A Bayesian approach for inferring the dynamics of partially observed endemic infectious diseases from space-time-genetic data

We describe a statistical framework for reconstructing the sequence of transmission events between observed cases of an endemic infectious disease using genetic, temporal and spatial information. Previous approaches to reconstructing transmission trees have assumed all infections in the study area originated from a single introduction and that a large fraction of cases were observed. There are as yet no approaches appropriate for endemic situations in which a disease is already well established in a host population and in which there may be multiple origins of infection, or that can enumerate unobserved infections missing from the sample. Our proposed framework addresses these shortcomings, enabling reconstruction of partially observed transmission trees and estimating the number of cases missing from the sample. Analyses of simulated datasets show the method to be accurate in identifying direct transmissions, while introductions and transmissions via one or more unsampled intermediate cases could be identified at high to moderate levels of case detection. When applied to partial genome sequences of rabies virus sampled from an endemic region of South Africa, our method reveals several distinct transmission cycles with little contact between them, and direct transmission over long distances suggesting significant anthropogenic influence in the movement of infected dogs

On the equivalence of the self-dual and Maxwell-Chern-Simons models coupled to Fermions

We study the exact equivalence between the self-dual model minimally coupled with a Dirac field and the Maxwell-Chern-Simons model with non-minimal magnetic coupling to fermions. We show that the fermion sectors of the models are equivalent only if a Thirring like interaction is included. Using functional methods we verify that, up to renormalizations, the equivalence persists at the quantum level.Comment: 8 pages, revte

How important is the credit channel? An empirical study of the US banking crisis

We examine whether by adding a credit channel to the standard New Keynesian model we can account better for the behaviour of US macroeconomic data up to and including the banking crisis. We use the method of indirect inference which evaluates statistically how far a model's simulated behaviour mimics the behaviour of the data. We find that the model with credit dominates the standard model by a substantial margin. Credit shocks are the main contributor to the variation in the output gap during the crisis

The superspace geometry of gravitational Chern-Simons forms and their couplings to linear multiplets : a review

The superspace geometry of Chern-Simons forms is shown to be closely related to that of the 3-form multiplet. This observation allows to simplify considerably the geometric structure of supersymmetric Chern-Simons forms and their coupling to linear multiplets. The analysis is carried through in U_K(1) superspace, relevant at the same time for supergravity-matter couplings and for chirally extended supergravity.Comment: 82 pages, LateX2

Bosonization and Duality in Arbitrary Dimensions: New Results

A generic massive Thirring Model in three space-time dimensions exhibits a correspondence with a topologically massive bosonized gauge action associated to a self-duality constraint, and we write down a general expression for this relationship. We also generalize this structure to $d$ dimensions, by adopting the so-called doublet approach, recently introduced. In particular, a non- conventional formulation of the bosonization technique in higher dimensions (in the spirit of $d=3$), is proposed and, as an application, we show how fermionic (Thirring-like) representations for bosonic topologically massive models in four dimensions may be built up.Comment: Revised version, to appear in Phys. Rev.

On the measurement of inequalities in health

This paper offers a critical appraisal of the various methods employed to date to measure inequalities in health. It suggests that only two of these—the slope index of inequality and the concentration index—are likely to present an accurate picture of socioeconomic inequalities in health. The paper also presents several empirical examples to illustrate of the dangers of using other measures such as the range, the Lorenz curve and the index of dissimilarity

Emission-line stars discovered in the UKST H-alpha survey of the Large Magellanic Cloud; Part 1: Hot stars

We present new, accurate positions, spectral classifications, radial and rotational velocities, H-alpha fluxes, equivalent widths and B,V,I,R magnitudes for 579 hot emission-line stars (classes B0 - F9) in the Large Magellanic Cloud which include 469 new discoveries. Candidate emission line stars were discovered using a deep, high resolution H-alpha map of the central 25 deg2 of the LMC obtained by median stacking a dozen 2 hour H-alpha exposures taken with the UK Schmidt Telescope. Spectroscopic follow-up observations on the AAT, UKST, VLT, the SAAO 1.9m and the MSSSO 2.3m telescope have established the identity of these faint sources down to magnitude R~23 for H-alpha (4.5 x 10^-17 ergs cm^2 s^-1 Ang). Confirmed emission-line stars have been assigned an underlying spectral classification through cross-correlation against 131 absorption line template spectra covering the range O1 to F8. We confirm 111 previously identified emission line stars and 64 previously known variable stars with spectral types hotter than F8. The majority of hot stars identified (518 stars or 89%) are class B. Of all the hot emission-line stars in classes B-F, 130 or 22% are type B[e], characterised by the presence of forbidden emission lines such as [SII], [NII] and [OII]. We report on the physical location of these stars with reference to possible contamination from ambient HII emission. Along with flux calibration of the H-alpha emission we provide the first H-alpha luminosity function for selected sub-samples after correction for any possible nebula or ambient contamination. We find a moderate correlation between the intensity of H-alpha emission and the V magnitude of the central star based on SuperCOSMOS magnitudes and OGLE-II photometry where possible. Cool stars from classes G-S, with and without strong H-alpha emission, will be the focus of part 2 in this series.Comment: 24 pages (main paper) 36 figures, 6 tables; Appendix Tables: 22 pages, MNRAS, 201

Cyclic Variability of the Circumstellar Disc of the Be Star ζ\zeta Tau. II. Testing the 2D Global Disc Oscillation Model

Aims. In this paper we model, in a self-consistent way, polarimetric, photometric, spectrophotometric and interferometric observations of the classical Be star $\zeta$ Tauri. Our primary goal is to conduct a critical quantitative test of the global oscillation scenario. Methods. We have carried out detailed three-dimensional, NLTE radiative transfer calculations using the radiative transfer code HDUST. For the input for the code we have used the most up-to-date research on Be stars to include a physically realistic description for the central star and the circumstellar disc. We adopt a rotationally deformed, gravity darkened central star, surrounded by a disc whose unperturbed state is given by a steady-state viscous decretion disc model. We further assume that disc is in vertical hydrostatic equilibrium. Results. By adopting a viscous decretion disc model for $\zeta$ Tauri and a rigorous solution of the radiative transfer, we have obtained a very good fit of the time-average properties of the disc. This provides strong theoretical evidence that the viscous decretion disc model is the mechanism responsible for disc formation. With the global oscillation model we have successfully fitted spatially resolved VLTI/AMBER observations and the temporal V/R variations of the H$\alpha$ and Br$\gamma$ lines. This result convincingly demonstrates that the oscillation pattern in the disc is a one-armed spiral. Possible model shortcomings, as well as suggestions for future improvements, are also discussed.Comment: 14 pages, 9 figures, accepted to A&

Motion frozen 18F-FDG cardiac PET

BackgroundPET reconstruction incorporating spatially variant 3D Point Spread Function (PSF) improves contrast and image resolution. "Cardiac Motion Frozen" (CMF) processing eliminates the influence of cardiac motion in static summed images. We have evaluated the combined use of CMF- and PSF-based reconstruction for high-resolution cardiac PET.MethodsStatic and 16-bin ECG-gated images of 20 patients referred for (18)F-FDG myocardial viability scans were obtained on a Siemens Biograph-64. CMF was applied to the gated images reconstructed with PSF. Myocardium to blood contrast, maximum left ventricle (LV) counts to defect contrast, contrast-to-noise (CNR) and wall thickness with standard reconstruction (2D-AWOSEM), PSF, ED-gated PSF, and CMF-PSF were compared.ResultsThe measured wall thickness was 18.9 ± 5.2 mm for 2D-AWOSEM, 16.6 ± 4.5 mm for PSF, and 13.8 ± 3.9 mm for CMF-PSF reconstructed images (all P < .05). The CMF-PSF myocardium to blood and maximum LV counts to defect contrasts (5.7 ± 2.7, 10.0 ± 5.7) were higher than for 2D-AWOSEM (3.5 ± 1.4, 6.5 ± 3.1) and for PSF (3.9 ± 1.7, 7.7 ± 3.7) (CMF vs all other, P < .05). The CNR for CMF-PSF (26.3 ± 17.5) was comparable to PSF (29.1 ± 18.3), but higher than for ED-gated dataset (13.7 ± 8.8, P < .05).ConclusionCombined CMF-PSF reconstruction increased myocardium to blood contrast, maximum LV counts to defect contrast and maintained equivalent noise when compared to static summed 2D-AWOSEM and PSF reconstruction

On the maximal superalgebras of supersymmetric backgrounds

In this note we give a precise definition of the notion of a maximal superalgebra of certain types of supersymmetric supergravity backgrounds, including the Freund-Rubin backgrounds, and propose a geometric construction extending the well-known construction of its Killing superalgebra. We determine the structure of maximal Lie superalgebras and show that there is a finite number of isomorphism classes, all related via contractions from an orthosymplectic Lie superalgebra. We use the structure theory to show that maximally supersymmetric waves do not possess such a maximal superalgebra, but that the maximally supersymmetric Freund-Rubin backgrounds do. We perform the explicit geometric construction of the maximal superalgebra of AdS_4 x S^7 and find that is isomorphic to osp(1|32). We propose an algebraic construction of the maximal superalgebra of any background asymptotic to AdS_4 x S^7 and we test this proposal by computing the maximal superalgebra of the M2-brane in its two maximally supersymmetric limits, finding agreement.Comment: 17 page