Remote sensing of supraglacial lakes on the Greenland Ice Sheet.

The dynamic mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet has prompted considerable research into the role of supraglacial lakes in causing dynamic thinning. These lakes can drain through 1000 m of ice to the bed and are thought to play an important role in connecting the surface and basal hydrologies of the ice sheet, allowing water to reach the bed and cause the ice to accelerate. Despite this apparent importance little research has been carried out on lakes outside of SVV Greenland, and no research has examined the occurrence of lake drainage over the whole of Greenland. The aim of this thesis is to discover where lakes occur for the entire Greenland ice Sheet, and how these lakes drain. New remote sensing techniques for monitoring lakes through the melt season were developed and tested. The evolution of 2600 lakes (those lakes larger than > 0.125 km2) was studied over five years (2005-2009) using 3704 MODIS images. Lakes were discovered to either drain fast to the bed, more slowly over the surface, or to freeze at the end of the melt season. There were 263 fast lake drainages per year of which 61% were in the SW region and a further 17% in the NE, both regions where mass loss is mainly due to surface mass balance. In the dynamically thinning SE region there were only three fast lake drainages per year along a 1300 km coastline. In the NW, fast lake drainage did not occur on five of the ten glaciers with the most rapid dynamic thinning. The results of this thesis show that the drainage of supraglacial lakes cannot have been responsible for dynamic mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet

Modeling Seasonal Distribution of Irrawaddy Dolphins (Orcaella brevirostris) in a Transnational Important Marine Mammal Area

Fishing activities continue to decimate populations of marine mammals, fish, and their habitats in the coastal waters of the Kep Archipelago, a cluster of tropical islands on the Cambodia-Vietnam border. In 2019, the area was recognized as an Important Marine Mammal Area, largely owing to the significant presence of Irrawaddy dolphins (Orcaella brevirostris). Understanding habitat preferences and distribution aids in the identification of areas to target for monitoring and conservation, which is particularly challenging in data-limited nations of Southeast Asia. Here, we test the hypothesis that accurate seasonal habitat models, relying on environmental data and species occurrences alone, can be used to describe the ecological processes governing abundance for the resident dolphin population of the Kep Archipelago, Cambodia. Leveraging two years of species and oceanographic data—depth, slope, distance to shore and rivers, sea surface temperature, and chlorophyll-a concentration—we built temporally stratified models to estimate distribution and infer seasonal habitat importance. Overall, Irrawaddy dolphins of Kep displayed habitat preferences similar to other populations, and were predominately encountered in three situations: (1) water depths ranging from 3.0 to 5.3 m, (2) surface water temperatures of 27–32°C, and (3) in close proximity to offshore islands (< 7.5 km). With respect to seasonality, statistical tests detected significant differences for all environment variables considered except seafloor slope. Four predictor sets, each with a unique combination of variables, were used to map seasonal variation in dolphin habitat suitability. Models with highest variable importance scores were water depth, pre- and during monsoon season (61–62%), and sea surface temperature, post-monsoon (71%), which suggests that greater freshwater flow during the wet season may alter primary productivity and dolphin prey abundance. Importantly, findings show the majority of areas with highest habitat suitability are not currently surveyed for dolphins and located outside Kep’s Marine Fisheries Management Area. This research confirms the need to expand monitoring to new areas where high-impact fisheries and other human activities operate. Baseline knowledge on dolphin distribution can guide regional conservation efforts by taking into account the seasonality of the species and support the design of tailored management strategies that address transboundary threats to an Important Marine Mammal Area

North-east sector of the Greenland Ice Sheet to undergo the greatest inland expansion of supraglacial lakes during the 21st century

The formation and rapid drainage of supraglacial lakes (SGL) influences the mass balance and dynamics of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Although SGLs are expected to spread inland during the 21st century due to atmospheric warming, less is known about their future spatial distribution and volume. We use GrIS surface elevation model and regional climate model outputs to show that at the end of the 21st century (2070-2099) approximately 9.8 ± 3.9 km3 (+113% compared to 1980-2009) and 12.6 ± 5 km3 (+174%) of meltwater could be stored in SGLs under moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) climate change scenarios respectively. The largest increase is expected in the north-eastern sector of the GrIS (191% in RCP 4.5 and 320% in RCP 8.5), whereas in west Greenland, where the most SGLs are currently observed, the future increase will be relatively moderate (55% in RCP 4.5 and 68% in RCP 8.5)

Recent Advances in Our Understanding of the Role of Meltwater in the Greenland Ice Sheet System

Nienow, Sole and Cowton’s Greenland research has been supported by a number of UK NERC research grants (NER/O/S/2003/00620; NE/F021399/1; NE/H024964/1; NE/K015249/1; NE/K014609/1) and Slater has been supported by a NERC PhD studentshipPurpose of the review:  This review discusses the role that meltwater plays within the Greenland ice sheet system. The ice sheet’s hydrology is important because it affects mass balance through its impact on meltwater runoff processes and ice dynamics. The review considers recent advances in our understanding of the storage and routing of water through the supraglacial, englacial, and subglacial components of the system and their implications for the ice sheet Recent findings:   There have been dramatic increases in surface meltwater generation and runoff since the early 1990s, both due to increased air temperatures and decreasing surface albedo. Processes in the subglacial drainage system have similarities to valley glaciers and in a warming climate, the efficiency of meltwater routing to the ice sheet margin is likely to increase. The behaviour of the subglacial drainage system appears to limit the impact of increased surface melt on annual rates of ice motion, in sections of the ice sheet that terminate on land, while the large volumes of meltwater routed subglacially deliver significant volumes of sediment and nutrients to downstream ecosystems. Summary:  Considerable advances have been made recently in our understanding of Greenland ice sheet hydrology and its wider influences. Nevertheless, critical gaps persist both in our understanding of hydrology-dynamics coupling, notably at tidewater glaciers, and in runoff processes which ensure that projecting Greenland’s future mass balance remains challenging.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

The influence of hydrology on the dynamics of land-terminating sectors of the Greenland ice sheet

Coupling between runoff, hydrology, basal motion, and mass loss (“hydrology-dynamics”) is a critical component of the Greenland Ice Sheet system. Despite considerable research effort, the mechanisms by which runoff influences ice dynamics and the net long-term (decadal and longer) dynamical effect of variations in the timing and magnitude of runoff delivery to the bed remain a subject of debate. We synthesise key research into land-terminating ice sheet hydrology-dynamics, in order to reconcile several apparent contradictions that have recently arisen as understanding of the topic has developed. We suggest that meltwater interaction with subglacial channels, cavities, and deforming subglacial sediment modulates ice flow variability. Increasing surface runoff supply to the bed induces cavity expansion and sediment deformation, leading to early-melt season ice flow acceleration. In the ablation area, drainage of water at times of low runoff from high-pressure subglacial environments toward more efficient drainage pathways is thought to result in reductions in water pressure, ice-bed separation and sediment deformation, causing net slow-down on annual to decadal time-scales (ice flow self-regulation), despite increasing surface melt. Further inland, thicker ice, small surface gradients and reduced runoff suppress efficient drainage development, and a small net increase in both summer and winter ice flow is observed. Predicting ice motion across land-terminating sectors of the ice sheet over the twenty-first century is confounded by inadequate understanding of the processes and feedbacks between runoff and subglacial motion. However, if runoff supply increases, we suggest that ice flow in marginal regions will continue to decrease on annual and longer timescales, principally due to (i) increasing drainage system efficiency in marginal areas, (ii) progressive depression of basal water pressure, and (iii) thinning-induced lowering of driving stresses. At higher elevations, we suggest that minor year-on-year ice flow acceleration will continue and extend further into the interior where self-regulation mechanisms cannot operate and if surface-to-bed meltwater connections form. Based on current understanding, we expect that ice flow deceleration due to the seasonal development of efficient drainage beneath the land-terminating margins of the Greenland Ice Sheet will continue to regulate its future mass loss

Modelling environmental influences on calving at Helheim Glacier in eastern Greenland

Calving is an important mass-loss process for many glaciers worldwide, and has been assumed to respond to a variety of environmental influences. We present a grounded, flowline tidewater glacier model using a physically-based calving mechanism, applied to Helheim Glacier, eastern Greenland. By qualitatively examining both modelled size and frequency of calving events, and the subsequent dynamic response, the model is found to realistically reproduce key aspects of observed calving behaviour. Experiments explore four environmental variables which have been suggested to affect calving rates: water depth in crevasses, basal water pressure, undercutting of the calving face by submarine melt and backstress from ice mélange. Of the four variables, only crevasse water depth and basal water pressure were found to have a significant effect on terminus behaviour when applied at a realistic magnitude. These results are in contrast to previous modelling studies, which have suggested that ocean temperatures could strongly influence the calving front. The results raise the possibility that Greenland outlet glaciers could respond to the recent trend of increased surface melt observed in Greenland more strongly than previously thought, as surface ablation can strongly affect water depth in crevasses and water pressure at the glacier bed

Controls on the Early Holocene Collapse of the Bothnian Sea Ice Stream

New high resolution multibeam data in the Gulf of Bothnia reveal for the first time the subglacial environment of a Bothnian Sea Ice Stream. The geomorphological record suggests that increased meltwater production may have been important in driving rapid retreat of Bothnian Sea ice during deglaciation. Here we apply a well-established one-dimensional flowline model to simulate ice flow through the Gulf of Bothnia and investigate controls on retreat of the ice stream during the post-Younger Dryas deglaciation of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet. The relative influence of atmospheric and marine forcings are investigated, with the modelled ice stream exhibiting much greater sensitivity to surface melting, implemented through surface mass balance and hydrofracture-induced calving, than to submarine melting or relative sea level change. Such sensitivity is supported by the presence of extensive meltwater features in the geomorphological record. The modelled ice stream does not demonstrate significant sensitivity to changes in prescribed ice stream width or overall bed slope, but local variations in basal topography and ice stream width result in non-linear retreat of the grounding line, notably demonstrating points of short-lived retreat slowdown on reverse bed slopes. Retreat of the ice stream was most likely governed by increased ice surface meltwater production, with the modelled retreat rate less sensitive to marine forcings despite the marine setting

Evaluation of Antibody Tests for <i>Mycobacterium bovis</i> Infection in Pigs and Deer

This study addressed the need in Great Britain for supplementary blood tests for deer and pig herds under movement restrictions due to confirmed Mycobacterium bovis infection—to enhance the overall sensitivity and reliability of tuberculosis (TB) testing and contribute to an exit strategy for these herds. We evaluated four antibody tests (lateral flow DPP VetTB Assay for Cervids, M. bovis IDEXX ELISA, Enferplex Cervid and Porcine antibody tests and an in-house comparative PPD ELISA) using serum samples from defined cohorts of TB-infected and TB-free deer and pigs. TB-infected deer included two separate cohorts; farmed deer that had received a tuberculin skin test less than 30 days prior, and park deer that had received no prior skin test. In this way, we were able to assess the effect of the skin test anamnestic boost upon antibody test sensitivity. We tested a total of 402 TB-free pigs and 416 TB-free deer, 77 infected farmed deer and 105 infected park deer, and 29 infected pigs (including 2 wild boar). For deer, we found an equivalent high performance of all four tests: specificity range 98.8–99.5% and sensitivity range 76.6–85.7% for skin test-boosted infected deer, and 51.4–58.1% for non-boosted infected deer. These data suggest an overall approximate 25% increase in test sensitivity for infected deer following a skin test boost. For pigs, the tests again had equivalent high specificity of 99–99.5% and a sensitivity range of 62.1–86.2%, with substantial agreement for three of the four tests. Retrospective application of the ELISA tests to individual culled park deer and wild boar that showed no obvious evidence of TB at larder inspection identified a significant seropositivity within wild boar suggestive of low-level M. bovis infection that would otherwise not have been detected. Overall this investigation provided a robust evaluation of four antibody tests, which is essential to generate confidence in test performance before a wider deployment within TB control measures can be considered