Efficiency of species survey networks can be improved by integrating different monitoring approaches in a spatial prioritization design

Public participation to monitoring programs is increasingly advocated to overcome scarcity of resources and deliver important information for policy-making. Here, we illustrate the design of optimal monitoring networks for bird species of conservation concern in Catalonia (NE Spain), under different scenarios of combined governmental and citizen-science monitoring approaches. In our case study, current government efforts, limited to protected areas, were insufficient to cover the whole spectrum of target species and species-threat levels, reinforcing the assumption that citizen-science data can greatly assist in achieving monitoring targets. However, simply carrying out both government and citizen-science monitoring ad hoc led to inefficiency and duplication of efforts: some species were represented in excess of targets while several features were undersampled. Policy-making should concentrate on providing an adequate platform for coordination of government and public-participatory monitoring to minimize duplicated efforts, overcome the biases of each monitoring program and obtain the best from both

Using predictive models as a spatially explicit support tool for managing cultural landscapes

P. 839-848Due to the high sensitivity of mountain landscapes to environmental changes, the study of land cover dynamics has become an essential tool for guiding management policies. Since the second half of the twentieth century, the Cantabrian Mountains (NW Spain) have been substantially altered by the loss of traditional management practices and, more recently, by the new environmental schemes developed by the Regional Government. This area is a biodiversity hotspot, representing the south-western-most distribution limit for a large number of species in Europe. Therefore, small changes in landscape patterns can result in biodiversity losses. In this study, we analyzed land cover changes in the Cantabrian Mountains from 1991 to 2004 by means of remote sensing techniques, identifying the main driving forces and classifying the territory according to its risk of land cover change. Forest expansion and loss of shrublands were the two major trajectories of change apparent during this period. When modeling the occurrence of these land cover changes, we found that performance of models was related to the nature of the change. The most accurate models were associated with processes of secondary succession, i.e. forest expansion (78.6%), while the least accurate models related to changes linked with management decisions, i.e. loss of shrubs (61.8%). The main drivers of change were variations in the number of goats (for the forest expansion model) and changes in the number of head of sheep and cattle (for the loss of shrubs model). Topographic conditions (altitude and slope) were relevant in both models. Our approach proposes an explicit decision support tool for landscape managers, allowing better identification of the areas where they should focus their attention

Positive futures for Mediterranean wetlands biodiversity and ecosystem services

To change the current negative trend of biodiversity and related ecosystem services, the actors that are capable of changing either policies or daily management of ecosystems or protected areas need to know what their biggest challenges are and how what the impact could be of changes in their current approaches. However, information on what possible futures might bring under the impact of global change and different policy and management measures is a generally recognized knowledge gap. Wetlands only occupy 9% of the land globally, but they provide proportionally significantly more ecosystem services, which are also of high importance (e.g. water provision, regulation of hazards). Especially in regions such as the Mediterranean Basin where wetland extent is decreasing while the human population is increasing, the importance of wetlands for ecosystem services and biodiversity is increasingly disproportionate. Meanwhile, ongoing social and political instability in the region means progress towards Sustainable Development Goals is not a trivial challenge. Information on how policy and management measures could improve the outlook for Mediterranean wetlands biodiversity and ecosystem services is however lacking.This study uses a systematic literature review to identify the pathways, conditions and criteria for positive developments of Mediterranean wetlands under the current global change context. The study is undertaken by the Scientific and Technical Network of MedWet. MedWet is a Mediterranean initiative of 27 Mediterranean countries that have signed the Ramsar convention on the conservation of Mediterranean wetlands.The information from this study is used to develop specific recommendations towards positive futures (e.g. water security, safe coasts). These recommendations are not primarily directed to global platforms, but rather to national governments, NGOs and local citizens’ organizations. These parties are most directly concerned with the benefits from a sustainable development path and the safeguarding of related ecosystem services and biodiversity

Trajectories of wildfire behavior under climate change. Can forest management mitigate the increasing hazard?

Mediterranean forests and fire regimes are closely intertwined. Global change is likely to alter both forest dynamics and wildfire activity, ultimately threatening the provision of ecosystem services and posing greater risks to society. In this paper we evaluate future wildfire behavior by coupling climate projections with simulation models of forest dynamics and wildfire hazard. To do so, we explore different forest management scenarios reflecting different narratives related to EU forestry (promotion of carbon stocks, reduction of water vulnerability, biomass production and business-as-usual) under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate pathways in the period 2020–2100. We used as a study model pure submediterranean Pinus nigra forests of central Catalonia (NE Spain). Forest dynamics were simulated from the 3rd National Forest Inventory (143 stands) using SORTIE-nd software based on climate projections under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. The climate products were also used to estimate fuel moisture conditions (both live and dead) and wind speed. Fuel parameters and fire behavior were then simulated, selecting crown fire initiation potential and rate of spread as key indicators. The results revealed consistent trade-offs between forest dynamics, climate and wildfire. Despite the clear influence exerted by climate, forest management modulates fire behavior, resulting in different trends depending on the climatic pathway. In general, the maintenance of current practices would result in the highest rates of crown fire activity, while management for water vulnerability reduction is postulated as the best alternative to surmount the increasingly hazardous conditions envisaged in RCP 8.5.This work was funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Inno- vation, projects FIREPATHS (PID 2020-116556RA-I00) and UMBRA-CLIM (PID 2019-111781RB-I00), and by the ERANET FORESTERRA project INFORMED (grant number: 29183). LEM was funded with a scholarship by the MSc in European Forestry Programme at the Uni- versity of Lleida. This work was also funded by project FirEUrisk - DEVELOPING A HOLISTIC, RISK-WISE STRATEGY FOR EUROPEAN WILDFIRE MANAGEMENT, which has received funding from the Eu- ropean Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 101003890

Forest expansion in mountain protected areas: trends and consequences for the landscape

Mountain regions in Western Europe have gone through a massive rural–urban migration and the collapse of their traditional socioeconomic system. As a result, forest has occupied many old pastures and croplands. In protected areas – such as National Parks – changes in the landscape can affect biodiversity and other services, including the values that motivated their declaration. Any policy decision in these areas requires quantifying the extent and impact of land-cover changes and their consequences on landscape structure and functioning. In this study we analyze the patterns of change in forest cover during six decades in three mountain National Parks in Spain. Our aim is to quantify those patterns, their effects on the landscape, and discuss the potential consequences for the main natural values and services. We assessed changes in forest cover through reclassification of aerial ortophotographs taken in 1956–57 (past images) and 2016–17 (recent images). The three Parks show a relatively low change in total forest area (+5–10%), and a much larger increase in dense forest (+20–30%), with an important effect of land-use legacies, and similar patterns of landscape homogenization. There were fewer but larger forest patches in 2016 than in 1956, and most of the gain in dense forest occurred in core areas (+20%), while transition areas such as edges, bridges or loops decreased between 30 and 55%. Given their potential consequences on biodiversity and other services, these patterns of land-cover change and landscape configuration should be explicitly considered when designing the sustainable management of abandoned landscapes in protected areas.This work was supported by the Spanish National Parks Autonomous Agency (OAPN) through the research grant GESCLIMFOR (979S/2013), and by the Ministry of Science through the project VULBIMON (CGL2017-90040-R) and a Juan de la Cierva contract to Aitor Ameztegui (IJCI-2016-30049

Synthesizing plausible futures for biodiversity and ecosystem services in Europe and Central Asia using scenario archetypes

Scenarios are a useful tool to explore possible futures of social-ecological systems. The number of scenarios has increased dramatically over recent decades, with a large diversity in temporal and spatial scales, purposes, themes, development methods, and content. Scenario archetypes generically describe future developments and can be useful in meaningfully classifying scenarios, structuring and summarizing the overwhelming amount of information, and enabling scientific outputs to more effectively interface with decision-making frameworks. The Intergovernmental Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) faced this challenge and used scenario archetypes in its assessment of future interactions between nature and society. We describe the use of scenario archetypes in the IPBES Regional Assessment of Europe and Central Asia. Six scenario archetypes for the region are described in terms of their driver assumptions and impacts on nature (including biodiversity) and its contributions to people (including ecosystem services): business-as-usual, economic optimism, regional competition, regional sustainability, global sustainable development, and inequality. The analysis shows that trade-offs between nature’s contributions to people are projected under different scenario archetypes. However, the means of resolving these trade-offs depend on differing political and societal value judgements within each scenario archetype. Scenarios that include proactive decision making on environmental issues, environmental management approaches that support multifunctionality, and mainstreaming environmental issues across sectors, are generally more successful in mitigating trade-offs than isolated environmental policies. Furthermore, those scenario archetypes that focus on achieving a balanced supply of nature’s contributions to people and that incorporate a diversity of values are estimated to achieve more policy goals and targets, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the Convention on Biological Diversity Aichi targets. The scenario archetypes approach is shown to be helpful in supporting science-policy dialogue for proactive decision making that anticipates change, mitigates undesirable trade-offs, and fosters societal transformation in pursuit of sustainable development

Synthesizing plausible futures for biodiversity and ecosystem services in europe and central asia using scenario archetypes

Scenarios are a useful tool to explore possible futures of social-ecological systems. The number of scenarios has increased dramatically over recent decades, with a large diversity in temporal and spatial scales, purposes, themes, development methods, and content. Scenario archetypes generically describe future developments and can be useful in meaningfully classifying scenarios, structuring and summarizing the overwhelming amount of information, and enabling scientific outputs to more effectively interface with decision-making frameworks. The Intergovernmental Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) faced this challenge and used scenario archetypes in its assessment of future interactions between nature and society. We describe the use of scenario archetypes in the IPBES Regional Assessment of Europe and Central Asia. Six scenario archetypes for the region are described in terms of their driver assumptions and impacts on nature (including biodiversity) and its contributions to people (including ecosystem services): Business-as-usual, economic optimism, regional competition, regional sustainability, global sustainable development, and inequality. The analysis shows that trade-offs between nature’s contributions to people are projected under different scenario archetypes. However, the means of resolving these trade-offs depend on differing political and societal value judgements within each scenario archetype. Scenarios that include proactive decision making on environmental issues, environmental management approaches that support multifunctionality, and mainstreaming environmental issues across sectors, are generally more successful in mitigating tradeoffs than isolated environmental policies. Furthermore, those scenario archetypes that focus on achieving a balanced supply of nature’s contributions to people and that incorporate a diversity of values are estimated to achieve more policy goals and targets, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the Convention on Biological Diversity Aichi targets. The scenario archetypes approach is shown to be helpful in supporting science-policy dialogue for proactive decision making that anticipates change, mitigates undesirable trade-offs, and fosters societal transformation in pursuit of sustainable development. © 2019 by the author(s)

Fire and biodiversity in the Anthropocene

The workshop leading to this paper was funded by the Centre Tecnològic Forestal de Catalunya and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions. L.T.K. was supported by a Victorian Postdoctoral Research Fellowship (Victorian Government), a Centenary Fellowship (University of Melbourne), and an Australian Research Council Linkage Project Grant (LP150100765). A.R. was supported by the Xunta de Galicia (Postdoctoral Fellowship ED481B2016/084-0) and the Foundation for Science and Technology under the FirESmart project (PCIF/MOG/0083/2017). A.L.S. was supported by a Marie Skłodowska-Curie Individual Fellowship (746191) under the European Union Horizon 2020 Programme for Research and Innovation. L.R. was supported by the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program through the Threatened Species Recovery Hub. L.B. was partially supported by the Spanish Government through the INMODES (CGL2014-59742-C2-2-R) and the ERANET-SUMFORESTS project FutureBioEcon (PCIN-2017-052). This research was supported in part by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station.BACKGROUND Fire has shaped the diversity of life on Earth for millions of years. Variation in fire regimes continues to be a source of biodiversity across the globe, and many plants, animals, and ecosystems depend on particular temporal and spatial patterns of fire. Although people have been using fire to modify environments for millennia, the combined effects of human activities are now changing patterns of fire at a global scale—to the detriment of human society, biodiversity, and ecosystems. These changes pose a global challenge for understanding how to sustain biodiversity in a new era of fire. We synthesize how changes in fire activity are threatening species with extinction across the globe, highlight forward-looking methods for predicting the combined effects of human drivers and fire on biodiversity, and foreshadow emerging actions and strategies that could revolutionize how society manages fire for biodiversity in the Anthropocene. ADVANCES Our synthesis shows that interactions with anthropogenic drivers such as global climate change, land use, and biotic invasions are transforming fire activity and its impacts on biodiversity. More than 4400 terrestrial and freshwater species from a wide range of taxa and habitats face threats associated with modified fire regimes. Many species are threatened by an increase in fire frequency or intensity, but exclusion of fire in ecosystems that need it can also be harmful. The prominent role of human activity in shaping global ecosystems is the hallmark of the Anthropocene and sets the context in which models and actions must be developed. Advances in predictive modeling deliver new opportunities to couple fire and biodiversity data and to link them with forecasts of multiple drivers including drought, invasive plants, and urban growth. Making these connections also provides an opportunity for new actions that could revolutionize how society manages fire. Emerging actions include reintroduction of mammals that reduce fuels, green fire breaks comprising low-flammability plants, strategically letting wildfires burn under the right conditions, managed evolution of populations aided by new genomics tools, and deployment of rapid response teams to protect biodiversity assets. Indigenous fire stewardship and reinstatement of cultural burning in a modern context will enhance biodiversity and human well-being in many regions of the world. At the same time, international efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are crucial to reduce the risk of extreme fire events that contribute to declines in biodiversity. OUTLOOK Conservation of Earth’s biological diversity will be achieved only by recognition of and response to the critical role of fire in shaping ecosystems. Global changes in fire regimes will continue to amplify interactions between anthropogenic drivers and create difficult trade-offs between environmental and social objectives. Scientific input will be crucial for navigating major decisions about novel and changing ecosystems. Strategic collection of data on fire, biodiversity, and socioeconomic variables will be essential for developing models to capture the feedbacks, tipping points, and regime shifts characteristic of the Anthropocene. New partnerships are also needed to meet the challenges ahead. At the local and regional scale, getting more of the “right” type of fire in landscapes that need it requires new alliances and networks to build and apply knowledge. At the national and global scale, biodiversity conservation will benefit from greater integration of fire into national biodiversity strategies and action plans and in the implementation of international agreements and initiatives such as the UN Convention on Biological Diversity. Placing the increasingly important role of people at the forefront of efforts to understand and adapt to changes in fire regimes is central to these endeavors.PostprintPeer reviewe