A Bayesian approach to study the space time variation of leprosy in an endemic area of Tamil Nadu, South India

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In leprosy endemic areas, patients are usually spatially clustered and not randomly distributed. Classical statistical techniques fail to address the problem of spatial clustering in the regression model. Bayesian method is one which allows itself to incorporate spatial dependence in the model. However little is explored in the field of leprosy. The Bayesian approach may improve our understanding about the variation of the disease prevalence of leprosy over space and time.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data from an endemic area of leprosy, covering 148 panchayats from two taluks in South India for four time points between January 1991 and March 2003 was used. Four Bayesian models, namely, space-cohort and space-period models with and without interactions were compared using the Deviance Information Criterion. Cohort effect, period effect over four time points and spatial effect (smoothed) were obtained using WinBUGS. The spatial or panchayat effect thus estimated was compared with the raw standardized morbidity (leprosy prevalence) rate (SMR) using a choropleth map. The possible factors that might have influenced the variations of prevalence of leprosy were explored.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Bayesian models with the interaction term were found to be the best fitted model. Leprosy prevalence was higher than average in the older cohorts. The last two cohorts 1987–1996 and 1992–2001 showed a notable decline in leprosy prevalence. Period effect over 4 time points varied from a high of 3.2% to a low of 1.8%. Spatial effect varied between 0.59 and 2. Twenty-six panchayats showed significantly higher prevalence of leprosy than the average when Bayesian method was used and it was 40 panchayats with the raw SMR.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Reduction of prevalence of leprosy was 92% for persons born after 1996, which could be attributed to various intervention and treatment programmes like vaccine trial and MDT. The estimated period effects showed a gradual decline in the risk of leprosy which could be due to better nutrition, hygiene and increased awareness about the disease. Comparison of the maps of the relative risk using the Bayesian smoothing and the raw SMR showed the variation of the geographical distribution of the leprosy prevalence in the study area. Panchayat or spatial effects using Bayesian showed clustersing of leprosy cases towards the northeastern end of the study area which was overcrowded and population belonging to poor economic status.</p

A malaria outbreak in Naxalbari, Darjeeling district, West Bengal, India, 2005: weaknesses in disease control, important risk factors

An outbreak of malaria in Naxalbari, West Bengal, India, in 2005 was investigated to understand determinants and propose control measures. Malaria cases were slide-confirmed. Methods included calculation of annual blood examination rates (ABER, number of slides examined/population), collection of water specimens from potential vector-breeding sites, sorting of villages in categories depending on the number of abandoned wells within two kilometers radius and review of the DDT spray coverage. Cases were compared with matched neighbourhood controls in terms of personal protection using matched odds ratios (MOR). 7,303 cases and 17 deaths were reported between April 2005 and March 2006 with a peak during October rains (Attack rate: 50 per 1,000, case fatality: 0.2%). The attack rate increased according to the number of abandoned wells within 2 kilometres radius (P < 0.0001, Chi-square for trend). Abandoned wells were Anopheles breeding sites. Compared with controls, cases were more likely to sleep outdoors (MOR: 3.8) and less likely to use of mosquito nets and repellents (MOR: 0.3 and 0.1, respectively). DDT spray coverage and ABER were 39% and 3.5%, below the recommended 85% and 10%, respectively. Overall, this outbreak resulted from weaknesses in malaria control measures and a combination of factors, including vector breeding, low implementation of personal protection and weak case detection

Persistence of Diphtheria, Hyderabad, India, 2003–2006

During 2003–2006, diphtheria rates in Hyderabad, India, were higher among persons 5–19 years of age, women, and Muslims than among other groups. Vaccine was efficacious among those who received >4 doses. The proportion of the population receiving boosters was low, especially among Muslims. We recommend increasing booster dose coverage

Surgical experience and identification of errors in laparoscopic cholecystectomy.

BACKGROUND: Surgical errors are acts or omissions resulting in negative consequences and/or increased operating time. This study describes surgeon-reported errors in laparoscopic cholecystectomy. METHODS: Intraoperative videos were uploaded and annotated on Touch SurgeryTM Enterprise. Participants evaluated videos for severity using a 10-point intraoperative cholecystitis grading score, and errors using Observational Clinical Human Reliability Assessment, which includes skill, consequence, and mechanism classifications. RESULTS: Nine videos were assessed by 8 participants (3 junior (specialist trainee (ST) 3-5), 2 senior trainees (ST6-8), and 3 consultants). Participants identified 550 errors. Positive relationships were seen between total operating time and error count (r2 = 0.284, P < 0.001), intraoperative grade score and error count (r2 = 0.578, P = 0.001), and intraoperative grade score and total operating time (r2 = 0.157, P < 0.001). Error counts differed significantly across intraoperative phases (H(6) = 47.06, P < 0.001), most frequently at dissection of the hepatocystic triangle (total 282; median 33.5 (i.q.r. 23.5-47.8, range 15-63)), ligation/division of cystic structures (total 124; median 13.5 (i.q.r. 12-19.3, range 10-26)), and gallbladder dissection (total 117; median 14.5 (i.q.r. 10.3-18.8, range 6-26)). There were no significant differences in error counts between juniors, seniors, and consultants (H(2) = 0.03, P = 0.987). Errors were classified differently. For dissection of the hepatocystic triangle, thermal injuries (50 in total) were frequently classified as executional, consequential errors; trainees classified thermal injuries as step done with excessive force, speed, depth, distance, time or rotation (29 out of 50), whereas consultants classified them as incorrect orientation (6 out of 50). For ligation/division of cystic structures, inappropriate clipping (60 errors in total), procedural errors were reported by junior trainees (6 out of 60), but not consultants. For gallbladder dissection, inappropriate dissection (20 errors in total) was reported in incorrect planes by consultants and seniors (6 out of 20), but not by juniors. Poor economy of movement (11 errors in total) was reported more by consultants (8 out of 11) than trainees (3 out of 11). CONCLUSION: This study suggests that surgical experience influences error interpretation, but the benefits for surgical training are currently unclear

Chikungunya Outbreak, South India, 2006

We investigated chikungunya outbreaks in South India and observed a high attack rate, particularly among adults and women. Transmission was facilitated by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes in peridomestic water containers, as indicated by a high Breteau index. We recommended vector control measures and health education to promote safe water storage practices

Measles transmission following the tsunami in a population with a high one-dose vaccination coverage, Tamil Nadu, India 2004–2005

BACKGROUND: On 26 December 2004, a tsunami struck the coast of the state of Tamil Nadu, India, where one-dose measles coverage exceeded 95%. On 29 December, supplemental measles immunization activities targeted children 6 to 60 months of age in affected villages. On 30 December, Cuddalore, a tsunami-affected district in Tamil Nadu reported a cluster of measles cases. We investigated this cluster to estimate the magnitude of the problem and to propose recommendations for control. METHODS: We received notification of WHO-defined measles cases through stimulated passive surveillance. We collected information regarding date of onset, age, sex, vaccination status and residence. We collected samples for IgM antibodies and genotype studies. We modeled the accumulation of susceptible individuals over the time on the basis of vaccination coverage, vaccine efficacy and birth rate. RESULTS: We identified 101 measles cases and detected IgM antibodies against measles virus in eight of 11 sera. Cases were reported from tsunami-affected (n = 71) and unaffected villages (n = 30) with attack rates of 1.3 and 1.7 per 1000, respectively. 42% of cases in tsunami-affected villages had an onset date within 14 days of the tsunami. The median ages of case-patients in tsunami-affected and un-affected areas were 54 months and 60 months respectively (p = 0.471). 36% of cases from tsunami-affected areas were above 60 months of age. Phylogenetic analyses indicated that the sequences of virus belonged to genotype D8 that circulated in Tamil Nadu. CONCLUSION: Measles virus circulated in Cuddalore district following the tsunami, although there was no association between the two events. Transmission despite high one-dose vaccination coverage pointed to the limitations of this vaccination strategy. A second opportunity for measles immunization may help reducing measles mortality and morbidity in such areas. Children from 6 month to 14 years of age must be targeted for supplemental immunization during complex emergencies

Nations within a nation: variations in epidemiological transition across the states of India, 1990–2016 in the Global Burden of Disease Study

18% of the world's population lives in India, and many states of India have populations similar to those of large countries. Action to effectively improve population health in India requires availability of reliable and comprehensive state-level estimates of disease burden and risk factors over time. Such comprehensive estimates have not been available so far for all major diseases and risk factors. Thus, we aimed to estimate the disease burden and risk factors in every state of India as part of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2016

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Abstract Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries

Prevalence of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder in a Coastal Fishing Village in Tamil Nadu, India, After the December 2004 Tsunami

Two months after the December 2004 tsunami in Tamil Nadu, India, we surveyed adults aged 18 years or older in a severely affected coastal village using structured interviews and the Harvard Trauma Questionnaire. The prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder was 12.7% (95% confidence interval [CI]=9.4%, 17.1%), and odds of posttraumatic stress disorder were higher among individuals with no household incomes, women, and those injured during the tsunami. In addition to promoting feelings of safety, interventions aimed toward populations affected by the December 2004 tsunami need to focus on income-generating activities. Also, there is a need to target initiatives toward women and those individuals injured during the tsunami, given that these groups are more likely to experience posttraumatic stress disorder