Inferring Population Preferences via Mixtures of Spatial Voting Models

Understanding political phenomena requires measuring the political preferences of society. We introduce a model based on mixtures of spatial voting models that infers the underlying distribution of political preferences of voters with only voting records of the population and political positions of candidates in an election. Beyond offering a cost-effective alternative to surveys, this method projects the political preferences of voters and candidates into a shared latent preference space. This projection allows us to directly compare the preferences of the two groups, which is desirable for political science but difficult with traditional survey methods. After validating the aggregated-level inferences of this model against results of related work and on simple prediction tasks, we apply the model to better understand the phenomenon of political polarization in the Texas, New York, and Ohio electorates. Taken at face value, inferences drawn from our model indicate that the electorates in these states may be less bimodal than the distribution of candidates, but that the electorates are comparatively more extreme in their variance. We conclude with a discussion of limitations of our method and potential future directions for research.Comment: To be published in the 8th International Conference on Social Informatics (SocInfo) 201

Sequential quasi-Monte Carlo: Introduction for Non-Experts, Dimension Reduction, Application to Partly Observed Diffusion Processes

SMC (Sequential Monte Carlo) is a class of Monte Carlo algorithms for filtering and related sequential problems. Gerber and Chopin (2015) introduced SQMC (Sequential quasi-Monte Carlo), a QMC version of SMC. This paper has two objectives: (a) to introduce Sequential Monte Carlo to the QMC community, whose members are usually less familiar with state-space models and particle filtering; (b) to extend SQMC to the filtering of continuous-time state-space models, where the latent process is a diffusion. A recurring point in the paper will be the notion of dimension reduction, that is how to implement SQMC in such a way that it provides good performance despite the high dimension of the problem.Comment: To be published in the proceedings of MCMQMC 201

Using small molecules to facilitate exchange of bicarbonate and chloride anions across liposomal membranes

Bicarbonate is involved in a wide range of biological processes, which include respiration, regulation of intracellular pH and fertilization. In this study we use a combination of NMR spectroscopy and ion-selective electrode techniques to show that the natural product prodigiosin, a tripyrrolic molecule produced by microorganisms such as Streptomyces and Serratia, facilitates chloride/bicarbonate exchange (antiport) across liposomal membranes. Higher concentrations of simple synthetic molecules based on a 4,6-dihydroxyisophthalamide core are also shown to facilitate this antiport process. Although it is well known that proteins regulate Cl-/HCO3- exchange in cells, these results suggest that small molecules may also be able to regulate the concentration of these anions in biological systems

FINAL FRONTIER AT HANFORD TACKLING THE CENTRAL PLATEAU

The large land area in the center of the vast Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford Site in southeast Washington State is known as 'the plateau'--aptly named because its surface elevations are 250-300 feet above the groundwater table. By contrast, areas on the 585-square mile Site that border the Columbia River sit just 30-80 feet above the water table. The Central Plateau, which covers an ellipse of approximately 70 square miles, contains Hanford's radiochemical reprocessing areas--the 200 East and 200 West Areas--and includes the most highly radioactive waste and contaminated facilities on the Site. Five 'canyons' where chemical processes were used to separate out plutonium (Pu), 884 identified soil waste sites (including approximately 50 miles of solid waste burial trenches), more than 900 structures, and all of Hanford's liquid waste storage tanks reside in the Central Plateau. (Notes: Canyons is a nickname given by Hanford workers to the chemical reprocessing facilities. The 177, underground waste tanks at Hanford comprise a separate work scope and are not under Fluor's management). Fluor Hanford, a DOE prime cleanup contractor at the Site for the past 12 years, has moved aggressively to investigate Central Plateau waste sites in the last few years, digging more than 500 boreholes, test pits, direct soil 'pushes' or drive points; logging geophysical data sets; and performing electrical-resistivity scans (a non-intrusive technique that maps patterns of sub-surface soil conductivity). The goal is to identify areas of contamination areas in soil and solid waste sites, so that cost-effective and appropriate decisions on remediation can be made. In 2007, Fluor developed a new work plan for DOE that added 238 soil waste-site characterization activities in the Central Plateau during fiscal years (FYs) 2007-2010. This number represents a 50 percent increase over similar work previously done in central Hanford. Work Plans are among the required steps in the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) cleanup process. The CERCLA process is used to oversee the investigation, decision-making and remediation of 'past practices' (historical) sites, as opposed to sites in active use. For the first several years of Hanford's cleanup work, everyone concerned--the Department, contractors, regulatory agencies, stakeholders and Indian nations and tribes--focused efforts on the rivershore. The magnificent Columbia River--eighth largest in the world--flows through and by the Hanford Site for 52 miles. Two million people live downstream from Hanford along the Columbia before it empties into the Pacific Ocean. Further, the part of the river known as the 'Hanford Reach' is a prime habitat for salmon, steelhead, sturgeon and other species of fish. In fact, it provides a spawning ground to more salmon than any other stretch of river in the United States outside of Alaska. For these reasons, protecting the Columbia by cleaning up waste directly along its shoreline was an early priority in Hanford's Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (or Tri-Party Agreement) signed in 1989 among the DOE, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Washington State to govern cleanup. However, Tri-Party Agreement signatories and others concerned with Hanford and the Columbia River, knew that the waste located in, and beneath, the Central Plateau could also pose dangers to the waterway. While the waste in central Hanford might move more slowly, and pose fewer immediate threats, it would have to be dealt with as cleanup progressed

FLUOR HANFORD DECOMMISSIONING UPDATE

Fluor Hanford is completing D&D of the K East Basin at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Hanford Site in southeastern Washington State this spring, with demolition expected to begin in June. Located about 400 yards from the Columbia River, the K East Basin is one of two indoor pools that formerly contained irradiated nuclear fuel, radioactive sludge and tons of contaminated debris. In unique and path-breaking work, workers finished removing the spent fuel from the K Basins in 2004. In May 2007, workers completed vacuuming the sludge into containers in the K East Basin, and transferring it into containers in the K West Basin. In December, they finished vacuuming the remainder of K West Basin sludge into these containers. The K East Basin was emptied of its radioactive inventory first because it was more contaminated than the K West Basin, and had leaked in the past. In October 2007, Fluor Hanford began physical D&D of the 8,400-square foot K East Basin by pouring approximately 14-inches of grout into the bottom of it. Grout is a type of special cement used for encasing waste. Two months later, Fluor Hanford workers completed sluicing contaminated sand from the large filter that had sieved contaminants from the basin water for more than 50 years. Next, they poured grout into the filter housing and the vault that surrounds the filter, as well as into ion exchange columns that also helped filter basin water. For a six-week period in February and March, personnel drained the approximately one million gallons of contaminated water from the K East Basin. The effort required more than 200 tanker truck loads that transported the water to an effluent treatment facility for treatment and then release. A thin fixative was also applied to the basin walls as the water was removed to hold residual contamination in place. As soon as the water was out of the basin, Fluor pumped in approximately 18 feet of 'controlled density fill' material (somewhat similar to sand) to shield workers to a safe level from the residual radioactivity. Workers then continued preparations for demolishing the structure. Currently, they are isolating utilities, removing asbestos, draining oils, and removing other items not allowed to be disposed in Hanford's Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF). The basin's superstructure will be demolished using a heavy industrial excavator equipped with a shear. This portion of the work is expected to be completed in September, with removal of the basin substructure to follow in 2009. D&D of the K East Basin eliminated the final major radioactive sources there, and made the Columbia River and the adjacent environment safer for everyone who lives downstream

Performance of the CMS Cathode Strip Chambers with Cosmic Rays

The Cathode Strip Chambers (CSCs) constitute the primary muon tracking device in the CMS endcaps. Their performance has been evaluated using data taken during a cosmic ray run in fall 2008. Measured noise levels are low, with the number of noisy channels well below 1%. Coordinate resolution was measured for all types of chambers, and fall in the range 47 microns to 243 microns. The efficiencies for local charged track triggers, for hit and for segments reconstruction were measured, and are above 99%. The timing resolution per layer is approximately 5 ns

A Rapid and Sensitive Method for Measuring NAcetylglucosaminidase Activity in Cultured Cells

A rapid and sensitive method to quantitatively assess N-acetylglucosaminidase (NAG) activity in cultured cells is highly desirable for both basic research and clinical studies. NAG activity is deficient in cells from patients with Mucopolysaccharidosis type IIIB (MPS IIIB) due to mutations in NAGLU, the gene that encodes NAG. Currently available techniques for measuring NAG activity in patient-derived cell lines include chromogenic and fluorogenic assays and provide a biochemical method for the diagnosis of MPS IIIB. However, standard protocols require large amounts of cells, cell disruption by sonication or freeze-thawing, and normalization to the cellular protein content, resulting in an error-prone procedure that is material- and time-consuming and that produces highly variable results. Here we report a new procedure for measuring NAG activity in cultured cells. This procedure is based on the use of the fluorogenic NAG substrate, 4- Methylumbelliferyl-2-acetamido-2-deoxy-alpha-D-glucopyranoside (MUG), in a one-step cell assay that does not require cell disruption or post-assay normalization and that employs a low number of cells in 96-well plate format. We show that the NAG one-step cell assay greatly discriminates between wild-type and MPS IIIB patient-derived fibroblasts, thus providing a rapid method for the detection of deficiencies in NAG activity. We also show that the assay is sensitive to changes in NAG activity due to increases in NAGLU expression achieved by either overexpressing the transcription factor EB (TFEB), a master regulator of lysosomal function, or by inducing TFEB activation chemically. Because of its small format, rapidity, sensitivity and reproducibility, the NAG one-step cell assay is suitable for multiple procedures, including the high-throughput screening of chemical libraries to identify modulators of NAG expression, folding and activity, and the investigation of candidate molecules and constructs for applications in enzyme replacement therapy, gene therapy, and combination therapies

Therapy Insight: Parenteral Estrogen treatment for Prostate Cancer—a new dawn for an old therapy

Oral estrogens were the treatment of choice for carcinoma of the prostate for over four decades, but were abandoned because of an excess of cardiovascular and thromboembolic toxicity. It is now recognized that most of this toxicity is related to the first pass portal circulation, which upregulates the hepatic metabolism of hormones, lipids and coagulation proteins. Most of this toxicity can be avoided by parenteral (intramuscular or transdermal) estrogen administration, which avoids hepatic enzyme induction. It also seems that a short-term but modest increase in cardiovascular morbidity (but not mortality) is compensated for by a long-term cardioprotective benefit, which accrues progressively as vascular remodeling develops over time. Parenteral estrogen therapy has the advantage of giving protection against the effects of andropause (similar to the female menopause), which are induced by conventional androgen suppression and include osteoporotic fracture, hot flashes, asthenia and cognitive dysfunction. In addition, parenteral estrogen therapy is significantly cheaper than contemporary endocrine therapy, with substantive economic implications for health providers

Performance of CMS muon reconstruction in pp collision events at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV

The performance of muon reconstruction, identification, and triggering in CMS has been studied using 40 inverse picobarns of data collected in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV at the LHC in 2010. A few benchmark sets of selection criteria covering a wide range of physics analysis needs have been examined. For all considered selections, the efficiency to reconstruct and identify a muon with a transverse momentum pT larger than a few GeV is above 95% over the whole region of pseudorapidity covered by the CMS muon system, abs(eta) < 2.4, while the probability to misidentify a hadron as a muon is well below 1%. The efficiency to trigger on single muons with pT above a few GeV is higher than 90% over the full eta range, and typically substantially better. The overall momentum scale is measured to a precision of 0.2% with muons from Z decays. The transverse momentum resolution varies from 1% to 6% depending on pseudorapidity for muons with pT below 100 GeV and, using cosmic rays, it is shown to be better than 10% in the central region up to pT = 1 TeV. Observed distributions of all quantities are well reproduced by the Monte Carlo simulation.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO

Farmers’ perceptions of climate change : identifying types

Ambitious targets to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture have been set by both national governments and their respective livestock sectors. We hypothesize that farmer self-identity influences their assessment of climate change and their willingness to im- plement measures which address the issue. Perceptions of climate change were determined from 286 beef/sheep farmers and evaluated using principal component analysis (PCA). The analysis elicits two components which evaluate identity (productivism and environmental responsibility), and two components which evaluate behavioral capacity to adopt mitigation and adaptation measures (awareness and risk perception). Subsequent Cluster Analyses reveal four farmer types based on the PCA scores. ‘The Productivist’ and ‘The Countryside Steward’ portray low levels of awareness of climate change, but differ in their motivation to adopt pro-environmental behavior. Conversely, both ‘The Environmentalist’ and ‘The Dejected’ score higher in their awareness of the issue. In addition, ‘The Dejected’ holds a high sense of perceived risk; however, their awareness is not conflated with an explicit understanding of agricultural GHG sources. With the exception of ‘The Environmentalist’, there is an evident disconnect between perceptions of agricultural emission sources and their contribution towards GHG emissions amongst all types. If such linkages are not con- ceptualized, it is unlikely that behavioral capacities will be realized. Effective communication channels which encour- age action should target farmers based on the groupings depicted. Therefore, understanding farmer types through the constructs used in this study can facilitate effective and tai- lored policy development and implementation