The Lick AGN Monitoring Project: Reverberation Mapping of Optical Hydrogen and Helium Recombination Lines

We have recently completed a 64-night spectroscopic monitoring campaign at the Lick Observatory 3-m Shane telescope with the aim of measuring the masses of the black holes in 12 nearby (z < 0.05) Seyfert 1 galaxies with expected masses in the range ~10^6-10^7M_sun and also the well-studied nearby active galactic nucleus (AGN) NGC 5548. Nine of the objects in the sample (including NGC 5548) showed optical variability of sufficient strength during the monitoring campaign to allow for a time lag to be measured between the continuum fluctuations and the response to these fluctuations in the broad Hbeta emission, which we have previously reported. We present here the light curves for the Halpha, Hgamma, HeII 4686, and HeI 5876 emission lines and the time lags for the emission-line responses relative to changes in the continuum flux. Combining each emission-line time lag with the measured width of the line in the variable part of the spectrum, we determine a virial mass of the central supermassive black hole from several independent emission lines. We find that the masses are generally consistent within the uncertainties. The time-lag response as a function of velocity across the Balmer line profiles is examined for six of the AGNs. Finally we compare several trends seen in the dataset against the predictions from photoionization calculations as presented by Korista & Goad. We confirm several of their predictions, including an increase in responsivity and a decrease in the mean time lag as the excitation and ionization level for the species increases. Further confirmation of photoionization predictions for broad-line gas behavior will require additional monitoring programs for these AGNs while they are in different luminosity states. [abridged]Comment: 37 pages, 18 figures and 15 tables, accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journa

Prognostic significance of T-cell–inflamed gene expression profile and PD-L1 expression in patients with esophageal cancer

PURPOSE: The ability of the T‐cell–inflamed gene expression profile (GEP) to predict clinical outcome in esophageal cancer (EC) is unknown. This retrospective observational study assessed the prognostic value of GEP and programmed death ligand 1 (PD‐L1) expression in patients with EC treated in routine clinical practice. METHODS: Tumor samples of 294 patients from three centers in Denmark, South Korea, and the United States, collected between 2005 and 2017, were included. T‐cell–inflamed GEP score was defined as non‐low or low using a cutoff of −1.54. A combined positive score (CPS) ≥10 was defined as PD‐L1 expression positivity. Associations between overall survival (OS) and GEP status and PD‐L1 expression were explored by Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for age, sex, histology, stage, and performance status. RESULTS: Median age was 65 years; 63% of patients had adenocarcinoma (AC) and 37% had squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). Thirty‐six percent of tumors were GEP non‐low, with higher prevalence in AC (46%) than SCC (18%). Twenty‐one percent were PD‐L1–positive: 32% in South Korean samples versus 16% in non‐Asian samples and 26% in SCC versus 18% in AC. GEP scores and PD‐L1 CPS were weakly correlated (Spearman’s R = 0.363). OS was not significantly associated with GEP status (non‐low vs low; adjusted hazard ratio, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.69–1.19]) or PD‐L1 expression status. CONCLUSION: Neither GEP nor PD‐L1 expression was a prognostic marker in Asian and non‐Asian patients with EC

The Lick AGN Monitoring Project: Broad-Line Region Radii and Black Hole Masses from Reverberation Mapping of Hbeta

We have recently completed a 64-night spectroscopic monitoring campaign at the Lick Observatory 3-m Shane telescope with the aim of measuring the masses of the black holes in 12 nearby (z < 0.05) Seyfert 1 galaxies with expected masses in the range ~10^6-10^7 M_sun and also the well-studied nearby active galactic nucleus (AGN) NGC 5548. Nine of the objects in the sample (including NGC 5548) showed optical variability of sufficient strength during the monitoring campaign to allow for a time lag to be measured between the continuum fluctuations and the response to these fluctuations in the broad Hbeta emission. We present here the light curves for the objects in this sample and the subsequent Hbeta time lags for the nine objects where these measurements were possible. The Hbeta lag time is directly related to the size of the broad-line region, and by combining the lag time with the measured width of the Hbeta emission line in the variable part of the spectrum, we determine the virial mass of the central supermassive black hole in these nine AGNs. The absolute calibration of the black hole masses is based on the normalization derived by Onken et al. We also examine the time lag response as a function of velocity across the Hbeta line profile for six of the AGNs. The analysis of four leads to ambiguous results with relatively flat time lags as a function of velocity. However, SBS 1116+583A exhibits a symmetric time lag response around the line center reminiscent of simple models for circularly orbiting broad-line region (BLR) clouds, and Arp 151 shows an asymmetric profile that is most easily explained by a simple gravitational infall model. Further investigation will be necessary to fully understand the constraints placed on physical models of the BLR by the velocity-resolved response in these objects.Comment: 24 pages, 16 figures and 13 tables, submitted to Ap

T cell-inflamed gene expression profile and PD-L1 expression and pembrolizumab efficacy in advanced esophageal cancer

Aim: Investigate the relationship between response to pembrolizumab and expression of the 18-gene T cell-inflamed gene expression profile (TcellinfGEP) or PD-L1 combined positive score (CPS) in esophageal cancer. Materials & methods: This analysis included heavily pretreated patients with advanced/metastatic esophageal/gastroesophageal junction adenocarcinoma or squamous cell carcinoma who received pembrolizumab in the single-arm, phase II study KEYNOTE-180. PD-L1 CPS was evaluated with PD-L1 IHC 22C3 pharmDx. Results: In patients with squamous cell carcinoma, trends toward enrichment for responders were observed for patients with PD-L1 CPS ≥10 tumors. In patients with adenocarcinoma, a trend was observed for TcellinfGEP but not for PD-L1. Conclusion: TcellinfGEP and PD-L1 CPS may enrich for responders to pembrolizumab in patients with esophageal cancer. Clinical Trial Registration: NCT02559687 (ClinicalTrials.gov

First Results from the Lick AGN Monitoring Project: The Mass of the Black Hole in Arp 151

We have recently completed a 64-night spectroscopic monitoring campaign at the Lick Observatory 3-m Shane telescope with the aim of measuring the masses of the black holes in 13 nearby (z < 0.05) Seyfert 1 galaxies with expected masses in the range ~10^6-10^7 M_sun. We present here the first results from this project -- the mass of the central black hole in Arp 151. Strong variability throughout the campaign led to an exceptionally clean Hbeta lag measurement in this object of 4.25(+0.68/-0.66) days in the observed frame. Coupled with the width of the Hbeta emission line in the variable spectrum, we determine a black hole mass of (7.1 +/- 1.2)x10^6 M_sun, assuming the Onken et al. normalization for reverberation-based virial masses. We also find velocity-resolved lag information within the Hbeta emission line which clearly shows infalling gas in the Hbeta-emitting region. Further detailed analysis may lead to a full model of the geometry and kinematics of broad line region gas around the central black hole in Arp 151.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures and 2 tables, accepted for publication in ApJ Letter

Many Labs 5:Testing pre-data collection peer review as an intervention to increase replicability

Replication studies in psychological science sometimes fail to reproduce prior findings. If these studies use methods that are unfaithful to the original study or ineffective in eliciting the phenomenon of interest, then a failure to replicate may be a failure of the protocol rather than a challenge to the original finding. Formal pre-data-collection peer review by experts may address shortcomings and increase replicability rates. We selected 10 replication studies from the Reproducibility Project: Psychology (RP:P; Open Science Collaboration, 2015) for which the original authors had expressed concerns about the replication designs before data collection; only one of these studies had yielded a statistically significant effect (p < .05). Commenters suggested that lack of adherence to expert review and low-powered tests were the reasons that most of these RP:P studies failed to replicate the original effects. We revised the replication protocols and received formal peer review prior to conducting new replication studies. We administered the RP:P and revised protocols in multiple laboratories (median number of laboratories per original study = 6.5, range = 3?9; median total sample = 1,279.5, range = 276?3,512) for high-powered tests of each original finding with both protocols. Overall, following the preregistered analysis plan, we found that the revised protocols produced effect sizes similar to those of the RP:P protocols (?r = .002 or .014, depending on analytic approach). The median effect size for the revised protocols (r = .05) was similar to that of the RP:P protocols (r = .04) and the original RP:P replications (r = .11), and smaller than that of the original studies (r = .37). Analysis of the cumulative evidence across the original studies and the corresponding three replication attempts provided very precise estimates of the 10 tested effects and indicated that their effect sizes (median r = .07, range = .00?.15) were 78% smaller, on average, than the original effect sizes (median r = .37, range = .19?.50)

Creative destruction in science

Drawing on the concept of a gale of creative destruction in a capitalistic economy, we argue that initiatives to assess the robustness of findings in the organizational literature should aim to simultaneously test competing ideas operating in the same theoretical space. In other words, replication efforts should seek not just to support or question the original findings, but also to replace them with revised, stronger theories with greater explanatory power. Achieving this will typically require adding new measures, conditions, and subject populations to research designs, in order to carry out conceptual tests of multiple theories in addition to directly replicating the original findings. To illustrate the value of the creative destruction approach for theory pruning in organizational scholarship, we describe recent replication initiatives re-examining culture and work morality, working parents\u2019 reasoning about day care options, and gender discrimination in hiring decisions. Significance statement It is becoming increasingly clear that many, if not most, published research findings across scientific fields are not readily replicable when the same method is repeated. Although extremely valuable, failed replications risk leaving a theoretical void\u2014 reducing confidence the original theoretical prediction is true, but not replacing it with positive evidence in favor of an alternative theory. We introduce the creative destruction approach to replication, which combines theory pruning methods from the field of management with emerging best practices from the open science movement, with the aim of making replications as generative as possible. In effect, we advocate for a Replication 2.0 movement in which the goal shifts from checking on the reliability of past findings to actively engaging in competitive theory testing and theory building. Scientific transparency statement The materials, code, and data for this article are posted publicly on the Open Science Framework, with links provided in the article