Etude du décrochement d'une flamme laminaire sous l'effet d'un champ magnétique

Dans cette étude numérique, on s’intéresse particulièrement à l’étude des mécanismes qui peuvent être induits par un gradient de champ magnétique sur une flamme laminaire de diffusion décrochée.  Cette flamme de méthane-air est issue d’un brûleur de jets coaxiaux. Les résultats obtenus montrent que le gradient de champ magnétique réduit l’intensité du gradient de fraction massique du carburant, modifiant ainsi la vitesse de propagation de la flamme

Etude d'une flamme de diffusion laminaire méthane/air enrichei en oxygène

L'effet de l'ajout d'oxygène dans le comburant d'une flamme laminaire méthane/air est étudié. Le volume d'O2 obtenu varie entre 21% (air) et 30%. Les résultats concernent les hauteurs de décrochage de flamme en fonction des vitesses initiales de CH4, d'air et des % d'O2. Des diagrammes de stabilité montrant les états de la flamme et les transitions entre ces états sont construits. La réduction du décrochage constatée lors de l'ajout d'O2 est expliquée par l'augmentation de la vitesse laminaire de flamme et de l'augmentation du dégagement de chaleur du à une température de flamme plus élevée

The management of menopause in women with a history of endometriosis: a systematic review

BACKGROUND Endometriosis is typically regarded as a premenopausal disease, resolving after natural or iatrogenic menopause due to declining oestrogen levels. Nonetheless, case reports over the years have highlighted the incidence of recurrent postmenopausal endometriosis. It is now clear that both recurrence and malignant transformation of endometriotic foci can occur in the postmenopausal period. Postmenopausal women are commonly treated with hormone replacement therapy (HRT) to treat climacteric symptoms and prevent bone loss; however, HRT may reactivate endometriosis and stimulate malignant transformation in women with a history of endometriosis. Given the uncertain risks of initiating HRT, it is difficult to determine the best menopausal management for this group of women. OBJECTIVE AND RATIONAL The aim of this study was to systematically review the existing literature on management of menopausal symptoms in women with a history of endometriosis. We also aimed to evaluate the published literature on the risks associated with HRT in these women, and details regarding optimal formulations and timing (i.e. initiation and duration) of HRT. SEARCH METHODS Four electronic databases (MEDLINE via OVID, Embase via OVID, PsycINFO via OVID and CINAHL via EbscoHost) were searched from database inception until June 2016, using a combination of relevant controlled vocabulary terms and free-text terms related to ‘menopause’ and ‘endometriosis’. Inclusion criteria were: menopausal women with a history of endometriosis and menopausal treatment including HRT or other preparations. Case reports/series, observational studies and clinical trials were included. Narrative review articles, organizational guidelines and conference abstracts were excluded, as were studies that did not report on any form of menopausal management. Articles were assessed for risk of bias and quality using GRADE criteria. OUTCOMES We present a synthesis of the existing case reports of endometriosis recurrence or malignant transformation in women undergoing treatment for menopausal symptoms. We highlight common presenting symptoms, potential risk factors and outcomes amongst the studies. Sparse high-quality evidence was identified, with few observational studies and only two randomized controlled trials. Given this paucity of data, no definitive conclusions can be drawn concerning risk. WIDER IMPLICATIONS Due to the lack of high-quality studies, it remains unclear how to advise women with a history of endometriosis regarding the management of menopausal symptoms. The absolute risk of disease recurrence and malignant transformation cannot be quantified, and the impact of HRT use on these outcomes is not known. Multicentre randomized trials or large observational studies are urgently needed to inform clinicians and patients alike

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Accurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. Methods To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. Findings During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. Interpretation Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Etude des effets magnétiques et des effets de l'enrichissement en oxygène sur la combustion d'une flamme de diffusion laminaire CH4-Air : optimisation de l'efficacité énergétique

Studying and understanding the behavior of diffusion flames becomes of great importance becauseof their presence in different industrial applications. In this study, the laminar diffusion flame isissued from a circular jet of methane and a coaxial jet of air. Two ways are proposed to influencethis flame: the application of a non-homogeneous magnetic field and enrichment of air with oxygen.The effect of these two factors is studied on the flame characteristics (lift-off height and flamelength), its behavior, stability and the instabilities of the upstream flow, the flame base and theflame top (flickering). The effect of the magnetic field depends on the sign of its gradient, and it'sdue to the generation of a magnetic force and the influence on the convection motion. Enrichmentof air with oxygen is having a stabilizing effect on the flame. Magnetic field and oxygen enrichmentcan modify the amplitude and the frequency of different kind of instabilities. The major advantageconsists in the stabilization of the flame on the burner rim.L'étude et la compréhension du comportement des flammes de diffusion sont nécessaires et ceci à cause de leur présence dans diverses applications industrielles. Dans la présente étude, cette flamme de diffusion laminaire est issue d'un jet circulaire de méthane et d'un jet coaxial d'air. Deux moyens sont proposés afin d'influencer cette flamme: l'application d'un champ magnétique non-homogène et l'enrichissement du jet d'air coaxial en oxygène. L'effet de ces deux facteurs est étudié au niveau des caractéristiques de la flamme hauteur de décrochage ou lift et la longueur de la flamme), son comportement, sa stabilité et les instabilités d'écoulement en amont de la flamme, de front de flamme et de sommet de la flamme (flickering). L'effet du champ magnétique dépend du signe de son gradient, et cet effet est dû à la génération d'une force magnétique et de la modification des courants de convection. L'enrichissement de l'air en oxygène a un effet stabilisant sur la flamme, une meilleure efficacité énergétique est remarquée. Le champ magnétique et l'enrichissement en oxygène modifient l'amplitude et la fréquence des instabilités évoquées. Un avantage majeur de ces moyens de contrôle pourrait être une stabilisation de la flamme décrochée a la sortie du brûleur

Etude des effets magnétiques et des effets de l'enrichissement en oxygène sur la combustion d'une flamme de diffusion laminaire CH4-Air : optimisation de l'efficacité énergétique

Studying and understanding the behavior of diffusion flames becomes of great importance becauseof their presence in different industrial applications. In this study, the laminar diffusion flame isissued from a circular jet of methane and a coaxial jet of air. Two ways are proposed to influencethis flame: the application of a non-homogeneous magnetic field and enrichment of air with oxygen.The effect of these two factors is studied on the flame characteristics (lift-off height and flamelength), its behavior, stability and the instabilities of the upstream flow, the flame base and theflame top (flickering). The effect of the magnetic field depends on the sign of its gradient, and it'sdue to the generation of a magnetic force and the influence on the convection motion. Enrichmentof air with oxygen is having a stabilizing effect on the flame. Magnetic field and oxygen enrichmentcan modify the amplitude and the frequency of different kind of instabilities. The major advantageconsists in the stabilization of the flame on the burner rim.L'étude et la compréhension du comportement des flammes de diffusion sont nécessaires et ceci à cause de leur présence dans diverses applications industrielles. Dans la présente étude, cette flamme de diffusion laminaire est issue d'un jet circulaire de méthane et d'un jet coaxial d'air. Deux moyens sont proposés afin d'influencer cette flamme: l'application d'un champ magnétique non-homogène et l'enrichissement du jet d'air coaxial en oxygène. L'effet de ces deux facteurs est étudié au niveau des caractéristiques de la flamme hauteur de décrochage ou lift et la longueur de la flamme), son comportement, sa stabilité et les instabilités d'écoulement en amont de la flamme, de front de flamme et de sommet de la flamme (flickering). L'effet du champ magnétique dépend du signe de son gradient, et cet effet est dû à la génération d'une force magnétique et de la modification des courants de convection. L'enrichissement de l'air en oxygène a un effet stabilisant sur la flamme, une meilleure efficacité énergétique est remarquée. Le champ magnétique et l'enrichissement en oxygène modifient l'amplitude et la fréquence des instabilités évoquées. Un avantage majeur de ces moyens de contrôle pourrait être une stabilisation de la flamme décrochée a la sortie du brûleur

Study of magnetic field and oxygen enrichment effects on the combustion of a laminar flame CH4-Air : optimisation of the energetic efficiency

L'étude et la compréhension du comportement des flammes de diffusion sont nécessaires et ceci à cause de leur présence dans diverses applications industrielles. Dans la présente étude, cette flamme de diffusion laminaire est issue d'un jet circulaire de méthane et d'un jet coaxial d'air. Deux moyens sont proposés afin d'influencer cette flamme: l'application d'un champ magnétique non-homogène et l'enrichissement du jet d'air coaxial en oxygène. L'effet de ces deux facteurs est étudié au niveau des caractéristiques de la flamme hauteur de décrochage ou lift et la longueur de la flamme), son comportement, sa stabilité et les instabilités d'écoulement en amont de la flamme, de front de flamme et de sommet de la flamme (flickering). L'effet du champ magnétique dépend du signe de son gradient, et cet effet est dû à la génération d'une force magnétique et de la modification des courants de convection. L'enrichissement de l'air en oxygène a un effet stabilisant sur la flamme, une meilleure efficacité énergétique est remarquée. Le champ magnétique et l'enrichissement en oxygène modifient l'amplitude et la fréquence des instabilités évoquées. Un avantage majeur de ces moyens de contrôle pourrait être une stabilisation de la flamme décrochée a la sortie du brûleur.Studying and understanding the behavior of diffusion flames becomes of great importance becauseof their presence in different industrial applications. In this study, the laminar diffusion flame isissued from a circular jet of methane and a coaxial jet of air. Two ways are proposed to influencethis flame: the application of a non-homogeneous magnetic field and enrichment of air with oxygen.The effect of these two factors is studied on the flame characteristics (lift-off height and flamelength), its behavior, stability and the instabilities of the upstream flow, the flame base and theflame top (flickering). The effect of the magnetic field depends on the sign of its gradient, and it'sdue to the generation of a magnetic force and the influence on the convection motion. Enrichmentof air with oxygen is having a stabilizing effect on the flame. Magnetic field and oxygen enrichmentcan modify the amplitude and the frequency of different kind of instabilities. The major advantageconsists in the stabilization of the flame on the burner rim

Etude des effets magnétiques et des effets de l'enrichissement en oxygène sur la combustion d'une flamme de diffusion laminaire CH4-Air (optimisation de l'efficacité énergétique)

L'étude et la compréhension du comportement des flammes de diffusion sont nécessaires et ceci à cause de leur présence dans diverses applications industrielles. Dans la présente étude, cette flamme de diffusion laminaire est issue d'un jet circulaire de méthane et d'un jet coaxial d'air. Deux moyens sont proposés afin d'influencer cette flamme: l'application d'un champ magnétique non-homogène et l'enrichissement du jet d'air coaxial en oxygène. L'effet de ces deux facteurs est étudié au niveau des caractéristiques de la flamme hauteur de décrochage ou lift et la longueur de la flamme), son comportement, sa stabilité et les instabilités d'écoulement en amont de la flamme, de front de flamme et de sommet de la flamme (flickering). L'effet du champ magnétique dépend du signe de son gradient, et cet effet est dû à la génération d'une force magnétique et de la modification des courants de convection. L'enrichissement de l'air en oxygène a un effet stabilisant sur la flamme, une meilleure efficacité énergétique est remarquée. Le champ magnétique et l'enrichissement en oxygène modifient l'amplitude et la fréquence des instabilités évoquées. Un avantage majeur de ces moyens de contrôle pourrait être une stabilisation de la flamme décrochée a la sortie du brûleur.Studying and understanding the behavior of diffusion flames becomes of great importance becauseof their presence in different industrial applications. In this study, the laminar diffusion flame isissued from a circular jet of methane and a coaxial jet of air. Two ways are proposed to influencethis flame: the application of a non-homogeneous magnetic field and enrichment of air with oxygen.The effect of these two factors is studied on the flame characteristics (lift-off height and flamelength), its behavior, stability and the instabilities of the upstream flow, the flame base and theflame top (flickering). The effect of the magnetic field depends on the sign of its gradient, and it'sdue to the generation of a magnetic force and the influence on the convection motion. Enrichmentof air with oxygen is having a stabilizing effect on the flame. Magnetic field and oxygen enrichmentcan modify the amplitude and the frequency of different kind of instabilities. The major advantageconsists in the stabilization of the flame on the burner rim.ORLEANS-SCD-Bib. electronique (452349901) / SudocSudocFranceF