-0.22, P≤0.01). Conclusions In cognitively normal middle-aged adults, MeDi and insulin sensitivity explained cortical thickness in key brain regions for AD, and EC thickness predicted memory performance in turn. Intellectual activity and overweight were associated with cognitive performance through different pathways. Our findings support further investigation of lifestyle and vascular risk factor modification against brain ageing and AD. More studies with larger samples are needed to replicate these research findings in more diverse, community-based settings

The Fourteenth Data Release of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey: First Spectroscopic Data from the extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey and from the second phase of the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment

The fourth generation of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS-IV) has been in operation since July 2014. This paper describes the second data release from this phase, and the fourteenth from SDSS overall (making this, Data Release Fourteen or DR14). This release makes public data taken by SDSS-IV in its first two years of operation (July 2014-2016). Like all previous SDSS releases, DR14 is cumulative, including the most recent reductions and calibrations of all data taken by SDSS since the first phase began operations in 2000. New in DR14 is the first public release of data from the extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS); the first data from the second phase of the Apache Point Observatory (APO) Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE-2), including stellar parameter estimates from an innovative data driven machine learning algorithm known as "The Cannon"; and almost twice as many data cubes from the Mapping Nearby Galaxies at APO (MaNGA) survey as were in the previous release (N = 2812 in total). This paper describes the location and format of the publicly available data from SDSS-IV surveys. We provide references to the important technical papers describing how these data have been taken (both targeting and observation details) and processed for scientific use. The SDSS website (www.sdss.org) has been updated for this release, and provides links to data downloads, as well as tutorials and examples of data use. SDSS-IV is planning to continue to collect astronomical data until 2020, and will be followed by SDSS-V.Comment: SDSS-IV collaboration alphabetical author data release paper. DR14 happened on 31st July 2017. 19 pages, 5 figures. Accepted by ApJS on 28th Nov 2017 (this is the "post-print" and "post-proofs" version; minor corrections only from v1, and most of errors found in proofs corrected