Nephrops norvegicus in the Adriatic Sea: Connectivity modeling essential fish habitats and management area network

AbstractKnowledge of connectivity among subpopulations is fundamental in the identification of the appropriate geographical scales for stock status evaluation and management, the identification of areas with greater retention rates, and space‐based fisheries management. Here, an integration of hydrodynamic, biological, and habitat models results is used to assess connectivity and support the definition of essential fish habitats (EFH) in the Adriatic Sea, with reference to Nephrops norvegicus, an important benthic commercial resource, the recruitment of which is strongly related to larval dispersal from spawning to recruitment areas. We explored oceanographic and biological connectivity in the Adriatic Sea under a wide and representative variety of oceanographic conditions (winters 2006–2012) by tracking 3D trajectories of larvae released from different areas. We used a Lagrangian model that features a specific larval behavior module with explicit dependence on environmental parameters (i.e., temperature and sediment type) and that is driven by high‐resolution hydrodynamic and meteorological data. The results were used to partition the area in which Nephrops was observed into 20 homogenous management subareas; to assess the connection between spawning, recruitment, and harvesting grounds; and to identify potential subpopulation boundaries as well as the connectivity among the potential subpopulations. The results suggest the presence of at least three distinct subpopulations, which need to be independently managed and conserved, and confirms that the Jabuka‐Pomo pit is the most important spawning area, but alone it cannot sustain Nephrops populations throughout the Adriatic Sea. The results also show the importance to move from particle‐tracking to approaches based on integrated models

Assessing different causes of crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks and appropriate responses for management on the Great Barrier Reef

The crown-of-thorns starfish Acanthaster planci (COTS) has contributed greatly to declines in coral cover on Australia's Great Barrier Reef, and remains one of the major acute disturbances on Indo-Pacific coral reefs. Despite uncertainty about the underlying causes of outbreaks and the management responses that might address them, few studies have critically and directly compared competing hypotheses. This study uses qualitative modelling to compare hypotheses relating to outbreak initiation, explicitly considering the potential role of positive feedbacks, elevated nutrients, and removal of starfish predators by fishing. When nutrients and fishing are considered in isolation, the models indicate that a range of alternative hypotheses are capable of explaining outbreak initiation with similar levels of certainty. The models also suggest that outbreaks may be caused by multiple factors operating simultaneously, rather than by single proximal causes. As the complexity and realism of the models increased, the certainty of outcomes decreased, but key areas that require further research to improve the structure of the models were identified. Nutrient additions were likely to result in outbreaks only when COTS larvae alone benefitted from nutrients. Similarly, the effects of fishing on the decline of corals depended on the complexity of interactions among several categories of fishes. Our work suggests that management approaches which seek to be robust to model structure uncertainty should allow for multiple potential causes of outbreaks. Monitoring programs can provide tests of alternative potential causes of outbreaks if they specifically monitor all key taxa at reefs that are exposed to appropriate combinations of potential causal factors

IMOS national reference stations: A continental-wide physical, chemical and biological coastal observing system

Sustained observations allow for the tracking of change in oceanography and ecosystems, however, these are rare, particularly for the Southern Hemisphere. To address this in part, the Australian Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS) implemented a network of nine National Reference Stations (NRS). The network builds on one long-term location, where monthly water sampling has been sustained since the 1940s and two others that commenced in the 1950s. In-situ continuously moored sensors and an enhanced monthly water sampling regime now collect more than 50 data streams. Building on sampling for temperature, salinity and nutrients, the network now observes dissolved oxygen, carbon, turbidity, currents, chlorophyll a and both phytoplankton and zooplankton. Additional parameters for studies of ocean acidification and bio-optics are collected at a sub-set of sites and all data is made freely and publically available. Our preliminary results demonstrate increased utility to observe extreme events, such as marine heat waves and coastal flooding; rare events, such as plankton blooms; and have, for the first time, allowed for consistent continental scale sampling and analysis of coastal zooplankton and phytoplankton communities. Independent water sampling allows for cross validation of the deployed sensors for quality control of data that now continuously tracks daily, seasonal and annual variation. The NRS will provide multi-decadal time series, against which more spatially replicated short-term studies can be referenced, models and remote sensing products validated, and improvements made to our understanding of how large-scale, long-term change and variability in the global ocean are affecting Australia's coastal seas and ecosystems. The NRS network provides an example of how a continental scaled observing systems can be developed to collect observations that integrate across physics, chemistry and biology

Observation of CP Violation in Charm Decays

A search for charge-parity (CP) violation in D-0 -> K-K+ and D-0 -> pi(-)pi(+) decays is reported, using pp collision data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 5.9 fb(-1) collected at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV with the LHCb detector. The flavor of the charm meson is inferred from the charge of the pion in D* (2010)(+) -> D-0 pi(+) decays or from the charge of the muon in (B) over bar -> D-0 mu(-)(nu) over bar X-mu decays. The difference between the CP asymmetries in D-0 -> K-K+ and D-0 -> pi(-)pi(+) decays is measured to be Delta A(CP) = [-18.2 +/- 3.2(stat) +/- 0.9(syst)] x 10(-4) for pi-tagged and Delta A(CP) = [-9 +/- 8(stat) +/- 5(syst)] x 10(-4) for mu-tagged D-0 mesons. Combining these with previous LHCb results leads to Delta A(CP) = (-15.4 +/- 2.9) x 10(-4), where the uncertainty includes both statistical and systematic contributions. The measured value differs from zero by more than 5 standard deviations. This is the first observation of CP violation in the decay of charm hadrons

Equity and justice in global warming policy

Many countries are implementing or at least considering policies to counter increasingly certain negative impacts from climate change. An increasing amount of research has been devoted to the analysis of the costs of climate change and its mitigation, as well as to the design of policies, such as the international Kyoto Protocol, post-Kyoto negotiations, regional initiatives, and unilateral actions. Although most studies on climate change policies in economics have considered efficiency aspects, there is a growing literature on equity and justice. Climate change policy has important dimensions of distributive justice, both within and across generations, but in this paper we survey only studies on the intragenerational aspect, i.e.., within a generation. We cover several domains including the international, regional, national, sectoral and inter-personal, and examine aspects such as the distribution of burdens from climate change, climate change policy negotiations in general, implementation of climate agreements using tradable emission permits, and the uncertainty of alternatives to emission reductions

An Ecosystem Model of Intermediate Complexity to test management options for fisheries: A case study

Reduction of complexity and capacity to evaluate management strategies are important considerationswhen modelling complex ecosystems. Models of Intermediate Complexity for Ecosystem assessments(MICE) achieve this by representing interactions among a restricted number of crucial species in theecosystem considered. MICE applications are question-driven, heavily dependent on available data forconditioning and aimed at addressing tactical issues. Here we present the development of a MICE for thecentral Adriatic Sea. This area is important ecologically and economically because it supports a commer-cial stock of Norway lobster (Nephrops norvegicus), and a nursery ground for European hake (Merlucciusmerluccius), as well as being subjected to high levels of fishing pressure. Here, Italian and Croatian bottomtrawl fisheries mainly target Norway lobster while impacting juvenile hake. Single-species stock assess-ments for the target species indicate fluctuating trends between 2006 and 2013, as do the survey biomasstrends of most of their prey, underlining the need for a multispecies management plan. The diet of the tar-get species were examined and prey items partitioned into four groups. Consumption of prey groups bypredators was modelled using a Holling Type II functional response. A modified biomass dynamic modelwas used to represent the prey dynamics, projecting them into the future for 10 years (2013\u20132022) andtesting different management strategies, including a discard ban. The most effective management optionwas the protection of larger individuals, which led to a clear improvement in the stock abundance andspawning stock biomass of both hake and Norway lobster without significant adverse effects on theirprey. The discard ban scenario appeared to have knock-on effects on both predators and some of theirprey

Ecosystem modelling provides clues to understanding ecological tipping points

Ecological thresholds, associated with abrupt changes in the state and organisation of ecosystems, challenge both scientists and managers. Adaptive response to such changes, and planning for their occurrence, requires an understanding of the underlying drivers and system responses as well as appropriate monitoring. In addition to field studies, modelling can advance our ability to anticipate or deal with such major ecosystem shifts. Here, we used an existing multispecies model with smooth continuous functions that were modified to include thresholds representing 3 alternative scenarios of predator responses when prey numbers drop below a critical threshold: (I) no threshold-like response; (II) an abrupt decrease in breeding success by 90%, and (III) an abrupt halving of adult survival. Second, we analysed field observations from 3 independent marine case studies (abalone, starfish, penguins) for evidence of abrupt non-linear responses of predators to changes in abundance of principal prey. Third, we compared the model output with empirical results and tested (using both a statistical method and by fitting multispecies models) the 3 alternative response scenarios. With this approach, we found evidence for nonlinear changes in population parameters (such as survival rate) of predators as prey numbers declined below critical thresholds. As an example of the potential for this approach to inform management, we found that abundances of a range of marine predators become more variable as prey numbers decline, which may be a useful indicator that a system is approaching a tipping point

Model of effects of nutrients on a broader range of larval groups.

<p>Effects of nutrients (<b>Nutrients</b>) on COTS (open population), reef invertebrates (<b>Invert</b>), and large (<b>Fish L</b>) and small (<b>Fish S</b>) predatory fishes; <b>CCA</b>: crustose coralline algae, <b>COTS A</b>: COTS adult, <b>COTS J</b>: COTS juvenile. (a) Nutrients facilitate larvae of invertebrates and fish groups as well as CCA. (b) Nutrients facilitate invertebrates and CCA only. (c) Nutrients facilitate fish but not invertebrates or CCA. (d) Nutrients facilitate CCA only.</p