Kopplung ökologischer und sozio-ökonomischer Systemanalyse: ein methodischer Ansatz basierend auf ökologischem Risiko

The presented study applies the DPSIR approach to the analysis of two environmental issues in the North Sea. The first case-study is eutrophication of coastal waters associated with anthropogenic nutrient emissions in the North Sea catchment area. The second (emerging) issue is offshore wind power generation, driven by the need of mitigating climate change (by cutting greenhouse gases emissions) and reduce energy dependence on third countries. The presented integrated analysis focuses on methodological aspects related to the application of the DPSIR scoping framework and evaluation of its suitability as decision support system (DSS) in coastal management. Moreover, in the context of decision-making under uncertainty, the issue of assessing potential massive changes in ecosystem functioning is approached through the development of the ecological risk concept. The results are discussed under two perspectives: (1) in terms of management possibilities for the single case-studies as well as (2) for evaluating the deployed methodology.In der hier vorgelegten Arbeit wird der DPSIR Ansatz zur Analyse zweier Umweltfragen in der Nordsee angewandt. In der ersten Fallstudie wird die Eutrophierung resultierend aus anthropogenen Nährstoffemissionen in den Einzugsgebieten der Nordsee betrachtet. Die zweite Fallstudie befasst sich mit der aktuell gewordenen Offshore-Windenergieerzeugung, deren Bedeutung sowohl vor dem Hintergrund der durch den Klimawandel gewünschten Reduktion von Treibhausgasemissionen (GHGs) als auch in der Reduzierung der Abhängikeit von Drittländern in Fragen der Energieversorgung zu sehen ist. Die Analyse konzentriert sich auf methodologische Aspekte hinsichtlich der Anwendbarkeit des DPSIR Ansatz und Prüfung seiner Tauglichkeit als Entscheidungshilfe (DSS) im Küstenmanagement. Darüberhinaus wird im Zusammenhang mit Entscheidungsfindungsprozessen unter Unsicherheiten die Frage möglicher, weitreichender Änderungen der Ökosystemfunktionen unter Entwicklung des Konzeptes des ökologischen Risikos betrachtet. Die Ergebnisse werden unter zwei Gesichtspunkten betrachtet: (1) bezüglich der Managementmöglichkeiten in Einzelfallstudien und (2) bezüglich der Bewertung der angewandten Methodologie

Assessment of coastal management options by means of multilayered ecosystem models

This paper presents a multilayered ecosystem modelling approach that combines the simulation of the biogeochemistry of a coastal ecosystem with the simulation of the main forcing functions, such as catchment loading and aquaculture activities. This approach was developed as a tool for sustainable management of coastal ecosystems. A key feature is to simulate management scenarios that account for changes in multiple uses and enable assessment of cumulative impacts of coastal activities. The model was applied to a coastal zone in China with large aquaculture production and multiple catchment uses, and where management efforts to improve water quality are under way. Development scenarios designed in conjunction with local managers and aquaculture producers include the reduction of fish cages and treatment of wastewater. Despite the reduction in nutrient loading simulated in three different scenarios, inorganic nutrient concentrations in the bay were predicted to exceed the thresholds for poor quality defined by Chinese seawater quality legislation. For all scenarios there is still a Moderate High to High nutrient loading from the catchment, so further reductions might be enacted, together with additional decreases in fish cage culture. The model predicts that overall, shellfish production decreases by 10%–28% using any of these development scenarios, principally because shellfish growth is being sustained by the substances to be reduced for improvement of water quality. The model outcomes indicate that this may be counteracted by zoning of shellfish aquaculture at the ecosystem level in order to optimize trade-offs between productivity and environmental effects. The present case study exemplifies the value of multilayered ecosystem modelling as a tool for Integrated Coastal Zone Management and for the adoption of ecosystem approaches for marine resource management. This modelling approach can be applied worldwide, and may be particularly useful for the application of coastal management regulation, for instance in the implementation of the European Marine Strategy Framework Directive

The ecological sustainability trigon A proposed conceptual framework for creating and testing management scenarios

The ability to achieve ecological sustainability and the sustainable development of marine and estuarine ecosystems constitutes a complex major challenge and depends on many driving forces, often conflicting with each other. In particular, there are three major drivers: (a) the search for human well-being, health and safety, (b) the maintenance of ecological sustainability and environmental equilibrium, and (c) the tolerance of an increasing human population pressure and demand for wealth creation. We propose here the use of a conceptual guidance tool – the ecological sustainability trigon (EST) – as a means of building and testing environmental management scenarios. Although it requires further testing, the EST allows us to (a) address those three major drivers using human society view as a common currency, and (b) describe our behaviour, energetics (economy) and dynamics through ecological theory. Moreover, the EST appears promising for gap analysis and the means to address new research questions

Catchment-coastal zone interaction based upon scenario and model analysis: Elbe and the German Bight case study

This paper presents a holistic strategy on the interaction of activities in the Elbe river basin and their effects on eutrophication in the coastal waters of the German Bight. This catchment-coastal zone interaction is the main target of the EUROCAT (EUROpean CATchments, catchment changes and their impact on the coast) research project, with the Elbe being one of eight case studies. The definition of socio-economic scenarios is linked with the application of models to evaluate measures in the catchment by estimation of nutrient emissions with MONERIS (MOdelling Nutrient Emissions in RIver Systems), and their effects on coastal waters with the ecosystem model ERSEM (European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model). The cost effectiveness of reduction measures will then be evaluated by application of the CENER model (Cost-Effective Nutrient Emission Reduction) and a multi-criteria analysis. Finally, the interpretation of ecological integrity is used as a measure to describe ecological impacts in an aggregated form. © Springer-Verlag 2004