Is closing the agricultural yield gap a risky endeavor?

CONTEXT: Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has the climatic and biophysical potential to grow the crops it needs to meet rapidly growing food demand; however, agricultural productivity remains low. While potential maize yields in Zambia are 9 t per hectare (t/ha), the average farmer produces only 1–2. OBJECTIVE: We evaluate the contribution of responses to weather risk to that gap by decomposing the yield gap in maize in Zambia. While we know that improved seed and fertilizer can expand yield and profit, they may also increase the variance of yield under different weather outcomes, reducing their adoption. METHODS: We use a novel approach combining crop modeling and statistical analysis of survey data to obtain the yield gap components in Zambia driven by input cost and input risk. We use a crop model to simulate district-level marginal effects of fertilizer and seed maturity choice on the mean and variance of expected yield and profit under all-weather outcomes for each district for the past 30 years. We compare input levels that maximize expected yield to those that maximize expected profit and maximize the expected mean-variance trade-off assuming risk-aversion. To determine how much farmers\u27 input choices are made to reduce risk, we then quantify differences in the expected riskiness of inputs by district. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: We find approximately one-quarter of the yield gap can be explained by risk-reducing behavior, albeit with a substantial geographic variation. Given this finding, under present conditions, we expect that the average maximum yield that farmers can obtain without increasing risk is 6.75 t/ha compared to a potential profit-maximizing level of 8.84 t/ha. SIGNIFICANCE: The risk-related yield gap is only expected to increase with weather extremes driven by climate change. Promoting “one-size-fits all” solutions to closing the yield gap could underestimate the effect of risk mitigation on agricultural production while increasing farmers\u27 risk exposure. © 2023 The Author

Is closing the agricultural yield gap a “risky” endeavor?

CONTEXT: Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has the climatic and biophysical potential to grow the crops it needs to meet rapidly growing food demand; however, agricultural productivity remains low. While potential maize yields in Zambia are 9 t per hectare (t/ha), the average farmer produces only 1–2. OBJECTIVE: We evaluate the contribution of responses to weather risk to that gap by decomposing the yield gap in maize in Zambia. While we know that improved seed and fertilizer can expand yield and profit, they may also increase the variance of yield under different weather outcomes, reducing their adoption. METHODS: We use a novel approach combining crop modeling and statistical analysis of survey data to obtain the yield gap components in Zambia driven by input cost and input risk. We use a crop model to simulate district-level marginal effects of fertilizer and seed maturity choice on the mean and variance of expected yield and profit under all-weather outcomes for each district for the past 30 years. We compare input levels that maximize expected yield to those that maximize expected profit and maximize the expected mean-variance trade-off assuming risk-aversion. To determine how much farmers' input choices are made to reduce risk, we then quantify differences in the expected riskiness of inputs by district. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: We find approximately one-quarter of the yield gap can be explained by risk-reducing behavior, albeit with a substantial geographic variation. Given this finding, under present conditions, we expect that the average maximum yield that farmers can obtain without increasing risk is 6.75 t/ha compared to a potential profit-maximizing level of 8.84 t/ha. SIGNIFICANCE: The risk-related yield gap is only expected to increase with weather extremes driven by climate change. Promoting “one-size-fits all” solutions to closing the yield gap could underestimate the effect of risk mitigation on agricultural production while increasing farmers.CONTEXTO: El África subsahariana (ASS) tiene el potencial climático y biofísico para aumentar los cultivos que necesita para satisfacer la creciente demanda de alimentos; sin embargo, la productividad agrícola sigue siendo baja. Si bien los rendimientos potenciales del maíz en Zambia son de 9 t por hectárea (t/ha), el agricultor promedio produce sólo 1-2. OBJETIVO: Evaluamos la contribución de las respuestas al riesgo climático a esa brecha descomponiendo la brecha de rendimiento del maíz en Zambia. Si bien sabemos que las semillas y los fertilizantes mejorados pueden aumentar el rendimiento y las ganancias, también pueden aumentar la variación del rendimiento en diferentes condiciones climáticas, lo que reduce su adopción. MÉTODO: Utilizamos un enfoque novedoso que combina modelos de cultivos y análisis estadístico de datos de encuestas para obtener los componentes de la brecha de rendimiento en Zambia impulsados por el costo y el riesgo de los insumos. Utilizamos un modelo de cultivo para simular los efectos marginales a nivel de distrito de la elección de la madurez de las semillas y los fertilizantes sobre la media y la varianza del rendimiento y la ganancia esperados bajo resultados en cualquier condición climática para cada distrito durante los últimos 30 años. Comparamos los niveles de insumos que maximizan el rendimiento esperado con aquellos que maximizan el beneficio esperado y maximizan la compensación esperada entre media y varianza suponiendo aversión al riesgo. Para determinar en qué medida los agricultores eligen insumos para reducir el riesgo, luego cuantificamos las diferencias en el riesgo esperado de los insumos por distrito. RESULTADOS Y CONCLUSIONES: Encontramos que aproximadamente una cuarta parte de la brecha de rendimiento puede explicarse por un comportamiento de reducción de riesgos, aunque con una variación geográfica sustancial. Dado este hallazgo, en las condiciones actuales, esperamos que el rendimiento máximo promedio que los agricultores pueden obtener sin aumentar el riesgo sea de 6,75 t/ha en comparación con un nivel potencial de maximización de ganancias de 8,84 t/ha. SIGNIFICADO: Sólo se espera que la brecha de rendimiento relacionada con el riesgo aumente con los extremos climáticos impulsados por el cambio climático. Promover soluciones únicas para cerrar la brecha de rendimiento podría subestimar el efecto de la mitigación de riesgos en la producción agrícola y al mismo tiempo aumentar los agricultores.Centro de Investigación en Economía y ProspectivaFil: Gatti, Nicolás. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Centro de Investigación en Economía y Prospectiva (CIEP); ArgentinaFil: Gatti, Nicolás. Universidad del Centro de Estudios Macroeconómicos de Argentina (UCEMA); ArgentinaFil: Cecil, Michael. Clark University. Department of Geography; Estados UnidosFil: Baylis, Kathy. University of California Santa Barbara. Department of Geography; Estados UnidosFil: Estes, Lyndon. Clark University. Department of Geography; Estados UnidosFil: Blekking, Jordan. Indiana University. Bloomington Department of Geography; Estados UnidosFil: Heckelei, Thomas. Universitaet Bonn. Institute for Food and Resource Economics; AlemaniaFil: Vergopolan, Noemi. Princeton University. Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program; Estados UnidosFi: Evans, Tom. University of Arizona. School of Geography, Development & Environment; Estados Unido

Immunohistochemical Characterization of the Human Sublingual Mucosa

The sublingual locus has recently received great attention as a delivery site for various immunotherapies, including those that induce allergen-specific tolerance, and for vaccines that generate protective immunity. To further understand the immune functions of the human sublingual mucosa, we characterized the distribution of various immunocytes therein by immunohistochemistry. We identified professional antigen presenting cells (APCs), including Langerhans cells (LCs) and macrophages. CD1a+ and langerin+ LCs were further found to be distributed in the basal and supra-basal layers of the epithelium, and macrophages were identified in the lamina propria. HLA-DR+ cells were observed in both the epithelium and the lamina propria, which mirrors the tissue distribution of LCs and macrophages within these tissues. CD3+, CD4+, and CD8+ T cells were found to be distributed along the basal layer of the epithelium and also in the lamina propria. Although B cells, plasma cells, and Foxp3+ regulatory T cells (Tregs) were only occasionally observed in the human sublingual mucosa in the absence of inflammation, they did show enrichment at inflammatory sites. Hence, we have further elucidated the immune cell component distribution in human sublingual mucosa

The SINS/zC-SINF survey of z~2 galaxy kinematics: Outflow properties

Based on SINFONI Ha, [NII] and [SII] AO data of 30 z \sim 2 star-forming galaxies (SFGs) from the SINS and zcSINF surveys, we find a strong correlation of the Ha broad flux fraction with the star formation surface density of the galaxy, with an apparent threshold for strong outflows occurring at 1 Msun yr^-1 kpc^-2. Above this threshold, we find that SFGs with logm_\ast>10 have similar or perhaps greater wind mass loading factors (eta = Mdotout/SFR) and faster outflow velocities than lower mass SFGs. This trend suggests that the majority of outflowing gas at z \sim 2 may derive from high-mass SFGs, and that the z \sim 2 mass-metallicity relation is driven more by dilution of enriched gas in the galaxy gas reservoir than by the efficiency of outflows. The mass loading factor is also correlated with the SFR and inclination, such that more star-forming and face-on galaxies launch more powerful outflows. For galaxies that have evidence for strong outflows, we find that the broad emission is spatially extended to at least the half-light radius (\sim a few kpc). We propose that the observed threshold for strong outflows and the observed mass loading of these winds can be explained by a simple model wherein break-out of winds is governed by pressure balance in the disk. Using the ratio of the [SII] doublet in a broad and narrow component, we find that outflowing gas has a density of \sim10-100 cm^-3, significantly less than that of the star forming gas (600 cm^-3).Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures, accepted by Ap

Keeping Pace with Your Eating: Visual Feedback Affects Eating Rate in Humans

Deliberately eating at a slower pace promotes satiation and eating quickly has been associated with a higher body mass index. Therefore, understanding factors that affect eating rate should be given high priority. Eating rate is affected by the physical/textural properties of a food, by motivational state, and by portion size and palatability. This study explored the prospect that eating rate is also influenced by a hitherto unexplored cognitive process that uses ongoing perceptual estimates of the volume of food remaining in a container to adjust intake during a meal. A 2 (amount seen; 300ml or 500ml) x 2 (amount eaten; 300ml or 500ml) between-subjects design was employed (10 participants in each condition). In two ‘congruent’ conditions, the same amount was seen at the outset and then subsequently consumed (300ml or 500ml). To dissociate visual feedback of portion size and actual amount consumed, food was covertly added or removed from a bowl using a peristaltic pump. This created two additional ‘incongruent’ conditions, in which 300ml was seen but 500ml was eaten or vice versa. We repeated these conditions using a savoury soup and a sweet dessert. Eating rate (ml per second) was assessed during lunch. After lunch we assessed fullness over a 60-minute period. In the congruent conditions, eating rate was unaffected by the actual volume of food that was consumed (300ml or 500ml). By contrast, we observed a marked difference across the incongruent conditions. Specifically, participants who saw 300ml but actually consumed 500ml ate at a faster rate than participants who saw 500ml but actually consumed 300ml. Participants were unaware that their portion size had been manipulated. Nevertheless, when it disappeared faster or slower than anticipated they adjusted their rate of eating accordingly. This suggests that the control of eating rate involves visual feedback and is not a simple reflexive response to orosensory stimulatio

Velocity-space sensitivity of the time-of-flight neutron spectrometer at JET

The velocity-space sensitivities of fast-ion diagnostics are often described by so-called weight functions. Recently, we formulated weight functions showing the velocity-space sensitivity of the often dominant beam-target part of neutron energy spectra. These weight functions for neutron emission spectrometry (NES) are independent of the particular NES diagnostic. Here we apply these NES weight functions to the time-of-flight spectrometer TOFOR at JET. By taking the instrumental response function of TOFOR into account, we calculate time-of-flight NES weight functions that enable us to directly determine the velocity-space sensitivity of a given part of a measured time-of-flight spectrum from TOFOR

On the mechanisms governing gas penetration into a tokamak plasma during a massive gas injection

A new 1D radial fluid code, IMAGINE, is used to simulate the penetration of gas into a tokamak plasma during a massive gas injection (MGI). The main result is that the gas is in general strongly braked as it reaches the plasma, due to mechanisms related to charge exchange and (to a smaller extent) recombination. As a result, only a fraction of the gas penetrates into the plasma. Also, a shock wave is created in the gas which propagates away from the plasma, braking and compressing the incoming gas. Simulation results are quantitatively consistent, at least in terms of orders of magnitude, with experimental data for a D 2 MGI into a JET Ohmic plasma. Simulations of MGI into the background plasma surrounding a runaway electron beam show that if the background electron density is too high, the gas may not penetrate, suggesting a possible explanation for the recent results of Reux et al in JET (2015 Nucl. Fusion 55 093013)

Modelling of the effect of ELMs on fuel retention at the bulk W divertor of JET

Effect of ELMs on fuel retention at the bulk W target of JET ITER-Like Wall was studied with multi-scale calculations. Plasma input parameters were taken from ELMy H-mode plasma experiment. The energetic intra-ELM fuel particles get implanted and create near-surface defects up to depths of few tens of nm, which act as the main fuel trapping sites during ELMs. Clustering of implantation-induced vacancies were found to take place. The incoming flux of inter-ELM plasma particles increases the different filling levels of trapped fuel in defects. The temperature increase of the W target during the pulse increases the fuel detrapping rate. The inter-ELM fuel particle flux refills the partially emptied trapping sites and fills new sites. This leads to a competing effect on the retention and release rates of the implanted particles. At high temperatures the main retention appeared in larger vacancy clusters due to increased clustering rate

Relationship of edge localized mode burst times with divertor flux loop signal phase in JET

A phase relationship is identified between sequential edge localized modes (ELMs) occurrence times in a set of H-mode tokamak plasmas to the voltage measured in full flux azimuthal loops in the divertor region. We focus on plasmas in the Joint European Torus where a steady H-mode is sustained over several seconds, during which ELMs are observed in the Be II emission at the divertor. The ELMs analysed arise from intrinsic ELMing, in that there is no deliberate intent to control the ELMing process by external means. We use ELM timings derived from the Be II signal to perform direct time domain analysis of the full flux loop VLD2 and VLD3 signals, which provide a high cadence global measurement proportional to the voltage induced by changes in poloidal magnetic flux. Specifically, we examine how the time interval between pairs of successive ELMs is linked to the time-evolving phase of the full flux loop signals. Each ELM produces a clear early pulse in the full flux loop signals, whose peak time is used to condition our analysis. The arrival time of the following ELM, relative to this pulse, is found to fall into one of two categories: (i) prompt ELMs, which are directly paced by the initial response seen in the flux loop signals; and (ii) all other ELMs, which occur after the initial response of the full flux loop signals has decayed in amplitude. The times at which ELMs in category (ii) occur, relative to the first ELM of the pair, are clustered at times when the instantaneous phase of the full flux loop signal is close to its value at the time of the first ELM