Agricultural Research Management Training Needs in SADCC

An AEE Working Paper.Management capabilities in agricultural research have been diagnosed as extremely weak in East and Southern Africa. Many agricultural professionals including academics are involved in management but haye not had any formal background in management training. Improving management skills of agricultural professionals is becoming widely recognized as a means of improving productivity in agriculture. For example, the International Agricultural Research Centers including IRRI and CIMMYT are now viewed as being limited in their impacts by management constraints and the thirteenth international research centre, the International Service for National Agricultural Research (ISNAR) has been created to address agricultural research management issues

The risks and benefits of providing HIV services during the COVID-19 pandemic

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused widespread disruptions including to health services. In the early response to the pandemic many countries restricted population movements and some health services were suspended or limited. In late 2020 and early 2021 some countries re-imposed restrictions. Health authorities need to balance the potential harms of additional SARS-CoV-2 transmission due to contacts associated with health services against the benefits of those services, including fewer new HIV infections and deaths. This paper examines these trade-offs for select HIV services. METHODS: We used four HIV simulation models (Goals, HIV Synthesis, Optima HIV and EMOD) to estimate the benefits of continuing HIV services in terms of fewer new HIV infections and deaths. We used three COVID-19 transmission models (Covasim, Cooper/Smith and a simple contact model) to estimate the additional deaths due to SARS-CoV-2 transmission among health workers and clients. We examined four HIV services: voluntary medical male circumcision, HIV diagnostic testing, viral load testing and programs to prevent mother-to-child transmission. We compared COVID-19 deaths in 2020 and 2021 with HIV deaths occurring now and over the next 50 years discounted to present value. The models were applied to countries with a range of HIV and COVID-19 epidemics. RESULTS: Maintaining these HIV services could lead to additional COVID-19 deaths of 0.002 to 0.15 per 10,000 clients. HIV-related deaths averted are estimated to be much larger, 19-146 discounted deaths per 10,000 clients. DISCUSSION: While there is some additional short-term risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission associated with providing HIV services, the risk of additional COVID-19 deaths is at least 100 times less than the HIV deaths averted by those services. Ministries of Health need to take into account many factors in deciding when and how to offer essential health services during the COVID-19 pandemic. This work shows that the benefits of continuing key HIV services are far larger than the risks of additional SARS-CoV-2 transmission

Transmission reduction, health benefits, and upper-bound costs of interventions to improve retention on antiretroviral therapy: a combined analysis of three mathematical models

BACKGROUND: In this so-called treat-all era, antiretroviral therapy (ART) interruptions contribute to an increasing proportion of HIV infections and deaths. Many strategies to improve retention on ART cost more than standard of care. In this study, we aimed to estimate the upper-bound costs at which such interventions should be adopted. METHODS: In this combined analysis, we compared the infections averted, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted, and upper-bound costs of interventions that improve ART retention in three HIV models with diverse structures, assumptions, and baseline settings: EMOD in South Africa, Optima in Malawi, and Synthesis in sub-Saharan African low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We modelled estimates over a 40-year time horizon, from a baseline of Jan 1, 2022, when interventions would be implemented, to Jan 1, 2062. We varied increment of ART retention (25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% retention), the extent to which interventions could be targeted towards individuals at risk of interrupting ART, and cost-effectiveness thresholds in each setting. FINDINGS: Despite simulating different settings and epidemic trends, all three models produced consistent estimates of health benefit (ie, DALYs averted) and transmission reduction per increment in retention. The range of estimates was 1·35-3·55 DALYs and 0·12-0·20 infections averted over the 40-year time horizon per additional person-year retained on ART. Upper-bound costs varied by setting and intervention effectiveness. Improving retention by 25% among all people receiving ART, regardless of risk of ART interruption, gave an upper-bound cost per person-year of US$2-6 in Optima (Malawi),$43-68 in Synthesis (LMICs in sub-Saharan Africa), and $28-180 in EMOD (South Africa). A maximally targeted and effective retention intervention had an upper-bound cost per person-year of US$93-223 in Optima (Malawi), $871-1389 in Synthesis (LMICs in sub-Saharan Africa), and$1013-6518 in EMOD (South Africa). INTERPRETATION: Upper-bound costs that could improve ART retention vary across sub-Saharan African settings and are likely to be similar to or higher than was estimated before the start of the treat-all era. Upper-bound costs could be increased by targeting interventions to those most at risk of interrupting ART. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Perspectives on the use of modelling and economic analysis to guide HIV programmes in sub-Saharan Africa

HIV modelling and economic analyses have had a prominent role in guiding programmatic responses to HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. However, there has been little reflection on how the HIV modelling field might develop in future. HIV modelling should more routinely align with national government and ministry of health priorities, recognising their legitimate mandates and stewardship responsibilities, for HIV and other wider health programmes. Importance should also be placed on ensuring collaboration between modellers, and that joint approaches to addressing modelling questions, becomes the norm rather than the exception. Such an environment can accelerate translation of modelling analyses into policy formulation because areas where models agree can be prioritised for action, whereas areas over which uncertainty prevails can be slated for additional study, data collection, and analysis. HIV modelling should increasingly be integrated with the modelling of health needs beyond HIV, particularly in allocative efficiency analyses, where focusing on one disease over another might lead to worse health overall. Such integration might also enhance partnership with national governments whose mandates extend beyond HIV. Finally, we see a need for there to be substantial and equitable investment in capacity strengthening within African countries, so that African researchers will increasingly be leading modelling exercises. Building a critical mass of expertise, strengthened through external collaboration and knowledge exchange, should be the ultimate goal

Cost-effectiveness of easy-access, risk-informed oral pre-exposure prophylaxis in HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Approaches that allow easy access to pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), such as over-the-counter provision at pharmacies, could facilitate risk-informed PrEP use and lead to lower HIV incidence, but their cost-effectiveness is unknown. We aimed to evaluate conditions under which risk-informed PrEP use is cost-effective. METHODS: We applied a mathematical model of HIV transmission to simulate 3000 setting-scenarios reflecting a range of epidemiological characteristics of communities in sub-Saharan Africa. The prevalence of HIV viral load greater than 1000 copies per mL among all adults (HIV positive and negative) varied from 1·1% to 7·4% (90% range). We hypothesised that if PrEP was made easily available without restriction and with education regarding its use, women and men would use PrEP, with sufficient daily adherence, during so-called seasons of risk (ie, periods in which individuals are at risk of acquiring infection). We refer to this as risk-informed PrEP. For each setting-scenario, we considered the situation in mid-2021 and performed a pairwise comparison of the outcomes of two policies: immediate PrEP scale-up and then continuation for 50 years, and no PrEP. We estimated the relationship between epidemic and programme characteristics and cost-effectiveness of PrEP availability to all during seasons of risk. For our base-case analysis, we assumed a 3-monthly PrEP cost of US$29 (drug$11, HIV test $4, and$14 for additional costs necessary to facilitate education and access), a cost-effectiveness threshold of $500 per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted, an annual discount rate of 3$100 per DALY averted, a discount rate of 7% per annum, the use of PrEP outside of seasons of risk, and reduced uptake of risk-informed PrEP. FINDINGS: In the context of PrEP scale-up such that 66% (90% range across setting-scenarios 46-81) of HIV-negative people with at least one non-primary condomless sex partner take PrEP in any given period, resulting in 2·6% (0·9-6·0) of all HIV negative adults taking PrEP at any given time, risk-informed PrEP was predicted to reduce HIV incidence by 49% (23-78) over 50 years compared with no PrEP. PrEP was cost-effective in 71% of all setting-scenarios, and cost-effective in 76% of setting-scenarios with prevalence of HIV viral load greater than 1000 copies per mL among all adults higher than 2%. In sensitivity analyses with a $100 per DALY averted cost-effectiveness threshold, a 7% per year discount rate, or with PrEP use that was less well risk-informed than in our base case, PrEP was less likely to be cost-effective, but generally remained cost-effective if the prevalence of HIV viral load greater than 1000 copies per mL among all adults was higher than 3%. In sensitivity analyses based on additional setting-scenarios in which risk-informed PrEP was less extensively used, the HIV incidence reduction was smaller, but the cost-effectiveness of risk-informed PrEP was undiminished. INTERPRETATION: Under the assumption that making PrEP easily accessible for all adults in sub-Saharan Africa in the context of community education leads to risk-informed use, PrEP is likely to be cost-effective in settings with prevalence of HIV viral load greater than 1000 copies per mL among all adults higher than 2%, suggesting the need for implementation of such approaches, with ongoing evaluation. FUNDING: US Agency for International Development, US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Pre-treatment and extraction techniques for recovery of added value compounds from wastes throughout the agri-food chain

The enormous quantity of food wastes discarded annually force to look for alternatives for this interesting feedstock. Thus, food bio-waste valorisation is one of the imperatives of the nowadays society. This review is the most comprehensive overview of currently existing technologies and processes in this field. It tackles classical and innovative physical, physico-chemical and chemical methods of food waste pre-treatment and extraction for recovery of added value compounds and detection by modern technologies and are an outcome of the COST Action EUBIS, TD1203 Food Waste Valorisation for Sustainable Chemicals, Materials and Fuels

Strategic approaches to mitigating Hookworm infection: An optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis

Human hookworm infection remains a serious threat to public health, particularly in highly endemic regions. The high mortality rate associated with this infection emphasizes the urgent need for effective control measures and intervention strategies to curb its spread. A nonlinear deterministic hookworm model with saturated incidence is investigated in this paper. The model exhibits a unique disease-free and endemic equilibria, and the reproduction number is computed and explained. Sensitivity analysis shows that increasing the transmission rate, β, the hatching rate, α, the number of eggs excreted within the environment, Ne, and the rate of excretion of the eggs, γ, significantly increases the reproduction number. Based on this analysis, we extend the model to consider optimal control in the presence of three time-dependent controls namely: sanitation, preventative chemotherapy, and shoe-wearing. We define an objective function to be minimized and the conditions necessary for the optimal control are established and proved using Pontryagin’s maximum principle. We present a one-way analysis of variance to evaluate the impact of constant implementation of the control measures on the number of infected individuals. Numerical simulations also show that hookworm infection can be contained in the presence of all control measures. However, a cost-effectiveness analysis shows that combining shoe-wearing control with preventative chemotherapy is the most cost-effective measure for controlling hookworm infection. The results presented hold substantial implications for public health policy, especially in low-income regions

Competitiveness of cassava-based ethanol production in Southern Africa: a case of Angola, Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa and Zambia

Whereas the global economy has from time immemorial depended on fossil fuels, technological innovations are steadily paving ways to relieve pressure from the dwindling resources and combat the environmental consequences that come along with oil extraction and use. Production and use of bio-fuels such as ethanol and bio-diesel are among such innovations that are attracting attention both in developed and developing economies. Although Africa is the largest producer of cassava on the globe, the competitiveness of cassava based ethanol production in Africa has not be been adequately examined. This paper presents results of a feasibility study conducted in Angola, South Africa, Malawi, Mozambique and Zambia on the competitiveness of cassava based ethanol production. The results show that, relative to maize and sugarcane, the use of cassava in ethanol production is competitive on: (1) feed stock availability, 2) low production costs, and 3) high ethanol yield. Cassava has high yield potential of 6 – 40mt/ha compared to maize which yields about 1-3.5mt/ha. Hence less land would be required to grow the crop for ethanol production. Cassava production costs are low compared to sugarcane that requires huge (irrigation) infrastructure. Cassava yields up to16,000l ethanol per hectare compared to maize that yields about 800l/ha and sugarcane that yields about 7200l/ha. However, the study notes that conflict of use between food security needs and bio-fuel production need further understanding. The paper concludes that with large scale investment in cassava production, more research on high yielding cassava varieties and an enabling policy and institutional support, SADC countries would be able to venture into large scale cassava based ethanol production