Risk factors and a predictive model for under-five mortality in Nigeria: evidence from Nigeria demographic and health survey

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Under-5 mortality is a major public health challenge in developing countries. It is essential to identify determinants of under-five mortality (U5M) childhood mortality because these will assist in formulating appropriate health programmes and policies in order to meet the United Nations MDG goal. The objective of this study was to develop a predictive model and identify maternal, child, family and other risk factors associated U5M in Nigeria.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Population-based cross-sectional study which explored 2008 demographic and health survey of Nigeria (NDHS) with multivariable logistic regression. Likelihood Ratio Test, Hosmer-Lemeshow Goodness-of-Fit and Variance Inflation Factor were used to check the fit of the model and the predictive power of the model was assessed with Receiver Operating Curve (ROC curve).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>This study yielded an excellent predictive model which revealed that the likelihood of U5M among the children of mothers that had their first marriage at age 20-24 years and ≥ 25 years declined by 20% and 30% respectively compared to children of those that married before the age of 15 years. Also, the following factors reduced odds of U5M: health seeking behaviour, breastfeeding children for > 18 months, use of contraception, small family size, having one wife, low birth order, normal birth weight, child spacing, living in urban areas, and good sanitation.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study has revealed that maternal, child, family and other factors were important risk factors of U5M in Nigeria. This study has identified important risk factors that will assist in formulating policies that will improve child survival.</p

Co-Morbidity between Early-Onset Leukemia and Type 1 Diabetes – Suggestive of a Shared Viral Etiology?

Background: Acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) and acute myeloid leukemia (AML) are common early-onset malignancies. Their causes are largely unknown but infectious etiology has been implicated. Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is an autoimmune disease for which infectious triggers of disease onset have been sought and increasing pointing to enteroviruses. Based on our previous results on co-morbidity between leukemia and T1D, we updated the Swedish dataset and focused on early onset leukemias in patients who had been hospitalized for T1D, comparing to those not hospitalized for T1D. Methods and Findings: Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated for leukemia in 24,052 patients hospitalized for T1D covering years 1964 through 2008. T1D patients were included if hospitalized before age 21 years. Practically all Swedish children and adolescents with T1D are hospitalized at the start of insulin treatment. SIR for ALL was 8.30 (N = 18, 95% confidence interval 4.91-13.14) when diagnosed at age 10 to 20 years after hospitalization for T1D and it was 3.51 (13, 1.86-6.02) before hospitalization for T1D. The SIR for ALL was 19.85 (N = 33, 13.74-27.76) and that for AML was 25.28 (8, 10.80-50.06) when the leukemias were diagnosed within the year of T1D hospitalization. The SIRs increased to 38.97 (26, 25.43-57.18) and 40.11 (8, 17.13-79.42) when T1D was diagnosed between ages 10 to 20 years. No consistent time-dependent changes were found in leukemia risk. Conclusion: A shared infectious etiology could be a plausible explanation to the observed co-morbidity. Other possible contributing factors could be insulin therapy or T1D related metabolic disturbances

The Generation R Study: design and cohort update 2010

The Generation R Study is a population-based prospective cohort study from fetal life until young adulthood. The study is designed to identify early environmental and genetic causes of normal and abnormal growth, development and health during fetal life, childhood and adulthood. The study focuses on four primary areas of research: (1) growth and physical development; (2) behavioural and cognitive development; (3) diseases in childhood; and (4) health and healthcare for pregnant women and children. In total, 9,778 mothers with a delivery date from April 2002 until January 2006 were enrolled in the study. General follow-up rates until the age of 4 years exceed 75%. Data collection in mothers, fathers and preschool children included questionnaires, detailed physical and ultrasound examinations, behavioural observations, and biological samples. A genome wide association screen is available in the participating children. Regular detailed hands on assessment are performed from the age of 5 years onwards. Eventually, results forthcoming from the Generation R Study have to contribute to the development of strategies for optimizing health and healthcare for pregnant women and children

COVID-19 symptoms at hospital admission vary with age and sex: results from the ISARIC prospective multinational observational study

Background: The ISARIC prospective multinational observational study is the largest cohort of hospitalized patients with COVID-19. We present relationships of age, sex, and nationality to presenting symptoms. Methods: International, prospective observational study of 60 109 hospitalized symptomatic patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 recruited from 43 countries between 30 January and 3 August 2020. Logistic regression was performed to evaluate relationships of age and sex to published COVID-19 case definitions and the most commonly reported symptoms. Results: ‘Typical’ symptoms of fever (69%), cough (68%) and shortness of breath (66%) were the most commonly reported. 92% of patients experienced at least one of these. Prevalence of typical symptoms was greatest in 30- to 60-year-olds (respectively 80, 79, 69%; at least one 95%). They were reported less frequently in children (≤ 18 years: 69, 48, 23; 85%), older adults (≥ 70 years: 61, 62, 65; 90%), and women (66, 66, 64; 90%; vs. men 71, 70, 67; 93%, each P &lt; 0.001). The most common atypical presentations under 60 years of age were nausea and vomiting and abdominal pain, and over 60 years was confusion. Regression models showed significant differences in symptoms with sex, age and country. Interpretation: This international collaboration has allowed us to report reliable symptom data from the largest cohort of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. Adults over 60 and children admitted to hospital with COVID-19 are less likely to present with typical symptoms. Nausea and vomiting are common atypical presentations under 30 years. Confusion is a frequent atypical presentation of COVID-19 in adults over 60 years. Women are less likely to experience typical symptoms than men

Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis

Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent). Conclusion Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified

Statistical profiling of hospital performance using acute coronary syndrome mortality.

BACKGROUND: In order to improve the quality of care delivered to patients and to enable patient choice, public reports comparing hospital performances are routinely published. Robust systems of hospital 'report cards' on performance monitoring and evaluation are therefore crucial in medical decision-making processes. In particular, such systems should effectively account for and minimise systematic differences with regard to definitions and data quality, care and treatment quality, and 'case mix'. METHODS: Four methods for assessing hospital performance on mortality outcome measures were considered. The methods included combinations of Bayesian fixed- and random-effects models, and risk-adjusted mortality rate, and rank-based profiling techniques. The methods were empirically compared using 30-day mortality in patients admitted with acute coronary syndrome. Agreement was firstly assessed using median estimates between risk-adjusted mortality rates for a hospital and between ranks associated with a hospital's risk-adjusted mortality rates. Secondly, assessment of agreement was based on a classification of hospitals into low, normal or high performing using risk-adjusted mortality rates and ranks. RESULTS: There was poor agreement between the point estimates of risk-adjusted mortality rates, but better agreement between ranks. However, for categorised performance, the observed agreement between the methods' classification of the hospital performance ranged from 90 to 98%. In only two of the six possible pair-wise comparisons was agreement reasonable, as reflected by a Kappa statistic; it was 0.71 between the methods of identifying outliers with the fixed-effect model and 0.77 with the hierarchical model. In the remaining four pair-wise comparisons, the agreement was, at best, moderate. CONCLUSIONS: Even though the inconsistencies among the studied methods raise questions about which hospitals performed better or worse than others, it seems that the choice of the definition of outlying performance is less critical than that of the statistical approach. Therefore there is a need to find robust systems of 'regulation' or 'performance monitoring' that are meaningful to health service practitioners and providers

Assessing comorbidity and correlates of wasting and stunting among children in Somalia using cross-sectional household surveys: 2007 to 2010

Wasting and stunting may occur together at the individual child level; however, their shared geographic distribution and correlates remain unexplored. Understanding shared and separate correlates may inform interventions. We aimed to assess the spatial codistribution of wasting, stunting and underweight and investigate their shared correlates among children aged 6-59 months in Somalia.Cross-sectional nutritional assessments surveys were conducted using structured interviews among communities in Somalia biannually from 2007 to 2010. A two-stage cluster sampling methodology was used to select children aged 6-59 months from households across three livelihood zones (pastoral, agropastoral and riverine). Using these data and environmental covariates, we implemented a multivariate spatial technique to estimate the codistribution and divergence of the risks and correlates of wasting and stunting at the 1×1 km spatial resolution.73 778 children aged 6-59 months from 1066 survey clusters in Somalia.Observed pairwise child level empirical correlations were 0.30, 0.70 and 0.73 between weight-for-height and height-for-age; height-for-age and weight-for-age, and weight-for-height and weight-for-age, respectively. Access to foods with high protein content and vegetation cover, a proxy of rainfall or drought, were associated with lower risk of wasting and stunting. Age, gender, illness, access to carbohydrates and temperature were correlates of all three indicators. The spatial codistribution was highest between stunting and underweight with relative risk values ranging between 0.15 and 6.20, followed by wasting and underweight (range: 0.18-5.18) and lowest between wasting and stunting (range: 0.26-4.32).The determinants of wasting and stunting are largely shared, but their correlation is relatively variable in space. Significant hotspots of different forms of malnutrition occurred in the South Central regions of the country. Although nutrition response in Somalia has traditionally focused on wasting rather than stunting, integrated programming and interventions can effectively target both conditions to alleviate common risk factors

Favourable effect of the sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitor canagliflozin plus the dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor teneligliptin in combination on glycaemic fluctuation : An open-label, prospective, randomized, parallel-group comparison trial (the CALMER study)

This multicentre, prospective, randomized, open-label, blinded-endpoint, parallel-group, short-term (4-5 weeks) controlled trial was conducted to investigate the superiority of the effect of reducing mean amplitude of glycaemic excursions (MAGE) during meal tolerance tests (MTTs) for the combination of dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitor and sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitor compared with SGLT2 inhibitor monotherapy. Ninety-nine patients with type 2 diabetes who were taking teneligliptin (20 mg/d) were randomized to one of the following two groups: those who switched to 100 mg/d of canagliflozin (SWITCH group) or those who added 100 mg/d of canagliflozin (COMB group). MAGE in the COMB group was significantly decreased compared with that in the SWITCH group (COMB 117.5 +/- 39.8 to 92.2 +/- 28.0 mg/dL vs SWITCH 110.7 +/- 29.8 to 104.2 +/- 27.6 mg/dL; P<0.01). Mean blood glucose decreased significantly during MTTs in both groups, although the extent of the reduction was significantly greater in the COMB group (COMB 142.3 +/- 28.7 to 119.5 +/- 25.1 mg/dL vs SWITCH 146.4 +/- 25.5 to 135.5 +/- 22.4 mg/dL; P < 0.01). SGLT2 inhibitor combined with DPP-4 inhibitor therapy strongly reduced glycaemic fluctuation compared with SGLT2 inhibitor monotherapy