Association of ABO blood group with severe falciparum malaria in adults: case control study and meta-analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Erythrocyte-associated antigenic polymorphisms or their absence have perhaps evolved in the human population to protect against malarial infection. Studies in various populations consistently demonstrate that blood group 'O' confers resistance against severe falciparum infection. In India, Odisha state has one of the highest incidences of <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>infection and contributes to the highest number of deaths by falciparum malaria. This study aims to evaluate the relationship between ABO blood group and severe malaria in an adult population at the tertiary care centre in Odisha.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A total of 353 <it>P. falciparum </it>infected subjects and 174 healthy controls were screened for ABO blood group. Falciparum-infected individuals were categorized as severe malaria and uncomplicated malaria. Severe malaria was further clinically phenotyped into cerebral malaria, non-cerebral severe malaria and multi-organ dysfunction. A meta-analysis was performed to assess the role of ABO blood group in severe malaria.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Frequency of blood group 'B' was significantly higher in patients with severe malaria compared to the uncomplicated cases (P < 0.0001; OR = 4.09) and healthy controls (P < 0.0001; OR = 2.79). Irrespective of the level of clinical severity, blood group 'B' was significantly associated with cerebral malaria (P < 0.0001; OR = 5.95), multi-organ dysfunction (P < 0.0001; OR = 4.81) and non-cerebral severe malaria patients (P = 0.001; OR = 3.02) compared to the uncomplicated category. Prevalence of 'O' group in uncomplicated malaria (P < 0.0001; OR = 2.81) and healthy controls (P = 0.0003; OR = 2.16) was significantly high compared to severe malaria. Meta-analysis of previous studies, including the current one, highlighted the protective nature of blood group 'O' to severe malaria (P = 0.01). On the other hand, carriers of blood group 'A' (P = 0.04) and 'AB' (P = 0.04) were susceptible to malaria severity.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Results of the current study indicate that blood group 'O' is associated with reduced and 'B' blood group with increased risk of development of severe malaria in Odisha, India. Meta-analysis also supports the protective nature of blood group 'O' from severe falciparum infection.</p

A trial sequential meta-analysis of TNF-α –308G\u3eA (rs800629) gene polymorphism and susceptibility to colorectal cancer

© 2019 The Author(s). Purpose: Tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), secreted by the activated macrophages, may participate in the onset and progression of colorectal cancer (CRC). The association of TNF-α –308 G\u3eA (rs1800629) single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) with CRC risk has been investigated by many studies but the results are inconclusive. A trial sequential meta-analysis was performed for precise estimation of the relationship between TNF-α –308 G\u3eA gene polymorphism with CRC risk. Methods: Medline (PubMed), EMBASE (Excerpta-Medica) and Google Scholar were mined for relevant articles. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated to estimate the significance of association. Results: The pooled analysis indicated no risk associated with TNF-α –308 G\u3eA SNP and overall CRC risk in five genetic comparison models, i.e. allelic (A vs. G: P = 0.524; OR = 1.074, 95% CI = 0.863–1.335), homozygous (AA vs. GG: P = 0.489; OR = 1.227, 95% CI = 0.688–2.188), heterozygous (AG vs. GG: P = 0.811; OR = 1.024, 95% CI = 0.843–1.244), dominant (AA+AG vs. GG: P = 0.630; OR = 1.055, 95% CI = 0.849–1.311) and recessive (AA vs. AG+GG: P = 0.549; OR = 1.181, 95% CI = 0.686–2.033). Subgroup analysis revealed that TNF-α –308 G\u3eA SNP is associated with reduced risk of CRC in Asian ethnicity. The study showed no publication bias. Conclusions: No association of TNF-α –308 G\u3eA SNP with overall CRC risk was found. This SNP is likely to be protective against CRC in Asian population when compared with Caucasian population. Larger prospective-epidemiological studies are warranted to elucidate the roles of TNF-α –308 G\u3eA SNP in the etiology of CRC and to endorse the present findings

Genomska tipizacija i filogenetska analiza izolata pasjeg parvovirusa izdvojenih u državi Odisha u Indiji.

Canine parvovirus type 2 (CPV-2) comprises three major antigenic variants CPV-2a, CPV-2b and CPV-2c. Their mutated variants in geographically distinct locations need to be investigated to understand viral evolution and for development of effective management measures. In the present study, 71 faecal and 12 blood samples from suspected dogs in the state of Odisha, India were analyzed by PCR. Faecal lysate, extracted by the fast boiling method was found to be more sensitive as a template for PCR compared to DNA extracted from faecal samples by the phenol-chloroform method. The results revealed 29 positive cases (583 bp amplicon) out of 71 faecal samples, and 5 positive cases out of 12 blood samples examined, with a few variations in the results from blood and faecal samples in the same cases, thus suggesting the necessity of screening both blood and faecal samples for diagnosis. Restriction digestion of the 583 bp PCR amplicon with MboII (PCR-RFLP) confirmed the strain not to be CPV-2c. Further sequencing of the 583 bp fragments recognized the variant as one of the mutated CPV-2a strain. Interestingly, an additional presence of CPV-2a mutant of 525 bp was observed in eleven of the positive faecal samples, along with the 583 bp fragment in PCR that needs further characterization. These two CPV-2a variants shared a common clade with other CPV-2a variants in the phylogenetic tree separating CPV-2b and CPV-2c. Our results confirm the dynamic changes in CPV variants and emphasize the importance of CPV surveillance for understanding of viral epidemiology.Pasji parvovirus tip 2 (PPV-2) ima tri glavne antigenske varijante: PPV-2a, PPV-2b i PPV-2c. Radi razumijevanja njegove evolucije i razvijanja učinkovitih mjera suzbijanja potrebno je istražiti njegove mutante iz različitih geografskih područja. U ovom je radu lančanom reakcijom polimerazom bio pretražen 71 uzorak fecesa i 12 uzoraka krvi pasa sa sumnjom na parvovirusnu infekciju u državi Odisha u Indiji. Postupak dobivanja fekalnog lizata brzim ključanjem pri 100 °C pokazao se osjetljivijim u odnosu na ekstrakciju DNA iz uzoraka fecesa fenol-kloroformom. Rezultati su pokazali da je od 71 pretraženog uzorka fecesa 29 bilo pozitivnih (583 bp umnožak), a od 12 pretraženih uzoraka krvi sedam pozitivnih s različitim nalazima kod istih slučajeva, što govori da je za postavljanje dijagnoze potrebno pretražiti oba uzorka od iste životinje. Cijepanje odsječka 583 bp restrikcijskim enzimom MboII (PCR-RFLP) pokazalo je da izdvojeni soj ne pripada PPV-2c. Daljnjim sekvencioniranjem fragmenata od 583 bp pokazalo se da izolat pripada mutiranoj varijanti PPV-2a. Zanimljivo je da je u 11 pozitivnih uzoraka fecesa usporedno s fragmentima od 583 bp bila dokazana i prisutnost mutanta PPV-2a s fragmentom od 525 bp što iziskuje daljnju karakterizaciju. Te dvije varijante PPV-2a svrstane su u zajedničku skupinu u filogenetskom stablu, različitu od PPV-2b i PPV-2c. Naši rezultati potvrđuju dinamiku promjena varijanata PPV s naglaskom na važnost istraživanja za razumijevanje njegove epizootiologije

Association of MBL2 gene polymorphisms with pulmonary tuberculosis susceptibility: Trial sequence meta-analysis as evidence

© 2019 Mandal et al. Background: Mannose-binding lectin (MBL) or mannose-binding protein (MBP), encoded by MBL2 gene and secreted by the liver, activates complement system through lectin pathway in innate immunity against the host’s infection. Conflictingly, a number of MBL2 variants, rs1800450 (A\u3eB), rs1800451 (A\u3eC), rs5030737 (A\u3eD), rs7096206 (Y\u3eX), rs11003125 (H\u3eL), and rs7095891 (P\u3eQ) allele, have been found to be associated with compromised serum levels and pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) susceptibility. The present meta-analysis study was performed to evaluate the potential association of these MBL2 gene variants with PTB susceptibility. Materials and methods: A quantitative synthesis was performed on PubMed (Medline), EMBASE, and Google Scholar web database searches. A meta-analysis was performed to calculate the pooled odds ratios and 95% CIs for all the genetic models. Results: A total of 14 eligible studies were included to analyze their pooled data for associations between alleles, genotypes, and minor allele carriers. The statistical analysis revealed the significant reduced PTB risk with homozygous variant genotype of rs1800451 polymorphism (CC vs AA: P=0.043; OR =0.828, 95% CI =0.689–0.994). Contrary to this, the variant allele of rs5030737 polymorphism showed association with increased PTB risk (D vs A: P=0.026; OR =1.563, 95% CI =1.054–2.317). However, the other genetic models of rs1800450 (A\u3eB), rs7096206 (Y\u3eX), and rs11003125 (H\u3eL) MBL2 gene polymorphisms did not divulge any association with PTB susceptibility. Conclusion: The current meta-analysis concludes that rs1800451 (A\u3eC) and rs5030737 (A\u3eD) polymorphisms of MBL2 gene play a significant role in PTB susceptibility. Further, well-designed epidemiological studies with larger sample size including consideration of environmental factors are warranted for the future

Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Gene I/D Polymorphism Is Associated With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Susceptibility: An Updated Meta-Analysis and Trial Sequential Analysis

Angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) gene is indispensable for endothelial control and vascular tone regulatory systems, usually affected in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE). ACE insertion/deletion (I/D) polymorphism may influence the progress of SLE. Earlier studies have investigated this association without any consistency in results. We performed this meta-analysis to evaluate the precise association between ACE I/D polymorphism and SLE susceptibility. The relevant studies were searched until December, 2017 using Medline (PubMed), Google-Scholar and EMBASE search engines. Twenty-five published studies involving 3,308 cases and 4,235 controls were included in this meta-analysis. Statistically significant increased risk was found for allelic (D vs. I: p = 0.007; OR = 1.202, 95% CI = 1.052–1.374), homozygous (DD vs. II: p = 0.025; OR = 1.347, 95% CI = 1.038–1.748), dominant (DD+ID vs. II: p = 0.002; OR = 1.195, 95% CI = 1.070–1.334), and recessive (DD vs. ID+II: p = 0.023; OR = 1.338, 95% CI = 1.042–1.718) genetic models. Subgroup analysis stratified by Asian ethnicity revealed significant risk of SLE in allelic (D vs. I: p = 0.045; OR = 1.238, 95% CI = 1.005–1.525) and marginal risk in dominant (DD+ID vs. II: p = 0.056; OR = 1.192, 95% CI = 0.995–1.428) models; whereas, no association was observed for Caucasian and African population. Publication bias was absent. In conclusion, ACE I/D polymorphism has significant role in overall SLE risk and it can be exploited as a prognostic marker for early SLE predisposition

Dynamics of Hot QCD Matter -- Current Status and Developments

The discovery and characterization of hot and dense QCD matter, known as Quark Gluon Plasma (QGP), remains the most international collaborative effort and synergy between theorists and experimentalists in modern nuclear physics to date. The experimentalists around the world not only collect an unprecedented amount of data in heavy-ion collisions, at Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC), at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) in New York, USA, and the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), at CERN in Geneva, Switzerland but also analyze these data to unravel the mystery of this new phase of matter that filled a few microseconds old universe, just after the Big Bang. In the meantime, advancements in theoretical works and computing capability extend our wisdom about the hot-dense QCD matter and its dynamics through mathematical equations. The exchange of ideas between experimentalists and theoreticians is crucial for the progress of our knowledge. The motivation of this first conference named "HOT QCD Matter 2022" is to bring the community together to have a discourse on this topic. In this article, there are 36 sections discussing various topics in the field of relativistic heavy-ion collisions and related phenomena that cover a snapshot of the current experimental observations and theoretical progress. This article begins with the theoretical overview of relativistic spin-hydrodynamics in the presence of the external magnetic field, followed by the Lattice QCD results on heavy quarks in QGP, and finally, it ends with an overview of experiment results.Comment: Compilation of the contributions (148 pages) as presented in the `Hot QCD Matter 2022 conference', held from May 12 to 14, 2022, jointly organized by IIT Goa & Goa University, Goa, Indi

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODErn), to generate cause fractions and cause specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NC Ds) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73.4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72.5-74.1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 186% (17.9-19.6), and injuries 8.0% (7.7-8.2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22.7% (21.5-23.9), representing an additional 7.61 million (7. 20-8.01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7.9% (7.08.8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 222% (20.0-24.0) and the death rate by 31.8% (30.1-33.3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2.3% (0-5-4-0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13.7% (12.2-15.1) to 57.9 deaths (55.9-59.2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118.0% (88.8-148.6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36.4% (32.2-40.6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33.6% (31.2-36.1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respirator}, infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990 neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. Interpretation Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress

Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning