Real-time inflation forecast densities from ensemble phillips curves

A popular macroeconomic forecasting strategy takes combinations across many models to hedge against model instabilities of unknown timing; see (among others) Stock andWatson (2004) and Clark and McCracken (2009). In this paper, we examine the effectiveness of recursive-weight and equal-weight combination strategies for density forecasting using a time-varying Phillips curve relationship between inflation and the output gap. The densities reflect the uncertainty across a large number of models using many statistical measures of the output gap, allowing for a single structural break of unknown timing. We use real-time data for the US, Australia, New Zealand and Norway. Our main finding is that the recursive-weight strategy performs well across the real-time data sets, consistently giving well-calibrated forecast densities. The equal-weight strategy generates poorly-calibrated forecast densities for the US and Australian samples. There is little difference between the two strategies for our New Zealand and Norwegian data. We also find that the ensemble modeling approach performs more consistently with real-time data than with revised data in all four countries

Cross Section Measurements of Charged Pion Photoproduction in Hydrogen and Deuterium from 1.1 to 5.5 GeV

The differential cross section for the gamma +n --> pi- + p and the gamma + p --> pi+ n processes were measured at Jefferson Lab. The photon energies ranged from 1.1 to 5.5 GeV, corresponding to center-of-mass energies from 1.7 to 3.4 GeV. The pion center-of-mass angles varied from 50 degree to 110 degree. The pi- and pi+ photoproduction data both exhibit a global scaling behavior at high energies and high transverse momenta, consistent with the constituent counting rule prediction and the existing pi+ data. The data suggest possible substructure of the scaling behavior, which might be oscillations around the scaling value. The data show an enhancement in the scaled cross section at center-of-mass energy near 2.2 GeV. The differential cross section ratios at high energies and high transverse momenta can be described by calculations based on one-hard-gluon-exchange diagrams.Comment: 18 pages, 19 figure

Ventricular volume expansion in presymptomatic genetic frontotemporal dementia

Objective: To characterize the time course of ventricular volume expansion in genetic frontotemporal dementia (FTD) and identify the onset time and rates of ventricular expansion in presymptomatic FTD mutation carriers. Methods: Participants included patients with a mutation in MAPT, PGRN, or C9orf72, or first-degree relatives of mutation carriers from the GENFI study with MRI scans at study baseline and at 1 year follow-up. Ventricular volumes were obtained from MRI scans using FreeSurfer, with manual editing of segmentation and comparison to fully automated segmentation to establish reliability. Linear mixed models were used to identify differences in ventricular volume and in expansion rates as a function of time to expected disease onset between presymptomatic carriers and noncarriers. Results: A total of 123 participants met the inclusion criteria and were included in the analysis (18 symptomatic carriers, 46 presymptomatic mutation carriers, and 56 noncarriers). Ventricular volume differences were observed 4 years prior to symptom disease onset for presymptomatic carriers compared to noncarriers. Annualized rates of ventricular volume expansion were greater in presymptomatic carriers relative to noncarriers. Importantly, time-intensive manually edited and fully automated ventricular volume resulted in similar findings. Conclusions: Ventricular volume differences are detectable in presymptomatic genetic FTD. Concordance of results from time-intensive manual editing and fully automatic segmentation approaches support its value as a measure of disease onset and progression in future studies in both presymptomatic and symptomatic genetic FTD

Climate change threatens European conservation areas

Europe has the world's most extensive network of conservation areas. Conservation areas are selected without taking into account the effects of climate change. How effectively would such areas conserve biodiversity under climate change? We assess the effectiveness of protected areas and the Natura 2000 network in conserving a large proportion of European plant and terrestrial vertebrate species under climate change. We found that by 2080, 58 ± 2.6% of the species would lose suitable climate in protected areas, whereas losses affected 63 ± 2.1% of the species of European concern occurring in Natura 2000 areas. Protected areas are expected to retain climatic suitability for species better than unprotected areas (P<0.001), but Natura 2000 areas retain climate suitability for species no better and sometimes less effectively than unprotected areas. The risk is high that ongoing efforts to conserve Europe's biodiversity are jeopardized by climate change. New policies are required to avert this risk

I will not go, I cannot go: cultural and social limitations of disaster preparedness in Asia, Africa, and Oceania

While much work has been invested in addressing the economic and technical basis of disaster preparedness, less effort has been directed towards understanding the cultural and social obstacles to and opportunities for disaster risk reduction. This paper presents local insights from five different national settings into the cultural and social contexts of disaster preparedness. In most cases, an early warning system was in place, but it failed to alert people to diverse environmental shocks. The research findings show that despite geographical and typological differences in these locations, the limitations of the systems were fairly similar. In Kenya, people received warnings, but from contradictory systems, whereas in the Philippines and on the island of Saipan, people did not understand the messages or take them seriously. In Bangladesh and Nepal, however, a deeper cultural and religious reasoning serves to explain disasters, and how to prevent them or find safety when they strike

The APOE E4 allele is associated with faster rates of neuroretinal thinning in a prospective cohort study of suspect and early glaucoma

Purpose: To investigate the association between the apolipoprotein E (APOE) E4 dementia-risk allele and prospective longitudinal retinal thinning in a cohort study of suspect and early manifest glaucoma. Design: Retrospective analysis of prospective cohort data. Participants: This study included all available eyes from participants recruited to the Progression Risk of Glaucoma: Relevant SNPs [single nucleotide polymorphisms] with Significant Association (PROGRESSA) study with genotyping data from which APOE genotypes could be determined. Methods: Apolipoprotein E alleles and genotypes were determined in PROGRESSA, and their distributions were compared with an age-matched and ancestrally matched normative cohort, the Blue Mountains Eye Study. Structural parameters of neuroretinal atrophy measured using spectral-domain OCT were compared within the PROGRESSA cohort on the basis of APOE E4 allele status. Main Outcome Measures: Longitudinal rates of thinning in the macular ganglion celleinner plexiform layer (mGCIPL) complex and the peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer (pRNFL). Results: Rates of mGCIPL complex thinning were faster in participants harboring ≥1 copies of the APOE E4 allele (b ¼ e0.13 mm/year; P ≤0.001). This finding was strongest in eyes affected by normal-tension glaucoma (NTG; b ¼ e0.20 mm/year; P ¼ 0.003). Apolipoprotein E E4 allele carriers were also more likely to be lost to followup (P ¼ 0.01) and to demonstrate a thinner average mGCIPL complex (70.9 mm vs. 71.9 mm; P ¼ 0.011) and pRNFL (77.6 mm vs. 79.2 mm; P ¼ 0.045) after a minimum of 3 years of monitoring. Conclusions: The APOE E4 allele was associated with faster rates of mCGIPL complex thinning, particularly in eyes with NTG. These results suggest that the APOE E4 allele may be a risk factor for retinal ganglion cell degeneration in glaucoma.Sean Mullany, Henry Marshall, Santiago Diaz-Torres, Ella C. Berry, Joshua M. Schmidt, Daniel Thomson, Ayub Qassim, Minh-Son To, David Dimasi, Abraham Kuot, Lachlan S.W. Knight, Georgina Hollitt, Antonia Kolovos, Angela Schulz, Stewart Lake, Richard A. Mills, Ashish Agar, Anna Galanopoulos, John Landers, Paul Mitchell, Paul R. Healey, Stuart L. Graham, Alex W. Hewitt, Emmanuelle Souzeau, Mark M. Hassall, Sonja Klebe, Stuart MacGregor, Puya Gharahkhani, Robert J. Casson, Owen M. Siggs, Jamie E. Crai

Physical activity but not sedentary activity is reduced in primary Sjögren’s syndrome

The aim of the study was to evaluate the levels of physical activity in individuals with primary Sjögren’s syndrome (PSS) and its relationship to the clinical features of PSS. To this cross-sectional study, self-reported levels of physical activity from 273 PSS patients were measured using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire-short form (IPAQ-SF) and were compared with healthy controls matched for age, sex and body mass index. Fatigue and other clinical aspects of PSS including disease status, dryness, daytime sleepiness, dysautonomia, anxiety and depression were assessed using validated tools. Individuals with PSS had significantly reduced levels of physical activity [median (interquartile range, IQR) 1572 (594–3158) versus 3708 (1732–8255) metabolic equivalent of task (MET) × min/week, p < 0.001], but similar levels of sedentary activity [median (IQR) min 300 (135–375) versus 343 (223–433) (MET) × min/week, p = 0.532] compared to healthy individuals. Differences in physical activity between PSS and controls increased at moderate [median (IQR) 0 (0–480) versus 1560 (570–3900) MET × min/week, p < 0.001] and vigorous intensities [median (IQR) 0 (0–480) versus 480 (0–1920) MET × min/week, p < 0.001]. Correlation analysis revealed a significant association between physical activity and fatigue, orthostatic intolerance, depressive symptoms and quality of life. Sedentary activity did not correlate with fatigue. Stepwise linear regression analysis identified symptoms of depression and daytime sleepiness as independent predictors of levels of physical activity. Physical activity is reduced in people with PSS and is associated with symptoms of depression and daytime sleepiness. Sedentary activity is not increased in PSS. Clinical care teams should explore the clinical utility of targeting low levels of physical activity in PSS