Five minutes with Andrew Miller MP: “It’s important that people handle information in an intelligent way, and social science has a huge role in this”

In 2011 the Science and Technology Select Committee examined the role of science when emergencies such as the H1N1 influenza pandemic and the volcanic ash disruption occur. Andrew Miller, chair of the Government’s Science and Technology Select Committee, speaks about the role he sees for social scientists in such emergencies

A new approach to generating research-quality phenology data: The USA National Phenology Monitoring System

The USA National Phenology Network (www.usanpn.org) has recently initiated a national effort to encourage people at different levels of expertise—from backyard naturalists to professional scientists—to observe phenology and contribute to a national database that will be used to greatly improve our understanding of spatio-temporal variation in phenology and associated phenological responses to climate change. Many phenological observation protocols identify specific single dates at which individual phenological events are observed, but the scientific usefulness of long-term phenological observations can be improved with a more carefully structured protocol. At the USA-NPN we have developed a new approach that directs observers to record each day that they observe an individual plant, and to assess and report the state of specific life stages (or phenophases) as occurring or not occurring on that plant for each observation date. Observations of animal phenophases are similarly recorded, although for a species as a whole rather than for a specific individual. Evaluation is phrased in terms of simple, easy-to-understand, questions (e.g. “Do you see open flowers?”) which makes it appropriate for a broad audience. From this method, a rich dataset of phenological metrics can be extracted, including the duration of a phenophase (e.g. open flowers), the beginning and end points of a phenophase (e.g. traditional phenological events such as first flower and end flowering), multiple distinct occurrences of phenophases within a single growing season (e.g multiple flowering events, common in drought-prone regions), as well as quantification of sampling frequency and observational uncertainties. The system also includes a mechanism for translation of phenophase start and end points into standard traditional phenological events to facilitate comparison of contemporary data collected with this new “phenophase status” monitoring approach to historical datasets collected with the “phenological event” monitoring approach. These features greatly enhance the utility of the resulting data for statistical analyses addressing questions such as how phenological events vary in time and space, and in response to global change

UK Alcohol Treatment trial: client-treatment matching effects

Aim To test a priori hypotheses concerning client–treatment matching in the treatment of alcohol problems and to evaluate the more general hypothesis that client–treatment matching adds to the overall effectiveness of treatment. Design Pragmatic, multi-centre, randomized controlled trial (the UK Alcohol Treatment Trial: UKATT) with open follow-up at 3 months after entry and blind follow-up at 12 months. Setting Five treatment centres, comprising seven treatment sites, including National Health Service (NHS), social services and joint NHS/non-statutory facilities. Treatments Motivational enhancement therapy and social behaviour and network therapy. Measurements Matching hypotheses were tested by examining interactions between client attributes and treatment types at both 3 and 12 months follow-up using the outcome variables of percentage days abstinent, drinks per drinking day and scores on the Alcohol Problems Questionnaire and Leeds Dependence Questionnaire. Findings None of five matching hypotheses was confirmed at either follow-up point on any outcome variable. Conclusion The findings strongly support the conclusion reached in Project MATCH in the United States that client–treatment matching, at least of the kind examined, is unlikely to result in substantial improvements to the effectiveness of treatment for alcohol problems. Possible reasons for this failure to support the general matching hypothesis are discussed, as are the implications of UKATT findings for the provision of treatment for alcohol problems in the United Kingdom

The drivers of Chinese CO2 emissions from 1980 to 2030

China's energy consumption doubled within the first 25 years of economic reforms initiated at the end of the 1970s, and doubled again in the past 5 years. It has resulted of a threefold CO2 emissions increase since early of 1980s. China's heavy reliance on coal will make it the largest emitter of CO2 in the world. By combining structural decomposition and input–output analysis we seek to assess the driving forces of China's CO2 emissions from 1980 to 2030. In our reference scenario, production-related CO2 emissions will increase another three times by 2030. Household consumption, capital investment and growth in exports will largely drive the increase in CO2 emissions. Efficiency gains will be partially offset the projected increases in consumption, but our scenarios show that this will not be sufficient if China's consumption patterns converge to current US levels. Relying on efficiency improvements alone will not stabilize China's future emissions. Our scenarios show that even extremely optimistic assumptions of widespread installation of carbon dioxide capture and storage will only slow the increase in CO2 emissions

Changing the Ties That Bind? The Emerging Roles and Identities of General Practitioners and Managers in the New Clinical Commissioning Groups in the English NHS

The English National Health Service (NHS) is undergoing significant reorganization following the 2012 Health and Social Care Act. Key to these changes is the shift of responsibility for commissioning services from Primary Care Trusts (PCTs) to general practitioners (GPs) working together in Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs). This article is based on an empirical study that examined the development of emerging CCGs in eight case studies across England between September 2011 and June 2012. The findings are based on interviews with GPs and managers, observations of meetings, and reading of related documents. Scott’s notion that institutions are constituted by three pillars—the regulative, normative, and cognitive–cultural—is explored here. This approach helps to understand the changing roles and identities of doctors and managers implicated by the present reforms. This article notes the far reaching changes in the regulative pillar and questions how these changes will affect the normative and cultural–cognitive pillars

From dictatorship to a reluctant democracy: Stroke therapists talking about self-management

This article is made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.Purpose: Self-management is being increasingly promoted within chronic conditions including stroke. Concerns have been raised regarding professional ownership of some programmes, yet little is known of the professional’s experience. This paper aims to present the views of trained therapists about the utility of a specific self-management approach in stroke rehabilitation. Method: Eleven stroke therapists trained in the self-management approach participated in semi-structured interviews. These were audio recorded, transcribed verbatim and analysed thematically. Results: Two overriding themes emerged. The first was the sense that in normal practice therapists act as ‘‘benign dictators’’, committed to help their patients, but most comfortable when they, the professional, are in control. Following the adoption of the self-management approach therapists challenged themselves to empower stroke survivors to take control of their own recovery. However, therapists had to confront many internal and external challenges in this transition of power resulting in the promotion of a somewhat ‘‘reluctant democracy’’. Conclusions: This study illustrates that stroke therapists desire a more participatory approach to rehabilitation. However, obstacles challenged the successful delivery of this goal. If self-management is an appropriate model to develop in post stroke pathways, then serious consideration must be given to how and if these obstacles can be overcome

Flexible Session Management in a Distributed Environment

Many secure communication libraries used by distributed systems, such as SSL, TLS, and Kerberos, fail to make a clear distinction between the authentication, session, and communication layers. In this paper we introduce CEDAR, the secure communication library used by the Condor High Throughput Computing software, and present the advantages to a distributed computing system resulting from CEDAR's separation of these layers. Regardless of the authentication method used, CEDAR establishes a secure session key, which has the flexibility to be used for multiple capabilities. We demonstrate how a layered approach to security sessions can avoid round-trips and latency inherent in network authentication. The creation of a distinct session management layer allows for optimizations to improve scalability by way of delegating sessions to other components in the system. This session delegation creates a chain of trust that reduces the overhead of establishing secure connections and enables centralized enforcement of system-wide security policies. Additionally, secure channels based upon UDP datagrams are often overlooked by existing libraries; we show how CEDAR's structure accommodates this as well. As an example of the utility of this work, we show how the use of delegated security sessions and other techniques inherent in CEDAR's architecture enables US CMS to meet their scalability requirements in deploying Condor over large-scale, wide-area grid systems

Is alcohol dependence best viewed as a chronic relapsing disorder?

This 'For Debate' paper starts by recognizing the growing trend towards considering alcohol dependence as a chronic relapsing disorder. We argue that the adoption of this model results from focusing on those in treatment for alcohol dependence rather than considering the larger number of people in the general population who meet criteria for alcohol dependence at some point in their lives. The majority of the general population who ever experience alcohol dependence do not behave as though they have a chronic relapsing disorder: they do not seek treatment, resolve their dependence themselves and do not relapse repeatedly. We suggest that caution is therefore needed in using the chronic relapsing disorder label. Our primary concerns are that this formulation privileges biological aspects of dependence to the detriment of psychological and social contributions, it inhibits much-needed developments in understanding alcohol dependence and leads to inefficient distributions of public health and clinical care resources for alcohol dependence. We invite debate on this issue

Improving the psychological evaluation of exercise referral: psychometric properties of the Exercise Referral Quality of Life Scale

There is a growing need to assess the psychological outcomes of exercise referral and the National Institute of Health and Care Excellence has called for the routine assessment of life-quality. However, a quality of life scale specific to the requirements of exercise referral is currently unavailable. Therefore, the aim of this study was to produce a quality of life measure for this purpose. The Exercise Referral Quality of Life Scale is a 22-item measure comprising three domains: mental and physical health, injury pain and illness and physical activity facilitators. Exploratory factor analysis determined the initial factor structure and was subsequently confirmed by confirmatory factor analysis. Additional scale properties were also assessed. The scale contributes to the global need for improved consistent psychological outcome assessment of exercise referral