Future demand: How could or should our transport system evolve in order to support mobility in the future?

New Zealand’s land transport programme has a current expenditure target for the next ten years of $38.7bn including$10bn to change the shape of the road network and improve its quality and capacity. Yet such investment plans are in the face of a country, like several others, that has experienced a decade-long interruption to a long-run trend of growth in car travel.The NZ Ministry of Transport in 2014 undertook a major piece of strategic work to address the following focal question. How could or should our transport system evolve in order to support mobility in the future? The work involved a number of elements but centred upon a scenario planning exercise. This involved a wide cross-section of expertise and stakeholders in the identification of key drivers of change and critical uncertainties for the future for a time horizon of 2042. Two key unknowns were explored: (i) what will society want to do in future? (uncertainty about whether people will be more inclined to connect physically or virtually); and what will society be able to afford to do? (uncertainty about the affordability of energy relative to other costs of living). Four plausible and divergent scenarios were developed for future transport and society in New Zealand. Alongside the narratives for these different worlds, a simple structural model was developed to estimate quantification of levels of car travel in 2042 for the different scenarios. This revealed that from 2014 to 2042, total car travel could range from a growth of 35% to a decline of 53%.The subsequent examination of the focal question above led to a series of insights and recommended responses for policymakers and other decision makers to consider. Three important principles emerged from the work:(1)It is access not mobility per se that is key to a thriving New Zealand. There are uncertainties over what make-up of access will be desirable and affordable in future.(2)There is a need to ensure a resilient provision of access options that provides for adaptability of behaviour over time. This means a combined and coordinated effort to evolve and improve roading and proximity and digital communications.(3)The transport system’s nature and scale partly determine the demand placed upon it. Therefore when evolving the transport system one should have in mind providing for demand believed to be appropriate (and feasible) rather than providing for the demand that it may be tempting to predict

Assessing debris flows using LIDAR differencing: 18 May 2005 Matata event, New Zealand

The town of Matata in the Eastern Bay of Plenty (New Zealand) experienced an extreme rainfall event on the 18 May 2005. This event triggered widespread landslips and large debris flows in the Awatarariki and Waitepuru catchments behind Matata. The Light Detection and Ranging technology (LIDAR) data sets flown prior to and following this event have been differenced and used in conjunction with a detailed field study to identify the distribution of debris and major sediment pathways which, from the Awatarariki catchment, transported at least 350,000 ± 50,000 m3 of debris. Debris flows were initially confined to stream valleys and controlled by the density and hydraulic thrust of the currents, before emerging onto the Awatarariki debris fan where a complex system of unconfined sediment pathways developed. Here, large boulders, clasts, logs and entire homes were deposited as the flows decelerated. Downstream from the debris fan, the pre-existing coastal foredune topography played a significant role in deflecting the more dilute currents that in filled lagoonal swale systems in both directions. The differenced LIDAR data have revealed several sectors characterised by significant variation in clast size, thickness and volume of debris as well as areas where post-debris flow cleanup and grading operations have resulted in man-made levees, sediment dumps, scoured channels and substantial graded areas. The application of differenced LIDAR data to a debris flow event demonstrates the techniques potential as a precise and powerful tool for hazard mapping and assessment

Abundances in intermediate-mass AGB stars undergoing third dredge-up and hot-bottom burning

High dispersion near-infrared spectra have been taken of seven highly-evolved, variable, intermediate-mass (4-6 Msun) AGB stars in the LMC and SMC in order to look for C, N and O variations that are expected to arise from third dredge-up and hot-bottom burning. The pulsation of the objects has been modelled, yielding stellar masses, and spectral synthesis calculations have been performed in order to derive abundances from the observed spectra. For two stars, abundances of C, N, O, Na, Al, Ti, Sc and Fe were derived and compared with the abundances predicted by detailed AGB models. Both stars show very large N enhancements and C deficiencies. These results provide the first observational confirmation of the long-predicted production of primary nitrogen by the combination of third dredge-up and hot-bottom burning in intermediate-mass AGB stars. It was not possible to derive abundances for the remaining five stars: three were too cool to model, while another two had strong shocks in their atmospheres which caused strong emission to fill the line cores and made abundance determination impossible. The latter occurrence allows us to predict the pulsation phase interval during which observations should be made if successful abundance analysis is to be possible.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRA

Abundance analysis for long period variables. Velocity effects studied with O-rich dynamic model atmospheres

(abbreviated) Measuring the surface abundances of AGB stars is an important tool for studying the effects of nucleosynthesis and mixing in the interior of low- to intermediate mass stars during their final evolutionary phases. The atmospheres of AGB stars can be strongly affected by stellar pulsation and the development of a stellar wind, though, and the abundance determination of these objects should therefore be based on dynamic model atmospheres. We investigate the effects of stellar pulsation and mass loss on the appearance of selected spectral features (line profiles, line intensities) and on the derived elemental abundances by performing a systematic comparison of hydrostatic and dynamic model atmospheres. High-resolution synthetic spectra in the near infrared range were calculated based on two dynamic model atmospheres (at various phases during the pulsation cycle) as well as a grid of hydrostatic COMARCS models. Equivalent widths of a selection of atomic and molecular lines were derived in both cases and compared with each other. In the case of the dynamic models, the equivalent widths of all investigated features vary over the pulsation cycle. A consistent reproduction of the derived variations with a set of hydrostatic models is not possible, but several individual phases and spectral features can be reproduced well with the help of specific hydrostatic atmospheric models. In addition, we show that the variations in equivalent width that we found on the basis of the adopted dynamic model atmospheres agree qualitatively with observational results for the Mira R Cas over its light cycle. The findings of our modelling form a starting point to deal with the problem of abundance determination in strongly dynamic AGB stars (i.e., long-period variables).Comment: 13 pages, 22 figures, accepted for publication in A&

Prospects of Stellar Abundance Studies from Near-IR Spectra Observed with the E-ELT

In 2006 ESO Council authorized a Phase B study of a European AO-telescope with a 42 m segmented primary with a 5-mirror design, the E-ELT. Several reports and working groups have already presented science cases for an E-ELT, specifically exploiting the new capabilities of such a large telescope. One of the aims of the design has been to find a balance in the performances between an E-ELT and the James Webb Space Telescope, JWST. Apart from the larger photon-collecting area, the strengths of the former is the higher attainable spatial and spectral resolutions. The E-ELT AO system will have an optimal performance in the near-IR, which makes it specially advantageous. High-resolution spectroscopy in the near-infrared has, however, not been discussed much. This paper aims at filling that gap, by specifically discussing spectroscopy of stellar (mainly red giant), photospheric abundances. Based on studies in the literature of stellar abundances, at the needed medium to high spectral resolutions in the near-infrared (0.8-2.4 microns), I will try to extrapolate published results to the performance of the E-ELT and explore what could be done at the E-ELT in this field. A discussion on what instrument characteristics that would be needed for stellar abundance analyses in the near-IR will be given.Comment: Accepted for publication in Astronomische Nachrichten, A

Low-temperature gas opacity - AESOPUS: a versatile and quick computational tool

We introduce a new tool - AESOPUS: Accurate Equation of State and OPacity Utility Software - for computing the equation of state and the Rosseland mean (RM) opacities of matter in the ideal gas phase. Results are given as a function of one pair of state variables, (i.e. temperature T in the range 3.2 <= log(T) <= 4.5, and parameter R= rho/(T/10^6 K)^3 in the range -8 <= log(R) <= 1), and arbitrary chemical mixture. The chemistry is presently solved for about 800 species, consisting of almost 300 atomic and 500 molecular species. The gas opacities account for many continuum and discrete sources, including atomic opacities, molecular absorption bands, and collision-induced absorption. Several tests made on AESOPUS have proved that the new opacity tool is accurate in the results,flexible in the management of the input prescriptions, and agile in terms of computational time requirement. We set up a web-interface (http://stev.oapd.inaf.it/aesopus) which enables the user to compute and shortly retrieve RM opacity tables according to his/her specific needs, allowing a full degree of freedom in specifying the chemical composition of the gas. Useful applications may regard RM opacities of gas mixtures with i) scaled-solar abundances of metals, choosing among various solar mixture compilations available in the literature; ii) varying CNO abundances, suitable for evolutionary models of red and asymptotic giant branch stars and massive stars in the Wolf-Rayet stages; iii) various degrees of enhancement in alpha-elements, and C-N, Na-O and Mg-Al abundance anti-correlations, necessary to properly describe the properties of stars in early-type galaxies and Galactic globular clusters; iv) zero-metal abundances appropriate for studies of gas opacity in primordial conditions.Comment: 32 pages, 34 postscript figures, A&A in press; new section 4.1.2 showing first tests with stellar models, sections 2.2, 2.2.2 and 5 expanded; interactive web-page at http://stev.oapd.inaf.it/aesopu

The evolutionary state of Miras with changing pulsation periods

Context: Miras are long-period variables thought to be in the asymptotic giant branch (AGB) phase of evolution. In about one percent of known Miras, the pulsation period is changing. It has been speculated that this changing period is the consequence of a recent thermal pulse in these stars. Aims: We aim to clarify the evolutionary state of these stars, and to determine in particular whether or not they are in the thermally-pulsing (TP-)AGB phase. Methods: One important piece of information that has been neglected so far when determining the evolutionary state is the presence of the radio-active s-process element technetium (Tc). We obtained high-resolution, high signal-to-noise-ratio optical spectra of a dozen prominent Mira variables with changing pulsation period to search for this indicator of TPs and dredge-up. We also use the spectra to measure lithium (Li) abundances. Furthermore, we establish the evolutionary states of our sample stars by means of their present-day periods and luminosities. Results: Among the twelve sample stars observed in this programme, five were found to show absorption lines of Tc. BH Cru is found to be a carbon-star, its period increase in the past decades possibly having stopped by now. We report a possible switch in the pulsation mode of T UMi from Mira-like to semi-regular variability in the past two years. R Nor, on the other hand, is probably a fairly massive AGB star, which could be true for all meandering Miras. Finally, we assign RU Vul to the metal-poor thick disk with properties very similar to the short-period, metal-poor Miras. Conclusions: We conclude that there is no clear correlation between period change class and Tc presence. The stars that are most likely to have experienced a recent TP are BH Cru and R Hya, although their rates of period change are quite different.Comment: 11 pages, 7 figures, 2 tables; accepted for publication in A&

The puzzling dredge-up pattern in NGC 1978

Low-mass stars are element factories that efficiently release their products in the final stages of their evolution by means of stellar winds. Since they are large in number, they contribute significantly to the cosmic matter cycle. To assess this contribution quantitatively, it is crucial to obtain a detailed picture of the stellar interior, particularly with regard to nucleosynthesis and mixing mechanisms. We seek to benchmark stellar evolutionary models of low-mass stars. In particular, we measure the surface abundance of ^{12}C in thermally pulsing AGB stars with well-known mass and metallicity, which can be used to infer information about the onset and efficiency of the third dredge-up. We recorded high-resolution near-infrared spectra of AGB stars in the LMC cluster NGC 1978. The sample comprised both oxygen-rich and carbon-rich stars, and is well-constrained in terms of the stellar mass, metallicity, and age. We derived the C/O and ^{12}C/^{13}C ratio from the target spectra by a comparison to synthetic spectra. Then, we compared the outcomes of stellar evolutionary models with our measurements. The M stars in NGC 1978 show values of C/O and ^{12}C/^{13}C that can best be explained with moderate extra-mixing on the RGB coupled to a moderate oxygen enhancement in the chemical composition. These oxygen-rich stars do not seem to have undergone third dredge-up episodes (yet). The C stars show carbon-to-oxygen and carbon isotopic ratios consistent with the occurrence of the third dredge-up. We did not find S stars in this cluster. None of the theoretical schemes that we considered was able to reproduce the observations appropriately. Instead, we discuss some non-standard scenarios to explain the puzzling abundance pattern in NGC 1978.Comment: 16 pages, 9 figures, 4 tables, accepted for publication in A&A, language revise