Bears in Human-Modified Landscapes: The Case Studies of the Cantabrian, Apennine, and Pindos Mountains

Edited by Vincenzo Penteriani and Mario Melletti.-- Part III - Human–Bear Coexistence.-- This material has been published in "Bears of the World. Ecology, Conservation and Management" by / edited by Vincenzo Penteriani and Mario Melletti / Cambridge University Press. This version is free to view and download for personal use only. Not for re-distribution, re-sale or use in derivative works.Brown bears Ursus arctos were historically persecuted and almost eradicated from southern Europe in the twentieth century as a result of hunting and direct persecution. The effects of human-induced mortality were exacerbated by other threats, such as habitat loss and fragmentation, due to the expansion of human populations. As a result, nowadays there are only small fragmented populations of bears in southern Europe. Brown bears in the Cantabrian (north-western Spain), Apennine (central Italy), and Pindos (north-western Greece) mountains represent three examples of small and threatened bear populations in human-modified landscapes. Most of their range is characterized by high human densities, widespread agricultural activities, livestock raising and urban development, connected by dense networks of transport infrastructures. This has resulted in a reduction of continuous habitat suitable for the species. Here, we summarize the past and present histories and fates of these three populations as examples on how the coexistence of bears and people in human-modified landscapes can take different turns depending on human attitudes

Multisource noninvasive genetics of brown bears (Ursus arctos) in Greece reveals a highly structured population and a new matrilineal contact zone in southern Europe

In human‐dominated landscapes, connectivity is crucial for maintaining demographically stable mammalian populations. Here, we provide a comprehensive noninvasive genetic study for the brown bear population in the Hellenic Peninsula. We analyze its population structuring and connectivity, estimate its population size throughout its distribution, and describe its phylogeography in detail for the first time. Our results, based on 150 multilocus genotypes and on 244‐bp sequences of the mtDNA control region, show the population is comprised by three highly differentiated genetic clusters, consistent with geographical populations of Pindos, Peristeri, and Rhodope. By detecting two male bears with Rhodopean ancestry in the western demes, we provide strong evidence for the ongoing genetic connectivity of the geographically fragmented eastern and western distributions, which suggests connectivity of the larger East Balkan and Pindos‐Dinara populations. Total effective population size (Ne) was estimated to be 199 individuals, and total combined population size (NC) was 499, with each cluster showing a relatively high level of genetic variability, suggesting that migration has been sufficient to counteract genetic erosion. The mtNDA results were congruent with the microsatellite data, and the three genetic clusters were matched predominantly with an equal number of mtDNA haplotypes that belong to the brown bear Western mitochondrial lineage (Clade 1), with two haplotypes being globally new and endemic. The detection of a fourth haplotype that belongs to the Eastern lineage (Clade 3a1) in three bears from the western distribution places the southernmost secondary contact zone between the Eastern and Western lineages in Greece and generates new hypotheses about postglacial maxima migration routes. This work indicates that the genetic composition and diversity of Europe's low‐latitude fringe population are the outcome of ancient and historical events and highlight its importance for the connectivity and long‐term persistence of the species in the Balkans

Large carnivore expansion in Europe is associated with human population density and land cover changes

Aim: The recent recovery of large carnivores in Europe has been explained as resulting from a decrease in human persecution driven by widespread rural land abandonment, paralleled by forest cover increase and the consequent increase in availability of shelter and prey. We investigated whether land cover and human population density changes are related to the relative probability of occurrence of three European large carnivores: the grey wolf (Canis lupus), the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) and the brown bear (Ursus arctos). Location: Europe, west of 64° longitude. Methods: We fitted multi-temporal species distribution models using >50,000 occurrence points with time series of land cover, landscape configuration, protected areas, hunting regulations and human population density covering a 24-year period (1992–2015). Within the temporal window considered, we then predicted changes in habitat suitability for large carnivores throughout Europe. Results: Between 1992 and 2015, the habitat suitability for the three species increased in Eastern Europe, the Balkans, North-West Iberian Peninsula and Northern Scandinavia, but showed mixed trends in Western and Southern Europe. These trends were primarily associated with increases in forest cover and decreases in human population density, and, additionally, with decreases in the cover of mosaics of cropland and natural vegetation. Main conclusions: Recent land cover and human population changes appear to have altered the habitat suitability pattern for large carnivores in Europe, whereas protection level did not play a role. While projected changes largely match the observed recovery of large carnivore populations, we found mismatches with the recent expansion of wolves in Central and Southern Europe, where factors not included in our models may have played a dominant role. This suggests that large carnivores’ co-existence with humans in European landscapes is not limited by habitat availability, but other factors such as favourable human tolerance and policy

Brown bear attacks on humans : a worldwide perspective

The increasing trend of large carnivore attacks on humans not only raises human safety concerns but may also undermine large carnivore conservation efforts. Although rare, attacks by brown bears Ursus arctos are also on the rise and, although several studies have addressed this issue at local scales, information is lacking on a worldwide scale. Here, we investigated brown bear attacks (n = 664) on humans between 2000 and 2015 across most of the range inhabited by the species: North America (n = 183), Europe (n = 291), and East (n = 190). When the attacks occurred, half of the people were engaged in leisure activities and the main scenario was an encounter with a female with cubs. Attacks have increased significantly over time and were more frequent at high bear and low human population densities. There was no significant difference in the number of attacks between continents or between countries with different hunting practices. Understanding global patterns of bear attacks can help reduce dangerous encounters and, consequently, is crucial for informing wildlife managers and the public about appropriate measures to reduce this kind of conflicts in bear country.Peer reviewe

Energy_diversity_green_bonds

Data and code for manuscrip

Integrity of financial information and firms’ access to energy in developing countries - code

Enterprise surveys - Stata cod

Energy_diversity_green_bonds

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A data-driven approach to measuring epidemiological susceptibility risk around the world

Epidemic outbreaks are extreme events that become more frequent and severe, associated with large social and real costs. It is therefore important to assess whether countries are prepared to manage epidemiological risks. We use a fully data-driven approach to measure epidemiological susceptibility risk at the country level using time-varying information. We apply both principal component analysis (PCA) and dynamic factor model (DFM) to deal with the presence of strong cross-section dependence in the data. We conduct extensive in-sample model evaluations of 168 countries covering 17 indicators for the 2010–2019 period. The results show that the robust PCA method accounts for about 90% of total variability, whilst the DFM accounts for about 76% of the total variability. Our index could therefore provide the basis for developing risk assessments of epidemiological risk contagion. It could be also used by organizations to assess likely real consequences of epidemics with useful managerial implications