Individual Perceptions of the Criminal Justice System

crime, beliefs, deterrence, perceptions

Nodal prices, capacity valuation and investments in natural gas markets - Overview and Analytical Framework

Especially in the short-term, prices in natural gas markets are not exclusively determined by overall supply and demand, but also by the availability of the transport infrastructure. If transportation capacity is scarce, prices may form in (local) residual markets and can differ regionally. If available, storages provide intertemporal arbitrage possibilities which also impact prices. Temporal and regional price differences, in turn, determine the value of storage and transport capacity if either one is scarce. This paper applies an analytical framework for a simple pipeline grid with a storage over two periods to illustrate the interdependencies between prices, scarce capacity and capacity value. The theoretically optimal transportation and storage tariffs are described analytically. The optimal pipeline investment size is shown to be related to marginal storage investment and a function of the discounted and aggregated cost of congestion over the lifetime's asset.Natural gas; Prices; Transport capacity; Storage; Investment

Individual Perceptions of the Criminal Justice System

This paper empirically examines perceptions of the criminal justice system held by young males using longitudinal survey data from the recent National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 Cohort and the National Youth Survey. While beliefs about the probability of an arrest are positively correlated with local official arrest rates, they are largely idiosyncratic and unresponsive to information about the arrests of other random individuals and local neighborhood conditions. There is little support, therefore, for the `broken windows' theory of Wilson and Kelling (1982). Yet, perceptions do respond to changes in an individual's own criminal and arrest history. Young males who engage in crime but are not arrested revise their perceived probability of arrest downward, while those who are arrested revise their probability upwards. Beliefs respond similarly to changes in a sibling's criminal and arrest history. The perceived probability of arrest is then linked to subsequent criminal behavior. Cross-sectionally, youth with a lower perceived probability of arrest are significantly more likely to engage in crime during subsequent periods. Following an arrest, individuals commit less crime, consistent with deterrence theory and the fact that their perceived probability of arrest increases.

Relationship of Cognitive Style and Theoretical Orientation to Psychology Interns\u27 Preferences for Supervision

This study (N  = 106) investigated the effects of cognitive style and theoretical orientation on psychology interns\u27 judgments about the type of supervision they find most beneficial. Preferences for task-oriented and relationship-oriented supervision have been hypothesized to indicate lower and higher levels of professional development, respectively. This study, however, found that trainees\u27 cognitive styles and the behavioral emphasis of their theoretical orientations were also significantly related to their preferences for these two types of supervisory environments. Individual-difference variables in addition to developmental level may need to figure more prominently in future models of psychotherapist training and supervision

The Changing Role of Family Income and Ability in Determining Educational Achievement

This paper uses data from the 1979 and 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth cohorts (NLSY79 and NLSY97) to estimate changes in the effects of ability and family income on educational attainment for youth in their late teens during the early 1980s and early 2000s. Cognitive ability plays an important role in determining educational outcomes for both NLSY cohorts, while family income plays little role in determining high school completion in either cohort. Most interestingly, we document a dramatic increase in the effects of family income on college attendance (particularly among the least able) from the NLSY79 to the NLSY97. Family income has also become a much more important determinant of college 'quality' and hours/weeks worked during the academic year (the latter among the most able) in the NLSY97. Family income has little effect on college delay in either sample. To interpret our empirical findings on college attendance, we develop an educational choice model that incorporates both borrowing constraints and a 'consumption' value of schooling - two of the most commonly invoked explanations for a positive family income - schooling relationship. Without borrowing constraints, the model cannot explain the rising effects of family income on college attendance in response to the sharply rising costs and returns to college experienced from the early 1980s to early 2000s: the incentives created by a 'consumption' value of schooling imply that income should have become less important over time (or even negatively related to attendance). Instead, the data are more broadly consistent with the hypothesis that more youth are borrowing constrained today than were in the early 1980s.

Civil Unrest in North Africa – Risks for Natural Gas Supply?

The uprising and military confrontation in Libya that began in February 2011 has led to disruptions of gas supplies to Europe. An analysis of how Europe has compensated for these missing gas volumes shows that this situation has not affected security of supply. However, this situation would change if the North African uprising were to spread to Algeria. Since Algeria is a much more important gas supplier to Europe than is Libya, more severe consequences would be likely. Applying a natural gas infrastructure model, we investigate the impact of supplier disruptions from both countries for a summer and winter period. Our analysis shows that disruptions in the low-demand summer months could be compensated for, mainly by LNG imports. An investigation of a similar situation at the beginning of the winter shows that security of supply would be severely compromised and that disruptions to Italian consumers would be unavoidable.Natural gas; security of supply; network modelling; North Africa

The Changing Role of Family Income and Ability in Determining Educational Achievement

This paper uses data from the 1979 and 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth cohorts (NLSY79 and NLSY97) to estimate changes in the effects of ability and family income on educational attainment for youth in their late teens during the early 1980s and early 2000s. Cognitive ability plays an important role in determining educational outcomes for both NLSY cohorts, while family income plays little role in determining high school completion in either cohort. Most interestingly, we document a dramatic increase in the effects of family income on college attendance (particularly among the least able) from the NLSY79 to the NLSY97. Family income has also become a much more important determinant of college `quality' and hours/weeks worked during the academic year (the latter among the most able) in the NLSY97. Family income has little effect on college delay in either sample. To interpret our empirical findings on college attendance, we develop an educational choice model that incorporates both borrowing constraints and a `consumption' value of schooling - two of the most commonly invoked explanations for a positive family income-schooling relationship. Without borrowing constraints, the model cannot explain the rising effects of family income on college attendance in response to the sharply rising costs and returns to college experienced from the early 1980s to early 2000s: the incentives created by a `consumption' value of schooling imply that income should have become less important over time (or even negatively related to attendance). Instead, the data are more broadly consistent with the hypothesis that more youth are borrowing constrained today than were in the early 1980s.

German Foreign Direct Investment and Wages

Over the last decade, German multinationals created about two million jobs abroad with increasing foreign direct investment (FDI). While there are many reasons for firms to go multinational and probably just as many for Germany's high unemployment, this paper aims to investigate the relationship between domestic labour costs and foreign direct investment. We apply a theoretical model for an econometric analysis examining the determinants of FDI using panel data of German firms' foreign capital stocks in 22 countries between 1994 and 2003. Estimating elasticities, we find that while domestic wages do not significantly influence total FDI by German firms, they positively affect the FDI stock in countries where cheap labour is abundant. Thus, although Germany's high labour costs are not the sole driver of foreign direct investment, they may accelerate the outsourcing of German jobs. --Foreign direct investment,wages,trade,German multinational firms

The Changing Role of Family Income and Ability in Determining Educational Achievement

This paper uses data from the 1979 and 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth cohorts(NLSY79 and NLSY97) to estimate changes in the effects of ability and family income on educational attainment for youth in their late teens during the early 1980s and early 2000s. Cognitive ability plays an important role in determining educational outcomes for both NLSY cohorts, while family income plays little role in determining high school completion in either cohort. Most interestingly, we document a dramatic increase in the effects of family income on college attendance (particularly among the least able) from the NLSY79 to the NLSY97. Family income has also become a much more important determinant of college `quality' and hours/weeks worked during the academic year (the latter among the most able) in the NLSY97. Family income has little effect on college delay in either sample. To interpret our empirical findings on college attendance, we develop an educational choice model that incorporates both borrowing constraints and a `consumption' value of schooling – two of the most commonly invoked explanations for a positive family income - schooling relationship. Without borrowing constraints, the model cannot explain the rising effects of family income on college attendance in response to the sharply rising costs and returns to college experienced from the early 1980s to early 2000s: the incentives created by a 'consumption' value of schooling imply that income should have become less important over time (or even negatively related to attendance). Instead, the data are more broadly consistent with the hypothesis that more youth are borrowing constrained today than were in the early 1980s.Ability, Achievement, Borrowing Constraints, College, Credit Constraints, Family Income, High School