New evidence on the ability of asset prices and real economic activity forecast errors to predict inflation forecast errors.

This paper investigates the impact of both asset and macroeconomic forecast errors on inflation forecast errors in the USA by making use of a two‐regime model. The findings document a significant contribution of both types of forecast errors to the explanation of inflation forecast errors, with the pass‐through being stronger when these errors move within the high‐volatility regime.N/

Does Banque de France control inflation and unemployment?

We re-estimate statistical properties and predictive power of a set of Phillips curves, which are expressed as linear and lagged relationships between the rates of inflation, unemployment, and change in labour force. For France, several relationships were estimated eight years ago. The change rate of labour force was used as a driving force of inflation and unemployment within the Phillips curve framework. The set of nested models starts with a simplistic version without autoregressive terms and one lagged term of explanatory variable. The lag is determined empirically together with all coefficients. The model is estimated using the Boundary Element Method (BEM) with the least squares method applied to the integral solutions of the differential equations. All models include one structural break might be associated with revisions to definitions and measurement procedures in the 1980s and 1990s as well as with the change in monetary policy in 1994-1995. For the GDP deflator, our original model provided a root mean squared forecast error (RMSFE) of 1.0% per year at a four-year horizon for the period between 1971 and 2004. The rate of CPI inflation is predicted with RMSFE=1.5% per year. For the naive (no change) forecast, RMSFE at the same time horizon is 2.95% and 3.3% per year, respectively. Our model outperforms the naive one by a factor of 2 to 3. The relationships for inflation were successfully tested for cointegration. We have formally estimated several vector error correction (VEC) models for two measures of inflation. At a four year horizon, the estimated VECMs provide significant statistical improvements on the results obtained by the BEM: RMSFE=0.8% per year for the GDP deflator and ~1.2% per year for CPI. For a two year horizon, the VECMs improve RMSFEs by a factor of 2, with the smallest RMSFE=0.5% per year for the GDP deflator.Comment: 25 pages, 12 figure

On the instability of long-run money demand and the welfare cost of inflation in the U.S.

We evaluate the policy implications of measuring the welfare cost of inflation accounting for instabilities in the long-run money demand for the U.S. over the period 1900-2013. We extend the analysis and reassess the results reported in Lucas (2000) and Ireland (2009), also considering the recent theoretical contributions of Lucas and Nicolini (2015) and Berentsen et al. (2015). Breaks in the long-run money demand give rise to regime-dependent welfare cost estimates. We find that the welfare cost is about 0.1% of annual income over 1976-2013, as compared to 0.8% over 1945-1975. Overall, these values are substantially lower than those reported in the literature

SÍTIO LINHA VÁRZEA – UMA NOVA ASSEMBLÉIA FOSSILÍFERA DO TRIÁSSICO MÉDIO DO SUL DO BRASIL

A new fossiliferous assemblage is characterized for the Santa Maria Formation (Paraná Basin). The fossil content is represented by small to medium dicynodonts, constituted by cranial material and isolated pieces of specimens in different ontogenetic stages, cranial and post-cranial material of cynodonts, as well as several ichnologic materials, represented by coprolites of herbivorous and carnivorous forms. A preliminary analysis of the burial history and fossil preservation mode shows a variation on the sedimentation rate of these floodplain deposits.Uma nova localidade fossilífera da Formação Santa Maria (Bacia do Paraná) é aqui caracterizada. Seu conteúdo fóssil está representado predominantemente por formas diminutas a medianas de dicinodontes, constituídas por material craniano e elementos póscranianos de vários espécimens, evidenciando estágios ontogenéticos distintos; material craniano e pós-craniano de cinodontes, bem como materiais icnológicos, representados por coprólitos resultantes de formas herbívoras e carnívoras. Uma análise preliminar da história de soterramento e preservação destes fósseis permite identificar uma variação nas taxas de sedimentação nos depósitos de planície de inundação analisados

Conventional and unconventional approaches to exchange rate modelling and assessment

We examine the relative predictive power of the sticky price monetary model, uncovered interest parity, and a transformation of net exports and net foreign assets. In addition to bringing Gourinchas and Rey's new approach and more recent data to bear, we implement the Clark–West procedure for testing the significance of out-of-sample forecasts. The interest rate parity relation holds better at long horizons and the net exports variable does well in predicting exchange rates at short horizons in sample. In out-of-sample forecasts, we find evidence that our proxy for Gourinchas and Rey's measure of external imbalances outperforms a random walk at short horizons as do some of the other models, although no single model uniformly beats the random walk forecast. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/57920/1/354_ftp.pd

The Cronobacter genus: ubiquity and diversity

Members of the Cronobacter genus (formerly Enterobacter sakazakii) have become associated with neonatal infections and in particular contaminated reconstituted infant formula. However this is only one perspective of the organism since the majority of infections are in the adult population, and the organism has been isolated from the enteral feeding tubes of neonates on non-formula diets. In recent years methods of detection from food and environmental sources have improved, though accurate identification has been problematic. The need for robust identification is essential in order to implement recent Codex Alimentarius Commission (2008) and related microbiological criteria for powdered infant formula (PIF; intended target age 0-6 months). Genomic analysis of emergent pathogens is of considerable advantage in both improving detection methods, and understanding the evolution of virulence. One ecosystem for Cronobacter is on plant material which may enable the organism to resist desiccation, adhere to surfaces, and resist some antimicrobial agents. These traits may also confer survival mechanisms of relevance in food manufacturing and also virulence mechanisms