Numerical Schemes for Fractional Energy Balance Model of Climate Change with Diffusion Effects

This study aims to propose numerical schemes for fractional time discretization of partial differential equations (PDEs). The scheme is comprised of two stages. Using von Neumann stability analysis, we ensure the robustness of the scheme. The energy balance model for climate change is modified by adding source terms. The local stability analysis of the model is presented. Also, the fractional model in the form of PDEs with the effect of diffusion is given and solved by applying the proposed scheme. The proposed scheme is compared with the existing scheme, which shows a faster convergence of the presented scheme than the existing one. The effects of feedback, deep ocean heat uptake, and heat source parameters on global mean surface and deep ocean temperatures are displayed in graphs. The current study is cemented by the fact-based popular approximations of the surveys and modeling techniques, which have been the focus of several researchers for thousands of years.Mathematics Subject Classification:65P99, 86Axx, 35Fxx. Doi: 10.28991/ESJ-2023-07-03-011 Full Text: PD

A Third-order Two Stage Numerical Scheme and Neural Network Simulations for SEIR Epidemic Model: A Numerical Study

This study focuses on the cutting-edge field of epidemic modeling, providing a comprehensive investigation of a third-order two-stage numerical approach combined with neural network simulations for the SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed) epidemic model. An explicit numerical scheme is proposed in this work for dealing with both linear and nonlinear boundary value problems. The scheme is built on two grid points, or two time levels, and is third-order. The main advantage of the scheme is its order of accuracy in two stages. Third-order precision is not only not provided by most existing explicit numerical approaches in two phases, but it also necessitates the computation of an additional derivative of the dependent variable. The proposed scheme's consistency and stability are also examined and presented. Nonlinear SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered) models are used to implement the scheme. The scheme is compared with the non-standard finite difference and forward Euler methods that are already in use. The graph shows that the plan is more accurate than non-standard finite difference and forward Euler methods that are already in use. The solution obtained is then looked at through the lens of the neural network. The neural network is trained using an optimization approach known as the Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation (LMB) algorithm. The mean square error across the total number of iterations, error histograms, and regression plots are the various graphs that can be created from this process. This work conducts thorough evaluations to not only identify the strengths and weaknesses of the suggested approach but also to examine its implications for public health intervention. The results of this study make a valuable contribution to the continuously developing field of epidemic modeling. They emphasize the importance of employing modern numerical techniques and machine learning algorithms to enhance our capacity to predict and effectively control infectious diseases. Doi: 10.28991/ESJ-2024-08-01-023 Full Text: PD

A Computational Approach to a Mathematical Model of Climate Change Using Heat Sources and Diffusion

The present work aims to extend the climate change energy balance models using a heat source. An ordinary differential equations (ODEs) model is extended to a partial differential equations (PDEs) model using the effects of diffusion over the spatial variable. In addition, numerical schemes are presented using the Taylor series expansions. For the climate change model in the form of ODEs, a comparison of the presented scheme is made with the existing Trapezoidal method. It is found that the presented scheme converges faster than the existing scheme. Also, the proposed scheme provides fewer errors than the existing scheme. The PDEs model is also solved with the presented scheme, and the results are displayed in the form of different graphs. The impact of the climate feedback parameter, the heat uptake parameter of the deep ocean, and the heat source parameter on global mean surface temperature and deep ocean temperature is also portrayed. In addition, these recently developed techniques exhibit a high level of predictability. Doi: 10.28991/CEJ-2022-08-07-04 Full Text: PD

Numerical modeling of mixed convective nanofluid flow with fractal stochastic heat and mass transfer using finite differences

This study presents the first comprehensive numerical simulation of heat and mass transfer in fractal-like mixed convective nanofluid flows. The flow of non-Newtonian nanofluids over flat and oscillating sheets is modelled mathematically, and a finite difference scheme is used to solve this model. The two-stage scheme can tackle fractal and fractal stochastic mathematical models of partial differential equations. The consistency in the mean square is proved, and Fourier series stability analysis is adopted to find stability conditions for fractal stochastic partial differential equation. The scheme is applied to solve the unsteady Casson nanofluid flow over the flat and oscillatory sheet, which affects thermal radiation, heat source, and chemical reaction. The existence of the solution is also provided for the Navier-Stokes equation of the considered flow model using fractal time derivative. The graph illustrates that the proposed fractal technique achieves faster convergence than the Crank-Nicolson approach. Applications in energy systems, materials science, and environmental engineering are just a few of the domains that could benefit from a better understanding of mixed convective nanofluid flows with fractal features, and that is what this research study hopes to accomplish. Scientists and engineers may better develop efficient and environmentally friendly systems by simulating and analyzing these complicated processes with the suggested finite difference technique

ICT, FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN BRICS COUNTRIES

The development and transformation of advanced technologies are considered vital for maintaining competitive economic growth and to have treasure and capacity of more efficient energy in the region. This has attracted many researchers and policy makers to explore the impact of ICT and other digital technologies to check their contribution in the country’s economic growth and sustainability. In lieu of these connections, the study aims to explore the impact of ICT and financial development on economic growth of BRICS countries. We analyzed the data of these countries from 2000 to 2018. The data was checked for the penal protocol procedures and hypothesis were tasted using Quantile Regression. The outcomes of the study revealed that all dimensions of ICT i.e. ICT-Tel, ICT-Mob and ICT-Net have positive significant effect of the GDP of BRICS countries. The results also highlight the impact of financial development on economic growth and reported positive significant impact of financial development on the economic growth of this region. The results are expected to be very meaningful for the relevant regulatory bodies and specially the economic think tank of these countries. &nbsp

Performance Evaluation of Solar Cells by Different Simulating Softwares

In the contemporary era of technological advancements, solar energy emerges as a promising and easily implementable solution to meet future energy demands sustainably. This chapter delves into recent innovative techniques and simulation software pertaining to this environmentally friendly technology, focusing on device simulation, novel structures, and cutting-edge methods. A comparative analysis among major solar cell modeling simulators, such as PC1D, SCAPS-1D, wxAMPS-1D, AMPS-1D, ASA, Gpvdm, SETFOS, PECSIM, ASPIN, ADEPT, AFORS-HET, TCAD, and SILVACO ALTAS, is presented. These simulators not only aid in analyzing fabricated cells but also predict the impact of device modifications. The current year has witnessed significant efforts in developing sustainable energy systems through innovative solar cell simulators and semiconductor models. A concise evaluation of well-established solar cell simulators is provided to identify the most reliable tool for assessing photovoltaic technology performance. The chapter offers a user-friendly linear operating procedure and a congenial dialog box for multi-junction solar cells, providing valuable benefits for scientists, researchers, and skilled programmers in the photovoltaic community. This solar simulation software plays a crucial role in designing environment-friendly solar energy systems and calculating potential solar PV system outcomes for various projects, both grid-tied and off-grid, continually improving the solar energy technology landscape

Estimation of Finite Population Mean by Utilizing the Auxiliary and Square of the Auxiliary Information

This article fundamentally aims at the proposition of new family of estimators using auxiliary information to assist the estimation of finite population mean of the study variable. The objectives are achieved by devising dual use of supplementary information through straightforward manner. The additional information is injected in mean estimating procedure by considering squared values of auxiliary variable. The utility of the proposed scheme is substantiated by providing rigorous comparative account of the newly materialized structure with the well celebrated existing family of Grover and Kaur (2014). The contemporary advents of the new family are documented throughout the article

Effects of a high-dose 24-h infusion of tranexamic acid on death and thromboembolic events in patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding (HALT-IT): an international randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

Background: Tranexamic acid reduces surgical bleeding and reduces death due to bleeding in patients with trauma. Meta-analyses of small trials show that tranexamic acid might decrease deaths from gastrointestinal bleeding. We aimed to assess the effects of tranexamic acid in patients with gastrointestinal bleeding. Methods: We did an international, multicentre, randomised, placebo-controlled trial in 164 hospitals in 15 countries. Patients were enrolled if the responsible clinician was uncertain whether to use tranexamic acid, were aged above the minimum age considered an adult in their country (either aged 16 years and older or aged 18 years and older), and had significant (defined as at risk of bleeding to death) upper or lower gastrointestinal bleeding. Patients were randomly assigned by selection of a numbered treatment pack from a box containing eight packs that were identical apart from the pack number. Patients received either a loading dose of 1 g tranexamic acid, which was added to 100 mL infusion bag of 0·9% sodium chloride and infused by slow intravenous injection over 10 min, followed by a maintenance dose of 3 g tranexamic acid added to 1 L of any isotonic intravenous solution and infused at 125 mg/h for 24 h, or placebo (sodium chloride 0·9%). Patients, caregivers, and those assessing outcomes were masked to allocation. The primary outcome was death due to bleeding within 5 days of randomisation; analysis excluded patients who received neither dose of the allocated treatment and those for whom outcome data on death were unavailable. This trial was registered with Current Controlled Trials, ISRCTN11225767, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01658124. Findings: Between July 4, 2013, and June 21, 2019, we randomly allocated 12 009 patients to receive tranexamic acid (5994, 49·9%) or matching placebo (6015, 50·1%), of whom 11 952 (99·5%) received the first dose of the allocated treatment. Death due to bleeding within 5 days of randomisation occurred in 222 (4%) of 5956 patients in the tranexamic acid group and in 226 (4%) of 5981 patients in the placebo group (risk ratio [RR] 0·99, 95% CI 0·82–1·18). Arterial thromboembolic events (myocardial infarction or stroke) were similar in the tranexamic acid group and placebo group (42 [0·7%] of 5952 vs 46 [0·8%] of 5977; 0·92; 0·60 to 1·39). Venous thromboembolic events (deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism) were higher in tranexamic acid group than in the placebo group (48 [0·8%] of 5952 vs 26 [0·4%] of 5977; RR 1·85; 95% CI 1·15 to 2·98). Interpretation: We found that tranexamic acid did not reduce death from gastrointestinal bleeding. On the basis of our results, tranexamic acid should not be used for the treatment of gastrointestinal bleeding outside the context of a randomised trial

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980-2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1

Background Measuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time. Methods For this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dosespecific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in countryreported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development. Findings By 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81.6% [95% uncertainty interval 80.4-82 .7]) more than doubled from levels estimated in 1980 (39.9% [37.5-42.1]), as did global coverage of the first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1; from 38.5% [35.4-41.3] in 1980 to 83.6% [82.3-84.8] in 2019). Third- dose polio vaccine (Pol3) coverage also increased, from 42.6% (41.4-44.1) in 1980 to 79.8% (78.4-81.1) in 2019, and global coverage of newer vaccines increased rapidly between 2000 and 2019. The global number of zero-dose children fell by nearly 75% between 1980 and 2019, from 56.8 million (52.6-60. 9) to 14.5 million (13.4-15.9). However, over the past decade, global vaccine coverage broadly plateaued; 94 countries and territories recorded decreasing DTP3 coverage since 2010. Only 11 countries and territories were estimated to have reached the national GVAP target of at least 90% coverage for all assessed vaccines in 2019. Interpretation After achieving large gains in childhood vaccine coverage worldwide, in much of the world this progress was stalled or reversed from 2010 to 2019. These findings underscore the importance of revisiting routine immunisation strategies and programmatic approaches, recentring service delivery around equity and underserved populations. Strengthening vaccine data and monitoring systems is crucial to these pursuits, now and through to 2030, to ensure that all children have access to, and can benefit from, lifesaving vaccines. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe