Flexible Exchange Rate and Excess Capital Mobility

macroeconomics, exchange rates, excess capital

Two Notes on Exchange Rate Rules and on the Real Value of External Debt

This report presents two unrelated, short papers on exchange rate rules and on the real value of the external debt. The paper on exchange rate policy uses the Taylor model of overlapping, long term wage contracts to ask whether accommodating or PPP oriented exchange rate policies tend to stabilize output. In earlier work I had shown that exchange rate indexing, while destabilizing prices enhances the stability of output. The result is qualified hereby showing that the exchange rate not only affects aggregate demand directly but operates also, through the cost of imported intermediates, on the price level. It is shown that unless monetary policy is sufficiently accommodating this latter effect may dominate with the consequence that increased exchange rate indexation reduces output stability .The paper on the real value of external debt poses the question how to integrate external debt holdings in the traditional framework used to evaluate the effects on real income of changes in world prices. It is shown that integrating debt service liabilities in a comprehensive income measure makes real disposable income equal to the value of output less the real value of real interest payments on the external debt. Furthermore, with the CPI being the appropriate deflator for foreign debt, a rise in export prices raises income in proportion to exports while a rise in import prices lowers real income in proportion to Imports. The proper accounting of debt in a comprehensive income framework, noting the intertemporal budget constraints, thus restores the conventional treatment of the income effects of price changes.

The New International Architecture

In 1998 Rüdiger Dornbusch gave the Munich Lectures in Economics entitled “International Financial Crises”. The CES Academic Council awarded him the prize and title “Distinguished CES Fellow” for his outstanding work on the monetary theory of foreign trade.Rüdiger Dornbusch passed away on July 25, 2002, before he was able to finalize the manuscript of his most stimulating and thought-provoking lectures. The manuscript was scheduled to appear in the CESifo book series with MIT Press. This working paper contains the introduction which was distributed at the lectures. CES would like to make this document available to the scientific community. There is a video presentation of the lectures on the CES website (www.CESifo.de), and a leaflet is also available with the introductory speech by Stanley Fisher.International Finance, Financial Crises, IMF

Stopping Hyperinflation: Lessons from the German Inflation Experience of the 1920s

The special role of money in the hyper inflation process, and particularly in the stabilization phase, has now been reconsidered in a bestselling essay by Sargent. The message is that credible fiscal stabilizationis the sine qua non of stopping inflation. This is definitely not viewed as being in conflict with the monetary hypothesis, but it does represent a shift of emphasis. We draw attention to a third aspect of the hyperinflation process, and the stablization, namely exchange rate and interest rate policy. Even though a government may accomplish all the right measures in terms of budget stablization or control of money creation, there remains the problem of making these measures credible and hence being able to actually achieve them. We argue that exchange rate and interest rate policy in the transition have traditionally formed the vehicle for establishing that credibility by a de facto stablization. We make that point by discussing the events of the German hyperinflation. In that case the stablization was a much more diffuse, accidental matter than a reading of the classics reveals with exchange rate policy playing a key role. Immensely high interest rates in the face of a sharply appreciating free market exchange rate wiped out adverse speculation thus helping to establish stablization. The real exchange rate sharply appreciated in the final stage and persisted at an appreciated level well into the post-stabilization phase. It reflects the reverse of the coin of real depreciation in the capital flight phase.

Intergenerational and International Trade

The paper sets out an overlapping generations model in an open economy context. In the absence of productive capital a real consol is the vehicle for intertemporal consumption smoothing. The presence of a long term asset implies that the anticipated future path of the economy, through the term structure of interest, affects current generations. The model is applied to issues in the closed and open economy. These include the effects of debt issue on asset prices and welfare, the effect of present or anticipated future income growth, permanent or transitory. In the open economy context we investigate the welfare and current account effects of income changes on debt issue. The role of international differences in risk aversion is studied.

The adjustment mechanism: theory and problems

Foreign exchange rates ; International trade ; Econometric models

Flexible Exchange Rates and Interdependence

The paper was prepared for the NBER-IMF conference on Exchange Rate Policy and Interdependence. It reviews the experience with flexible exchange rates and the main policy alternatives that have been suggested. The theoretical part develops a modern open economy macro model with an emphasis on capital mobility, real and nominal wage stickiness and expectations. The impact of disturbances is discussed in terms of the underlying structure, in particular, the relative role of real and nominal inflexibility. Among the main policy alternatives the paper reviews the McKinnon proposal for world monetarism, and the band proposal. Both of these schemes are found unsatisfactory in coping with the chief problem of the current systems namely how to cope with the transition to low inflation. The alternative of capital controls, likewise, would not avoid the adverse consequences of monetary stabilization it would only influence the particular details of the international transmission.