Foreign Bank Entry and Business Volatility: Evidence from U.S. States and Other Countries

The first-order effects of relaxed bank entry restrictions have been favorable, both within the U.S. and across countries. Internationally, the benefits of foreign entry seem to depend on the level of development, but at least for developing nations entrants are more efficient than incumbent banks and the stiffer competition seems to improve overall bank efficiency. In contrast to these first-order effects, the stability implications of increased entry are less obvious. This paper investigates whether greater integration resulting from foreign bank entry has been associated with more or less business cycle volatility. We approach the topic with mix of theory and evidence from both the U.S. states and countries. While theoretical effects are mixed, the empirical effect of relaxation of restrictions of cross-state banking has been to stabilize state-level fluctuations in the U.S. Applying a related set of tests to a panel of about 100 countries, however, we find no evidence that expansion of foreign banking has reduced business fluctuations. If anything, the evidence points tentatively in the other direction.

Observationally derived transport diagnostics for the lowermost stratosphere and their application to the GMI chemistry and transport model

International audienceTransport from the surface to the lowermost stratosphere (LMS) can occur on timescales of a few months or less, making it possible for short-lived tropospheric pollutants to influence stratospheric composition and chemistry. Models used to study this influence must demonstrate the credibility of their chemistry and transport in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UT/LS). Data sets from satellite and aircraft instruments measuring CO, O3, N2O, and CO2 in the UT/LS are used to create a suite of diagnostics for the seasonally-varying transport into and within the lowermost stratosphere, and of the coupling between the troposphere and stratosphere in the extratropics. The diagnostics are used to evaluate a version of the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) Chemistry and Transport Model (CTM) that uses a combined tropospheric and stratospheric chemical mechanism and meteorological fields from the GEOS-4 general circulation model. The diagnostics derived from N2O and O3 show that the model lowermost stratosphere has realistic input from the overlying high latitude stratosphere in all seasons. Diagnostics for the LMS show two distinct layers. The upper layer begins ~30 K potential temperature above the tropopause and has a strong annual cycle in its composition. The lower layer is a mixed region ~30 K thick near the tropopause that shows no clear seasonal variation in the degree of tropospheric coupling. Diagnostics applied to the GMI CTM show credible seasonally-varying transport in the LMS and a tropopause layer that is realistically coupled to the UT in all seasons. The vertical resolution of the GMI CTM in the UT/LS, ~1 km, is sufficient to realistically represent the extratropical tropopause layer. This study demonstrates that the GMI CTM has the transport credibility required to study the impact of tropospheric emissions on the stratosphere

Sensitivity of stratospheric inorganic chlorine to differences in transport

International audienceCorrectly modeling stratospheric inorganic chlorine (Cly) is crucial for modeling the past and future evolution of stratospheric ozone. However, comparisons of the chemistry climate models used in the latest international assessment of stratospheric ozone depletion have shown large differences in the modeled Cly, with these differences explaining many of the differences in the simulated evolution of ozone over the next century. Here in, we examine the role of transport in determining the simulated Cly using three simulations from the same off-line chemical transport model that have the same lower tropospheric boundary conditions and the same chemical solver, but differing resolution and/or meteorological fields. These simulations show that transport plays a key role in determining the Cly distribution, and that Cly depends on both the time scales and pathways of transport. The time air spends in the stratosphere (e.g., the mean age) is an important transport factor determining stratospheric Cly, but the relationship between mean age and Cly is not simple. Lower stratospheric Cly depends on the fraction of air that has been in the upper stratosphere, and transport differences between models having the same mean age can result in differences in the fraction of organic chlorine converted into Cly. Differences in transport pathways result in differences in vertical profiles of CFCs, and comparisons of observed and modeled CFC profiles provide a stringent test of transport pathways in models

Transport and modeling of stratospheric inorganic chlorine

International audienceCorrectly modeling stratospheric inorganic chlorine (Cly) is crucial for modeling the past and future evolution of stratospheric ozone. However, comparisons of the chemistry climate models used in the latest international assessment of stratospheric ozone depletion have shown large differences in the modeled Cly, with these differences explaining differences in the simulated evolution of ozone over the next century. Here in, we examine the role of transport in determining the simulated Cly using three simulations from the same off-line chemical transport model that have the same lower tropospheric boundary conditions and the same chemical solver, but differing resolution and/or meteorological fields. These simulations show that transport plays a key role in determining the Cly distribution, and that Cly depends on both the time scales and pathways of transport. The time air spends in the stratosphere (e.g., the mean age) is an important transport factor determining stratospheric Cly, but the relationship between mean age and Cly is not simple. Lower stratospheric Cly depends on the fraction of air that has been in the upper stratosphere, and transport differences between models having the same mean age can result in differences in the fraction of organic chlorine converted into Cly. Differences in transport pathways result in differences in vertical profiles of CFCs, and comparisons of observed and modeled CFC profiles provides a stringent test of transport pathways in models

The Contributions of Chemistry and Transport to Low Arctic Ozone in March 2011 Derived from Aura MLS Observations

Stratospheric and total columns of Arctic O3 (63-90 N) in late March 2011 averaged 320 and 349 DU, respectively. These values are 74 DU lower than averages for the previous 6 years. We use Aura MLS O3 observations to quantify the roles of chemistry and transport and find there are two major reasons for low O3 in March 2011: heterogeneous chemical loss and a late final warming that delayed the resupply of O3 until April. Daily vortex-averaged partial columns in the lowermost stratosphere (p greater than 133 hPa) and middle stratosphere (p less than 29 hPa) are unaffected by local heterogeneous chemistry and show a near total lack of transport into the vortex between late January and late March, contributing to the observed low column. The lower stratospheric (LS) column (133-29 hPa) is affected by both heterogeneous chemistry and transport. Low interannual variability of Aura MLS 0 3 columns and temperature inside the Arctic vortex (2004-2011) shows that the transport contribution to vortex O3 in fall and early winter is nearly the same each year. The descent of MLS N2O vortex profiles in 2011 provides an estimate of O3 transported into the LS column during late winter. By quantifying the role of transport we determine that PSC-driven chemical loss causes 80 (plus or minus 10) DU of vortex-averaged O3 loss by late March 2011. Without heterogeneous chemical loss, March 2011 vortex O3 would have been ~40 DU lower than normal due to the late final warming and resupply of O3 which did not occur until April

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Sensitivity of stratospheric inorganic chlorine to differences i

Choosing Meteorological Input for the Global Modeling Initiative Assessment of High Speed Aircraft

The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) science team is developing a three dimensional chemistry and transport model (CTM) to be used in assessment of the atmospheric effects of aviation. Requirements are that this model be documented, be validated against observations, use a realistic atmospheric circulation, and contain numerical transport and photochemical modules representing atmospheric processes. The model must also retain computational efficiency to be tractable to use for multiple scenarios and sensitivity studies. To meet these requirements, a facility model concept was developed in which the different components of the CTM are evaluated separately. The first use of the GMI model will be to evaluate the impact of the exhaust of supersonic aircraft on the stratosphere. The assessment calculations will depend strongly on the wind and temperature fields used by the CTM. Three meteorological data sets for the stratosphere are available to GMI: the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (CCM2), the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS), and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model (GISS). Objective criteria were established by the GMI team to identify the data set which provides the best representation of the stratosphere. Simulations of gases with simple chemical control were chosen to test various aspects of model transport. The three meteorological data sets were evaluated and graded based on their ability to simulate these aspects of stratospheric measurements. This paper describes the criteria used in grading the meteorological fields. The meteorological data set which has the highest score and therefore was selected for GMI is CCM2. This type of objective model evaluation establishes a physical basis for interpretation of differences between models and observations. Further, the method provides a quantitative basis for defining model errors, for discriminating between different models, and for ready re-evaluation of improved models. These in turn will lead to a higher level of confidence in assessment calculations

Multi-model simulations of the impact of international shipping on Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate in 2000 and 2030

The global impact of shipping on atmospheric chemistry and radiative forcing, as well as the associated uncertainties, have been quantified using an ensemble of ten state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry models and a predefined set of emission data. The analysis is performed for present-day conditions ( year 2000) and for two future ship emission scenarios. In one scenario ship emissions stabilize at 2000 levels; in the other ship emissions increase with a constant annual growth rate of 2.2% up to 2030 ( termed the "Constant Growth Scenario" (CGS)). Most other anthropogenic emissions follow the IPCC ( Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) SRES ( Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A2 scenario, while biomass burning and natural emissions remain at year 2000 levels. An intercomparison of the model results with observations over the Northern Hemisphere (25 degrees - 60 degrees N) oceanic regions in the lower troposphere showed that the models are capable to reproduce ozone (O-3) and nitrogen oxides (NOx= NO+ NO2) reasonably well, whereas sulphur dioxide (SO2) in the marine boundary layer is significantly underestimated. The most pronounced changes in annual mean tropospheric NO2 and sulphate columns are simulated over the Baltic and North Seas. Other significant changes occur over the North Atlantic, the Gulf of Mexico and along the main shipping lane from Europe to Asia, across the Red and Arabian Seas. Maximum contributions from shipping to annual mean near-surface O-3 are found over the North Atlantic ( 5 - 6 ppbv in 2000; up to 8 ppbv in 2030). Ship contributions to tropospheric O3 columns over the North Atlantic and Indian Oceans reach 1 DU in 2000 and up to 1.8 DU in 2030. Tropospheric O-3 forcings due to shipping are 9.8 +/- 2.0 mW/m(2) in 2000 and 13.6 +/- 2.3 mW/m(2) in 2030. Whilst increasing O-3, ship NOx simultaneously enhances hydroxyl radicals over the remote ocean, reducing the global methane lifetime by 0.13 yr in 2000, and by up to 0.17 yr in 2030, introducing a negative radiative forcing. The models show future increases in NOx and O-3 burden which scale almost linearly with increases in NOx emission totals. Increasing emissions from shipping would significantly counteract the benefits derived from reducing SO2 emissions from all other anthropogenic sources under the A2 scenario over the continents, for example in Europe. Globally, shipping contributes 3% to increases in O-3 burden between 2000 and 2030, and 4.5% to increases in sulphate under A2/CGS. However, if future ground based emissions follow a more stringent scenario, the relative importance of ship emissions will increase. Inter-model differences in the simulated O-3 contributions from ships are significantly smaller than estimated uncertainties stemming from the ship emission inventory, mainly the ship emission totals, the distribution of the emissions over the globe, and the neglect of ship plume dispersion

Interstellar OH+, H2O+ and H3O+ along the sight-line to G10.6-0.4

We report the detection of absorption lines by the reactive ions OH+, H2O+ and H3O+ along the line of sight to the submillimeter continuum source G10.6$-$0.4 (W31C). We used the Herschel HIFI instrument in dual beam switch mode to observe the ground state rotational transitions of OH+ at 971 GHz, H2O+ at 1115 and 607 GHz, and H3O+ at 984 GHz. The resultant spectra show deep absorption over a broad velocity range that originates in the interstellar matter along the line of sight to G10.6$-$0.4 as well as in the molecular gas directly associated with that source. The OH+ spectrum reaches saturation over most velocities corresponding to the foreground gas, while the opacity of the H2O+ lines remains lower than 1 in the same velocity range, and the H3O+ line shows only weak absorption. For LSR velocities between 7 and 50 kms$^{-1}$ we estimate total column densities of $N$(OH+) $> 2.5 \times 10^{14}$ cm$^{-2}$, $N$(H2O+) $\sim 6 \times 10^{13}$ cm$^{-2}$ and $N$(H3O+) $\sim 4.0 \times 10^{13}$ cm$^{-2}$. These detections confirm the role of O$^+$ and OH$^+$ in initiating the oxygen chemistry in diffuse molecular gas and strengthen our understanding of the gas phase production of water. The high ratio of the OH+ by the H2O+ column density implies that these species predominantly trace low-density gas with a small fraction of hydrogen in molecular form