What causes the irregular cycle of the atmospheric tape recorder signal in HCN?

Variations in the mixing ratio of long-lived trace gases entering the stratosphere in the tropics are carried upward with the rising air with the signal being observable throughout the tropical lower stratosphere. This phenomenon, referred to as "atmospheric tape recorder" has previously been observed for water vapor, CO2, and CO which exhibit an annual cycle. Recently, based on Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) satellite measurements, the tape recorder signal has been observed for hydrogen cyanide (HCN) but with an approximately two-year period. Here we report on a model simulation of the HCN tape recorder for the time period 2002-2008 using the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS). The model can reproduce the observed pattern of the HCN tape recorder signal if time-resolved emissions from fires in Indonesia are used as lower boundary condition. This finding indicates that inter-annual variations in biomass burning in Indonesia, which are strongly influenced by El Nino events, control the HCN tape recorder signal. A longer time series of tropical HCN data will probably exhibit an irregular cycle rather than a regular biannual cycle. Citation: Pommrich, R., R. Muller, J.-U. Grooss, G. Gunther, P. Konopka, M. Riese, A. Heil, M. Schultz, H.-C. Pumphrey, and K. A. Walker (2010), What causes the irregular cycle of the atmospheric tape recorder signal in HCN?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L16805, doi:10.1029/2010GL044056

EOS MLS observations of dehydration in the 2004-2005 polar winters

We prove various estimates for the first eigenvalue of the magnetic Dirichlet Laplacian on a bounded domain in two dimensions. When the magnetic field is constant, we give lower and upper bounds in terms of geometric quantities of the domain. We furthermore prove a lower bound for the first magnetic Neumann eigenvalue in the case of constant field.Comment: 19 page

Resistance to stem rust race TTKS in wheat relative Haynaldia villosa

Tese de doutoramento em Território, Risco e Políticas Públicas, apresentada ao Instituto de Investigação Interdisciplinar da Universidade de CoimbraFor several decades critical infrastructure management belonged to engineering domains; however a new paradigm has emerged - socio-technical paradigm - infrastructures are critical because they have value for society and for a culture. Thus, critical infrastructure operate not only according to technical specifications but also according to constraints imposed by the social environment. The problem is how to integrate in the same model the linkages between infrastructure and social systems. The main goal of this thesis is to propose a new model the Structural Functional Risk Model – SFRM- a model that identifies the roads more vulnerable to interruptions, based on an integrated approach of the structural and functional component of the road network- a critical infrastructure responsible for connecting people, assets and services separated in space. The model is applied to real road network in a multiscalar perspective, the regional context and the municipal context. The case studies are the Central Region of Portugal and Coimbra, a municipality located in this Region. The system used as example focus the road network as element of connection and access between the parishes and the nearest Hospital – a critical infrastructure of the health sector. The methodological approach is composed by three main phases: firstly, the road network is assessed in a structural perspective based on the application of a new approach of the biclustering technique; the following phase is focused on the evaluation of the road network in a functional perspective based on a modified gravity model; the last phase is focused on the integration of structural and functional perspective, which resulted the SFRM. Scenario- based approaches are also relevant in this work, focusing questions such: what can happen? If it does happen, what are the consequences? A scenario-based approach can be a useful support to a more informed, strategic action. Thus, through the work there will be simulated and analyzed road interruption scenarios. The results confirmed the importance of an integrated approach of the structural and functional components. In the assessment of the road network structural component the results pointed that the Biclusters with highest connectivity are mainly located in the II areas economically most dynamic, such the Coastal zone, and the Biclusters with lowest connectivity are mainly located in areas less dynamic, such Beira Transmontana. So, even when the analysis is focused on a network transformed into nodes and edges it is possible to identify relations with the territorial dynamics. The results of the road network functional component assessment point to a significant resources concentration in Coimbra municipality; in the regional context identified significant accessibility gaps across geographical areas and population groups; even in a normal scenario there are significant disparities in terms of accessibility to health care, which can get worse in a road network interruption scenario. From the integration of the structural and functional component of the road network resulted the SFRM, which is a step forward; quantifying the share of accountability of each of the components in the road level of vulnerability. The results demonstrate that territorial constraints play a fundamental role in critical infrastructure management; the strategies set in this domain should take into account the specificities of each territory and population characteristics. This thesis can be seen as step forward in the consolidation of the socio-technical paradigm as well as a tool for the definition of efficient of prevention measures and the definition of strategies aiming quick recovery of the system in case of a disruptive event.Durante várias décadas a gestão das infra-estruturas críticas pertenceu ao domínio da engenharia; contudo surgiu um novo paradigma – o paradigma socio-técnico – as infraestruturas são críticas pelo valor que representam para a sociedade e para a cultura. Neste sentido, o funcionamento das infra-estruturas críticas depende não só de especificidades técnicas, mas também é condicionado pelo meio social. O problema reside em saber como integrar no mesmo modelo as ligações existentes entre as infraestruturas e os sistemas sociais. O principal objetivo deste trabalho é propor um novo modelo - Modelo de Risco Estrutural e Funcional – MREF- que identifica as vias mais vulneráveis a interrupções, numa abordagem integrada da componente estrutural e funcional da rede viária – uma infra-estrutura crítica que tem como função ligar pessoas, bens e serviços separados no espaço. O MRFE é aplicado a uma rede viária real numa perspetiva multiescalar, os casos de estudo são a Região Centro de Portugal e Coimbra, um município localizado nesta Região. O sistema de análise, usado como exemplo, focase na rede viária como elemento de ligação e acesso entre as freguesias e os Hospitais – importantes infra-estruturas críticas do sector da saúde. A metodologia usada neste trabalho é constituída por três fases: numa primeira fase a rede viária é avaliada sob o ponto de vista estrutural com base numa nova abordagem da técnica de biclustering; a fase seguinte foca-se na avaliação da rede viária sob o ponto de vista funcional com base num modelo gravitacional adaptado aos objetivos do presente trabalho; a última fase foca-se na integração da avaliação estrutural com a funcional da qual resulta o MRFE. As abordagens com base em cenários também assumem relevância neste trabalho, focando questões como: O que pode acontecer? Caso aconteça, quais são as consequências? Os resultados desta abordagem contribuem para ação mais informada e estratégica. Neste sentido, ao longo do trabalho serão apresentados e avaliados vários cenários de interrupção de vias. Os resultados demonstram a importância de uma abordagem integrada da componente funcional e da estrutural. Aquando da avaliação da rede viária sob o ponto de vista estrutural os resultados indicaram que os biclusters com maior nível de conectividade se IV encontram essencialmente localizados nas áreas economicamente mais dinâmicas – como a zona costeira, enquanto os biclusters com menor nível de conectividade se encontram essencialmente localizados nas áreas economicamente mais deprimidas – como a Beira Transmontana. Conclui-se que mesmo quando a análise se foca na rede viária enquanto conjunto de nós e ligações é possível identificar relações com a dinâmica territorial. Os resultados da avaliação da rede viária sob o ponto de vista funcional indicam uma significativa polarização de recursos no município de Coimbra, no contexto regional foram identificadas expressivas diferenças em termos de áreas geográficas e grupos populacionais; estas significativas disparidades poderão ser agravadas num cenário de interrupção de vias. O MREF resulta de uma abordagem integrada das componentes estruturais e funcionais da rede viária, um modelo que pode ser visto como um passo em frente uma vez que são definidas e quantificadas as variáveis que influenciam a vulnerabilidade da rede viária. Os resultados demonstram que as condicionantes territoriais devem constituir uma componente fundamental na gestão das infra-estruturas críticas; as estratégias definidas neste âmbito devem ter em atenção as especificidades do território e as características da população. O presente trabalho pode ser visto como contributo para a consolidação do paradigma sociotécnico assim como um instrumento para a definição de medidas de prevenção eficientes e definição de estratégias que tenham em vista o rápido restabelecimento do funcionamento do sistema num cenário disruptivo.Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia - SFRH/BD/70952/201

The UARS microwave limb sounder version 5 data set: Theory, characterization, and validation

Nitric acid (HNO3) is a major player in processes controlling the springtime depletion of polar ozone. It is the main constituent of the Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSCs) and a primary reservoir for reactive nitrogen. Potential variations in the stratospheric circulation and temperature may alter the extent and duration of PSCs activity, influencing the future ozone levels significantly. Monitoring HNO3 and its long-term variability, especially in polar region, is then crucial for better understanding issues related to ozone decline and expected recovery. In this study we present an intercomparison between ground based HNO3 measurements, carried out by means of the Ground-Based Millimeter-wave Spectrometer (GBMS), and two satellite data sets produced by the two NASA/JPL Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) experiments. In particular, we compare UARS MLS measurements (1991-1999) with those carried out by the GBMS at South Pole, Antarctica (90°S), Fall of 1993 and 1995. A similar intercomparison is made between Aura MLS HNO3 observations (2004 - to date) and GBMS measurements obtained during the period February 2004 - March 2007, at the mid-latitudes/high altitudes station of Testa Grigia (45.9° N, 7.7° E, elev. 3500 m), and during polar winters 2008/09 and 2009/2010 at Thule Air Base (76.5°N 68.8°W), Greenland. We assess systematic differences between GBMS and both UARS and Aura HNO3 data sets at seven potential temperature levels (θ) spanning the range 465 – 960 K. The UARS data set advected to the South Pole shows a low bias, within 20% for all θ levels but the 960 K, with respect to GBMS measurements. A very good agreement, within 5%, is obtained between Aura and GBMS observations at Testa Grigia, while larger differences, possibly due to latitude dependent effects, are observed over Thule. These differences are under further investigations but a preliminary comparison over Thule among MLS v3, GBMS, and ACE-FTS measurements suggests that GBMS measurements carried out during winter 2009 might not be reliable. These comparisons have been performed in the framework of the NASA JPL GOZCARDS project, which is aimed at developing a long-term, global data record of the relevant stratospheric constituents in the context of ozone decline. GBMS has been selected in GOZCARDS since its HNO3 dataset, although sampling different latitudes in different years, is the only one spanning a sufficiently long time interval for cross-calibrating HNO3 measurements by the UARS and Aura MLS experiments

The impact of the mixing properties within the Antarctic stratospheric vortex on ozone loss in spring

Calculations of equivalent length from an artificial advected tracer provide new insight into the isentropic transport processes occurring within the Antarctic stratospheric vortex. These calculations show two distinct regions of approximately equal area: a strongly mixed vortex core and a broad ring of weakly mixed air extending out to the vortex boundary. This broad ring of vortex air remains isolated from the core between late winter and midspring. Satellite measurements of stratospheric H2O confirm that the isolation lasts until at least mid-October. A three-dimensional chemical transport model simulation of the Antarctic ozone hole quantifies the ozone loss within this ring and demonstrates its isolation. In contrast to the vortex core, ozone loss in the weakly mixed broad ring is not complete. The reasons are twofold. First, warmer temperatures in the broad ring prevent continuous polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation and the associated chemical processing (i.e., the conversion of unreactive chlorine into reactive forms). Second, the isolation prevents ozone-rich air from the broad ring mixing with chemically processed air from the vortex core. If the stratosphere continues to cool, this will lead to increased PSC formation and more complete chemical processing in the broad ring. Despite the expected decline in halocarbons, sensitivity studies suggest that this mechanism will lead to enhanced ozone loss in the weakly mixed region, delaying the future recovery of the ozone hole

Using cloud ice flux to parametrise large-scale lightning

Lightning is an important natural source of nitrogen oxide especially in the middle and upper troposphere. Hence, it is essential to represent lightning in chemistry transport and coupled chemistry climate models. Using ERA-Interim meteorological reanalysis data we compare the lightning flash density distributions produced using several existing lightning parametrisations, as well as a new parametrisation developed on the basis of upward cloud ice flux at 440 hPa. The use of ice flux forms a link to the non-inductive charging mechanism of thunderstorms. Spatial and temporal distributions of lightning flash density are compared to tropical and subtropical observations for 2007-2011 from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. The well-used lightning flash parametrisation based on cloud-top height has large biases but the derived annual total flash density has a better spatial correlation with the LIS observations than other existing parametrisations. A comparison of flash density simulated by the different schemes shows that the cloud-top height parametrisation has many more instances of moderate flash densities and fewer low and high extremes compared to the other parametrisations. Other studies in the literature have shown that this feature of the cloud-top height parametrisation is in contrast to lightning observations over certain regions. Our new ice flux parametrisation shows a clear improvement over all the existing parametrisations with lower root mean square errors (RMSEs) and better spatial correlations with the observations for distributions of annual total, and seasonal and interannual variations. The greatest improvement with the new parametrisation is a more realistic representation of the zonal distribution with a better balance between tropical and subtropical lightning flash estimates. The new parametrisation is appropriate for testing in chemistry transport and chemistry climate models that use a lightning parametrisation

Coincidence isometries of a shifted square lattice

We consider the coincidence problem for the square lattice that is translated by an arbitrary vector. General results are obtained about the set of coincidence isometries and the coincidence site lattices of a shifted square lattice by identifying the square lattice with the ring of Gaussian integers. To illustrate them, we calculate the set of coincidence isometries, as well as generating functions for the number of coincidence site lattices and coincidence isometries, for specific examples.Comment: 10 pages, 1 figure; paper presented at Aperiodic 2009 (Liverpool