Contributions of economists to the housing-price bubble

After the bursting of the housing-price bubble in 2006 and ensuing financial crisis, there has been much discussion of what economists could have done differently to help avert the crisis and "Great Recession" that followed. One dimension of this concerns information supplied by economists to the general public about causes of high appreciation in home prices and their likely future course, as good information could have helped the public hedge their finances against downside risks while bad information may have encouraged them to take on too much risk. This paper analyzes data from 24 California newspapers on assessments and predictions offered by economists as to whether bubbles were forming in the state's housing markets. In brief, we find that the California public was fairly decently served by economists offering their views via the media -- although with some significant problems of biased forecasts not made in good faith, and of inattention to concerns about "harm avoidance" that ought to apply when economists share their opinions in this way.JEL classification: R21, D31, D12, E32

The social economics of ethical consumption: Theoretical considerations and empirical evidence

Recent years have seen rising discussion of ethical consumption as a means of stemming global warming, challenging unsavory business practices, and promoting other pro-social goals. This paper first lays out a conceptual framework for understanding the spread of ethical consumption, in which heterogeneous preferences and sensitivity to social norms feature centrally. It then presents empirical evidence from a well-known nationally representative survey on factors associated with tendencies to buy ethically. It is found that, ceteris paribus, people are more likely to buy ethically when others around them do too, consistent with a role of social norms in promoting ethical-consumption behaviors.

Who pays the price when housing bubbles burst? Evidence from the American Community Survey

There has been much debate in recent years about whether the Federal Reserve should have taken action against the housing-price bubble as it was forming. One argument in favor of using monetary policy to offset asset-price bubbles is that it may be impossible after the bubble bursts to ease policy hard enough or fast enough to offset a strong contraction. While the fall in housing prices since 2006 has clearly increased unemployment and depressed growth, much less is known about how the costs have been distributed across households of different means. This paper uses data from the Census Bureau's annual American Community Survey (ACS) to examine this question. We first lay out the mechanisms via which a housing-market bust would be expected to affect households, in terms of incomes, employment, assets, and ability to service debt. We then use the ACS data to analyze how the house-price bust has affected households with different characteristics, differentiating between communities in which home prices did and did not boom and bust. Our results suggest that costs of the bubble have tended to fall on households less able to endure periods of financial distress. This lends further support to the argument that monetary policy oriented to social welfare should tackle bubbles ex ante rather than ex post.

Distributional costs of the housing-price bust

In considering whether asset-price bubbles should be offset through policy, an important issue is who pays the price when the bubble bursts. A bust that reduces the wealth of well-off households only may have small welfare costs, but costs may be sizable if broad swaths of households are affected. This paper uses micro data from the American Community Survey to examine how the recent housing bust affected households' employment, homeownership, home values, and housing costs. To separate dynamics of the housing bust from those of the aggregate downturn, we differentiate between metropolitan areas that did and did not experience bubbles. We find that, for most measures, deteriorations in well-being were more severe in bubble metros than elsewhere, and for several measures, differential effects on less-educated households were also more severe. This underscores the importance of keeping housing markets from overheating, as burdens of adjustment fall differentially on people not well prepared to bear them.JEL classification: R21, D31, D12, E32

EDGAR: A software framework for the comparative analysis of prokaryotic genomes

Blom J, Albaum S, Doppmeier D, et al. EDGAR: a software framework for the comparative analysis of prokaryotic genomes. BMC Bioinformatics. 2009;10(1): 154.Background:The introduction of next generation sequencing approaches has caused a rapid increase in the number of completely sequenced genomes. As one result of this development, it is now feasible to analyze large groups of related genomes in a comparative approach. A main task in comparative genomics is the identification of orthologous genes in different genomes and the classification of genes as core genes or singletons. Results: To support these studies EDGAR – ''Efficient Database framework for comparative Genome Analyses using BLAST score Ratios'' – was developed. EDGAR is designed to automatically perform genome comparisons in a high throughput approach. Comparative analyses for 582 genomes across 75 genus groups taken from the NCBI genomes database were conducted with the software and the results were integrated into an underlying database. To demonstrate a specific application case, we analyzed ten genomes of the bacterial genus Xanthomonas, for which phylogenetic studies were awkward due to divergent taxonomic systems. The resultant phylogeny EDGAR provided was consistent with outcomes from traditional approaches performed recently and moreover, it was possible to root each strain with unprecedented accuracy. Conclusion: EDGAR provides novel analysis features and significantly simplifies the comparative analysis of related genomes. The software supports a quick survey of evolutionary relationships and simplifies the process of obtaining new biological insights into the differential gene content of kindred genomes. Visualization features, like synteny plots or Venn diagrams, are offered to the scientific community through a web-based and therefore platform independent user interface http://edgar.cebitec.uni-bielefeld.de webcite, where the precomputed data sets can be browsed

The James Webb Space Telescope Mission

Twenty-six years ago a small committee report, building on earlier studies, expounded a compelling and poetic vision for the future of astronomy, calling for an infrared-optimized space telescope with an aperture of at least $4m$. With the support of their governments in the US, Europe, and Canada, 20,000 people realized that vision as the $6.5m$ James Webb Space Telescope. A generation of astronomers will celebrate their accomplishments for the life of the mission, potentially as long as 20 years, and beyond. This report and the scientific discoveries that follow are extended thank-you notes to the 20,000 team members. The telescope is working perfectly, with much better image quality than expected. In this and accompanying papers, we give a brief history, describe the observatory, outline its objectives and current observing program, and discuss the inventions and people who made it possible. We cite detailed reports on the design and the measured performance on orbit.Comment: Accepted by PASP for the special issue on The James Webb Space Telescope Overview, 29 pages, 4 figure

New genetic loci link adipose and insulin biology to body fat distribution.

Body fat distribution is a heritable trait and a well-established predictor of adverse metabolic outcomes, independent of overall adiposity. To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of body fat distribution and its molecular links to cardiometabolic traits, here we conduct genome-wide association meta-analyses of traits related to waist and hip circumferences in up to 224,459 individuals. We identify 49 loci (33 new) associated with waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index (BMI), and an additional 19 loci newly associated with related waist and hip circumference measures (P < 5 × 10(-8)). In total, 20 of the 49 waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI loci show significant sexual dimorphism, 19 of which display a stronger effect in women. The identified loci were enriched for genes expressed in adipose tissue and for putative regulatory elements in adipocytes. Pathway analyses implicated adipogenesis, angiogenesis, transcriptional regulation and insulin resistance as processes affecting fat distribution, providing insight into potential pathophysiological mechanisms