Estimates of daily ground-level NO2 concentrations in China based on big data and machine learning approaches

Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is one of the most important atmospheric pollutants. However, current ground-level NO2 concentration data are lack of either high-resolution coverage or full coverage national wide, due to the poor quality of source data and the computing power of the models. To our knowledge, this study is the first to estimate the ground-level NO2 concentration in China with national coverage as well as relatively high spatiotemporal resolution (0.25 degree; daily intervals) over the newest past 6 years (2013-2018). We advanced a Random Forest model integrated K-means (RF-K) for the estimates with multi-source parameters. Besides meteorological parameters, satellite retrievals parameters, we also, for the first time, introduce socio-economic parameters to assess the impact by human activities. The results show that: (1) the RF-K model we developed shows better prediction performance than other models, with cross-validation R2 = 0.64 (MAPE = 34.78%). (2) The annual average concentration of NO2 in China showed a weak increasing trend . While in the economic zones such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta, the NO2 concentration there even decreased or remained unchanged, especially in spring. Our dataset has verified that pollutant controlling targets have been achieved in these areas. With mapping daily nationwide ground-level NO2 concentrations, this study provides timely data with high quality for air quality management for China. We provide a universal model framework to quickly generate a timely national atmospheric pollutants concentration map with a high spatial-temporal resolution, based on improved machine learning methods

Disentangling land model uncertainty via Matrix-based Ensemble Model Inter-comparison Platform (MEMIP)

Background Large uncertainty in modeling land carbon (C) uptake heavily impedes the accurate prediction of the global C budget. Identifying the uncertainty sources among models is crucial for model improvement yet has been difficult due to multiple feedbacks within Earth System Models (ESMs). Here we present a Matrix-based Ensemble Model Inter-comparison Platform (MEMIP) under a unified model traceability framework to evaluate multiple soil organic carbon (SOC) models. Using the MEMIP, we analyzed how the vertically resolved soil biogeochemistry structure influences SOC prediction in two soil organic matter (SOM) models. By comparing the model outputs from the C-only and CN modes, the SOC differences contributed by individual processes and N feedback between vegetation and soil were explicitly disentangled. Results Results showed that the multi-layer models with a vertically resolved structure predicted significantly higher SOC than the single layer models over the historical simulation (1900–2000). The SOC difference between the multi-layer models was remarkably higher than between the single-layer models. Traceability analysis indicated that over 80% of the SOC increase in the multi-layer models was contributed by the incorporation of depth-related processes, while SOC differences were similarly contributed by the processes and N feedback between models with the same soil depth representation. Conclusions The output suggested that feedback is a non-negligible contributor to the inter-model difference of SOC prediction, especially between models with similar process representation. Further analysis with TRENDY v7 and more extensive MEMIP outputs illustrated the potential important role of multi-layer structure to enlarge the current ensemble spread and the necessity of more detail model decomposition to fully disentangle inter-model differences. We stressed the importance of analyzing ensemble outputs from the fundamental model structures, and holding a holistic view in understanding the ensemble uncertainty

Microbial carbon use efficiency promotes global soil carbon storage

Soils store more carbon than other terrestrial ecosystems$^{1,2}$. How soil organic carbon (SOC) forms and persists remains uncertain$^{1,3}$, which makes it challenging to understand how it will respond to climatic change$^{3,4}$. It has been suggested that soil microorganisms play an important role in SOC formation, preservation and loss$^{5–7}$. Although microorganisms affect the accumulation and loss of soil organic matter through many pathways$^{4,6,8–11}$, microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE) is an integrative metric that can capture the balance of these processes$^{12,13}$. Although CUE has the potential to act as a predictor of variation in SOC storage, the role of CUE in SOC persistence remains unresolved$^{7,14,15}$. Here we examine the relationship between CUE and the preservation of SOC, and interactions with climate, vegetation and edaphic properties, using a combination of global-scale datasets, a microbial-process explicit model, data assimilation, deep learning and meta-analysis. We find that CUE is at least four times as important as other evaluated factors, such as carbon input, decomposition or vertical transport, in determining SOC storage and its spatial variation across the globe. In addition, CUE shows a positive correlation with SOC content. Our findings point to microbial CUE as a major determinant of global SOC storage. Understanding the microbial processes underlying CUE and their environmental dependence may help the prediction of SOC feedback to a changing climate

Microbial carbon use efficiency promotes global soil carbon storage

Funding Information: We thank H. Yang, M. Schrumpf, T. Wutzler, R. Zheng and H. Ma for their comments and suggestions on this study. This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42125503) and the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2020YFA0608000, 2020YFA0607900 and 2021YFC3101600). F.T. was financially supported by China Scholarship Council during his visit at Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (201906210489) and the Max-Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (202006210289). The contributions of Y.L. were supported through US National Science Foundation DEB 1655499 and 2242034, subcontract CW39470 from Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to Cornell University, DOE De-SC0023514, and the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture. S.M. has received funding from the ERC under the European Union’s H2020 Research and Innovation Programme (101001608). The contributions of U.M. were supported through a US Department of Energy grant to the Sandia National Laboratories, which is a multi-mission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International, Inc., for the US Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA-0003525. We thank the WoSIS database ( https://www.isric.org/explore/wosis ) for providing the publicly available global-scale SOC database used in this study. Publisher Copyright: © 2023, The Author(s).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Great uncertainties in modeling grazing impact on carbon sequestration: a multi-model inter-comparison in temperate Eurasian Steppe

The impact of grazing activity on terrestrial carbon (C) sequestration has been noticed and studied worldwide. Recent efforts have been made to incorporate the disturbance into process-based land models. However, the performance of grazing models has not been well investigated at large scales. In this study, we performed a spatially explicit model uncertainty assessment in the world's largest pasture ecosystem, the temperate Eurasian Steppe. Five grazing models were explicitly incorporated into a single terrestrial biogeochemical model to simulate regional C consumption from grazing activity (Cgraze). First, we summarized the underlying mechanisms and explicitly compared the general functions used to describe the processes in different models. Then, the models (five models with 12 simulations) were run in parallel using the same forcing data and livestock distribution map in 2006. Results indicated that the modeled regional Cgraze varied from 0.1–16.1 gC m−2 for the year. The corresponding ratios of Cgraze to aboveground net primary productivity ANPP and net primary productivity (NPP) ranged from 0.08%–24.6% and 0.028%–11.2%, respectively. Parameter sensitivity was further analyzed. Model outputs are highly sensitive to the intake rate (i.e. feeding rate of livestock per day), half maximum intake rate, and initial livestock weight. Our results indicate that great uncertainty exists in simulating Cgraze. We ascribed the major uncertainty to the different process description and poor parameterization. This study calls for more efforts to the comprehensive synthesis of usable dataset, the foundation of a standard observation system and the observe-based inter-comparison to evaluate models, which would facilitate more accurate assessment of C sequestration by pasture ecosystems and lead to better representation in earth system models

Matrix Approach to Accelerate Spin‐Up of CLM5

Abstract Numerical models have been developed to investigate and understand responses of biogeochemical cycle to global changes. Steady state, when a system is in dynamic equilibrium, is generally required to initialize these model simulations. However, the spin‐up process that is used to achieve steady state pose a great burden to computational resources, limiting the efficiency of global modeling analysis on biogeochemical cycles. This study introduces a new Semi‐Analytical Spin‐Up (SASU) to tackle this grand challenge. We applied SASU to Community Land Model version 5 and examined its computational efficiency and accuracy. At the Brazil site, SASU is computationally 7 times more efficient than (or saved up to 86% computational cost in comparison with) the traditional native dynamics (ND) spin‐up to reach the same steady state. Globally, SASU is computationally 8 times more efficient than the accelerated decomposition spin‐up and 50 times more efficient than ND. In summary, SASU achieves the highest computational efficiency for spin‐up on site and globally in comparison with other spin‐up methods. It is generalizable to wide biogeochemical models and thus makes computationally costly studies (e.g., parameter perturbation ensemble analysis and data assimilation) possible for a better understanding of biogeochemical cycle under climate change

Estimates of daily ground-level NO2 concentrations in China based on Random Forest model integrated K-means

Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is one of the most important atmospheric pollutants and the precursors of acid rain, tropospheric ozone, and atmospheric aerosols. However, due to the poor quality of source data and the computing power of the models, current ground-level NO2 concentration data lack either high-resolution coverage or full nation-wide coverage. This study estimates the ground-level NO2 concentration in China with national coverage at relatively high spatiotemporal resolution (0.25°; daily intervals) over the newest past 6 years (2013–2018). We developed an advanced model, named Random Forest model integrated K-means (RF-K), for the estimates with multi-source parameters. Besides meteorological parameters, satellite retrievals parameters, and anthropogenic emission inventories parameters, we also innovatively introduce socioeconomic parameters to assess the impact of human activities. Our results show that: (1) the RF-K model developed by us shows better prediction performance than others. (2) the annual average NO2 concentration of China showed a weak declining trend (-0.013±0.217 μgm−3yr−1) from 2013 to 2018, indicating that pollutant controlling targets had been achieved in China overall. By mapping daily nationwide ground-level NO2 concentrations, this study provides high-quality timely, and detailed data for air quality management and epidemiological analyses for China. The RF-K model can be used easily for other pollutants (e.g. SO2 and O3) considering that their ground-level concentrations can be estimated depending on the similar emitting sources and influence factors, and our model's input data sources also cover information on other pollutants

Matrix Approach to Land Carbon Cycle Modeling

Land ecosystems contribute to climate change mitigation by taking up approximately 30% of anthropogenically emitted carbon. However, estimates of the amount and distribution of carbon uptake across the world's ecosystems or biomes display great uncertainty. The latter hinders a full understanding of the mechanisms and drivers of land carbon uptake, and predictions of the future fate of the land carbon sink. The latter is needed as evidence to inform climate mitigation strategies such as afforestation schemes. To advance land carbon cycle modeling, we have developed a matrix approach. Land carbon cycle models use carbon balance equations to represent carbon exchanges among pools. Our approach organizes this set of equations into a single matrix equation without altering any processes of the original model. The matrix equation enables the development of a theoretical framework for understanding the general, transient behavior of the land carbon cycle. While carbon input and residence time are used to quantify carbon storage capacity at steady state, a third quantity, carbon storage potential, integrates fluxes with time to define dynamic disequilibrium of the carbon cycle under global change. The matrix approach can help address critical contemporary issues in modeling, including pinpointing sources of model uncertainty and accelerating spin-up of land carbon cycle models by tens of times. The accelerated spin-up liberates models from the computational burden that hinders comprehensive parameter sensitivity analysis and assimilation of observational data to improve model accuracy. Such computational efficiency offered by the matrix approach enables substantial improvement of model predictions using ever-increasing data availability. Overall, the matrix approach offers a step change forward for understanding and modeling the land carbon cycle

Image_12_Genome-Wide Association Studies of 11 Agronomic Traits in Cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz).TIF

<p>Cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz) is a major tuberous crop produced worldwide. In this study, we sequenced 158 diverse cassava varieties and identified 349,827 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and indels. In each chromosome, the number of SNPs and the physical length of the respective chromosome were in agreement. Population structure analysis indicated that this panel can be divided into three subgroups. Genetic diversity analysis indicated that the average nucleotide diversity of the panel was 1.21 × 10^-4 for all sampled landraces. This average nucleotide diversity was 1.97 × 10^-4, 1.01 × 10^-4, and 1.89 × 10^-4 for subgroups 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Genome-wide linkage disequilibrium (LD) analysis demonstrated that the average LD was about ∼8 kb. We evaluated 158 cassava varieties under 11 different environments. Finally, we identified 36 loci that were related to 11 agronomic traits by genome-wide association analyses. Four loci were associated with two traits, and 62 candidate genes were identified in the peak SNP sites. We found that 40 of these genes showed different expression profiles in different tissues. Of the candidate genes related to storage roots, Manes.13G023300, Manes.16G000800, Manes.02G154700, Manes.02G192500, and Manes.09G099100 had higher expression levels in storage roots than in leaf and stem; on the other hand, of the candidate genes related to leaves, Manes.05G164500, Manes.05G164600, Manes.04G057300, Manes.01G202000, and Manes.03G186500 had higher expression levels in leaves than in storage roots and stem. This study provides basis for research on genetics and the genetic improvement of cassava.</p

Matrix Approach to Land Carbon Cycle Modeling

Land ecosystems contribute to climate change mitigation by taking up approximately 30% of anthropogenically emitted carbon. However, estimates of the amount and distribution of carbon uptake across the world's ecosystems or biomes display great uncertainty. The latter hinders a full understanding of the mechanisms and drivers of land carbon uptake, and predictions of the future fate of the land carbon sink. The latter is needed as evidence to inform climate mitigation strategies such as afforestation schemes. To advance land carbon cycle modeling, we have developed a matrix approach. Land carbon cycle models use carbon balance equations to represent carbon exchanges among pools. Our approach organizes this set of equations into a single matrix equation without altering any processes of the original model. The matrix equation enables the development of a theoretical framework for understanding the general, transient behavior of the land carbon cycle. While carbon input and residence time are used to quantify carbon storage capacity at steady state, a third quantity, carbon storage potential, integrates fluxes with time to define dynamic disequilibrium of the carbon cycle under global change. The matrix approach can help address critical contemporary issues in modeling, including pinpointing sources of model uncertainty and accelerating spin-up of land carbon cycle models by tens of times. The accelerated spin-up liberates models from the computational burden that hinders comprehensive parameter sensitivity analysis and assimilation of observational data to improve model accuracy. Such computational efficiency offered by the matrix approach enables substantial improvement of model predictions using ever-increasing data availability. Overall, the matrix approach offers a step change forward for understanding and modeling the land carbon cycle