Inland extent of the Weddell Sea Rift imaged by new aerogeophysical data

Peer reviewedPostprin

The global distribution of Bacillus anthracis and associated anthrax risk to humans, livestock and wildlife.

Bacillus anthracis is a spore-forming, Gram-positive bacterium responsible for anthrax, an acute infection that most significantly affects grazing livestock and wild ungulates, but also poses a threat to human health. The geographic extent of B. anthracis is poorly understood, despite multi-decade research on anthrax epizootic and epidemic dynamics; many countries have limited or inadequate surveillance systems, even within known endemic regions. Here, we compile a global occurrence dataset of human, livestock and wildlife anthrax outbreaks. With these records, we use boosted regression trees to produce a map of the global distribution of B. anthracis as a proxy for anthrax risk. We estimate that 1.83 billion people (95% credible interval (CI): 0.59-4.16 billion) live within regions of anthrax risk, but most of that population faces little occupational exposure. More informatively, a global total of 63.8 million poor livestock keepers (95% CI: 17.5-168.6 million) and 1.1 billion livestock (95% CI: 0.4-2.3 billion) live within vulnerable regions. Human and livestock vulnerability are both concentrated in rural rainfed systems throughout arid and temperate land across Eurasia, Africa and North America. We conclude by mapping where anthrax risk could disrupt sensitive conservation efforts for wild ungulates that coincide with anthrax-prone landscapes

The seasonal cycle of carbonate system processes in Ryder Bay, West Antarctic Peninsula

The carbon cycle in seasonally sea-ice covered waters remains poorly understood due to both a lack of observational data and the complexity of the system. Here we present three consecutive seasonal cycles of upper ocean dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity measurements from Ryder Bay on the West Antarctic Peninsula. We attribute the observed changes in DIC to four processes: mixing of water masses, air–sea CO2 flux, calcium carbonate precipitation/dissolution and photosynthesis/respiration. This approach enables us to resolve the main drivers of the seasonal DIC cycle and also investigate the mechanisms behind interannual variability in the carbonate system. We observe a strong, asymmetric seasonal cycle in the carbonate system, driven by physical processes and primary production. In summer, melting glacial ice and sea ice and a reduction in mixing with deeper water reduce the concentration of DIC in surface waters. The dominant process affecting the carbonate system is net photosynthesis which reduces DIC and the fugacity of CO2, making the ocean a net sink of atmospheric CO2. In winter, mixing with deeper, carbon-rich water and net heterotrophy increase surface DIC concentrations, resulting in pH as low as 7.95 and aragonite saturation states close to 1. We observe no clear seasonal cycle of calcium carbonate precipitation/dissolution but some short-lived features of the carbonate time series strongly suggest that significant precipitation of calcium carbonate does occur in the Bay. The variability observed in this study demonstrates that changes in mixing and sea-ice cover significantly affect carbon cycling in this dynamic environment. Maintaining this unique time series will allow the carbonate system in seasonally sea-ice covered waters to be better understood

Modelling Eurasian Beaver Foraging Habitat and Dam Suitability, for Predicting the Location and Number of Dams Throughout Catchments in Great Britain

Eurasian beaver (Castor fiber) populations are expanding across Europe. Depending on location, beaver dams bring multiple benefits and/or require management. Using nationally available data, we developed: a Beaver Forage Index (BFI), identifying beaver foraging habitat, and a Beaver Dam Capacity (BDC) model, classifying suitability of river reaches for dam construction, to estimate location and number of dams at catchment scales. Models were executed across three catchments, in Great Britain (GB), containing beaver. An area of 6747 km2 was analysed for BFI and 16,739 km of stream for BDC. Field surveys identified 258 km of channel containing beaver activity and 89 dams, providing data to test predictions. Models were evaluated using a categorical binomial Bayesian framework to calculate probability of foraging and dam construction. BFI and BDC models successfully categorised the use of reaches for foraging and damming, with higher scoring reaches being preferred. Highest scoring categories were ca. 31 and 79 times more likely to be used than the lowest for foraging and damming respectively. Zero-inflated negative binomial regression showed that modelled dam capacity was significantly related (p = 0.01) to observed damming and was used to predict numbers of dams that may occur. Estimated densities of dams, averaged across each catchment, ranged from 0.4 to 1.6 dams/km, though local densities may be up to 30 dams/km. These models provide fundamental information describing the distribution of beaver foraging habitat, where dams may be constructed and how many may occur. This supports the development of policy and management concerning the reintroduction and recolonisation of beaver

Early diagnosis of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis by threshold tracking and conventional transcranial magnetic stimulation

© 2021 The Authors. European Journal of Neurology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Academy of Neurology. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.Background and purpose: Short-interval intracortical inhibition by threshold tracking (T-SICI) has been proposed as a diagnostic tool for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) but has not been compared directly with conventional amplitude measurements (A-SICI). This study compared A-SICI and T-SICI for sensitivity and clinical usefulness as biomarkers for ALS. Methods: In all, 104 consecutive patients referred with suspicion of ALS were prospectively included and were subsequently divided into 62 patients with motor neuron disease (MND) and 42 patient controls (ALS mimics) by clinical follow-up. T-SICI and A-SICI recorded in the first dorsal interosseus muscle (index test) were compared with recordings from 53 age-matched healthy controls. The reference standard was the Awaji criteria. Clinical scorings, conventional nerve conduction studies and electromyography were also performed on the patients. Results: Motor neuron disease patients had significantly reduced T-SICI and A-SICI compared with the healthy and patient control groups, which were similar. Sensitivity and specificity for discriminating MND patients from patient controls were high (areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves 0.762 and 0.810 for T-SICI and A-SICI respectively at 1-3.5 ms). Paradoxically, T-SICI was most reduced in MND patients with the fewest upper motor neuron (UMN) signs (Spearman ρ = 0.565, p = 4.3 × 10-6 ). Conclusions: Amplitude-based measure of cortical inhibition and T-SICI are both sensitive measures for the detection of cortical involvement in MND patients and may help early diagnosis of ALS, with T-SICI most abnormal before UMN signs have developed. The gradation in T-SICI from pathological facilitation in patients with minimal UMN signs to inhibition in those with the most UMN signs may be due to progressive degeneration of the subset of UMNs experiencing facilitation.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

The LOFAR Transients Pipeline

Current and future astronomical survey facilities provide a remarkably rich opportunity for transient astronomy, combining unprecedented fields of view with high sensitivity and the ability to access previously unexplored wavelength regimes. This is particularly true of LOFAR, a recently-commissioned, low-frequency radio interferometer, based in the Netherlands and with stations across Europe. The identification of and response to transients is one of LOFAR's key science goals. However, the large data volumes which LOFAR produces, combined with the scientific requirement for rapid response, make automation essential. To support this, we have developed the LOFAR Transients Pipeline, or TraP. The TraP ingests multi-frequency image data from LOFAR or other instruments and searches it for transients and variables, providing automatic alerts of significant detections and populating a lightcurve database for further analysis by astronomers. Here, we discuss the scientific goals of the TraP and how it has been designed to meet them. We describe its implementation, including both the algorithms adopted to maximize performance as well as the development methodology used to ensure it is robust and reliable, particularly in the presence of artefacts typical of radio astronomy imaging. Finally, we report on a series of tests of the pipeline carried out using simulated LOFAR observations with a known population of transients.Comment: 30 pages, 11 figures; Accepted for publication in Astronomy & Computing; Code at https://github.com/transientskp/tk

The seasonal cycle of ocean-atmosphere CO2 Flux in Ryder Bay, West Antarctic Peninsula

Approximately 15 million km2 of the Southern Ocean is seasonally ice covered, yet the processes affecting carbon cycling and gas exchange in this climatically important region remain inadequately understood. Here, 3 years of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) measurements and carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes from Ryder Bay on the west Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) are presented. During spring and summer, primary production in the surface ocean promotes atmospheric CO2 uptake. In winter, higher DIC, caused by net heterotrophy and vertical mixing with Circumpolar Deep Water, results in outgassing of CO2 from the ocean. Ryder Bay is found to be a net sink of atmospheric CO2 of 0.59–0.94 mol C m−2 yr−1 (average of 3 years). Seasonal sea ice cover increases the net annual CO2 uptake, but its effect on gas exchange remains poorly constrained. A reduction in sea ice on the WAP shelf may reduce the strength of the oceanic CO2 sink in this region

Acupuncture for chronic neck pain: a pilot for a randomised controlled trial

Background: Acupuncture is increasingly being used for many conditions including chronic neck pain. However the evidence remains inconclusive, indicating the need for further well-designed research. The aim of this study was to conduct a pilot randomised controlled parallel arm trial, to establish key features required for the design and implementation of a large-scale trial on acupuncture for chronic neck pain. Methods: Patients whose GPs had diagnosed neck pain were recruited from one general practice, and randomised to receive usual GP care only, or acupuncture ( up to 10 treatments over 3 months) as an adjunctive treatment to usual GP care. The primary outcome measure was the Northwick Park Neck Pain Questionnaire (NPQ) at 3 months. The primary analysis was to determine the sample size for the full scale study. Results: Of the 227 patients with neck pain identified from the GP database, 28 (12.3%) consenting patients were eligible to participate in the pilot and 24 (10.5%) were recruited to the trial. Ten patients were randomised to acupuncture, receiving an average of eight treatments from one of four acupuncturists, and 14 were randomised to usual GP care alone. The sample size for the full scale trial was calculated from a clinically meaningful difference of 5% on the NPQ and, from this pilot, an adjusted standard deviation of 15.3%. Assuming 90% power at the 5% significance level, a sample size of 229 would be required in each arm in a large-scale trial when allowing for a loss to follow-up rate of 14%. In order to achieve this sample, one would need to identify patients from databases of GP practices with a total population of 230,000 patients, or approximately 15 GP practices roughly equal in size to the one involved in this study (i.e. 15,694 patients). Conclusion: This pilot study has allowed a number of recommendations to be made to facilitate the design of a large-scale trial, which in turn will help to clarify the existing evidence base on acupuncture for neck pain