Improved model for air pressure due to wind on 2D freak waves in finite depth

This paper presents an improved model for evaluating air pressure acting on 2D freak waves in a finite depth due to the presence of winds. This pressure model is developed by analysing the pressure distribution over freak waves using the QALE-FEM/StarCD approach, which combines the quasi arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian finite element method (QALE-FEM) with the commercial software package StarCD and has been proven to be sufficiently accurate for such cases according to our previous publication Yan and Ma (2010) [8]. In this model for air pressure, the pressure is decomposed into the components related to the local wave profiles and others. By coupling with the QALE-FEM, the accuracy of the pressure model is tested using various cases. The results show that the pressure distribution estimated using this model is close to that computed by using the QALE-FEM/StarCD approach when there is no significant vortex shedding and wave breaking. The accuracy investigation in predicting the freak wave heights and elevations demonstrates that this pressure model is much better than others in the literature so far used for modelling wind effects on freak waves in finite depth

Spatial Guilds in the Serengeti Food Web Revealed by a Bayesian Group Model

Food webs, networks of feeding relationships among organisms, provide fundamental insights into mechanisms that determine ecosystem stability and persistence. Despite long-standing interest in the compartmental structure of food webs, past network analyses of food webs have been constrained by a standard definition of compartments, or modules, that requires many links within compartments and few links between them. Empirical analyses have been further limited by low-resolution data for primary producers. In this paper, we present a Bayesian computational method for identifying group structure in food webs using a flexible definition of a group that can describe both functional roles and standard compartments. The Serengeti ecosystem provides an opportunity to examine structure in a newly compiled food web that includes species-level resolution among plants, allowing us to address whether groups in the food web correspond to tightly-connected compartments or functional groups, and whether network structure reflects spatial or trophic organization, or a combination of the two. We have compiled the major mammalian and plant components of the Serengeti food web from published literature, and we infer its group structure using our method. We find that network structure corresponds to spatially distinct plant groups coupled at higher trophic levels by groups of herbivores, which are in turn coupled by carnivore groups. Thus the group structure of the Serengeti web represents a mixture of trophic guild structure and spatial patterns, in contrast to the standard compartments typically identified in ecological networks. From data consisting only of nodes and links, the group structure that emerges supports recent ideas on spatial coupling and energy channels in ecosystems that have been proposed as important for persistence.Comment: 28 pages, 6 figures (+ 3 supporting), 2 tables (+ 4 supporting

Elastohydrodynamic lubrication of faults

The heat flow paradox provides evidence that a dynamic weakening mechanism may be important in understanding fault friction and rupture. We present here a specific model for dynamic velocity weakening that uses the mechanics of well-studied industrial bearings to explain fault zone processes. An elevated fluid pressure is generated in a thin film of viscous fluid that is sheared between nearly parallel surface. This lubrication pressure supports part of the load, therefore reducing the normal stress and associated friction across the gap. The pressure also elastically deforms the wall rock. The model is parameterized using the Sommerfeld number, which is a measure of the lubrication pressure normalized by the lithostatic load. For typical values of the material properties, slip distance and velocity, the Sommerfeld number suggests that lubrication is an important process. If the lubrication length scales as the slip distance in an earthquake, the frictional stress during dynamically lubricated large earthquakes is 30% less than the friction with only hydrostatic pore pressure. Elastohydrodynamic lubrication also predicts a decrease in high-frequency (>1 Hz) radiation above a critical slip distance of a few meters. This prediction is well matched by the strong motion data from the 1999 Taiwan earthquake. The observed 2 orders of magnitude variation in scaled radiated energy between small (M_w 6) is also predicted by the lubrication model

Socioeconomic inequalities in cancer survival in England after the NHS cancer plan

BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic inequalities in survival were observed for many cancers in England during 1981-1999. The NHS Cancer Plan (2000) aimed to improve survival and reduce these inequalities. This study examines trends in the deprivation gap in cancer survival after implementation of the Plan. MATERIALS AND METHOD: We examined relative survival among adults diagnosed with 1 of 21 common cancers in England during 1996-2006, followed up to 31 December 2007. Three periods were defined: 1996-2000 (before the Cancer Plan), 2001-2003 (initialisation) and 2004-2006 (implementation). We estimated the difference in survival between the most deprived and most affluent groups (deprivation gap) at 1 and 3 years after diagnosis, and the change in the deprivation gap both within and between these periods. RESULTS: Survival improved for most cancers, but inequalities in survival were still wide for many cancers in 2006. Only the deprivation gap in 1-year survival narrowed slightly over time. A majority of the socioeconomic disparities in survival occurred soon after a cancer diagnosis, regardless of the cancer prognosis. CONCLUSION: The recently observed reduction in the deprivation gap was minor and limited to 1-year survival, suggesting that, so far, the Cancer Plan has little effect on those inequalities. Our findings highlight that earlier diagnosis and rapid access to optimal treatment should be ensured for all socioeconomic groups

Tensor Tilt from Primordial B-modes

A primordial cosmic microwave background B-mode is widely considered a "smoking gun" signature of an early period of inflationary expansion. However, competing theories of the origin of structure, including string gases and bouncing cosmologies, also produce primordial tensor perturbations that give rise to a B-mode. These models can be differentiated by the scale dependence of their tensor spectra: inflation predicts a red tilt ($n_T<0$), string gases and loop quantum cosmology predict a blue tilt ($n_T>0$), while a nonsingular matter bounce gives zero tilt ($n_T=0$). We perform a Bayesian analysis to determine how far $|n_T|$ must deviate from zero before a tilt can be detected with current and future B-mode experiments. We find that Planck in conjunction with QUIET (II) will decisively detect $n_T \neq 0$ if $|n_T| > 0.3$, too large to distinguish either single field inflation or string gases from the case $n_T=0$. While a future mission like CMBPol will offer improvement, only an ideal satellite mission will be capable of providing sufficient Bayesian evidence to distinguish between each model considered.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures. Minor edits, references added. Version to appear in Mon. Not. R. Astron. So

Positive association between mammographic breast density and bone mineral density in the Postmenopausal Estrogen/Progestin Interventions Study

INTRODUCTION: Mammographic breast density is a strong independent risk factor for breast cancer. We hypothesized that demonstration of an association between mammographic breast density and bone mineral density (BMD) would suggest a unifying underlying mechanism influencing both breast density and BMD. METHODS: In a cross-sectional analysis of baseline data from the Postmenopausal Estrogen/Progestin Interventions Study (PEPI), participants were aged 45 to 64 years and were at least 1 year postmenopausal. Mammographic breast density (percentage of the breast composed of dense tissue), the outcome, was assessed with a computer-assisted percentage-density method. BMD, the primary predictor, was measured with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Women quitting menopausal hormone therapy to join PEPI were designated recent hormone users. RESULTS: The mean age of the 594 women was 56 years. The average time since menopause was 5.6 years. After adjustment for age, body mass index, and cigarette smoking, in women who were not recent hormone users before trial enrollment (n = 415), mammographic density was positively associated with total hip (P = 0.04) and lumbar (P = 0.08) BMD. Mammographic density of recent hormone users (n = 171) was not significantly related to either total hip (P = 0.51) or lumbar (P = 0.44) BMD. In participants who were not recent hormone users, mammographic density was 4% greater in the highest quartile of total hip BMD than in the lowest. In participants who were not recent hormone users, mammographic density was 5% greater in the highest quartile of lumbar spine BMD than in the lowest. CONCLUSION: Mammographic density and BMD are positively associated in women who have not recently used postmenopausal hormones. A unifying biological mechanism may link mammographic density and BMD. Recent exogenous postmenopausal hormone use may obscure the association between mammographic density and BMD by having a persistent effect on breast tissue

Role of MRI in staging and follow-up of endometrial and cervical cancer:pitfalls and mimickers

Abstract MRI plays important roles in endometrial and cervical cancer assessment, from detection to recurrent disease evaluation. Endometrial cancer (EC) is the most common malignant tumor of the female genital tract in Western countries. EC patients are divided into risk categories based on histopathological tumor type, grade, and myometrial invasion depth. EC is surgically staged using the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) system. Since FIGO (2009) stage correlates with prognosis, preoperative staging is essential for tailored treatment. MRI reveals myometrial invasion depth, which correlates with tumor grade and lymph node metastases, and thus correlates with prognosis. Cervical cancer (CC) is the second most common cancer, and the third leading cause of cancer-related death among females in developing countries. The FIGO Gynecologic Oncology Committee recently revised its CC staging guidelines, allowing staging based on imaging and pathological findings when available. The revised FIGO (2018) staging includes node involvement and thus enables both therapy selection and evaluation, prognosis estimation, and calculation of end results. MRI can accurately assess prognostic indicators, e.g., tumor size, parametrial invasion, pelvic sidewall, and lymph node invasion. Despite these important roles of MRI, radiologists still face challenges due to the technical and interpretation pitfalls of MRI during all phases of endometrial and cervical cancer evaluation. Awareness of mimics that can simulate both cancers is critical. With careful application, functional MRI with DWI and DCE sequences can help establish a correct diagnosis, although it is sometimes necessary to perform biopsy and histopathological analysis

Molecular Phylodynamics of the Heterosexual HIV Epidemic in the United Kingdom

The heterosexual risk group has become the largest HIV infected group in the United Kingdom during the last 10 years, but little is known of the network structure and dynamics of viral transmission in this group. The overwhelming majority of UK heterosexual infections are of non-B HIV subtypes, indicating viruses originating among immigrants from sub-Saharan Africa. The high rate of HIV evolution, combined with the availability of a very high density sample of viral sequences from routine clinical care has allowed the phylodynamics of the epidemic to be investigated for the first time. Sequences of the viral protease and partial reverse transcriptase coding regions from 11,071 patients infected with HIV of non-B subtypes were studied. Of these, 2774 were closely linked to at least one other sequence by nucleotide distance. Including the closest sequences from the global HIV database identified 296 individuals that were in UK-based groups of 3 or more individuals. There were a total of 8 UK-based clusters of 10 or more, comprising 143/2774 (5%) individuals, much lower than the figure of 25% obtained earlier for men who have sex with men (MSM). Sample dates were incorporated into relaxed clock phylogenetic analyses to estimate the dates of internal nodes. From the resulting time-resolved phylogenies, the internode lengths, used as estimates of maximum transmission intervals, had a median of 27 months overall, over twice as long as obtained for MSM (14 months), with only 2% of transmissions occurring in the first 6 months after infection. This phylodynamic analysis of non-B subtype HIV sequences representing over 40% of the estimated UK HIV-infected heterosexual population has revealed heterosexual HIV transmission in the UK is clustered, but on average in smaller groups and is transmitted with slower dynamics than among MSM. More effective intervention to restrict the epidemic may therefore be feasible, given effective diagnosis programmes