Long-run inflation expectations in the ECB survey of professional forecasters: what do the survey responses tell us?

Research background: At the background, there are issues related to policy credibility and policy targets. For these issues, long-term forecasts can provide important information. Of course, long-term forecasts are needed also e.g. for evaluation of real returns.Purpose of the article: This paper tries to find out how informative the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters data on long-term inflation prospects are from the point of view of the overall quality of the survey and on the other hand from the point of view of monetary policy credibility. Methods: The analysis makes use of individual forecaster level quarterly panel data for the period 1999Q1-2018Q4. Conventional panel econometrics tools are used to find out whether forecasts are sensitive to changes in actual inflation and other relevant variables.Findings & Value added: We find some weaknesses considering the size of the survey, the selection of the sample (more precisely the participation to the survey) and the inertial responses of forecasters which suggest that the survey values are not actively updated. Moreover, we find that towards the end of the sample period, the survey values are related to actual inflation and to short-term expectations, which is not consistent with the credibility of the official inflation target

Literature syntheses to inform marine ecosystem management: lessons learned from stakeholder participation

Systematic literature syntheses are a key element in the scientific realm, considering the steadily growing amount of available knowledge. Involving stakeholders in the research process brings a wide range of advantages, like broadening the perspectives on the problem in question, increasing the relevance of results for policy- and decision-making, the public and other end-users and thus enhancing the impact and acceptance of research. While participatory approaches are on the rise, reflections on stakeholder involvement in systematic syntheses on environmental management are scarce. We reflect on the process of involving stakeholders with expertise also from outside academia during three literature syntheses with different foci of marine and coastal ecosystem services in the Baltic Sea. Our analysis is based on notes, e-mails, minutes and recordings of internal project meetings, interviews and workshops involving both researchers and stakeholders. We discuss the challenges the participatory approach introduced and develop lessons learned to support the planning of stakeholder engagement for future literature syntheses. We conclude that stakeholder identification, communication, collaboration and knowledge translation are highly time- and resource-intensive processes. Furthermore, appropriate training and experience are necessary for the design, execution and evaluation of participatory methods tailored to each project stage. Therefore, we underline the importance of adequate consideration of the required resources during project planning and implementation. To encourage and support valuable stakeholder engagement and knowledge exchange between the research community and actors of policy and practice, more appreciation of such efforts by funding institutions and within the wider scientific community is needed

Tree height strongly affects estimates of water-use efficiency responses to climate and CO2 using isotopes

Various studies report substantial increases in intrinsic water-use efficiency (Wi), estimated using carbon isotopes in tree rings, suggesting trees are gaining increasingly more carbon per unit water lost due to increases in atmospheric CO2. Usually, reconstructions do not, however, correct for the effect of intrinsic developmental changes in Wi as trees grow larger. Here we show, by comparingWi across varying tree sizes at one CO2 level, that ignoring such developmental effects can severely affect inferences of trees' Wi. Wi doubled or even tripled over a trees' lifespan in three broadleaf species due to changes in tree height and light availability alone, and there are also weak trends for Pine trees. Developmental trends in broadleaf species are as large as the trends previously assigned to CO2 and climate. Credible future tree ring isotope studies require explicit accounting for species-specific developmental effects before CO2 and climate effects are inferred.Peer reviewe

Spectroscopy of 34,35Si^{34,35}Si by β\beta decay: sd-fp shell gap and single-particle states

The $^{34,35}Al\beta$ decays were studied at the CERN on-line mass separator ISOLDE by $\beta-\gamma, \beta-\gamma-\gamma$ and $\beta-n-\gamma$ measurements, in order to corroborate thelow-level description of $^{34}Si$ and to obtain the first information on the level structure of the N=21 isotope $^{35}Si$. Earlier observed $\gamma$ lines in $^{34} Al$ decay were confirmed and new gamma transitions following both beta decay and $\beta$-delayed neutron emission were established. The first level scheme in $^{35}Si$, including three excited states at 910, 974 and 2168 keV, is consistent with $J^{\pi} =3/2^{-}$ and $3/2^{+}$ for the first two states respectively. Beta-decay half-life of $T_{1/2} = 38.6 (4)$ ms and beta-delayed neutron branching $P_{n}$ value $(P_{n} =41(13)$ were measured unambiguously. The significance of the single-particle energy determination at N=21, Z=14, for assessing the effective interaction in sd-fp shell-model calculations, is discussed and illustrated by predictions for different n-rich isotopes

Accurate mass measurements on neutron-deficient krypton isotopes

soumis à Nuclear Physics AThe masses of $^{72-78,80,82,86}$Kr were measured directly with the ISOLTRAP Penning trap mass spectrometer at ISOLDE/CERN. For all these nuclides, the measurements yielded mass uncertainties below 10 keV. The ISOLTRAP mass values for $^{72-75}$Kr outweighed previous results obtained by means of other techniques, and thus completely determine the new values in the Atomic-Mass Evaluation. Besides the interest of these masses for nuclear astrophysics, nuclear structure studies, and Standard Model tests, these results constitute a valuable and accurate input to improve mass models. In this paper, we present the mass measurements and discuss the mass evaluation for these Kr isotopes

Level structure of 99Nb

The β decay of 97Sr to 97Y has been investigated using ion-guide on-line mass separation and a 10 Ge-detector array to record γ−γ coincidences to a detection limit well below that of former studies. Similarities are found in the β-decay patterns of 99Zr and of its isotone 97Sr and also in the γ-ray decay rates and branchings of the corresponding levels in their respective daughters 99Nb and 97Y. This indicates a persisting influence of the d5/2 neutron shell closure for 99Nb. The level structure of 99Nb and the β-feeding pattern are discussed in the frame of the interacting boson-fermion plus broken pair model and the microscopic quasiparticle phonon model

"Safe" Coulomb Excitation of 30Mg

We report on the first radioactive beam experiment performed at the recently commissioned REX-ISOLDE facility at CERN in conjunction with the highly efficient gamma spectrometer MINIBALL. Using 30Mg ions accelerated to an energy of 2.25 MeV/u together with a thin nat-Ni target, Coulomb excitation of the first excited 2+ states of the projectile and target nuclei well below the Coulomb barrier was observed. From the measured relative de-excitation gamma ray yields the B(E2; 0+ -> 2+) value of 30Mg was determined to be 241(31) e2fm4. Our result is lower than values obtained at projectile fragmentation facilities using the intermediate-energy Coulomb excitation method, and confirms the theoretical conjecture that the neutron-rich magnesium isotope 30Mg lies still outside the ``island of inversion''

Implications of Extreme Life Span in Clonal Organisms: Millenary Clones in Meadows of the Threatened Seagrass Posidonia oceanica

The maximum size and age that clonal organisms can reach remains poorly known, although we do know that the largest natural clones can extend over hundreds or thousands of metres and potentially live for centuries. We made a review of findings to date, which reveal that the maximum clone age and size estimates reported in the literature are typically limited by the scale of sampling, and may grossly underestimate the maximum age and size of clonal organisms. A case study presented here shows the occurrence of clones of slow-growing marine angiosperm Posidonia oceanica at spatial scales ranging from metres to hundreds of kilometres, using microsatellites on 1544 sampling units from a total of 40 locations across the Mediterranean Sea. This analysis revealed the presence, with a prevalence of 3.5 to 8.9%, of very large clones spreading over one to several (up to 15) kilometres at the different locations. Using estimates from field studies and models of the clonal growth of P. oceanica, we estimated these large clones to be hundreds to thousands of years old, suggesting the evolution of general purpose genotypes with large phenotypic plasticity in this species. These results, obtained combining genetics, demography and model-based calculations, question present knowledge and understanding of the spreading capacity and life span of plant clones. These findings call for further research on these life history traits associated with clonality, considering their possible ecological and evolutionary implications