Integration of airborne and ground observations of nitryl chloride in the Seoul metropolitan area and the implications on regional oxidation capacity during KORUS-AQ 2016

Nitryl chloride (ClNO2) is a radical reservoir species that releases chlorine radicals upon photolysis. An integrated analysis of the impact of ClNO2 on regional photochemistry in the Seoul metropolitan area (SMA) during the Korea-United States Air Quality Study (KORUS-AQ) 2016 field campaign is presented. Comprehensive multiplatform observations were conducted aboard the NASA DC-8 and at two ground sites (Olympic Park, OP; Taehwa Research Forest, TRF), representing an urbanized area and a forested suburban region, respectively. Positive correlations between daytime Cl2 and ClNO2 were observed at both sites, the slope of which was dependent on O3 levels. The possible mechanisms are explored through box model simulations constrained with observations. The overall diurnal variations in ClNO2 at both sites appeared similar but the nighttime variations were systematically different. For about half of the observation days at the OP site the level of ClNO2 increased at sunset but rapidly decreased at around midnight. On the other hand, high levels were observed throughout the night at the TRF site. Significant levels of ClNO2 were observed at both sites for 4-5 h after sunrise. Airborne observations, box model calculations, and back-trajectory analysis consistently show that these high levels of ClNO2 in the morning are likely from vertical or horizontal transport of air masses from the west. Box model results show that chlorine-radical-initiated chemistry can impact the regional photochemistry by elevating net chemical production rates of ozone by 25% in the morning

HO_x chemistry during INTEX-A 2004: Observation, model calculation, and comparison with previous studies

OH and HO_2 were measured with the Airborne Tropospheric Hydrogen Oxides Sensor (ATHOS) as part of a large measurement suite from the NASA DC-8 aircraft during the Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment-A (INTEX-A). This mission, which was conducted mainly over North America and the western Atlantic Ocean in summer 2004, was an excellent test of atmospheric oxidation chemistry. The HOx results from INTEX-A are compared to those from previous campaigns and to results for other related measurements from INTEX-A. Throughout the troposphere, observed OH was generally 0.95 of modeled OH; below 8 km, observed HO_2 was generally 1.20 of modeled HO_2. This observed-to-modeled comparison is similar to that for TRACE-P, another midlatitude study for which the median observed-to-modeled ratio was 1.08 for OH and 1.34 for HO_2, and to that for PEM-TB, a tropical study for which the median observed-to-modeled ratio was 1.17 for OH and 0.97 for HO_2. HO_2 behavior above 8 km was markedly different. The observed-to-modeled HO_2 ratio increased from ∼1.2 at 8 km to ∼3 at 11 km with the observed-to-modeled ratio correlating with NO. Above 8 km, the observed-to-modeled HO_2 and observed NO were both considerably greater than observations from previous campaigns. In addition, the observed-to-modeled HO_2/OH, which is sensitive to cycling reactions between OH and HO_2, increased from ∼1.5 at 8 km to almost 3.5 at 11 km. These discrepancies suggest a large unknown HO_x source and additional reactants that cycle HO_x from OH to HO_2. In the continental planetary boundary layer, the observed-to-modeled OH ratio increased from 1 when isoprene was less than 0.1 ppbv to over 4 when isoprene was greater than 2 ppbv, suggesting that forests throughout the United States are emitting unknown HO_x sources. Progress in resolving these discrepancies requires a focused research activity devoted to further examination of possible unknown OH sinks and HO_x sources

Comparison of the physical and geotechnical properties of gas-hydrate-bearing sediments from offshore India and other gas-hydrate-reservoir systems

This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Marine and Petroleum Geology 58A (2014): 139-167, doi:10.1016/j.marpetgeo.2014.07.024.The sediment characteristics of hydrate-bearing reservoirs profoundly affect the formation, distribution, and morphology of gas hydrate. The presence and type of gas, porewater chemistry, fluid migration, and subbottom temperature may govern the hydrate formation process, but it is the host sediment that commonly dictates final hydrate habit, and whether hydrate may be economically developed. In this paper, the physical properties of hydrate-bearing regions offshore eastern India (Krishna-Godavari and Mahanadi Basins) and the Andaman Islands, determined from Expedition NGHP-01 cores, are compared to each other, well logs, and published results of other hydrate reservoirs. Properties from the hydrate-free Kerala-Konkan basin off the west coast of India are also presented. Coarser-grained reservoirs (permafrost-related and marine) may contain high gas-hydrate-pore saturations, while finer-grained reservoirs may contain low-saturation disseminated or more complex gas-hydrates, including nodules, layers, and high-angle planar and rotational veins. However, even in these fine-grained sediments, gas hydrate preferentially forms in coarser sediment or fractures, when present. The presence of hydrate in conjunction with other geologic processes may be responsible for sediment porosity being nearly uniform for almost 500 m off the Andaman Islands. Properties of individual NGHP-01 wells and regional trends are discussed in detail. However, comparison of marine and permafrost-related Arctic reservoirs provides insight into the inter-relationships and common traits between physical properties and the morphology of gas-hydrate reservoirs regardless of location. Extrapolation of properties from one location to another also enhances our understanding of gas-hydrate reservoir systems. Grain size and porosity effects on permeability are critical, both locally to trap gas and regionally to provide fluid flow to hydrate reservoirs. Index properties corroborate more advanced consolidation and triaxial strength test results and can be used for predicting behavior in other NGHP-01 regions. Pseudo-overconsolidation is present near the seafloor and is underlain by underconsolidation at depth at some NGHP-01 locations.This work was supported by the Coastal and Marine Geology, and Energy Programs of the U.S. Geological Survey. Partial support for this research was provided by Interagency Agreement DE-FE0002911 between the USGS Gas Hydrates Project and the U.S. Department of Energy's Methane Hydrates R&D Program

Brane-World Gravity

The observable universe could be a 1+3-surface (the "brane") embedded in a 1+3+\textit{d}-dimensional spacetime (the "bulk"), with Standard Model particles and fields trapped on the brane while gravity is free to access the bulk. At least one of the \textit{d} extra spatial dimensions could be very large relative to the Planck scale, which lowers the fundamental gravity scale, possibly even down to the electroweak ($\sim$ TeV) level. This revolutionary picture arises in the framework of recent developments in M theory. The 1+10-dimensional M theory encompasses the known 1+9-dimensional superstring theories, and is widely considered to be a promising potential route to quantum gravity. At low energies, gravity is localized at the brane and general relativity is recovered, but at high energies gravity "leaks" into the bulk, behaving in a truly higher-dimensional way. This introduces significant changes to gravitational dynamics and perturbations, with interesting and potentially testable implications for high-energy astrophysics, black holes, and cosmology. Brane-world models offer a phenomenological way to test some of the novel predictions and corrections to general relativity that are implied by M theory. This review analyzes the geometry, dynamics and perturbations of simple brane-world models for cosmology and astrophysics, mainly focusing on warped 5-dimensional brane-worlds based on the Randall--Sundrum models. We also cover the simplest brane-world models in which 4-dimensional gravity on the brane is modified at \emph{low} energies -- the 5-dimensional Dvali--Gabadadze--Porrati models. Then we discuss co-dimension two branes in 6-dimensional models.Comment: A major update of Living Reviews in Relativity 7:7 (2004) "Brane-World Gravity", 119 pages, 28 figures, the update contains new material on RS perturbations, including full numerical solutions of gravitational waves and scalar perturbations, on DGP models, and also on 6D models. A published version in Living Reviews in Relativit

Predicting Inactive Conformations of Protein Kinases Using Active Structures: Conformational Selection of Type-II Inhibitors

Protein kinases have been found to possess two characteristic conformations in their activation-loops: the active DFG-in conformation and the inactive DFG-out conformation. Recently, it has been very interesting to develop type-II inhibitors which target the DFG-out conformation and are more specific than the type-I inhibitors binding to the active DFG-in conformation. However, solving crystal structures of kinases with the DFG-out conformation remains a challenge, and this seriously hampers the application of the structure-based approaches in development of novel type-II inhibitors. To overcome this limitation, here we present a computational approach for predicting the DFG-out inactive conformation using the DFG-in active structures, and develop related conformational selection protocols for the uses of the predicted DFG-out models in the binding pose prediction and virtual screening of type-II ligands. With the DFG-out models, we predicted the binding poses for known type-II inhibitors, and the results were found in good agreement with the X-ray crystal structures. We also tested the abilities of the DFG-out models to recognize their specific type-II inhibitors by screening a database of small molecules. The AUC (area under curve) results indicated that the predicted DFG-out models were selective toward their specific type-II inhibitors. Therefore, the computational approach and protocols presented in this study are very promising for the structure-based design and screening of novel type-II kinase inhibitors

Short-Snouted Toothless Ichthyosaur from China Suggests Late Triassic Diversification of Suction Feeding Ichthyosaurs

Ichthyosaurs were an important group of Mesozoic marine reptiles and existed from the Early Triassic to the early Late Cretaceous. Despite a great diversity in body shapes and feeding adaptations, all share greatly enlarged eyes, an elongated rostrum with numerous conical teeth, and a streamlined body.. may be linked to the Late Triassic minimum in atmospheric oxygen

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions