BICCO-Net II. Final report to the Biological Impacts of Climate Change Observation Network (BICCO-Net) Steering Group

• BICCO-Net Phase II presents the most comprehensive single assessment of climate change impacts on UK biodiversity to date. • The results provide a valuable resource for the CCRA 2018, future LWEC report cards, the National Adaptation Programme and other policy-relevant initiatives linked to climate change impacts on biodiversity

An empirical Bayes approach to network recovery using external knowledge.

Reconstruction of a high-dimensional network may benefit substantially from the inclusion of prior knowledge on the network topology. In the case of gene interaction networks such knowledge may come for instance from pathway repositories like KEGG, or be inferred from data of a pilot study. The Bayesian framework provides a natural means of including such prior knowledge. Based on a Bayesian Simultaneous Equation Model, we develop an appealing Empirical Bayes (EB) procedure that automatically assesses the agreement of the used prior knowledge with the data at hand. We use variational Bayes method for posterior densities approximation and compare its accuracy with that of Gibbs sampling strategy. Our method is computationally fast, and can outperform known competitors. In a simulation study, we show that accurate prior data can greatly improve the reconstruction of the network, but need not harm the reconstruction if wrong. We demonstrate the benefits of the method in an analysis of gene expression data from GEO. In particular, the edges of the recovered network have superior reproducibility (compared to that of competitors) over resampled versions of the data.The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Research Council under ERC Grant Agreement 320637

Baseline characteristics in the Remote Diet Intervention to REduce long-COVID Symptoms Trial (ReDIRECT)

Background: The persistence of symptoms for ≥12 weeks after a COVID-19 infection is known as Long COVID (LC), a condition with unclear pathophysiology and no proven treatments to date. Living with obesity is a risk factor for LC and has symptoms which may overlap with and aggravate LC. Methods: ReDIRECT is a remotely delivered trial assessing whether weight management can reduce LC symptoms. We recruited people with LC and BMI >27kg/m2. The intervention was delivered remotely by dietitians, with online data collection (medical and dietary history, COVID-19 infection and vaccination, body composition, LC history/symptoms, blood pressure, quality of life, sociodemographic data). Participants self-selected the dominant LC symptoms they most wanted to improve from the intervention. Results: Participants (n=234) in England (64%) and Scotland (30%) were mainly women (85%) of white ethnicity (90%), with 13% living in the 20% most deprived areas, a mean age of 46 (SD10) years, and median BMI of 35kg/m2 (IQR 32-40). Before starting the study, 30% reported more than one COVID-19 infection (82% confirmed with one or more positive tests). LC Diagnosis was mainly by GPs (71%), other healthcare professionals (9%), or self-diagnosed (21%). The median total number of symptoms was 6 (IQR 4–8). Self-selected dominant LC symptoms included fatigue (54%), breathlessness (16%), pain (12%), anxiety/depression (1%) and "other" (17%). At baseline, 82% were taking medication, 57% reported 1+ other medical conditions. Quality of life was poor; 20% were on long-term sick leave or reduced working hours. Most (92%) reported having gained weight since contracting COVID-19 (median weight change +11.5 kg, range -11.5 to +45.3 kg). Conclusions: Symptoms linked to LC and overweight are diverse and complex. Remote trial delivery enabled rapid recruitment across the UK yet certain groups (e.g. men and those from ethnic minority groups) were under-represented. Trial registration: ISRCTN registry (ISRCTN12595520, 25/11/2021)

Doxycycline versus prednisolone as an initial treatment strategy for bullous pemphigoid: a pragmatic non-inferiority randomised controlled trial

Background: Bullous pemphigoid (BP) is a blistering skin disorder with increased mortality. We tested whether a strategy of starting treatment with doxycycline conveys acceptable short-term blister control whilst conferring long-term safety advantages over starting treatment with oral corticosteroids. Methods: Pragmatic multi-centre parallel-group randomised controlled trial of adults with BP (≥3 blisters ≥2 sites and linear basement membrane IgG/C3) plus economic evaluation. Participants were randomised to doxycycline (200 mg/day) or prednisolone (0·5 mg/kg/day). Localised adjuvant potent topical corticosteroids (<30 g/week) was permitted weeks 1-3. The non-inferiority primary effectiveness outcome was the proportion of participants with ≤3 blisters at 6 weeks. We assumed that doxycycline would be 25% less effective than corticosteroids with a 37% acceptable margin of noninferiority. The primary safety outcome was the proportion with severe, life-threatening or fatal treatment-related adverse events by 52 weeks. Analysis used a regression model adjusting for baseline disease severity, age and Karnofsky score, with missing data imputed. Results: 132 patients were randomised to doxycycline and 121 to prednisolone from 54 UK and 7 German dermatology centres. Mean age was 77·7 years and 68.4% had moderate to severe baseline disease. For those starting doxycycline, 83/112 (74·1%) had ≤3 blisters at 6 weeks compared with 92/101 (91·1%) for prednisolone, a difference of 18·6% favouring prednisolone (upper limit of 90% CI, 26·1%, within the predefined 37% margin). Related severe, life-threatening and fatal events at 52 weeks were 18·5% for those starting doxycycline and 36·6% for prednisolone (mITT analysis), an adjusted difference of 19·0% (95% CI, 7·9%, 30·1%, p=0·001). Conclusions: A strategy of starting BP patients on doxycycline is non-inferior to standard treatment with oral prednisolone for short-term blister control and significantly safer long-term

Haphazard Poems : Some Sense, Some Nonsense.

Mode of access: Internet.Labadie Pamphlet Collection