Towards Resilience to Nuclear Accidents:Financing Nuclear Liabilities via Catastrophe Risk Bonds

In light of the 2011 Fukushima disaster, recent discussion has focused on finding the best nuclear storage options, maximizing the oversight power of global institutions, and strengthening safety measures. In addition to these, the development of dependable liability coverage that can be tapped in an emergency is also needed and should be considered thoughtfully. To succeed, financing is essential using special-purpose instruments from the global bond market, which is as big as US$175 trillion. Thus, in this paper, for the first time, a two-coverage-type trigger nuclear catastrophe (N-CAT) risk bond for potentially supplementing the covering of U.S. commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs) beyond the coverage per the Price Anderson Act as amended, and potentially other plants are proposed and designed worldwide. The N-CAT peril is categorized by three risk layers: incident, accident, and major accident. The pricing formula is derived by using a semi-Markovian dependence structure in continuous time. A numerical application illustrates the main findings of the paper.</jats:p

Evaluating airborne and ground based gamma spectrometry methods for detecting particulate radioactivity in the environment: a case study of Irish Sea beaches

In several places, programmes are in place to locate and recover radioactive particles that have the potential to cause detrimental health effects in any member of the publicwho may encounter them. A model has been developed to evaluate the use of mobile gamma spectrometry systems within such programmes, with particular emphasis on large volume (16 l) NaI(Tl) detectors mounted in low flying helicopters. This model uses a validated Monte Carlo code with assessment of local geochemistry and natural and anthropogenic background radiation concentrations and distributions. The results of the model, applied to the example of particles recovered from beaches in the vicinity of Sellafield, clearly show the ability of rapid airborne surveys conducted at 75 m ground clearance and 120 kph speeds to demonstrate the absence of sources greater than 5 MBq 137Cs within large areas (10–20 km2 h−1), and identify areas requiring further ground based investigation. Lowering ground clearance for airborne surveys to 15 m whilst maintaining speeds covering 1–2 km2 h−1 can detect buried 137Cs sources of 0.5 MBq or greater activity. A survey design to detect 100 kBq 137Cs sources at 10 cm depth has also been defined, requiring surveys at b15 m ground clearance and b2 m s−1 ground speed. The response of airborne systems to the Sellafield particles recovered to date has also been simulated, and the proportion of the existing radiocaesium background in the vicinity of the nuclear site has been established. Finally the rates of area coverage and sensitivities of both airborne and ground based approaches are compared, demonstrating the ability of airborne systems to increase the rate of particle recovery in a cost effective manner. The potential for equipment and methodological developments to improve performance are discussed

Assessing the economics of large Energy Storage Plants with an optimisation methodology

Power plants, such as wind farms, that harvest renewable energy are increasing their share of the energy portfolio in several countries, including the United Kingdom. Their inability to match demand power profiles is stimulating an increasing need for large ESP (Energy Storage Plants), capable of balancing their instability and shifting power produced during low demand to peak periods. This paper presents and applies an innovative methodology to assess the economics of ESP utilising UK electricity price data, resulting in three key findings. Firstly the paper provides a methodology to assess the trade-off “reserve capacity vs. profitability” and the possibility of establishing the “optimum size capacity”. The optimal reserve size capacity maximizing the NPV (Net Present Value) is smaller than the optimum size capacity minimizing the subsidies. This is not an optimal result since it complicates the incentive scheme to align investors and policy makers' interests. Secondly, without subsidies, none of the existing ESP technologies are economically sustainable. However, subsidies are a relatively small percentage of the average price of electricity in UK. Thirdly, the possibility of operating ESP as both as a reserve and do price arbitrage was identified as a mean of decreasing subsidies for the ESP technologies

An Integrated Multicriteria Decision-Making Approach for Evaluating Nuclear Fuel Cycle Systems for Long-term Sustainability on the Basis of an Equilibrium Model: Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution, Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluation, and Multiattribute Utility Theory Combined with Analytic Hierarchy Process

The focus on the issues surrounding spent nuclear fuel and lifetime extension of old nuclear power plants continues to grow nowadays. A transparent decision-making process to identify the best suitable nuclear fuel cycle (NFC) is considered to be the key task in the current situation. Through this study, an attempt is made to develop an equilibrium model for the NFC to calculate the material flows based on 1 TWh of electricity production, and to perform integrated multicriteria decision-making method analyses via the analytic hierarchy process technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution, preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation, and multiattribute utility theory methods. This comparative study is aimed at screening and ranking the three selected NFC options against five aspects: sustainability, environmental friendliness, economics, proliferation resistance, and technical feasibility. The selected fuel cycle options include pressurized water reactor (PWR) once-through cycle, PWR mixed oxide cycle, or pyroprocessing sodium-cooled fast reactor cycle. A sensitivity analysis was performed to prove the robustness of the results and explore the influence of criteria on the obtained ranking. As a result of the comparative analysis, the pyroprocessing sodium-cooled fast reactor cycle is determined to be the most competitive option among the NFC scenarios.ope

Cost overruns – helping to define what they really mean

Civil engineers are often in the firing line for alleged cost overruns, particularly on major publicly funded infrastructure projects. This usually occurs when the final cost of a project is simply compared with the original estimate, even though this was published a long time ago, in different circumstances and for a quite different project to the one carried out. This paper proposes a systematic approach to ensure that cost overruns, should they occur, are more accurately defined in terms of when the initial and end costs are assessed, from which point of view, at which project stage, and including scope changes and financial assumptions. The paper refers to the UK’s £163 billion nuclear decommissioning programme

Moving radiation protection on from the limitations of empirical concentration ratios

Radionuclide activity concentrations in food crops and wildlife are most often predicted using empirical concentration ratios (CRs). The CR approach is simple to apply and some data exist with which to parameterise models. However, the parameter is highly variable leading to considerable uncertainty in predictions. Furthermore, for both crops and wildlife we have no, or few, data for many radionuclides and realistically, we are never going to have specific data for every radionuclide - wildlife/crop combination. In this paper, we present an alternative approach using residual maximum likelihood (REML) fitting of a linear mixed effects model; the model output is an estimate of the rank-order of relative values. This methodology gives a less uncertain approach than the CR approach, as it takes into account the effect of site; it also gives a scientifically based extrapolation approach. We demonstrate the approach using the examples of Cs for plants and Pb for terrestrial wildlife. This is the first published application of the REML approach to terrestrial wildlife (previous applications being limited to the consideration of plants). The model presented gives reasonable predictions for a blind test dataset

Gas generation and wind power: A review of unlikely allies in the United Kingdom and Ireland

No single solution currently exists to achieve the utopian desire of zero fossil fuel electricity generation. Until such time, it is evident that the energy mix will contain a large variation in stochastic and intermittent sources of renewable energy such as wind power. The increasing prominence of wind power in pursuit of legally binding European energy targets enables policy makers and conventional generating companies to plan for the unique challenges such a natural resource presents. This drive for wind has been highly beneficial in terms of security of energy supply and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, it has created an unusual ally in natural gas. This paper outlines the suitability and challenges faced by gas generating units in their utilisation as key assets for renewable energy integration and the transition to a low carbon future. The Single Electricity Market of the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland and the British Electricity Transmission Trading Agreement Market are the backdrop to this analysis. Both of these energy markets have a reliance on gas generation matching the proliferation of wind power. The unlikely and mostly ignored relationship between natural gas generation and wind power due to policy decisions and market forces is the necessity of gas to act as a bridging fuel. This review finds gas generation to be crucially important to the continued growth of renewable energy. Additionally, it is suggested that power market design should adequately reward the flexibility required to securely operate a power system with high penetrations of renewable energy, which in most cases is provided by gas generation