Modeling spatiotemporal abundance of mobile wildlife in highly variable environments using boosted GAMLSS hurdle models

Modeling organism distributions from survey data involves numerous statistical challenges, including accounting for zero‐inflation, overdispersion, and selection and incorporation of environmental covariates. In environments with high spatial and temporal variability, addressing these challenges often requires numerous assumptions regarding organism distributions and their relationships to biophysical features. These assumptions may limit the resolution or accuracy of predictions resulting from survey‐based distribution models. We propose an iterative modeling approach that incorporates a negative binomial hurdle, followed by modeling of the relationship of organism distribution and abundance to environmental covariates using generalized additive models (GAM) and generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS). Our approach accounts for key features of survey data by separating binary (presence‐absence) from count (abundance) data, separately modeling the mean and dispersion of count data, and incorporating selection of appropriate covariates and response functions from a suite of potential covariates while avoiding overfitting. We apply our modeling approach to surveys of sea duck abundance and distribution in Nantucket Sound (Massachusetts, USA), which has been proposed as a location for offshore wind energy development. Our model results highlight the importance of spatiotemporal variation in this system, as well as identifying key habitat features including distance to shore, sediment grain size, and seafloor topographic variation. Our work provides a powerful, flexible, and highly repeatable modeling framework with minimal assumptions that can be broadly applied to the modeling of survey data with high spatiotemporal variability. Applying GAMLSS models to the count portion of survey data allows us to incorporate potential overdispersion, which can dramatically affect model results in highly dynamic systems. Our approach is particularly relevant to systems in which little a priori knowledge is available regarding relationships between organism distributions and biophysical features, since it incorporates simultaneous selection of covariates and their functional relationships with organism responses

Protease inhibitor monotherapy for long-term management of HIV infection: a randomised, controlled, open-label, non-inferiority trial

BACKGROUND: Standard-of-care antiretroviral therapy (ART) uses a combination of drugs deemed essential to minimise treatment failure and drug resistance. Protease inhibitors are potent, with a high genetic barrier to resistance, and have potential use as monotherapy after viral load suppression is achieved with combination treatment. We aimed to assess clinical risks and benefits of protease inhibitor monotherapy in long-term clinical use: in particular, the effect on drug resistance and future treatment options. METHODS: In this pragmatic, parallel-group, randomised, controlled, open-label, non-inferiority trial, we enrolled adults (≥18 years of age) positive for HIV attending 43 public sector treatment centres in the UK who had suppressed viral load (<50 copies per mL) for at least 24 weeks on combination ART with no change in the previous 12 weeks and a CD4 count of more than 100 cells per μL. Participants were randomly allocated (1:1) to maintain ongoing triple therapy (OT) or to switch to a strategy of physician-selected ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitor monotherapy (PI-mono); we recommended ritonavir (100 mg)-boosted darunavir (800 mg) once daily or ritonavir (100 mg)-boosted lopinavir (400 mg) twice daily, with prompt return to combination treatment if viral load rebounded. All treatments were oral. Randomisation was with permuted blocks of varying size and stratified by centre and baseline ART; we used a computer-generated, sequentially numbered randomisation list. The primary outcome was loss of future drug options, defined as new intermediate-level or high-level resistance to one or more drugs to which the patient's virus was deemed sensitive at trial entry (assessed at 3 years; non-inferiority margin of 10%). We estimated probability of rebound and resistance with Kaplan-Meier analysis. Analyses were by intention to treat. This trial is registered with the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number registry, number ISRCTN04857074. FINDINGS: Between Nov 4, 2008, and July 28, 2010, we randomly allocated 587 participants to OT (291) or PI-mono (296). At 3 years, one or more future drug options had been lost in two participants (Kaplan-Meier estimate 0·7%) in the OT group and six (2·1%) in the PI-mono group: difference 1·4% (-0·4 to 3·4); non-inferiority shown. 49 (16·8%) participants in the OT group and 65 (22·0%) in the PI-mono group had grade 3 or 4 clinical adverse events (difference 5·1% [95% CI -1·3 to 11·5]; p=0·12); 45 (six treatment related) and 56 (three treatment related) had serious adverse events. INTERPRETATION: Protease inhibitor monotherapy, with regular viral load monitoring and prompt reintroduction of combination treatment for rebound, preserved future treatment options and did not change overall clinical outcomes or frequency of toxic effects. Protease inhibitor monotherapy is an acceptable alternative for long-term clinical management of HIV infection. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research

The eventization of leisure and the strange death of alternative Leeds

The communicative potential of city spaces as leisure spaces is a central assumption of political activism and the creation of alternative, counter-cultural and subcultural scenes. However, such potential for city spaces is limited by the gentrification, privatization and eventization of city centres in the wake of wider societal and cultural struggles over leisure, work and identity formation. In this paper, we present research on alternative scenes in the city of Leeds to argue that the eventization of the city centre has led to a marginalization and of alternative scenes on the fringes of the city. Such marginalization has not caused the death of alternative Leeds or political activism associated with those scenes—but it has changed the leisure spaces (physical, political and social) in which alternative scenes contest the mainstream

Spatially Explicit Network Analysis Reveals Multi‐Species Annual Cycle Movement Patterns of Sea Ducks

Conservation of long‐distance migratory species poses unique challenges. Migratory connectivity, that is, the extent to which groupings of individuals at breeding sites are maintained in wintering areas, is frequently used to evaluate population structure and assess use of key habitat areas. However, for species with complex or variable annual cycle movements, this traditional bimodal framework of migratory connectivity may be overly simplistic. Like many other waterfowl, sea ducks often travel to specific pre‐ and post‐breeding sites outside their nesting and wintering areas to prepare for migration by feeding extensively and, in some cases, molting their flight feathers. These additional migrations may play a key role in population structure, but are not included in traditional models of migratory connectivity. Network analysis, which applies graph theory to assess linkages between discrete locations or entities, offers a powerful tool for quantitatively assessing the contributions of different sites used throughout the annual cycle to complex spatial networks. We collected satellite telemetry data on annual cycle movements of 672 individual sea ducks of five species from throughout eastern North America and the Great Lakes. From these data, we constructed a multi‐species network model of migratory patterns and site use over the course of breeding, molting, wintering, and migratory staging. Our results highlight inter‐ and intra‐specific differences in the patterns and complexity of annual cycle movement patterns, including the central importance of staging and molting sites in James Bay, the St. Lawrence River, and southern New England to multi‐species annual cycle habitat linkages, and highlight the value of Long‐tailed Ducks (Calengula haemalis) as an umbrella species to represent the movement patterns of multiple sea duck species. We also discuss potential applications of network migration models to conservation prioritization, identification of population units, and integrating different data streams

Implanted Satellite Transmitters Affect Sea Duck Movement Patterns at Short and Long Timescales

Studies of the effects of transmitters on wildlife often focus on survival. However, sublethal behavioral changes resulting from radio-marking have the potential to affect inferences from telemetry data and may vary based on individual and environmental characteristics. We used a long-term, multi-species tracking study of sea ducks to assess behavioral patterns at multiple temporal scales following implantation of intracoelomic satellite transmitters. We applied state-space models to assess short-term behavioral patterns in 476 individuals with implanted satellite transmitters, as well as comparing breeding site attendance and migratory phenology across multiple years after capture. In the short term, our results suggest an increase in dispersive behavior immediately following capture and transmitter implantation; however, behavior returned to seasonally average patterns within ~5 days after release. Over multiple years, we found that breeding site attendance by both males and females was depressed during the first breeding season after radio-marking relative to subsequent years, with larger relative decreases in breeding site attendance among males than females. We also found that spring and breeding migrations occurred later in the first year after radio-marking than in subsequent years. Across all behavioral effects, the severity of behavioral change often varied by species, sex, age, and capture season. We conclude that, although individuals appear to adjust relatively quickly (i.e. within 1 week) to implanted satellite transmitters, changes in breeding phenology may occur over the longer term and should be considered when analyzing and reporting telemetry data

Agribusiness Sheep Updates - 2004 - Part 1

Proceedings of the Agribusiness Sheep Updates - 2004 Forward Dr Mark Dolling Manager, Sheep Industries and Pasture, Department of Agriculture Western Australia Keynotes Australian Wool Innovation Limited DR LEN STEPHENS AUSTRALIAN WOOL INNOVATION LIMITED (AWI) Commercialisation of Sheepmeat Eating Quality Outcomes, David Thomason, General Manger Marketing Meat & livestock Australia Limited PLENARY The Fitness of the Future Merino, Norm Adams and Shimin Liu, CSIRO Livestock Industries Ovine Johne’s Disease – Managing the Disease, Managing the Issues, PETER BUCKMAN, CHIEF VETERINARY OFFICER, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE WESTERN AUSTRALIA Animal Welfare – Changes in Latitudes Changes in Attitudes, Michael Paton and Dianne Evans, Department of Agriculture Western Australian. Live Sheep Exports, JOHN EDWARDS. CHAIRMAN, WESTERN AUSTRALIAN LIVE SHEEP EXPORTERS ASSOCIATION MeCustomising to the Needs of the Customer – Insights from the New Zealand Merino Experience, DR SCOTT CHAMPION, RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT AND PRODUCT INNOVATION MANAGER, THE NEW ZEALAND MERINO COMPANY LIMITED Agribusiness Sheep Updates Conference -Economic and Financial Market Update Alan Langford, Economist, BankWest Concurrent sessions - Meeting the Market Breeding Wool to Address Consumer Requirements in Fabrics A.C. SCHLINK CSIRO Livestock Industries, J.C. GREEFF AND M. E. LADYMAN Department of Agriculture Western Australia Fibre Contribution to Retail Demand for Knitwear Melanie LadymanA and John StantonAB ADepartment of Agriculture Western Australia and BCurtin University of Technology Sustainable Merino, is this the Future for Merino? Stuart Adams, iZWool International P/L Meeting lamb Market Specs from Crossbred Ewes Dr. Neal Fogarty, NSW Agriculture and the Australian Sheep Industry CRC Use of Serial Body Weight Measurements in Prime Lamb Finishing Systems Matthew Kelly, CSIRO Livestock Industries, James Skerritt, Ian McFarland Department of Agriculture Western Australia, Australian Sheep Industry CR

Decreased expression of the mitochondrial bcat protein correlates with improved patient survival in idh-wt gliomas

Background and research question: Gliomas represent 43% of all solid intracranial tumours, of which glioblastomas have the poorest prognosis. Recently, the human cytosolic branched-chain aminotransferase protein (hBCATc), which metabolises the branched-chain amino acids (BCAA), was identified as a biomarker and therapeutic target for glioblastomas carrying wild-type isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH-WT) genes. However, the clinical utility of the mitochondrial isoform, hBCATm, which also metabolises BCAAs, was not determined nor its potential role in predicting patient survival.Methods: Glioblastomas, of grades II-IV, from 53 patients were graded by a neuropathologist, where the IDH and MGMT status were assessed. Tumours positive for hBCATm, hBCATc and BCKDC were characterised using immunohistochemistry and Western blot analysis using antibodies specific to these proteins.Results: Here, we report that in IDH-WT tumours, the expression of hBCATm is significantly increased (p=0.034) relative to IDH mutation gliomas, and significantly correlates with patient survival, on Kaplan-Meier analysis, where low hBCATm expression is a positive prognostic factor (p=0.003). Moreover, increased hBCATm expression in these glioblastomas correlated with tumour grade indicating their role as a predictive biomarker of glioma progression. Multiple banding was observed for the branched-chain α-keto acid dehydrogenase complex, which catalyses the committed step in BCAA metabolism, but a significant change in expression was absent (p=0.690). Conclusion: Until now, IDH-WT glioblastomas have a uniformly poor prognosis, however we demonstrate for the first time that relatively low hBCATm may select for a better performing subset within this group and may represent a therapeutic target in these hard to treat patients

Melting and differentiation of early-formed asteroids: The perspective from high precision oxygen isotope studies

A number of distinct methodologies are available for determining the oxygen isotope composition of minerals and rocks, these include laser-assisted fluorination, secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS)and UV laser ablation. In this review we focus on laser-assisted fluorination, which currently achieves the highest levels of precision available for oxygen isotope analysis. In particular, we examine how results using this method have furthered our understanding of early-formed differentiated meteorites. Due to its rapid reaction times and low blank levels, laser-assisted fluorination has now largely superseded the conventional externally-heated Ni “bomb” technique for bulk analysis. Unlike UV laser ablation and SIMS analysis, laser-assisted fluorination is not capable of focused spot analysis. While laser fluorination is now a mature technology, further analytical improvements are possible via refinements to the construction of sample chambers, clean-up lines and the use of ultra-high resolution mass spectrometers. High-precision oxygen isotope analysis has proved to be a particularly powerful technique for investigating the formation and evolution of early-formed differentiated asteroids and has provided unique insights into the interrelationships between various groups of achondrites. A clear example of this is seenin samples that lie close to the terrestrial fractionation line (TFL). Based on the data from conventional oxygen isotope analysis, it was suggested that the main-group pallasites, the howardite eucrite diogenite suite (HEDs) and mesosiderites could all be derived from a single common parent body. However,high precision analysis demonstrates that main-group pallasites have a Δ17O composition that is fully resolvable from that of the HEDs and mesosiderites, indicating the involvement of at least two parent bodies. The range of Δ17O values exhibited by an achondrite group provides a useful means of assessing the extent to which their parent body underwent melting and isotopic homogenization. Oxygen isotope analysis can also highlight relationships between ungrouped achondrites and the more well-populated groups. A clear example of this is the proposed link between the evolved GRA 06128/9 meteorites and the brachinites. The evidence from oxygen isotopes, in conjunction with that from other techniques, indicates that we have samples from approximately 110 asteroidal parent bodies (∼60 irons, ∼35 achondrites and stony-iron, and ∼15 chondrites) in our global meteorite collection. However, compared to the likely size of the original protoplanetary asteroid population, this is an extremely low value. In addition, almost all of the differentiated samples (achondrites, stony-iron and irons) are derived from parent bodies that were highly disrupted early in their evolution. High-precision oxygen isotope analysis of achondrites provides some important insights into the origin of mass-independent variation in the early Solar System. In particular, the evidence from various primitive achondrite groups indicates that both the slope 1 (Y&R) and CCAM lines are of primordial significance. Δ17O differences between water ice and silicate-rich solids were probably the initial source of the slope 1 anomaly. These phases most likely acquired their isotopic composition as a result of UV photo-dissociation of CO that took place either in the early solar nebula or precursor giant molecular cloud. Such small-scale isotopic heterogeneities were propagated into larger-sized bodies, such as asteroids and planets, as a result of early Solar System processes, including dehydration, aqueous alteration,melting and collisional interactions