Probabilistic solar wind and geomagnetic forecasting using an analogue ensemble or "Similar Day" approach

Effective space-weather prediction and mitigation requires accurate forecasting of near-Earth solar-wind conditions. Numerical magnetohydrodynamic models of the solar wind, driven by remote solar observations, are gaining skill at forecasting the large-scale solar-wind features that give rise to near-Earth variations over days and weeks. There remains a need for accurate short-term (hours to days) solar-wind forecasts, however. In this study we investigate the analogue ensemble (AnEn), or “similar day”, approach that was developed for atmospheric weather forecasting. The central premise of the AnEn is that past variations that are analogous or similar to current conditions can be used to provide a good estimate of future variations. By considering an ensemble of past analogues, the AnEn forecast is inherently probabilistic and provides a measure of the forecast uncertainty. We show that forecasts of solar-wind speed can be improved by considering both speed and density when determining past analogues, whereas forecasts of the out-of-ecliptic magnetic field [ BNBN ] are improved by also considering the in-ecliptic magnetic-field components. In general, the best forecasts are found by considering only the previous 6 – 12 hours of observations. Using these parameters, the AnEn provides a valuable probabilistic forecast for solar-wind speed, density, and in-ecliptic magnetic field over lead times from a few hours to around four days. For BNBN , which is central to space-weather disturbance, the AnEn only provides a valuable forecast out to around six to seven hours. As the inherent predictability of this parameter is low, this is still likely a marked improvement over other forecast methods. We also investigate the use of the AnEn in forecasting geomagnetic indices Dst and Kp. The AnEn provides a valuable probabilistic forecast of both indices out to around four days. We outline a number of future improvements to AnEn forecasts of near-Earth solar-wind and geomagnetic conditions

Assessing the quality of models of the ambient solar wind

In this paper we present an assessment of the status of models of the global Solar Wind in the inner heliosphere. We limit our discussion to the class of models designed to provide solar wind forecasts, excluding those designed for the purpose of testing physical processes in idealized configurations. In addition, we limit our discussion to modeling of the ‘ambient’ wind in the absence of coronal mass ejections. In this assessment we cover use of the models both in forecast mode and as tools for scientific research. We present a brief history of the development of these models, discussing the range of physical approximations in use. We discuss the limitations of the data inputs available to these models and its impact on their quality. We also discuss current model development trends

The Spin Structure of the Nucleon

We present an overview of recent experimental and theoretical advances in our understanding of the spin structure of protons and neutrons.Comment: 84 pages, 29 figure

Differences in inflammation and acute phase response but similar genotoxicity in mice following pulmonary exposure to graphene oxide and reduced graphene oxide

We investigated toxicity of 2-3 layered >1 μm sized graphene oxide (GO) and reduced graphene oxide (rGO) in mice following single intratracheal exposure with respect to pulmonary inflammation, acute phase response (biomarker for risk of cardiovascular disease) and genotoxicity. In addition, we assessed exposure levels of particulate matter emitted during production of graphene in a clean room and in a normal industrial environment using chemical vapour deposition. Toxicity was evaluated at day 1, 3, 28 and 90 days (18, 54 and 162 μg/mouse), except for GO exposed mice at day 28 and 90 where only the lowest dose was evaluated. GO induced a strong acute inflammatory response together with a pulmonary (Serum-Amyloid A, Saa3) and hepatic (Saa1) acute phase response. rGO induced less acute, but a constant and prolonged inflammation up to day 90. Lung histopathology showed particle agglomerates at day 90 without signs of fibrosis. In addition, DNA damage in BAL cells was observed across time points and doses for both GO and rGO. In conclusion, pulmonary exposure to GO and rGO induced inflammation, acute phase response and genotoxicity but no fibrosis

Permian high-temperature metamorphism in the Western Alps (NW Italy)

During the late Palaeozoic, lithospheric thinning in part of the Alpine realm caused high-temperature low-to-medium pressure metamorphism and partial melting in the lower crust. Permian metamorphism and magmatism has extensively been recorded and dated in the Central, Eastern, and Southern Alps. However, Permian metamorphic ages in the Western Alps so far are constrained by very few and sparsely distributed data. The present study fills this gap. We present U/Pb ages of metamorphic zircon from several Adria-derived continental units now situated in the Western Alps, defining a range between 286 and 266 Ma. Trace element thermometry yields temperatures of 580-890°C from Ti-in-zircon and 630-850°C from Zr-in-rutile for Permian metamorphic rims. These temperature estimates, together with preserved mineral assemblages (garnet-prismatic sillimanite-biotite-plagioclase-quartz-K-feldspar-rutile), define pervasive upper-amphibolite to granulite facies conditions for Permian metamorphism. U/Pb ages from this study are similar to Permian ages reported for the Ivrea Zone in the Southern Alps and Austroalpine units in the Central and Eastern Alps. Regional comparison across the former Adriatic and European margin reveals a complex pattern of ages reported from late Palaeozoic magmatic and metamorphic rocks (and relics thereof): two late Variscan age groups (~330 and ~300 Ma) are followed seamlessly by a broad range of Permian ages (300-250 Ma). The former are associated with late-orogenic collapse; in samples from this study these are weakly represented. Clearly, dominant is the Permian group, which is related to crustal thinning, hinting to a possible initiation of continental rifting along a passive margin

Diverse Applications of Nanomedicine

The design and use of materials in the nanoscale size range for addressing medical and health-related issues continues to receive increasing interest. Research in nanomedicine spans a multitude of areas, including drug delivery, vaccine development, antibacterial, diagnosis and imaging tools, wearable devices, implants, high-throughput screening platforms, etc. using biological, nonbiological, biomimetic, or hybrid materials. Many of these developments are starting to be translated into viable clinical products. Here, we provide an overview of recent developments in nanomedicine and highlight the current challenges and upcoming opportunities for the field and translation to the clinic. \ua9 2017 American Chemical Society